The benefits of tree-based models for stock selection

The identification of the primary drivers of stock returns has been of great interest to both financial practitioners and academics alike for many decades. Influenced by classical financial theories such as the CAPM (Sharp, 1964; Lintner, 1965) and APT (Ross, 1976), a linear relationship is conventionally assumed between company characteristics as derived from their financial accounts and forward returns. Whilst this assumption may be a fair approximation to the underlying structural relationship, it is often adopted for the purpose of convenience. It is actually quite rare that the assumptions of distributional normality and a linear relationship are explicitly assessed in advance even though this information would help to inform the appropriate choice of modelling technique. Non-linear models have nevertheless been applied successfully to the task of stock selection in the past (Sorensen et al, 2000). However, their take-up by the investment community has been limited despite the fact that researchers in other fields have found them to be a useful way to express knowledge and aid decision-making...

Wolbachia-mediated resistance to dengue virus infection and death at the cellular level

Dengue is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease of humans. Recent work has shown dengue virus displays limited replication in its primary vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, when the insect harbors the endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia pipientis. Wolbachia-mediated inhibition of virus replication may lead to novel methods of arboviral control, yet the functional and cellular mechanisms that underpin it are unknown.

Pedigree-free animal models : the relatedness matrix reloaded

Animal models typically require a known genetic pedigree to estimate quantitative genetic parameters. Here we test whether animal models can alternatively be based on estimates of relatedness derived entirely from molecular marker data. Our case study is the morphology of a wild bird population, for which we report estimates of the genetic variance-covariance matrices (G) of six morphological traits using three methods: the traditional animal model; a molecular marker-based approach to estimate heritability based on Ritland's pairwise regression method; and a new approach using a molecular genealogy arranged in a relatedness matrix (R) to replace the pedigree in an animal model. Using the traditional animal model, we found significant genetic variance for all six traits and positive genetic covariance among traits. The pairwise regression method did not return reliable estimates of quantitative genetic parameters in this population, with estimates of genetic variance and covariance typically being very small or negative. In contrast, we found mixed evidence for the use of the pedigree-free animal model. Similar to the pairwise regression method, the pedigree-free approach performed poorly when the full-rank R matrix based on the molecular genealogy was employed. However, performance improved substantially when we reduced the dimensionality of the R matrix in order to maximize the signal to noise ratio. Using reduced-rank R matrices generated estimates of genetic variance that were much closer to those from the traditional model. Nevertheless, this method was less reliable at estimating covariances, which were often estimated to be negative. Taken together, these results suggest that pedigree-free animal models can recover quantitative genetic information, although the signal remains relatively weak. It remains to be determined whether this problem can be overcome by the use of a more powerful battery of molecular markers and improved methods for reconstructing genealogies.

Comparison and modification of car following models toward a more accurate microscopic simulation parameters reproduction

Traffic safety studies demand more than what current micro-simulation models can provide as they presume that all drivers of motor vehicles exhibit safe behaviours. Several car-following models are used in various micro-simulation models. This research compares the mainstream car following models’ capabilities of emulating precise driver behaviour parameters such as headways and Time to Collisions. The comparison firstly illustrates which model is more robust in the metric reproduction. Secondly, the study conducted a series of sensitivity tests to further explore the behaviour of each model. Based on the outcome of these two steps exploration of the models, a modified structure and parameters adjustment for each car-following model is proposed to simulate more realistic vehicle movements, particularly headways and Time to Collision, below a certain critical threshold. NGSIM vehicle trajectory data is used to evaluate the modified models performance to assess critical safety events within traffic flow. The simulation tests outcomes indicate that the proposed modified models produce better frequency of critical Time to Collision than the generic models, while the improvement on the headway is not significant. The outcome of this paper facilitates traffic safety assessment using microscopic simulation.

