Monetary policy misspecification in VAR models

We examine the effects of extracting monetary policy disturbances with semi-structural and structural VARs, using data generated bya limited participation model under partial accommodative and feedback rules. We find that, in general, misspecification is substantial: short run coefficients often have wrong signs; impulse responses and variance decompositions give misleadingrepresentations of the dynamics. Explanations for the results and suggestions for macroeconomic practice are provided.

Analysis of the genetic diversity in Metopolophium dirhodum (Walker) (Hemiptera, Aphididae) by RAPD markers

The emergence of host-races within aphids may constitute an obstacle to pest management by means of plant resistance. There are examples of host-races within cereals aphids, but their occurrence in Rose Grain Aphid, Metopolophium dirhodum (Walker, 1849), has not been reported yet. In this work, RAPD markers were used to assess effects of the hosts and geographic distance on the genetic diversity of M. dirhodum lineages. Twenty-three clones were collected on oats and wheat in twelve localitites of southern Brazil. From twenty-seven primers tested, only four primers showed polymorphisms. Fourteen different genotypes were revealed by cluster analysis. Five genotypes were collected only on wheat; seven only on oats and two were collected in both hosts. Genetic and geographical distances among all clonal lineages were not correlated. Analysis of molecular variance showed that some molecular markers are not randomly distributed among clonal lineages collected on oats and on wheat. These results suggest the existence of host-races within M. dirhodum, which should be further investigated using a combination of ecological and genetic data.

Structural changes in the US economy: is there a role for monetary policy?

This paper investigates the contribution of monetary policy to the changes in outputgrowth and inflation dynamics in the US. We identify a policy shock and a policy rule ina time-varying coefficients VAR using robust sign restrictions. The transmission of policyshocks has been relatively stable. The variance of the policy shock has decreased over time,but policy shocks account for a small fraction of the level and of the variations in inflationand output growth volatility and persistence. We find little evidence of a significant increasein the long run response of the interest rate to inflation. A more aggressive inflation policyin the 1970s would have produced large output growth costs.

Local volatility changes in the black-scholes model

In this paper we address a problem arising in risk management; namely the study of price variations of different contingent claims in the Black-Scholes model due to anticipating future events. The method we propose to use is an extension of the classical Vega index, i.e. the price derivative with respect to the constant volatility, in thesense that we perturb the volatility in different directions. Thisdirectional derivative, which we denote the local Vega index, will serve as the main object in the paper and one of the purposes is to relate it to the classical Vega index. We show that for all contingent claims studied in this paper the local Vega index can be expressed as a weighted average of the perturbation in volatility. In the particular case where the interest rate and the volatility are constant and the perturbation is deterministic, the local Vega index is an average of this perturbation multiplied by the classical Vega index. We also study the well-known goal problem of maximizing the probability of a perfect hedge and show that the speed of convergence is in fact dependent of the local Vega index.

Demographic and behavioral factors associated with adolescent pregnancy in Switzerland.

Switzerland has the lowest adolescent fertility rate in Western Europe. According to data collected in 1993 as part of the Swiss Multicentre Adolescent Survey on Health, 5% of 1,726 sexually active adolescents in a group of 3,993 15-20-year-old women enrolled in academic or vocational classes had ever been pregnant; most of these women (80%) had terminated their pregnancy. Adolescents who had ever been pregnant did not differ significantly from those who had not by demographic characteristics. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified seven factors associated with pregnancy: having had four or more sexual partners; not having used contraceptives at first intercourse; ever use of less-effective contraceptive methods; having used illicit drugs during the last 30 days; living apart from one's parents; recently experiencing stress; and perceiving a lack of future prospects.

Hyperhomocysteinemia is independently associated with albuminuria in the population-based CoLaus study.

Increased serum levels of homocysteine and uric acid have each been associated with cardiovascular risk. We analyzed whether homocysteine and uric acid were associated with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and albuminuria independently of each other. We also investigated the association of MTHFR polymorphisms related to homocysteine with albuminuria to get further insight into causality. This was a cross-sectional population-based study in Caucasians (n = 5913). Hyperhomocysteinemia was defined as total serum homocysteine ≥ 15 μmol/L. Albuminuria was defined as urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio > 30 mg/g. Uric acid was associated positively with homocysteine (r = 0.246 in men and r = 0.287 in women, P < 0.001). The prevalence of albuminuria increased across increasing homocysteine categories (from 6.4% to 17.3% in subjects with normal GFR and from 3.5% to 14.5% in those with reduced GFR, P for trend < 0.005). Hyperhomocysteinemia (OR = 2.22, 95% confidence interval: 1.60-3.08, P < 0.001) and elevated serum uric acid (OR = 1.27, 1.08-1.50, per 100 μmol/L, P = 0.004) were significantly associated with albuminuria, independently of hypertension and type 2 diabetes. The 2-fold higher risk of albuminuria associated with hyperhomocysteinemia was similar to the risk associated with hypertension or diabetes. MTHFR alleles related to higher homocysteine were associated with increased risk of albuminuria. In the general adult population, elevated serum homocysteine and uric acid were associated with albuminuria independently of each other and of renal function.

