Pricing the cost of an election: the impact of the 2014 elections on stock markets

Qual o efeito de eleições em ativos reais? É possível mensurar diretamente a diferença de preços mesmo que só possamos enxergar um dos resultados potenciais? Essa dissertação estima esses efeitos utilizando metodologia baseada em opções sobre ações. O modelo aqui desenvolvido adaptção tradicional Black-Scholes para incorporar dois novos parâmetros: um salto no preço do ativo perfeitamente antecipado e uma série de probabilidades diárias refletindo as crenças sobre quem venceria a corrida eleitoral. Aplicamos esse método para o caso brasileiro das Eleições Presidenciais de 2014 e a Petrobras - uma importante companhia do setor petrolífero do país -utilizando dados de bolsa do segundo turno das eleições. Os resultados encontrados mostram uma diferença de 65-77% para o valor da companhia, dependendo de quem vencesse nas urnas. Isso é equivalente a aproximadamente 2.5% do PIB de 2014 do país.

Brazilian Students and Working Capital: An Analysis of Their Decisions When Using Virtual Market Business Games

This study aims to demonstrate that data from business games can be an important resource for improving efficiency and effectiveness of learning. The proposal presented here was developed from preliminary studies of data from Virtual Market games that pointed the possibility of identifying gaps in learning by analyzing the decisions of students. This proposal helps students to refine their learning processes and equips tutors with strategies for teaching and student assessment. The proposal also complements the group discussion and/or debriefing, which are widely used to enhance learning mediated by games. However, from a management perspective the model has the potential to be erroneous and miss opportunities, which cannot be detected because of the dependence on the characteristics of the individual, such as ability to communicate and work together. To illustrate the proposed technique, data sets from two business games were analyzed with the focus on managing working capital and it was found that students had difficulties managing this task. Similar trends were observed in all categories of students in the study-undergraduate, postgraduate and specialization. This discovery led us to the analysis of data for decisions made in the performance of the games, and it was determined that indicators could be developed that were capable of indentifying inconsistencies in the decisions. It was decided to apply some basic concepts of the finance management, such as management of the operational and non-operational expenditures, as well as production management concepts, such as the use of the production capacity. By analyzing the data from the Virtual Market games using the indicator concept, it was possible to detect the lack of domain knowledge of the students. Therefore, these indicators can be used to analyze the decisions of the players and guide them during the game, increasing their effectiveness and efficiency. As these indicators were developed from specific content, they can also be used to develop teaching materials to support learning. Viewed in this light, the proposal adds new possibilities for using business games in learning. In addition to the intrinsic learning that is achieved through playing the games, they also assist in driving the learning process. This study considers the applications and the methodology used.

Biodiesel CO2 emissions: A comparison with the main fuels in the Brazilian market

The use of biodiesel is increasing as an attractive fuel due to the depleting fossil fuel resources and environmental degradation. This paper presents results of an investigation on the potentials of biodiesel as an alternative fuel and main substitute of diesel oil, comparing the CO2 emissions of the main fuels in the Brazilian market with those of biodiesel, in pure form or blended in different proportions with diesel oil (2%, 5%, and 20%, called B2, B5, and B20, respectively). The results of the study are shown in ton CO2 per m(3) and ton CO2 per year of fuel. The fuels were analyzed considering their chemical composition, stoichiometric combustion parameters and mean consumption for a single vehicle. The fuels studied were: gasoline, diesel oil, anhydrous ethyl alcohol (anhydrous ethanol), and biodiesel from used frying oil and from soybean oil. For the case of biodiesel, its complete life cycle and the closed carbon cycle (photosynthesis) were considered. With data provided by the Brazilian Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA) for the number of vehicles produced in Brazil, the emissions of CO2 for the national fleet in 2007 were obtained per type of fuel. With data provided by the Brazilian Department of Transit (DENATRAN) concerning the number of diesel vehicles in the last five years in Brazil, the total CO2 emissions and the percentage that they would decrease in the case of use of pure biodiesel, B100, or several mixtures, B2, B5 and B20, were calculated. Estimates of CO2 emissions for a future scenario considering the mixtures B5 and B20 are also included in this article. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Underlying dynamics of typical fluctuations of an emerging market price index: the Heston model from minutes to months

We investigate the Heston model with stochastic volatility and exponential tails as a model for the typical price fluctuations of the Brazilian São Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA). Raw prices are first corrected for inflation and a period spanning 15 years characterized by memoryless returns is chosen for the analysis. Model parameters are estimated by observing volatility scaling and correlation properties. We show that the Heston model with at least two time scales for the volatility mean reverting dynamics satisfactorily describes price fluctuations ranging from time scales larger than 20min to 160 days. At time scales shorter than 20 min we observe autocorrelated returns and power law tails incompatible with the Heston model. Despite major regulatory changes, hyperinflation and currency crises experienced by the Brazilian market in the period studied, the general success of the description provided may be regarded as an evidence for a general underlying dynamics of price fluctuations at intermediate mesoeconomic time scales well approximated by the Heston model. We also notice that the connection between the Heston model and Ehrenfest urn models could be exploited for bringing new insights into the microeconomic market mechanics. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fish stock assessment of piraputanga Brycon microlepis in the Cuiabá River Basin, Pantanal of Mato Grosso, Brazil

Fork length measurements of individuals of Brycon microlepis landed and commercialized at the Porto Market in Cuiabá, MT, from May-October 1996 to May-October 1997 were used to estimate growth and mortality parameters for this species. The average estimated populational parameters were: L∞_ = 705 mm, k = 0.275 year -1, C = 0.775, WP = 0.465, Lc = 164 mm, M = 0.585 year -1, Z = 0.822 year -1, with F = 0.237 year -1. Yield per recruit analysis suggests that the stock is not yet overexploited.