GABAergic modification of myopic and hyperopic ocular tissue effects on scleral fibroblast growth

Purpose: Myopia is a common eye disorder affecting up to 90% of children in South East Asia and 30% of the population worldwide. Myopia of high severity is a leading cause of blindness around the world (4th to 5th most common). Changes and remodelling of the sclera i.e. increase cellular proliferation & increase protein synthesis within scleral cells (↑ scleral DNA) and thinning and lose of extracellular matrix of sclera (↓ scleral GAG synthesis) have been linked to myopic eye growth in animal models. Signals acting on the sclera are thought to originate in the retina, and are modulated by the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) with limited evidence suggesting that the RPE can modify scleral cell growth in culture. However, the mechanism of retinal signal transmission and the role of posterior eye cup tissue, including the RPE, in mediating changes in scleral fibroblast growth during myopia development are unclear. Retinal transmitter systems are critically involved in pathways regulating eye growth, which ultimately lead to alterations in the sclera if eye size is to change. A dopaminergic agonist and muscarinic antagonists decrease the proliferation of scleral chondrocytes when co-cultured with chick’s retinal pigment epithelium (RPE). GABA receptors have recently been localised to chick sclera. We therefore hypothesised that posterior eye cup tissue from myopic eyes would stimulate and from hyperopic eyes would inhibit growth of scleral fibroblasts in vitro and that GABAergic agents could directly interact with scleral cells or indirectly modify the effects of myopic and hyperopic posterior eye cup tissue on scleral fibroblast growth. Method: Fibroblastic cells obtained from 8-day-old chick sclera were used to establish cell banks. Two major experiments were performed. Experiment 1: To determine if posterior eye cup tissues from myopic eye stimulates and hyperopic eye inhibits scleral cell proliferation, when co-cultured with scleral cells in vitro. This study comprised two linked experiments, i) monocular visual treatments of FDM (form-deprivation myopia), LIM (lens-induced myopia) and LIH (lens-induced hyperopia) with assessment of the effect of full punch eye cup tissue on DNA and GAG synthesis by cultured chick scleral fibroblasts, and ii) binocular visual treatments comprising LIM and LIH with assessment of the effect of individual layers of eye cup tissues (neural retina, RPE and choroid) on cultured chick scleral fibroblasts. Visual treatment was applied for 3 days. Experiment 2: To determine the direct interaction of GABA agents on scleral cell growth and to establish whether GABA agents modify the stimulatory/inhibitory effect of myopic and hyperopic posterior eye cup tissues on cultured scleral cell growth in vitro. Two linked experiments were performed. i) GABA agonists (muscimol and baclofen) and GABA antagonists (bicuculine (-), CGP46381 and TPMPA) were added to scleral cell culture medium to determine their direct effect on scleral cells. ii) GABAergic agents (agonists and antagonists) were administered to scleral fibroblasts co-cultured with posterior eye cup tissue (retina, RPE, retina/RPE, RPE/choroid). Ocular tissues were obtained from chick eyes wearing +15D (LIH) or -15D lenses (LIM) for 3 days. In both experiments, tissues were added to hanging cell culture insert (pore size 1.0ìm) placed over each well of 24 well plates while scleral cells were cultured in DMEM/F12, Glutamax (Gibco) plus 10% FBS and penicillin/streptomycin (50U/ml)) and fungizone (1.25ug/ml) (Gibco), at seeding density of 30,000 cells/well at the bottom of the