I. Impact spallation experiments: fracture patterns and spall velocities. II. Craters in carbonate rocks: an electron paramagnetic resonance analysis of shock damage

This work is divided into two independent papers.

PAPER 1.

Spall velocities were measured for nine experimental impacts into San Marcos gabbro targets. Impact velocities ranged from 1 to 6.5 km/sec. Projectiles were iron, aluminum, lead, and basalt of varying sizes. The projectile masses ranged from a 4 g lead bullet to a 0.04 g aluminum sphere. The velocities of fragments were measured from high-speed films taken of the events. The maximum spall velocity observed was 30 m/sec, or 0.56 percent of the 5.4 km/sec impact velocity. The measured velocities were compared to the spall velocities predicted by the spallation model of Melosh (1984). The compatibility between the spallation model for large planetary impacts and the results of these small scale experiments are considered in detail.

The targets were also bisected to observe the pattern of internal fractures. A series of fractures were observed, whose location coincided with the boundary between rock subjected to the peak shock compression and a theoretical "near surface zone" predicted by the spallation model. Thus, between this boundary and the free surface, the target material should receive reduced levels of compressive stress as compared to the more highly shocked region below.

PAPER 2.

Carbonate samples from the nuclear explosion crater, OAK, and a terrestrial impact crater, Meteor Crater, were analyzed for shock damage using electron para- magnetic resonance, EPR. The first series of samples for OAK Crater were obtained from six boreholes within the crater, and the second series were ejecta samples recovered from the crater floor. The degree of shock damage in the carbonate material was assessed by comparing the sample spectra to spectra of Solenhofen limestone, which had been shocked to known pressures.

The results of the OAK borehole analysis have identified a thin zone of highly shocked carbonate material underneath the crater floor. This zone has a maximum depth of approximately 200 ft below sea floor at the ground zero borehole and decreases in depth towards the crater rim. A layer of highly shocked material is also found on the surface in the vicinity of the reference bolehole, located outside the crater. This material could represent a fallout layer. The ejecta samples have experienced a range of shock pressures.

It was also demonstrated that the EPR technique is feasible for the study of terrestrial impact craters formed in carbonate bedrock. The results for the Meteor Crater analysis suggest a slight degree of shock damage present in the β member of the Kaibab Formation exposed in the crater walls.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Comportamento de bugios (Alouatta clamitans Cabrera, 1940) na Ilha Grande, RJ

Alouatta clamitans é uma espécie endêmica da Mata Atlântica, bioma que vem sendo continuamente reduzido, o que torna de extrema urgência o conhecimento sobre a espécie. No Estado do Rio de Janeiro, sua área de ocorrência abrange a região da Ilha Grande, município de Angra dos Reis. A Ilha Grande possui uma extensa área de preservação, o Parque Estadual da Ilha Grande, que atua na conservação de cerca de 62,5% da sua extensão. O isolamento das espécies em ilhas pode provocar o desenvolvimento de características morfológicas e comportamentais diferentes das espécies do continente. No entanto, não existem trabalhos sistematizados sobre a ecologia e o comportamento da espécie no local. Este estudo objetivou analisar aspectos do comportamento de Alouatta clamitans na Ilha Grande, contribuindo para uma melhor compreensão sobre a biologia da espécie. Durante nove meses foram registrados dados de composição social e comportamento de grupos da espécie através da amostragem por varredura instantânea e todas as ocorrências. Observou-se que o tamanho médio dos grupos foi de cinco indivíduos e a composição social por grupo foi representada por um a dois machos adultos, uma a três fêmeas adultas e imaturos de diferentes classes etárias, com predominância de grupos unimacho. Em média, os grupos eram compostos por 22% de machos adultos, 38% de fêmeas adultas, 4% de machos subadultos, 27% de juvenis e 9% de infantes. O comportamento mais observado foi o repouso (45,2%), seguido da alimentação (28%), movimentação (21,7%) e comportamento social (5,1%), e dentre os comportamentos sociais, o mais exibido foi a vocalização (45,8%), seguido dos comportamentos de catação (33,7%), agonístico (7,9%), brincadeira (5,8%), marcação (4,2%) e comportamento sexual (2,6%). Não foram encontradas diferenças estatisticamente significativas nestas atividades entre os períodos seco e chuvoso. As vocalizações foram predominantemente emitidas por machos e adultos e estiveram relacionadas ao encontro de grupos. O comportamento de catação teve as fêmeas adultas como principais iniciadoras e os machos adultos, principais receptores, sendo realizado durante o comportamento de repouso, após a cópula, após e durante encontro de grupos e após perseguições. Os comportamentos agonísticos tiveram relação com o encontro de grupos em 40% dos registros e em 33,3% destes ocorreu entre fêmeas e pareceu estar associado à disputa por alimento e espaço, mas não houve registros de agressão física. O comportamento de marcação envolveu a utilização da garganta e das costas e esteve relacionado com encontros inter-grupais e com a ocorrência de chuvas. Cinco cópulas foram registradas no período de estudo nos meses de setembro, outubro e fevereiro e tiveram duração menor que um minuto. Nos encontros com primatas de outras espécies, os bugios pareceram neutros em relação aos estímulos. Os dados obtidos sobre a composição dos grupos, padrão de atividades e comportamentos sociais observados na Ilha Grande, de maneira geral, mostraram-se semelhantes aos resultados obtidos em outros trabalhos sobre a espécie e o gênero, de maneira que podemos concluir que os grupos, mesmo residentes em ilha, não demonstraram modificações comportamentais significativas que possam diferenciar-lhes de populações estudadas no continente.

