940 resultados para Bayesian belief networks


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Airport system is complex. Passenger dynamics within it appear to be complicate as well. Passenger behaviours outside standard processes are regarded more significant in terms of public hazard and service rate issues. In this paper, we devised an individual agent decision model to simulate stochastic passenger behaviour in airport departure terminal. Bayesian networks are implemented into the decision making model to infer the probabilities that passengers choose to use any in-airport facilities. We aim to understand dynamics of the discretionary activities of passengers.

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The reliability of urban passenger trains is a critical performance measure for passenger satisfaction and ultimately market share. A delay to one train in a peak period can have a severe effect on the schedule adherence of other trains. This paper presents an analytically based model to quantify the expected positive delay for individual passenger trains and track links in an urban rail network. The model specifically addresses direct delay to trains, knock-on delays to other trains, and delays at scheduled connections. A solution to the resultant system of equations is found using an iterative refinement algorithm. Model validation, which is carried out using a real-life suburban train network consisting of 157 trains, shows the model estimates to be on average within 8% of those obtained from a large scale simulation. Also discussed, is the application of the model to assess the consequences of increased scheduled slack time as well as investment strategies designed to reduce delay.

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Little research has examined the extent to which active ageing is facilitated by family and nonfamilial support persons of older adults with intellectual disabilities. This study explores the role played by key unpaid carers/support persons of older adults with lifelong intellectual disabilities in facilitating "active ageing." Little research has examined the extent to which active ageing is facilitated by family and nonfamilial support persons of older adults with intellectual disabilities. This study explores the role played by key unpaid carers/support persons of older adults with lifelong intellectual disabilities in facilitating “active ageing.” All key social network members conceived active ageing to mean ongoing activity. Family and extended family members were found to play a crucial role in facilitating independent living and providing opportunities for recreational pursuits for those living in group homes. Members of religious organizations and group home staff provided the same types of opportunities where family support was absent. The findings suggest the need for improvements in resource provision, staff training, and group home policy and building design.

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The presence of large number of single-phase distributed energy resources (DERs) can cause severe power quality problems in distribution networks. The DERs can be installed in random locations. This may cause the generation in a particular phase exceeds the load demand in that phase. Therefore the excess power in that phase will be fed back to the transmission network. To avoid this problem, the paper proposes the use of distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM) that needs to be connected at the first bus following a substation. When operated properly, the DSTATCOM can facilitate a set of balanced current flow from the substation, even when excess power is generated by DERs. The proposals are validated through extensive digital computer simulation studies using PSCAD and MATLAB.

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This article presents a methodology that integrates cumulative plots with probe vehicle data for estimation of travel time statistics (average, quartile) on urban networks. The integration reduces relative deviation among the cumulative plots so that the classical analytical procedure of defining the area between the plots as the total travel time can be applied. For quartile estimation, a slicing technique is proposed. The methodology is validated with real data from Lucerne, Switzerland and it is concluded that the travel time estimates from the proposed methodology are statistically equivalent to the observed values.

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Current unbalance is a significant power quality problem in distribution networks. This problem increases further with the increased penetration of single-phase photovoltaic cells. In this paper, a new approach is developed for current unbalance reduction in medium voltage distribution networks. The method is based on utilization of three single-phase voltage source converters connected in delta configuration between the phases. Each converter is controlled to function as a varying capacitor. The combination of the load and the compensator will result in a balanced load with unity power factor. The efficacy of the proposed current unbalance reduction concept is verified through dynamic simulations in PSCAD/EMTDC.