Golden-winged Warbler habitat model validation for northern Wisconsin and central Minnesota

Between 1966 and 2003, the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) experienced declines of 3.4% per year in large parts of the breeding range and has been identified by Partners in Flight as one of 28 land birds requiring expedient action to prevent its continued decline. It is currently being considered for listing under the Endangered Species Act. A major step in advancing our understanding of the status and habitat preferences of Golden-winged Warbler populations in the Upper Midwest was initiated by the publication of new predictive spatially explicit Golden-winged Warbler habitat models for the northern Midwest. Here, I use original data on observed Golden-winged Warbler abundances in Wisconsin and Minnesota to compare two population models: the hierarchical spatial count (HSC) model with the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model. I assessed how well the field data compared to the model predictions and found that within Wisconsin, the HSC model performed slightly better than the HSI model whereas both models performed relatively equally in Minnesota. For the HSC model, I found a 10% error of commission in Wisconsin and a 24.2% error of commission for Minnesota. Similarly, the HSI model has a 23% error of commission in Minnesota; in Wisconsin due to limited areas where the HSI model predicted absences, there was incomplete data and I was unable to determine the error of commission for the HSI model. These are sites where the model predicted presences and the Golden-winged Warbler did not occur. To compare predicted abundance from the two models, a 3x3 contingency table was used. I found that when overlapped, the models do not complement one another in identifying Golden-winged Warbler presences. To calculate discrepancy between the models, the error of commission shows that the HSI model has only a 6.8% chance of correctly classifying absences in the HSC model. The HSC model has only 3.3% chance of correctly classifying absences in the HSI model. These findings highlight the importance of grasses for nesting, shrubs used for cover and foraging, and trees for song perches and foraging as key habitat characteristics for breeding territory occupancy by singing males.

Four thousand years of vegetation and fire history in the spruce forests of northern Kyrgyzstan (Kungey Alatau, Central Asia)

Analyses of pollen, macrofossils and microscopic charcoal in the sediment of a small sub-alpine lake (Karakol, Kyrgyzstan) provide new data to reconstruct the vegetation history of the Kungey Alatau spruce forest during the late-Holocene, i.e. the past 4,000 years. The pollen data suggest that Picea schrenkiana F. and M. was the dominant tree in this region from the beginning of the record. The pollen record of pronounced die-backs of the forests, along with lithostratigraphical evidence, points to possible climatic cooling (and/or drying) around 3,800 cal year B.P., and between 3,350 and 2,520 cal year B.P., with a culmination at 2,800-2,600 cal B.P., although stable climatic conditions are reported for this region for the past 3,000-4,000 years in previous studies. From 2,500 to 190 cal year B.P. high pollen values of P. schrenkiana suggest rather closed and dense forests under the environmental conditions of that time. A marked decline in spruce forests occurred with the onset of modern human activities in the region from 190 cal year B.P. These results show that the present forests are anthropogenically reduced and represent only about half of their potential natural extent. As P. schrenkiana is a species endemic to the western Tien Shan, it is most likely that its refugium was confined to this region. However, our palaeoecological record is too recent to address this hypothesis thoroughly.

The nitrogen cycle of tropical montane forest in Ecuador turns inorganic under environmental change

Water-bound nitrogen (N) cycling in temperate terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere is today mainly inorganic because of anthropogenic release of reactive N to the environment. In little-industrialized and remote areas, in contrast, a larger part of N cycling occurs as dissolved organic N (DON). In a north Andean tropical montane forest in Ecuador, the N cycle changed markedly during 1998–2010 along with increasing N deposition and reduced soil moisture. The DON concentrations and the fractional contribution of DON to total N significantly decreased in rainfall, throughfall, and soil solutions. This inorganic turn of the N cycle was most pronounced in rainfall and became weaker along the flow path of water through the system until it disappeared in stream water. Decreasing organic contributions to N cycling were caused not only by increasing inorganic N input but also by reduced DON production and/or enhanced DON decomposition. Accelerated DON decomposition might be attributable to less waterlogging and higher nutrient availability. Significantly increasing NO3-N concentrations and NO3-N/NH4-N concentration ratios in throughfall and litter leachate below the thick organic layers indicated increasing nitrification. In mineral soil solutions, in contrast, NH4-N concentrations increased and NO3-N/NH4-N concentration ratios decreased significantly, suggesting increasing net ammonification. Our results demonstrate that the remote tropical montane forests on the rim of the Amazon basin experienced a pronounced change of the N cycle in only one decade. This change likely parallels a similar change which followed industrialization in the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere more than a century ago.