Trunk neuromuscular responses to a single whole-body vibration session in patients with chronic low back pain: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: Whole-body vibration (WBV) exercise is progressively adopted as an alternative therapeutic modality for enhancing muscle force and muscle activity via neurogenic potentiation. So far, possible changes in the recruitment patterns of the trunk musculature after WBV remain undetermined. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the short-term effects of a single WBV session on trunk neuromuscular responses in patients with chronic low back pain (cLBP) and healthy participants. METHODS: Twenty patients with cLBP and 21 healthy participants performed 10 trunk flexion-extensions before and after a single WBV session consisting of five 1-minute vibration sets. Surface electromyography (EMG) of erector spinae at L2-L3 and L4-L5 and lumbopelvic kinematic variables were collected during the trials. Data were analyzed using 2-way mixed analysis of variance models. RESULTS: The WBV session led to increased lumbar EMG activity during the flexion and extension phases but yielded no change in the quiet standing and fully flexed phases. Kinematic data showed a decreased contribution to the movement of the lumbar region in the second extension quartile. These effects were not different between patients with cLBP and healthy participants. CONCLUSIONS: Increased lumbar EMG activity after a single WBV session most probably results from potentiation effects of WBV on lumbar muscles reflex responses. Decreased EMG activity in full trunk flexion, usually observed in healthy individuals, was still present after WBV, suggesting that the ability of the spine stabilizing mechanisms to transfer the extension torque from muscles to passive structures was not affected.

Resting metabolic rate in six- to ten-year-old obese and nonobese children.

The resting metabolic rate (RMR) and body composition of 130 obese and nonobese prepubertal children, aged 6 to 10 years, were assessed by indirect calorimetry and skin-fold thickness, respectively. The mean (+/- SD) RMR was 4619 +/- 449 kJ.day-1 (164 +/- 31 kJ.kg body weight-1 x day-1) in the 62 boys and 4449 +/- 520 kJ.day-1 (147 +/- 32 kJ.kg body weight-1 x day-1) in the 68 girls. Fat-free mass was the best single predictor of RMR (R2 = 0.64; p < 0.001). Step-down multiple regression analysis, with independent variables such as age, gender, weight, and height, allowed several RMR predictive equations to be developed. An equation for boys is as follows: RMR (kJ.day-1) = 1287 + 28.6 x Weight(kg) + 23.6 x Height(cm) - 69.1 x Age(yr) (R2 = 0.58; p < 0.001). An equation for girls is as follows: RMR (kJ.day-1 = 1552 + 35.8 x Weight (kg) + 15.6 x Height (cm) - 36.3 x Age (yr) (R2 = 0.69; p < 0.001). Comparison between the measured RMR and that predicted by currently used formulas showed that most of these equations tended to overestimate the RMR of both genders, especially in overweight children.

Seasonality of insects in the semi-arid Caatinga of northeastern Brazil

Insects are essential to tropical ecosystems functioning. In semi-arid regions, the increase in abundance and/or activity (e.g. reproduction and foraging behavior) of insects is usually associated with climatic variables. The present study investigates which climatic variables are best predictors of insect abundance in an area of Caatinga in northeastern Brazil. Individuals were sampled for 24 months using Malaise and pitfall traps, and beating trays. A total of 58925 individuals belonging to 20 insect orders were collected. The most abundant orders were Hymenoptera, Diptera, Collembola and Coleoptera. Most orders studied showed a clear maximum abundance in the rainy season. Rainfall and humidity were the best predictors of insect abundance in the Caatinga. However, no climatic variable could explain Psocoptera and Blattodea variance in abundance/activity. Our results suggest that climatic changes associated with rainfall patterns in the Caatinga may affect ecosystem processes and services that depend direct or indirectly on insect abundance/activity.

Variance reduction methods for simulation of densities on Wiener space

We develop a general error analysis framework for the Monte Carlo simulationof densities for functionals in Wiener space. We also study variancereduction methods with the help of Malliavin derivatives. For this, wegive some general heuristic principles which are applied to diffusionprocesses. A comparison with kernel density estimates is made.