well and allowed to grow for 3 days. Scleral cells proliferation rate throughout the study was evaluated by determining GAG and DNA content of scleral cells using Dimethylmethylene blue (DMMB) dye and Quant-iTTm Pico Green® dsDNA reagent respectively. Results and analysis: Based on DNA and GAG content, there was no significant difference in tissue effect of LIM and LIH eyes on scleral fibroblast growth (DNA: 8.4 ± 1.1μg versus 9.3 ± 2.3 μg, p=0.23; GAG: 10.13 ± 1.4 μg versus 12.67 ± 1.2 μg, F2,23=6.16, p=0.0005) when tissues were obtained from monocularly treated chick eyes (FDM or +15D lens or -15D lens over right eyes with left eyes untreated) and co-cultured as full punch. When chick eyes were treated binocularly with -15D lens (LIM) right eye and +15D lens (LIH) left eyes and tissue layers were separated, the retina from LIM eyes did not stimulate scleral cell proliferation compared to LIH eyes (DNA: 27.2 ± 6.7 μg versus 23.2 ± 1.5 μg, p=0.23; GAG: 28.1 ±3.7 μg versus 28.7 ± 4.2 μg, p=0.21). Similarly, the LIH and LIM choroid did not produce a differential effect based on DNA (LIM 46.9 ± 6.4 μg versus LIH 53.5 ± 4.7 μg, p=0.18), however the choroid from LIH eyes induced higher scleral GAG content than from LIM eyes (32.5 ± 6.7 μg versus 18.9 ± 1.2 μg, p=0.023). In contrast, the RPE from LIM eyes caused a significant increase in fibroblast proliferation whereas the RPE from LIH eyes was relatively inhibitory (72.4 ± 6.3 μg versus 27.9 ± 2.3 μg, F1, 6=69.99, p=0.0005). GAG data were opposite to DNA data e.g. the RPE from LIH eyes increased (33.7 ± 7.9 μg) while the RPE from LIM eyes decreased (28.2 ± 3.0 μg) scleral cell growth (F1, 6=13.99, p=0.010). Based on DNA content, GABA agents had a small direct effect on scleral cell growth; GABA agonists increased (21.4 ± 1.0% and 18.3 ± 1.0% with muscimol and baclofen, p=0.0021), whereas GABA antagonists decreased fibroblast proliferation (-23.7 ± 0.9% with bicuculine & CGP46381 and -28.1 ± 0.5% with TPMPA, p=0.0004). GABA agents also modified the effect of LIM and LIH tissues (p=0.0005).The increase in proliferation rate of scleral fibroblasts co-cultured with tissues (RPE, retina, RPE/retina and RPE/choroid) from LIM treated eyes was enhanced by GABA agonists (muscimol: 27.4 ± 1.2%, 35.8 ± 1.6%, 8.4 ± 0.3% and 11.9 ± 0.6%; baclofen: 27.0 ± 1.0%, 15.8 ± 1.5%, 16.8 ± 1.2% and 15.4 ± 0.4%, p=0.014) whereas GABA antagonists further reduced scleral fibroblasts growth (bicuculine: -52.5 ± 2.5%, -36.9 ± 1.4%, -37.5 ± 0.6% and -53.7 ± 0.9%; TPMPA: 57.3 ± 1.3%, -15.7 ± 1.2%, -33.5 ± 0.4% and -45.9 ± 1.5%; CGP46381: -51.9 ± 1.6%, -28.5 ± 1.5%, -25.4 ± 2.0% and -45.5 ± 1.9% respectively, p=0.0034). GAG data were opposite to DNA data throughout the experiment e.g. GABA agonists further inhibited while antagonists relatively enhanced scleral fibroblasts growth for both LIM and LIH tissue co-culture. The effect of GABA agents was relatively lower (p=0.0004) for tissue from LIH versus LIM eyes but was in a similar direction. There was a significant drug effect on all four tissue types e.g. RPE, retina, RPE/retina and RPE/choroid for both LIM and LIH tissue co-culture (F20,92=3.928, p=0.0005). However, the effect of GABA agents was greatest in co-culture with RPE tissue (F18,36=4.865, p=0.0005). Summary and Conclusion: 1) Retinal defocus signals are transferred to RPE and choroid which then exert their modifying effect on scleral GAG and DNA synthesis either through growth stimulating factors or directly interacting with scleral cells in process of scleral remodeling during LIM and LIH visual conditions. 2) GABAergic agents affect the proliferation of scleral fibroblasts both directly and when co-cultured with ocular tissues in vitro.