Geochemical and isotopic characterization of the Bodélé Depression dust source and implications for transatlantic dust transport to the Amazon Basin

The Bodélé Depression (Chad) in the central Sahara/Sahel region of Northern Africa is the most important source of mineral dust to the atmosphere globally. The Bodélé Depression is purportedly the largest source of Saharan dust reaching the Amazon Basin by transatlantic transport. Here, we have undertaken a comprehensive study of surface sediments from the Bodélé Depression and dust deposits (Chad, Niger) in order to characterize geochemically and isotopically (Sr, Nd and Pb isotopes) this dust source, and evaluate its importance in present and past African dust records. We similarly analyzed sedimentary deposits from the Amazonian lowlands in order to assess postulated accumulation of African mineral dust in the Amazon Basin, as well as its possible impact in fertilizing the Amazon rainforest. Our results identify distinct sources of different ages and provenance in the Bodélé Depression versus the Amazon Basin, effectively ruling out an origin for the Amazonian deposits, such as the Belterra Clay Layer, by long-term deposition of Bodélé Depression material. Similarly, no evidence for contributions from other potential source areas is provided by existing isotope data (Sr, Nd) on Saharan dusts. Instead, the composition of these Amazonian deposits is entirely consistent with derivation from in-situ weathering and erosion of the Precambrian Amazonian craton, with little, if any, Andean contribution. In the Amazon Basin, the mass accumulation rate of eolian dust is only around one-third of the vertical erosion rate in shield areas, suggesting that Saharan dust is “consumed” by tropical weathering, contributing nutrients and stimulating plant growth, but never accumulates as such in the Amazon Basin. The chemical and isotope compositions found in the Bodélé Depression are varied at the local scale, and have contrasting signatures in the “silica-rich” dry lake-bed sediments and in the “calcium-rich” mixed diatomites and surrounding sand material. This unexpected finding implies that the Bodélé Depression material is not “pre-mixed” at the source to provide a homogeneous source of dust. Rather, different isotope signatures can be emitted depending on subtle vagaries of dust-producing events. Our characterization of the Bodélé Depression components indicate that the Bodélé “calcium-rich” component, identified here, is most likely released via eolian processes of sand grain saltation and abrasion and may be significant in the overall global budget of dusts carried out by the Harmattan low-level jet during the winter.

On the road through the Bolivian Amazon: a multi-level land governance analysis of deforestation

Previous studies have shown that collective property rights offer higher flexibility than individual property and improve sustainable community-based forest management. Our case study, carried out in the Beni department of Bolivia, does not contradict this assertion, but shows that collective rights have been granted in areas where ecological contexts and market facilities were less favourable to intensive land use. Previous experiences suggest investigating political processes in order to understand the criteria according to which access rights were distributed. Based on remote sensing and on a multi-level land governance framework, our research confirms that land placed under collective rights, compared to individual property, is less affected by deforestation among Andean settlements. However, analysis of the historical process of land distribution in the area shows that the distribution of property rights is the result of a political process based on economic, spatial, and environmental strategies that are defined by multiple stakeholders. Collective titles were established in the more remote areas and distributed to communities with lower productive potentialities. Land rights are thus a secondary factor of forest cover change which results from diverse political compromises based on population distribution, accessibility, environmental perceptions, and expected production or extraction incomes.

Assessing sustainable forest management under REDD+: a community-based labour perspective

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus (REDD+) encourages economic support for reducing deforestation and conserving or increasing existing forest carbon stocks. The way in which incentives are structured affects trade-offs between local livelihoods, carbon emission reduction, and the cost-effectiveness of a REDD + programme. Looking at first-hand empirical data from 208 farming households in the Bolivian Amazon froma household economy perspective, our study explores two policy options: 1) compensated reduction of emissions fromold-growth forest clearing for agriculture, and 2) direct payments for labour input into sustainable forest anagement combined with a commitment not to clear old-growth forest. Our results indicate that direct payments for sustainable forest management – an approach that focuses on valuing farmers' labour input – can be more cost-effective than compensated reduction and in some cases is themost appropriate choice for achieving improved household incomes, permanence of changes, avoidance of leakages, and community-based institutional enforcement for sustainable forest management.

