The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study

Despite the commonly held belief that aggregate data display short-run comovement, there has been little discussion about the econometric consequences of this feature of the data. We use exhaustive Monte-Carlo simulations to investigate the importance of restrictions implied by common-cyclical features for estimates and forecasts based on vector autoregressive models. First, we show that the ìbestî empirical model developed without common cycle restrictions need not nest the ìbestî model developed with those restrictions. This is due to possible differences in the lag-lengths chosen by model selection criteria for the two alternative models. Second, we show that the costs of ignoring common cyclical features in vector autoregressive modelling can be high, both in terms of forecast accuracy and efficient estimation of variance decomposition coefficients. Third, we find that the Hannan-Quinn criterion performs best among model selection criteria in simultaneously selecting the lag-length and rank of vector autoregressions.

The importance of Common-Cyclical Features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study (Preliminary Version)

Despite the belief, supported byrecentapplied research, thataggregate datadisplay short-run comovement, there has been little discussion about the econometric consequences ofthese data “features.” W e use exhaustive M onte-Carlo simulations toinvestigate theimportance ofrestrictions implied by common-cyclicalfeatures for estimates and forecasts based on vectorautoregressive and errorcorrection models. First, weshowthatthe“best” empiricalmodeldevelopedwithoutcommoncycles restrictions neednotnestthe“best” modeldevelopedwiththoserestrictions, duetothe use ofinformation criteria forchoosingthe lagorderofthe twoalternative models. Second, weshowthatthecosts ofignoringcommon-cyclicalfeatures inV A R analysis may be high in terms offorecastingaccuracy and e¢ciency ofestimates ofvariance decomposition coe¢cients. A lthough these costs are more pronounced when the lag orderofV A R modelsareknown, theyarealsonon-trivialwhenitis selectedusingthe conventionaltoolsavailabletoappliedresearchers. T hird, we…ndthatifthedatahave common-cyclicalfeatures andtheresearcherwants touseaninformationcriterium to selectthelaglength, theH annan-Q uinn criterium is themostappropriate, sincethe A kaike and theSchwarz criteriahave atendency toover- and under-predictthe lag lengthrespectivelyinoursimulations.

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. The data to be used consists of metal-commodity prices in a monthly frequency from 1957 to 2012 from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF on individual metal series. We will also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009) , which are available for download. Regarding short- and long-run comovement, we will apply the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature to build parsimonious VARs, which possibly entail quasi-structural relationships between different commodity prices and/or between a given commodity price and its potential demand determinants. These parsimonious VARs will be later used as forecasting models to be combined to yield metal-commodity prices optimal forecasts. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, we will use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. With the forecasts of a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we will apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. The main contribution of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding forecasting, we show that models incorporating (short-run) commoncycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation. Still, in most cases, forecast combination techniques outperform individual models.

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data, provided from 1900-2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009). We investigate short- and long-run comovement by applying the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. One of the main contributions of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, our main contribution is to show the benefits of forecast-combination techniques, which outperform individual-model forecasts - including the random-walk model. We use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates and functional forms to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. Using a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. Empirically, we show that models incorporating (short-run) common-cycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation.

Biological features of a puzzling symbiotic association between the hermit crab Dardanus insignis and the porcellanid crab Porcellana Sayana (Crustacea)

The symbiotic lifestyle is widespread among porcellanid crabs, which maintain ecological and co-evolutionary associations with annelid polychaetes, poriferans, cnidarians, echinoderms, gastropod. mollusks, and other crustaceans such as shrimps and hermit crabs, among others. We investigated the ecological association between the hermit crab Dardanus insignis and the porcellanid Porcellana sayana, in southeastern Brazil. Porcellanid crabs, hermit crabs, and available shells were collected monthly from July 2001 to June 2003, with a shrimp boat equipped with two double-rig trawl nets. The majority of P. sayana specimens were collected in shells occupied by D. insignis (96.6%); a few were found in empty shells (3.4%). The catch of both symbionts and hosts increased with increasing depth, with the highest occurrence at 35 m. The F. sayana crabs of various sizes could be found solitary or forming aggregations of up to 14 individuals per host, showing no sex or size segregation. In spite of the high diversity of shell species occupied by the hermit crabs and also available in the field, only a few of them were also utilized by P. sayana. The majority (93%) of shells utilized by P. sayana also hosted other symbiont species, constituting the basis of extensive symbiotic complexes. Thus, the ecological relationship between D. insignis and P. sayana may be classified as a non-obligate and non-specific symbiosis that may also involve other facultative organisms such as sea anemones. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structural features of the epididymal region of the domestic duck (Anas plathyrynchos)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