Different patterns of uptake and depuration of cadmium by periphyton community and a grazer species (Physa sp.): A mesocosm evalution

Widespread pollution by heavy metals generated by various industries has serious adverse effects on human health and the environment. Cadmium is a heavy metal recognised as one of the most hazardous environmental pollutants. It is a non-essential and non-beneficial element to organisms, causing toxicity and other deleterious effects on various components of the aquatic environment. The ability of algal periphyton to concentrate cadmium from fresh water is well known. Moreover, periphyton communities are able to accumulate large amounts of cadmium despite its low concentration in fresh water. Many researchers use algal periphyton as an indicator of water quality in aquatic environments. In the present study, the authors ask two basic questions: Does cadmium accumulate along a food chain consisting of the periphyton community and a grazer species (Physa sp.) under semi-natural conditions provided by artificial streams? If not, which one can better indicate the water quality?

Essays in Behavioral Decision Theory

This thesis studies decision making under uncertainty and how economic agents respond to information. The classic model of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating is often at odds with empirical and experimental results; people exhibit systematic biases in information processing and often exhibit aversion to ambiguity. The aim of this work is to develop simple models that capture observed biases and study their economic implications.

In the first chapter I present an axiomatic model of cognitive dissonance, in which an agent's response to information explicitly depends upon past actions. I introduce novel behavioral axioms and derive a representation in which beliefs are directionally updated. The agent twists the information and overweights states in which his past actions provide a higher payoff. I then characterize two special cases of the representation. In the first case, the agent distorts the likelihood ratio of two states by a function of the utility values of the previous action in those states. In the second case, the agent's posterior beliefs are a convex combination of the Bayesian belief and the one which maximizes the conditional value of the previous action. Within the second case a unique parameter captures the agent's sensitivity to dissonance, and I characterize a way to compare sensitivity to dissonance between individuals. Lastly, I develop several simple applications and show that cognitive dissonance contributes to the equity premium and price volatility, asymmetric reaction to news, and belief polarization.

The second chapter characterizes a decision maker with sticky beliefs. That is, a decision maker who does not update enough in response to information, where enough means as a Bayesian decision maker would. This chapter provides axiomatic foundations for sticky beliefs by weakening the standard axioms of dynamic consistency and consequentialism. I derive a representation in which updated beliefs are a convex combination of the prior and the Bayesian posterior. A unique parameter captures the weight on the prior and is interpreted as the agent's measure of belief stickiness or conservatism bias. This parameter is endogenously identified from preferences and is easily elicited from experimental data.