Declining pine growth in Central Spain coincides with increasing diurnal temperature range since the 1970s

Growing evidence suggests environmental change to be most severe across the semi-arid subtropics, with past, present and projected drying of the Mediterranean Basin posing a key multidisciplinary challenge. Consideration of a single climatic factor, however, often fails to explain spatiotemporal growth dynamics of drought-prone ecosystems. Here, we present annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurements of 871 Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris) from 18 individual plot sites in the Central Spanish Pinar Grande forest reserve. Although comprising tree ages from 6 to 175 years, this network correlates surprisingly well with the inverse May–July diurnal temperature range (r = 0.84; p < 0.00011956–2011). Ring width extremes were triggered by pressure anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the long-term growth decline coincided with Iberian-wide drying since the mid-1970s. Climate model simulations not only confirm this negative trend over the last decades but also project drought to continuously increase over the 21st century. Associated ecological effects and socio-economic consequences should be considered to improve adaptation strategies of agricultural and forest management, as well as biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service.

Site- and species-specific responses of forest growth to climate across the European continent

Aim To evaluate the climate sensitivity of model-based forest productivity estimates using a continental-scale tree-ring network. Location Europe and North Africa (30–70° N, 10° W–40° E). Methods We compiled close to 1000 annually resolved records of radial tree growth for all major European tree species and quantified changes in growth as a function of historical climatic variation. Sites were grouped using a neural network clustering technique to isolate spatiotemporal and species-specific climate response patterns. The resulting empirical climate sensitivities were compared with the sensitivities of net primary production (NPP) estimates derived from the ORCHIDEE-FM and LPJ-wsl dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Results We found coherent biogeographic patterns in climate response that depend upon (1) phylogenetic controls and (2) ambient environmental conditions delineated by latitudinal/elevational location. Temperature controls dominate forest productivity in high-elevation and high-latitude areas whereas moisture sensitive sites are widespread at low elevation in central and southern Europe. DGVM simulations broadly reproduce the empirical patterns, but show less temperature sensitivity in the boreal zone and stronger precipitation sensitivity towards the mid-latitudes. Main conclusions Large-scale forest productivity is driven by monthly to seasonal climate controls, but our results emphasize species-specific growth patterns under comparable environmental conditions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that carry-over effects from the previous growing season can significantly influence tree growth, particularly in areas with harsh climatic conditions – an element not considered in most current-state DGVMs. Model–data discrepancies suggest that the simulated climate sensitivity of NPP will need refinement before carbon-cycle climate feedbacks can be accurately quantified.

Productive Diversification and Sustainable Use of Complex Social-Ecological Systems: A Comparative Study of Indigenous and Settler Communities in the Bolivian Amazon

Agricultural and forest productive diversification depends on multiple socioeconomic drivers—like knowledge, migration, productive capacity, and market—that shape productive strategies and influence their ecological impacts. Our comparison of indigenous and settlers allows a better understanding of how societies develop different diversification strategies in similar ecological contexts and how the related socioeconomic aspects of diversification are associated with land cover change. Our results suggest that although indigenous people cause less deforestation and diversify more, diversification is not a direct driver of deforestation reduction. A multidimensional approach linking sociocognitive, economic, and ecological patterns of diversification helps explain this contradiction.