New features of Cuban endemic Pinguicula filifolia (Lentibulariaceae) and considerations on its habitat and ecology

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The use of software Mapavox for teaching graphics and games to blind and low vision students: a development through practices

Current policies on education to visually impaired point for a growing trend of including students with special educational needs in regular schools. However, most often this inclusion is not accompanied by an appropriate professional trained or infrastructure, which has been presented as a big problem for regular school teachers who have students with visual impairments in their classroom. Based on this situation, the Group of Extension in Tactile Cartography from UNESP - University of the State of São Paulo - Campus de Rio Claro - SP - Brazil has been developing educational material of geography and cartography to blind students at a special school. Among the materials developed in this study highlight the development of graphics and board games provided with sound capabilities through MAPAVOX, software developed in partnership with UFRJ - Federal University from Rio de Janeiro - RJ - Brazil. Through this software, sound capabilities can be inserted into built materials, giving them a multi-sensory character. In most cases the necessary conditions for building specific materials to students with visual impairments is expensive and beyond the reach of features from a regular school, so the survey sought to use easy access and low cost materials like Cork, leaf aluminum, material for fixing and others. The development of these materials was supported by preparation in laboratory and its subsequent test through practices involving blind students. The methodology used on the survey is based on qualitative research and non comparative analysis of the results. In other words, the material is built based on the special students perception and reality construction, not being mere adaptations of visual materials, but a construction focused on the reality of the visually impaired. The results proved were quite successful as the materials prepared were effective on mediating the learning process of students with disabilities. Geographical and cartographic concepts were seized by the students through the technology used, associated with the use of materials that took into account in its building process the perception of the students.

Microscopic features of tick-bite lesions in anteaters and armadillos - Emas National Park and the Pantanal region of Brazil

The naturally occurring wildlife host associations between ticks and tick-borne pathogens found in the neotropics are poorly described. Understanding tick-bite lesions is important as these are the site of host reaction to and pathogen delivery by ticks. As part of a comprehensive study concerning established and emerging tick-host relationships. The present work describes some aspects of tick-bite lesions in anteaters and armadillos captured at the Emas National Park and the Pantanal region of Brazil. Biopsies were of skin were taken and examine. Tick feeding sites of all animals displayed an eosinophilic homogeneous mass, the cement cone, and, occasionally, a feeding cavity underneath the tick attachment site. At these locations the epidermis was usually thickened due to keratinocyte hyperplasia. The main dermal changes included tissue infiltration with a varying number of inflammatory cells, edema, hemorrhage. and vascular dilatation. Cellular infiltration of the dermis was predominantly composed of mononuclear cells, neutrophils. and eosinophils. Mast cells were also seen in both non-parasitized and parasitized skin but were found in higher numbers at perivascular sites and in parasitized skin. Basophils were not seen at tick attachment sites of anteaters or armadillos.

Análise dos marcos teóricos e estruturais do currículo de graduação em enfermagem no Rio Grande do Norte

This research had as its guiding question: what theoretical and structural milestone of graduation nursing curriculum of public universities in the State of Rio Grande do Norte? The objectives of this study were: Analyze theoretical and structural milestones of graduation nursing curriculum of public universities in the State of Rio Grande do Norte; Identify the theoretical milestone and training models that guide the structural milestones of nursing curriculum courses of public universities studied; Analyze the training concepts of curriculums from the voices of the coordinators of the courses. This is a qualitative study, analytical, with discussions of the documentary and empirical research. Ten teachers participated who act as coordinators of the graduation courses in nursing or academic advisors, in UFRNCentral Campus in Natal and Health Sciences College (Facisa), in Santa Cruz-and on UERN -Campus Caicó, Mossoró and Pau dos Ferros. The information collected by interview was analyzed by sociology or symbolic cartography of Boaventura de Sousa Santos. The research was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the UERN by the CAAE: 03610912.7.0000.5294. All the participants signed the Free Consent and clarified Term The results and discussion were presented in four scientific articles. The first article, titled the Pedagogical projects in nursing analysis in the light of the symbolic cartography, features the use of cartographic method in the researches and in the study of nursing curriculums. In the article The Analysis of theoretical-philosophical, structural and referential milestones in nursing curriculums, these milestones are renowned in curriculums of UERN and UFRN. The main challenges faced in the implementation of supervised internship in nursing provide a reflection on the difficulties that the internship supervisors present, especially with the relationship between education/service and the articulation theory/practice. In the last article are discussed the changes in nursing training from the former student profile, who won a boost from the curricular changes proposed by the national curriculum guidelines. The study concluded, by the analysis of theoretical and structural milestones of nursing curriculum courses of public universities of Rio Grande do Norte, that there is an explicit intention to train nurses for the health system and a search on innovative teaching projects in accordance with the national curriculum guidelines for the area of nursing. The thesis defended in this investigation was that the curriculum of public institutions of higher education in nursing in the State of Rio Grande do Norte advanced from a training focusing on biologicist model, flexneriana guidelines, for teaching able to articulate the health with the social, political and cultural issues