A visual language for the collaborative visualization of integrated conceptual models in product development scenarios

In various industrial and scientific fields, conceptual models are derived from real world problem spaces to understand and communicate containing entities and coherencies. Abstracted models mirror the common understanding and information demand of engineers, who apply conceptual models for performing their daily tasks. However, most standardized models in Process Management, Product Lifecycle Management and Enterprise Resource Planning lack of a scientific foundation for their notation. In collaboration scenarios with stakeholders from several disciplines, tailored conceptual models complicate communication processes, as a common understanding is not shared or implemented in specific models. To support direct communication between experts from several disciplines, a visual language is developed which allows a common visualization of discipline-specific conceptual models. For visual discrimination and to overcome visual complexity issues, conceptual models are arranged in a three-dimensional space. The visual language introduced here follows and extends established principles of Visual Language science.

Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems

Dengue fever is one of the world’s most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many factors including urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative techniques are primarily based on controlling mosquito vectors as other prophylactic measures, such as a tetravalent vaccine are unlikely to be available in the foreseeable future. However, the continually increasing dengue incidence suggests that this strategy alone is not sufficient. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of accurately predicting disease outbreaks. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

How do allied health professionals evaluate new models of care? What are we measuring and why?

The aim of this study was to identify what outcome measures or quality indicators are being used to evaluate advanced and new roles in nine allied health professions and whether the measures are evaluating outcomes of interest to the patient, the clinician, or the healthcare provider. A systematic search strategy was used. Medical and allied health databases were searched and relevant articles extracted. Relevant studies with at least 1 outcome measure were evaluated. A total of 106 articles were identified that described advanced roles, however, only 23 of these described an outcome measure in sufficient detail to be included for review. The majority of the reported measures fit into the economic and process categories. The most reported outcome related to patients was satisfaction surveys. Measures of patient health outcomes were infrequently reported. It is unclear from the studies evaluated whether new models of allied healthcare can be shown to be as safe and effective as traditional care for a given procedure. Outcome measures chosen to evaluate these services often reflect organizational need and not patient outcomes. Organizations need to ensure that high-quality performance measures are chosen to evaluate the success of new health service innovations. There needs to be a move away from in-house type surveys that add little or no valid evidence as to the effect of a new innovation. More importance needs to be placed on patient outcomes as a measure of the quality of allied health interventions.

A coupled SPH-DEM model for fluid and solid mechanics of apple parenchyma cells during drying

A coupled SPH-DEM based two-dimensional (2-D) micro-scale single cell model is developed to predict basic cell-level shrinkage effects of apple parenchyma cells during air drying. In this newly developed drying model, Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) is used to model the low Reynolds Number fluid motions of the cell protoplasm, and a Discrete Element Method (DEM) is employed to simulate the polymer-like cell wall. Simulations results reasonably agree with published experimental drying results on cellular shrinkage properties such as cellular area, diameter and perimeter. These preliminary results indicate that the model is effective for the modelling and simulation of apple parenchyma cells during air drying.

A particle-based micromechanics approach to simulate structural changes of plant cells during drying

This paper is concerned with applying a particle-based approach to simulate the micro-level cellular structural changes of plant cells during drying. The objective of the investigation was to relate the micro-level structural properties such as cell area, diameter and perimeter to the change of moisture content of the cell. Model assumes a simplified cell which consists of two basic components, cell wall and cell fluid. The cell fluid is assumed to be a Newtonian fluid with higher viscosity compared to water and cell wall is assumed to be a visco-elastic solid boundary located around the cell fluid. Cell fluid is modelled with Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) technique and for the cell wall; a Discrete Element Method (DEM) is used. The developed model is two-dimensional, but accounts for three-dimensional physical properties of real plant cells. Drying phenomena is simulated as fluid mass reductions and the model is used to predict the above mentioned structural properties as a function of cell fluid mass. Model predictions are found to be in fairly good agreement with experimental data in literature and the particle-based approach is demonstrated to be suitable for numerical studies of drying related structural deformations. Also a sensitivity analysis is included to demonstrate the influence of key model parameters to model predictions.