The third chapter deals with updating in the face of ambiguity, using the framework of Gilboa and Schmeidler. There is no consensus on the correct way way to update a set of priors. Current methods either do not allow a decision maker to make an inference about her priors or require an extreme level of inference. In this chapter I propose and axiomatize a general model of updating a set of priors. A decision maker who updates her beliefs in accordance with the model can be thought of as one that chooses a threshold that is used to determine whether a prior is plausible, given some observation. She retains the plausible priors and applies Bayes' rule. This model includes generalized Bayesian updating and maximum likelihood updating as special cases.

Activity patterns of Kemp's ridley turtles, Lepidochelys kempii, in the coastal waters of the Cedar Keys, Florida

Radio and sonic telemetry were used to investigate the tidal orientation, rate of movement (ROM), and surfacing behavior of nine Kemp's ridley turtles, Lepidochelys kempii, tracked east of the Cedar Keys, Florida. The mean of mean turtle bearings on incoming (48 ± 49 0) and falling (232 ± 41 0) tides was significantly oriented to the mean directions of tidal flow (37±9°, P<0.0025, and 234±9 0, P<0.005, respectively). Turtles had a mean ROM of 0.44±0.33 km/h (range: 0.004-1.758 km/h), a mean surface duration of 18± 15 s (range: 1-88 s), and a mean submergence duration of 8.4± 6.4 min (range: 0.2-60.0 min). ROM was negatively correlated with surface and submergence durations and positively correlated with the number of surfacings. Furthermore, ROMs were higher and surface and submergence durations were shorter during the day. Daily activities of turtles were attributed to food acquisition and bioenergetics.

Effect of elliptical manufacture error of an axicon on the diffraction-free beam patterns

Based on the generalized Huygens-Fresnel diffraction integral theory and the stationary-phase method, we analyze the influence on diffraction-free beam patterns of an elliptical manufacture error in an axicon. The numerical simulation is compared with the beam patterns photographed by using a CCD camera. Theoretical simulation and experimental results indicate that the intensity of the central spot decreases with increasing elliptical manufacture defect and propagation distance. Meanwhile, the bright rings around the central spot are gradually split into four or more symmetrical bright spots. The experimental results fit the theoretical simulation very well. (C) 2008 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

Molecular ecology of european mustelids: Unraveling evolutionary and ecological patterns in Martes and Lutra genera

208 p.

Physiological Determinants of Invasive Success Linking Distribution Patterns to Metabolic Physiology in Native and Invasive Blue Mussels (genus Mytilus)

In the early 20th century, a blue mussel species from the Mediterranean invaded the California coast and subsequently out-competed the native species south of Monterey Bay. Like other invasive species, Mytilus galloprovincialis has physiological traits that make it successful in habitats formerly occupied by the native M. trossulus, namely its adaptation to warm sea surface temperatures. This study looks at the current genotype distributions and enzymatic activities of field-acclimatized mussels within the hybrid zone where the species co-occur as well as mussels that have been acclimated for four weeks to different temperature and salinity conditions. In the field-acclimatized and laboratory-acclimated mussels, the native species exhibited significantly higher enzyme rates, which may reflect an evolutionary adaptation to compensate to low habitat temperatures. Indeed, the results of the laboratory acclimation indicate that these differences are genetically based. Whether an acclimation capacity exists may require even longer-term acclimation to different temperatures. Current findings suggest that the further spread of the invasive species is likely to be governed in large measure by the potentially counteracting effects of rising temperatures, which would favor the northerly spread of M. galloprovincialis, and increased winter precipitation, which would favor the persistence of M. trossulus. However, the success of M. galloprovincialis during acclimation to ‘dilute’ salinity (25 ppt) suggests that the invasive species can tolerate a greater salinity range than previously thought. Thus, further investigation is needed to build a comprehensive predictive model of the movement of M. galloprovincialis and the hybrid zone along the California coast.

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.