Seleção de features guiada por atenção visual em imagens com fóvea

Visual attention is a very important task in autonomous robotics, but, because of its complexity, the processing time required is significant. We propose an architecture for feature selection using foveated images that is guided by visual attention tasks and that reduces the processing time required to perform these tasks. Our system can be applied in bottom-up or top-down visual attention. The foveated model determines which scales are to be used on the feature extraction algorithm. The system is able to discard features that are not extremely necessary for the tasks, thus, reducing the processing time. If the fovea is correctly placed, then it is possible to reduce the processing time without compromising the quality of the tasks outputs. The distance of the fovea from the object is also analyzed. If the visual system loses the tracking in top-down attention, basic strategies of fovea placement can be applied. Experiments have shown that it is possible to reduce up to 60% the processing time with this approach. To validate the method, we tested it with the feature algorithm known as Speeded Up Robust Features (SURF), one of the most efficient approaches for feature extraction. With the proposed architecture, we can accomplish real time requirements of robotics vision, mainly to be applied in autonomous robotics

Identificação Visual de Caixas de Medicamentos Usando Features Correspondentes

This work uses computer vision algorithms related to features in the identification of medicine boxes for the visually impaired. The system is for people who have a disease that compromises his vision, hindering the identification of the correct medicine to be ingested. We use the camera, available in several popular devices such as computers, televisions and phones, to identify the box of the correct medicine and audio through the image, showing the poor information about the medication, such: as the dosage, indication and contraindications of the medication. We utilize a model of object detection using algorithms to identify the features in the boxes of drugs and playing the audio at the time of detection of feauteres in those boxes. Experiments carried out with 15 people show that where 93 % think that the system is useful and very helpful in identifying drugs for boxes. So, it is necessary to make use of this technology to help several people with visual impairments to take the right medicine, at the time indicated in advance by the physician

Evaluation of the Cartographic Communication Performance of a Route Guidance and Navigation System

This study evaluates the influence of different cartographic representations of in-car navigation systems on visual demand, subjective preference, and navigational error. It takes into account the type and complexity of the representation, maneuvering complexity, road layout, and driver gender. A group of 28 drivers (14 male and 14 female) participated in this experiment which was performed in a low-cost driving simulator. The tests were performed on a limited number of instances for each type of representation, and their purpose was to carry out a preliminary assessment and provide future avenues for further studies. Data collected for the visual demand study were analyzed using non-parametric statistical analyses. Results confirmed previous research that showed that different levels of design complexity significantly influence visual demand. Non-grid-like road networks, for example, influence significantly visual demand and navigational error. An analysis of simple maneuvers on a grid-like road network showed that static and blinking arrows did not present significant differences. From the set of representations analyzed to assess visual demand, both arrows were equally efficient. From a gender perspective, women seem to took at the display more than men, but this factor was not significant. With respect to subjective preferences, drivers prefer representations with mimetic landmarks when they perform straight-ahead tasks. For maneuvering tasks, landmarks in a perspective model created higher visual demands.

Comparison of Botryosphaeran production by the ascomyceteous fungus Botryosphaeria sp., grown on different carbohydrate carbon sources, and their partial structural features

The influence of glucose concentration and other carbohydrates (monosaccharides: fructose, galactose, mannose; polyols: mannitol and sorbitol; disaccharides: lactose, sucrose and commercial sucrose; and industrial sugarcane molasses) were compared as sole carbon sources for the production of Botryosphaeran, an exopolysaccharide (EPS) produced by Botryosphaeria sp. The optimum glucose concentration for EPS production was 50 g 1(-1). With the exception of mannitol, the fungus produced EPS on all carbon sources studied, with highest yields occurring with sucrose followed by glucose. All EPS showed exclusively glucose after acid hydrolysis and monosaccharide analysis. FTIR spectroscopy demonstrated the presence of beta-anomers indicating that all the EPS produced by Botryosphaeria sp. on the different carbon sources were essentially of the beta-D-glucan type.

Ultrastructural features in the epididymis of the dog (Canis familiaris, L.)

The ultrastructure of the epididymal duct of the dog is described in this paper. The epididymis was divided into three morphofunctional segments: initial, middle and terminal. The cellular population of the lining epithelium is formed from principal, apical, basal and clear cells. The peritubular stroma and the tubular interstitium surrounding the epithelium are also described. The outcome is compared to the description made in other species of mammals.