Assessing traditional knowledge on forest uses to understand forest ecosystem dynamics

Forest ecosystems worldwide are heavily influenced by human activities. Information on these human activities are key for understanding ecosystem dynamics, especially as some of these human activities have long-term consequences, i.e. legacy effects. We assessed the diversity of forest uses across the Swiss Alps and the respective traditional forest-related knowledge (TFRK) by conducting 56 oral history interviews in five regions. As TFRK tends to be underrepresented in written records, oral history proves to be a very valuable approach. We classified the information gathered in 61 specific forest use practices, characterized by activity, product and use, in order to gain a comprehensive picture of the regional variability but also cross-regional ubiquity of certain forest uses. Based on these results we are able to name the ecologically most relevant forest uses which were most likely, or potentially occurring in Central European forests. We suggest a simple, systematic historical assessment of these relevant forest uses to be applied in all studies on forest ecosystems. This procedure will enable scientists to better evaluate to what degree human activities had an impact on forest ecosystem dynamics in their study area.

Carbon sequestration in community forests: trade-offs, multiple outcomes and institutional diversity in the Bolivian Amazon

Carbon sequestration in community forests presents a major challenge for the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) programme. This article uses a comparative analysis of the agricultural and forestry practices of indigenous peoples and settlers in the Bolivian Amazon to show how community-level institutions regulate the trade-offs between community livelihoods, forest species diversity, and carbon sequestration. The authors argue that REDD+ implementation in such areas runs the risk of: 1) reinforcing economic inequalities based on previous and potential land use impacts on ecosystems (baseline), depending on the socio-cultural groups targeted; 2) increasing pressure on land used for food production, possibly reducing food security and redirecting labour towards scarce off-farm income opportunities; 3) increasing dependence on external funding and carbon market fluctuations instead of local production strategies; and 4) further incentivising the privatization and commodification of land to avoid transaction costs associated with collective property rights. The article also advises against taking a strictly economic, market-based approach to carbon sequestration, arguing that such an approach could endanger fragile socio-ecological systems. REDD+ schemes should directly support existing efforts towards forest sustainability rather than simply compensating local land users for avoiding deforestation and forest degradation

Persistence of Artemisia steppe in the Tangra Yumco Basin, west-central Tibet, China: despite or in consequence of Holocene lake-level changes?

The closed Tangra Yumco Basin underwent the strongest Quaternary lake-level changes so far recorded on the Tibetan Plateau. It was hitherto unknown what effect this had on local Holocene vegetation development. A 3.6-m sediment core from a recessional lake terrace at 4,700 m a.s.l., 160 m above the present lake level of Tangra Yumco, was studied to reconstruct Holocene flooding phases (sedimentology and ostracod analyses), vegetation dynamics and human influence (palynology, charcoal and coprophilous fungi analyses). Peat at the base of the profile proves lake level was below 4,700 m a.s.l. during the Pleistocene/Holocene transition. A deep-lake phase started after 11 cal ka BP, but the ostracod record indicates the level was not higher than similar to 4,720 m a.s.l. (180 m above present) and decreased gradually after the early Holocene maximum. Additional sediment ages from the basin suggest recession of Tangra Yumco from the coring site after 2.6 cal ka BP, with a shallow local lake persisting at the site until similar to 1 cal ka BP. The final peat formation indicates drier conditions thereafter. Persistence of Artemisia steppe during the Holocene lake high-stand resembles palynological records from west Tibet that indicate early Holocene aridity, in spite of high lake levels that may have resulted from meltwater input. Yet pollen assemblages indicate humidity closer to that of present potential forest areas near Lhasa, with 500-600 mm annual precipitation. Thus, the early mid-Holocene humidity was sufficient to sustain at least juniper forest, but Artemisia dominance persisted as a consequence of a combination of environmental disturbances such as (1) strong early Holocene climate fluctuations, (2) inundation of habitats suitable for forest, (3) extensive water surfaces that served as barriers to terrestrial diaspore transport from refuge areas, (4) strong erosion that denuded the non-flooded upper slopes and (5) increasing human influence since the late glacial.