Flexibility and security in the labour market: improving social protection for Brazilian workers

Includes bibliography

Market structure, firm size and Brazilian exports

Includes bibliography

Regional integration and the labour market: the Brazilian case

Includes bibliography

Susceptibility profile of a Brazilian yeast stock collection of Candida species isolated from subjects with Candida-associated denture stomatitis with or without diabetes

Objective: This study investigated the susceptibility of 198 clinical isolates of Candida species against caspofungin, amphotericin B, itraconazole, and fluconazole. Study Design: Suspensions of the microorganisms were spread on Roswell Park Memorial Institute (RPMI) agar plates. Etest strips were placed on the plates, and the minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) was read after incubation (48 h at 37°C). Data were analyzed by a factorial analysis of variance and a 2 × 2 post hoc test (α = .05). Results: C glabrata showed the highest MIC values (P < .001) against caspofungin, itraconazole, and fluconazole. For amphotericin B, the MIC values of C tropicalis and C glabrata (P = .0521) were higher than those of C albicans (P < .001). Itraconazole was the least effective antifungal; 93.3% of the C glabrata isolates, 3.3% of the C albicans, and 1.3% of the C tropicalis were resistant. All microorganisms were susceptible to caspofungin and amphotericin B. Conclusions: Caspofungin and amphotericin B should be recommended as an effective alternative for the management of oral Candida infections when treatment with topical or other systemic drugs has definitely failed. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Restructuring and changing market conditions in the Brazilian auto components industry

Includes bibliography

Exports from the Brazilian automotive sector to the Southern Common Market: Trade diversion or cost reduction?

The automotive sector is one of the sectors in which trade between mercosur countries has grown most strongly. This article examines the possibility that trade diversion occurred in that sector during the period 1991-2010, assuming that product costs fell as a result of market expansion. The analysis is based on the concepts of “cost reduction” and “trade suppression” coined by Corden (1972), which capture the effects of economies of scale. Indices of regional orientation and revealed comparative advantages are used in combination to assess whether the trade bloc is evolving in line with comparative advantages. The results suggest efficiency gains for automotive-sector products, exports of which from Brazil to mercosur grew more vigorously because the expanded and relatively protected market made it possible to exploit the economies of scale that are characteristic of the automotive industry.

Information access law and disclosing of information by joint-stock companies in Brazil: open data and Extensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) standard

The strategic management of information plays a fundamental role in the organizational management process since the decision-making process depend on the need for survival in a highly competitive market. Companies are constantly concerned about information transparency and good practices of corporate governance (CG) which, in turn, directs relations between the controlling power of the company and investors. In this context, this article presents the relationship between the disclosing of information of joint-stock companies by means of using XBRL, the open data model adopted by the Brazilian government, a model that boosted the publication of Information Access Law (Lei de Acesso à Informação), nº 12,527 of 18 November 2011. Information access should be permeated by a mediation policy in order to subsidize the knowledge construction and decision-making of investors. The XBRL is the main model for the publishing of financial information. The use of XBRL by means of new semantic standard created for Linked Data, strengthens the information dissemination, as well as creates analysis mechanisms and cross-referencing of data with different open databases available on the Internet, providing added value to the data/information accessed by civil society.

Atenolol characterization in solid formulations available in Brazilian market

Atenolol is the most used drug in Brazil to hypertension treatment. Two crystal structures are known for this molecule: a racemic form (R,S)-atenolol and a pure form S-atenolol. The racemic form is found in commercial tablets. X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) is an adequate tool to study crystalline structures including drugs. Using the Rietveld Method with XRD data it is possible to quantify the crystalline structures existing in the raw material. Other methods like Le Bail and Pawley can be used to the profile fit and phases identification. For this work we analyzed three tablets of atenolol, two generics and the reference (materials were purchased from a drugstore at the city of Araraquara). These tablets were analyzed by Rietveld, Le Bail and Pawley methods. All tablets exhibited the racemic mixture API (R,S)-atenolol. Some crystalline excipients could be characterized: magnesium carbonate hydrate, lactose monohydrate and talc. The conclusion is that the three methods can be efficiently used to characterize the three atenolol tablets.

Guidelines for the Brazilian ceramic sector strategic development, based on a comparison with the Italian market

Based on a structured literature review, the ceramic tiles sector of Italy (benchmark) and Brazil (2nd world producer and consumer) are compared, under four strategic factors: normative, market, technology and strategic management, in order to identify critical risks for a national strategic sector. The document aims to propose guidelines for a strategic re-planning of the Brazilian ceramic tiles sector, making the Brazilian producers aware of the national market fragility (in spite of its recent remarkable evolution) and helping the policy makers to reflect on the need of reviewing the strategic planning methods and practice, of designing new targeted programs (based on coherence between operation and business strategies), of providing improved management to strengthen the sector against unfair competition by low-cost producers, enhancing the necessary infrastructure in technology, work, marketing and quality management. The analysis is limited to the single-firing production technology. The wide-coverage strategic analysis of the Brazilian ceramic tiles sector, very little studied until now in a scientific way, emphasizes the importance of applying research methodology and may be valuable to both scholars and practitioners. Additionally, it highlights the need of investments in innovation (product design and production technology) and the fundamental role of the sector organization, identifying different dimensions. It is possible to conclude that the recent Brazilian production growth is not due to a natural strengthening because of the hit of the sector and of correct enterprises strategy, but it seems the result of a temporary and favorable economic contingency.