Emergency Health Services (EHS) : demand and service delivery models. [Monograph 2 : Queensland EHS users’ profile]

Emergency health is a critical component of Australia’s health system and one which is increasingly congested from growing demand and blocked access to inpatient beds. The Emergency Health Services Queensland (EHSQ) study aims to identify the factors driving increased demand for emergency health and to evaluate strategies which may safely reduce the future demand growth. This monograph addresses the characteristics of users of emergency health services with an aim to identify those that appear to contribute to demand growth. This study utilises data on patients treated by Emergency Departments (ED) and Queensland Ambulance Service (QAS) across Queensland. ED data was derived from the Emergency Department Information System (EDIS) for the period 2001-02 through to 2010-11. Ambulance data was extracted from the QAS’ Ambulance Information Management System (AIMS) and electronic Ambulance Report Form (eARF) for the period 2001-02 through to 2009-10. Due to discrepancies and comparability issues for ED data, this monograph compares data from the 2003-04 time period with 2010-11 data for 21 of the reporting EDs. Also a snapshot of users for the 2010-11 financial year for 31 reporting EDs is used to describe the characteristics of users and to compare those characteristics with population demographics. For QAS data, the 2002-03 and 2009-10 time periods were selected for detailed analyses to identify trends. • Demand for emergency health care services is increasing, representing both increased population and increased relative utilisation. Per capita demand for ED attention has increased by 2% per annum over the last decade and for ambulance attention by 3.7% per annum. • The growth in ED demand is prominent in more urgent triage categories with actual decline in less urgent patients. An estimated 55% of patients attend hospital EDs outside of normal working hours. There is no evidence that patients presenting out of hours are significantly different to those presenting within working hours; they have similar triage assessments and outcomes. • Patients suffering from injuries and poisoning comprise 28% of the ED workload (an increase of 65% in the study period), whilst declines of 32% in cardiovascular and circulatory conditions, and musculoskeletal problems have been observed. • 25.6% of patients attending EDs are admitted to hospital. 19% of admitted patients and 7% of patients who die in the ED are triage category 4 or 5 on arrival. • The average age of ED patients is 35.6 years. Demand has grown in all age groups and amongst both men and women. Men have higher utilisation rates for ED in all age groups. The only group where the growth rate in women has exceeded men is in the 20-29 age group; this growth is particularly in the injury and poisoning categories. • Considerable attention has been paid publicly to ED performance criteria. It is worth noting that 50% of all patients were treated within 33 minutes of arrival. • Patients from lower socioeconomic areas appear to have higher utilisation rates and the utilisation rate for indigenous people appears to exceed those of European and other backgrounds. The utilisation rates for immigrant people is generally less than that of Australian born however it has not been possible to eliminate the confounding impact of different age and socioeconomic profiles. • Demand for ambulance service is also increasing at a rate that exceeds population growth. Utilisation rates have increased by an average of 5% per annum in Queensland compared to 3.6% nationally, and the utilisation rate in Queensland is 27% higher than the national average. • The growth in ambulance utilisation has also been amongst the more urgent categories of dispatch and utilisation rates are higher in rural and regional areas than in the metropolitan area. The demand for ambulance increases with age but the growth in demand for ambulance service has been more prominent in younger age groups. These findings contribute significantly to an understanding of the growth in demand for emergency health. It shows that the growth is amongst patients in genuine need of emergency healthcare and public rhetoric that the congestion of emergency health services is due to inappropriate attendees is unable to be substantiated. The consistency of the growth in demand over the last decade reflects not only the changing demographics of the Australian population but also the changes in health status, standards of acute health care and other social factors. The growth is also amongst patients with acute injury and poisoning which is inconsistent with rates of chronic disease as a fundamental driver. We have also interviewed patients in regard to their decision making choices for acute health care and the factors that influence these decisions and this will be the subject of a third Monograph and publications.