Causal assessment in finite extensive-form games

Two finite extensive-form games are empirically equivalent when theempirical distribution on action profiles generated by every behaviorstrategy in one can also be generated by an appropriately chosen behaviorstrategy in the other. This paper provides a characterization ofempirical equivalence. The central idea is to relate a game's informationstructure to the conditional independencies in the empirical distributionsit generates. We present a new analytical device, the influence opportunitydiagram of a game, describe how such a diagram is constructed for a givenextensive-form game, and demonstrate that it provides a complete summaryof the information needed to test empirical equivalence between two games.

Heidelberg Retina Tomograph in Glaucoma Case-finding

Purpose: To compare the disease classification using optic nerve head imaging against clinical examination combined with perimetry in the case-finding environment.Methods: During a glaucoma screening event at the University Hospital in Lausanne 148 attendees opted to undergo an extended screening exam consisting of perimetry with Octopus (Haag-Streit, Koeniz, Switzerland), tonometry, gonioscopy, slit-lamp optic nerve head examination and Heidelberg Retinal Tomorgraph (HRT, Heidelberg engineering). Classification criteria of an abnormal clinical exam consisted of a cup to disc ratio > 0.6, other disc abnormality (e.g. notching), closed angles, Van Herrick < ¼ and intraocular pressure >21mmHg. In perimetry a square root loss variance (sLV) >3.0 dB was considered abnormal. Those cases with both an abnormal clinical exam and abnormal perimetric results were considered to be glaucoma suspects. An abnormal HRT exam was a global Moorfields Regression Analysis (MRA) result of "outside normal limits". The results from the worse eye for each instrument are reported.Results: The mean age of the patients was 59.9 years (SD ±14.8years). 46 subjects failed the clinical exam. 55 subjects had sLV>3.0dB. 86 subjects failed one or more of the testing components, 21 subjects failed both the clinical exam and perimetry. Two cases of advanced glaucoma were diagnosed on the day of the event. 20 subjects were referred due to other ocular pathology (10 cataract; 2 AMD; 8 other). 16 subjects were outside normal limits with the HRT, of which 11 failed the clinical exam, 9 failed the perimetric exam and 7 failed all three. HRT had a sensitivity of 33% CI [15%,57%] with a specificity of 93% CI [87%,97%].Conclusions: HRT shows good specificity, however the low sensitivity makes it of limited use in the proposed case finding scenario.

Comparison of potential adjustment variables representing primary intellectual level in epidemiological studies on neurotoxicity

BACKGROUND: Primary intellectual abilities (PIA) are a confounder in epidemiological studies on neurotoxicity. A good measure of this confounder should be independent of age as PIA is an intrinsic ability. Furthermore, as PIA is related to health endpoints, any measure of PIA should reveal this association. This study is aimed at comparing vocabulary test, diploma and age at end of schooling properties as measures of PIA in a non-exposed population of workers. METHODS: The design was a cross-sectional study of 413 non-exposed workers (203 women and 210 men) selected from a health check-up center. The effect of age on the vocabulary score was assessed using an analysis of covariance adjusted for diploma. Relationships between neuropsychological performances and vocabulary score, diploma and end of schooling age were, respectively, assessed using multiple linear regressions adjusted for age and gender. RESULTS: Vocabulary score increased significantly with age, both for men and women. The increase was 0.14 word per year for women, and 0.18 word per year for men. The explained variance of the models evaluating the relationships between age at end of schooling, diploma, vocabulary test, and neuropsychological performances was quite similar for the three measures of PIA. CONCLUSIONS: Vocabulary score was found to be age-related, even after adjustment for diploma. No difference was found between these three variables in terms of their relationship to neuropsychological endpoints. Moreover, the literature shows that vocabulary test performances are influenced by exposure to neurotoxic agents. These results suggest that vocabulary score could be of interest for participants of similar ages and similar diplomas. Otherwise, the other two variables would be better PIA measures in neurotoxicology studies.

Theimpact of industry collaboration on research: Evidence from engineering academics in the UK

We study the impact of university-industry research collaborations on academicoutput, in terms of productivity and direction of research. We report findings froma longitudinal dataset on all the researchers from the engineering departments inthe UK in the last 20 years. We control for the endogeneity caused by the dynamicnature of research and the existence of reverse causality. Our results indicate thatresearchers with industrial links publish significantly more. Productivity, though,is higher for low levels of industry involvement. Moreover, growing ties with theindustry skew research towards a more applied approach.

Tying up the loose ends in simple correspondence analysis

Although correspondence analysis is now widely available in statistical software packages and applied in a variety of contexts, notably the social and environmental sciences, there are still some misconceptions about this method as well as unresolved issues which remain controversial to this day. In this paper we hope to settle these matters, namely (i) the way CA measures variance in a two-way table and how to compare variances between tables of different sizes, (ii) the influence, or rather lack of influence, of outliers in the usual CA maps, (iii) the scaling issue and the biplot interpretation of maps,(iv) whether or not to rotate a solution, and (v) statistical significance of results.