Responses to rapid warming at Termination 1a at Gerzensee (Central Europe): Primary succession, albedo, soils, lake development, and ecological interactions

The transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling around 14,685 cal yr BP was a period of extremely rapid climatic warming. From a single core of lake marl taken at Gerzensee (Switzerland) we studied the transition in stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon on bulk sediment and charophyte remains, as well as on monospecific samples of ostracods, after Pisidium a; in addition pollen, chironomids, and Cladocera were analyzed. The δ18O record serves as an estimate of mean air temperature, and by correlation to the one from NGRIP in Greenland it provides a timescale. The timing of responses: The statistically significant zone boundaries of the biostratigraphies are telescoped at the rapid increase of about 3‰ in δ18O at the onset of Bølling. Biotic responses may have occurred within sampling resolution (8 to 16 years), although younger zone boundaries are less synchronous. Gradual and longer-lasting responses include complex processes such as primary or secular succession. During the late-glacial interstadial of Bølling and Allerød, two stronger and two weaker cool phases were found. Biological processes involved in the responses occurred on levels of individuals (e.g. pollen productivity), of populations (increases or decreases, immigration, or extinction), and on the ecosystem level (species interactions such as facilitation or competition). Abiotic and biotic interactions include pedogenesis, nitrogen-fixation, nutrient cycling, catchment hydrology, water chemistry of the lake and albedo (controlled by the transition from tundra to forest). For the Swiss Plateau this major change in vegetation induced a change in the mammal fauna, which in turn led to changes in the tool-making by Paleolithic people.

Forest dynamics during the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød at Gerzensee—a simulation study

The aim of this study was to explore potential causes and mechanisms for the sequence and temporal pattern of tree taxa, specifically for the shift from shrub-tundra to birch–juniper woodland during and after the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød in the region surrounding the lake Gerzensee in southern Central Europe. We tested the influence of climate, forest dynamics, community dynamics compared to other causes for delays. For this aim temperature reconstructed from a δ18O-record was used as input driving the multi-species forest-landscape model TreeMig. In a stepwise scenario analysis, population dynamics along with pollen production and transport were simulated and compared with pollen-influx data, according to scenarios of different δ18O/temperature sensitivities, different precipitation levels, with/without inter-specific competition, and with/without prescribed arrival of species. In the best-fitting scenarios, the effects on competitive relationships, pollen production, spatial forest structure, albedo, and surface roughness were examined in more detail. The appearance of most taxa in the data could only be explained by the coldest temperature scenario with a sensitivity of 0.3‰/°C, corresponding to an anomaly of − 15 °C. Once the taxa were present, their temporal pattern was shaped by competition. The later arrival of Pinus could not be explained even by the coldest temperatures, and its timing had to be prescribed by first observations in the pollen record. After the arrival into the simulation area, the expansion of Pinus was further influenced by competitors and minor climate oscillations. The rapid change in the simulated species composition went along with a drastic change in forest structure, leaf area, albedo, and surface roughness. Pollen increased only shortly after biomass. Based on our simulations, two alternative potential scenarios for the pollen pattern can be given: either very cold climate suppressed most species in the Oldest Dryas, or they were delayed by soil formation or migration. One taxon, Pinus, was delayed by migration and then additionally hindered by competition. Community dynamics affected the pattern in two ways: potentially by facilitation, i.e. by nitrogen-fixing pioneer species at the onset, whereas the later pattern was clearly shaped by competition. The simulated structural changes illustrate how vegetation on a larger scale could feed back to the climate system. For a better understanding, a more integrated simulation approach covering also the immigration from refugia would be necessary, for this combines climate-driven population dynamics, migration, individual pollen production and transport, soil dynamics, and physiology of individual pollen production.

Increasing Silicon Concentrations in Bohemian Forest Lakes

Long-term trends of dissolved silicon (Si) concentrations in five glacial lakes in the Bohemian Forest, Czech Republic, recovering from acidification show higher mobility of Si from the soil to surface waters despite lower atmospheric deposition of acids. Si increased by 0.95 to 1.95 mu mol yr(-1) (36 to 51%) from 1986-2004 and with increasing pH. A change in soil solution conditions because of a sharp decrease in acidic deposition has led to marked decline in Al mobility and to considerable decreases in dissolved Al, especially Al3+. The increase in Si may be related to: (1) unblocking of the inhibitory effect of dissolved Al on weathering of alummosilicates, (2) biogenic opal (phytoliths) dissolving faster, and/or (3) lower Si precipitation as secondary alummosilicates in soil. The change in Al speciation on the dissolution rate of biogenic silica is critical. A lack of change in Si at sites outside central Europe may be explained by small or no decline in mobility of dissolved Al. The effect of a long-term increase in temperature was probably minor.