Stromal upregulation of lateral epithelial adhesions : gene expression analysis of signalling pathways in prostate epithelium

BACKGROUND: Stromal signalling increases the lateral cell adhesions of prostate epithelial cells grown in 3D culture. The aim of this study was to use microarray analysis to identify significant epithelial signalling pathways and genes in this process. METHODS: Microarray analysis was used to identify genes that were differentially expressed when epithelial cells were grown in 3D Matrigel culture with stromal co-culture compared to without stroma. Two culture models were employed: primary epithelial cells (ten samples) and an epithelial cell line (three experiments). A separate microarray analysis was performed on each model system and then compared to identify tissue-relevant genes in a cell line model. RESULTS: TGF beta signalling was significantly ranked for both model systems and in both models the TGF beta signalling gene SOX4 was significantly down regulated. Analysis of all differentially expressed genes to identify genes that were common to both models found several morphology related gene clusters; actin binding (DIAPH2, FHOD3, ABLIM1, TMOD4, MYH10), GTPase activator activity (BCR, MYH10), cytoskeleton (MAP2, MYH10, TMOD4, FHOD3), protein binding (ITGA6, CD44), proteinaceous extracellular matrix (NID2, CILP2), ion channel/ ion transporter activity (CACNA1C, CACNB2, KCNH2, SLC8A1, SLC39A9) and genes associated with developmental pathways (POFUT1, FZD2, HOXA5, IRX2, FGF11, SOX4, SMARCC1). CONCLUSIONS: In 3D prostate cultures, stromal cells increase lateral epithelial cell adhesions. We show that this morphological effect is associated with gene expression changes to TGF beta signalling, cytoskeleton and anion activity.

Stroma regulates increased epithelial lateral cell adhesion in 3D culture : a role for actin/cadherin dynamics

BACKGROUND: Cell shape and tissue architecture are controlled by changes to junctional proteins and the cytoskeleton. How tissues control the dynamics of adhesion and cytoskeletal tension is unclear. We have studied epithelial tissue architecture using 3D culture models and found that adult primary prostate epithelial cells grow into hollow acinus-like spheroids. Importantly, when co-cultured with stroma the epithelia show increased lateral cell adhesions. To investigate this mechanism further we aimed to: identify a cell line model to allow repeatable and robust experiments; determine whether or not epithelial adhesion molecules were affected by stromal culture; and determine which stromal signalling molecules may influence cell adhesion in 3D epithelial cell cultures. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The prostate cell line, BPH-1, showed increased lateral cell adhesion in response to stroma, when grown as 3D spheroids. Electron microscopy showed that 9.4% of lateral membranes were within 20 nm of each other and that this increased to 54% in the presence of stroma, after 7 days in culture. Stromal signalling did not influence E-cadherin or desmosome RNA or protein expression, but increased E-cadherin/actin co-localisation on the basolateral membranes, and decreased paracellular permeability. Microarray analysis identified several growth factors and pathways that were differentially expressed in stroma in response to 3D epithelial culture. The upregulated growth factors TGFβ2, CXCL12 and FGF10 were selected for further analysis because of previous associations with morphology. Small molecule inhibition of TGFβ2 signalling but not of CXCL12 and FGF10 signalling led to a decrease in actin and E-cadherin co-localisation and increased paracellular permeability. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In 3D culture models, paracrine stromal signals increase epithelial cell adhesion via adhesion/cytoskeleton interactions and TGFβ2-dependent mechanisms may play a key role. These findings indicate a role for stroma in maintaining adult epithelial tissue morphology and integrity.

Gene transfer vectors targeted to human prostate cancer : do we need better preclinical testing systems?

Destruction of cancer cells by genetically modified viral and nonviral vectors has been the aim of many research programs. The ability to target cytotoxic gene therapies to the cells of interest is an essential prerequisite, and the treatment has always had the potential to provide better and more long-lasting therapy than existing chemotherapies. However, the potency of these infectious agents requires effective testing systems, in which hypotheses can be explored both in vitro and in vivo before the establishment of clinical trials in humans. The real prospect of off-target effects should be eliminated in the preclinical stage, if current prejudices against such therapies are to be overcome. In this review we have set out, using adenoviral vectors as a commonly used example, to discuss some of the key parameters required to develop more effective testing, and to critically assess the current cellular models for the development and testing of prostate cancer biotherapy. Only by developing models that more closely mirror human tissues will we be able to translate literature publications into clinical trials and hence into acceptable alternative treatments for the most commonly diagnosed cancer in humans.