930 resultados para Bayesian Analuysis, Ross River Virus, Spatio-Temporal Modelling


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Beijing is one of the most water-stressed cities in the world. Due to over-exploitation of groundwater, the Beijing region has been suffering from land subsidence since 1935. In this study, the Small Baseline InSAR technique has been employed to process Envisat ASAR images acquired between 2003 and 2010 and TerraSAR-X stripmap images collected from 2010 to 2011 to investigate land subsidence in the Beijing region. The maximum subsidence is seen in the eastern part of Beijing with a rate greater than 100 mm/year. Comparisons between InSAR and GPS derived subsidence rates show an RMS difference of 2.94 mm/year with a mean of 2.41 ± 1.84 mm/year. In addition, a high correlation was observed between InSAR subsidence rate maps derived from two different datasets (i.e., Envisat and TerraSAR-X). These demonstrate once again that InSAR is a powerful tool for monitoring land subsidence. InSAR derived subsidence rate maps have allowed for a comprehensive spatio-temporal analysis to identify the main triggering factors of land subsidence. Some interesting relationships in terms of land subsidence were found with groundwater level, active faults, accumulated soft soil thickness and different aquifer types. Furthermore, a relationship with the distances to pumping wells was also recognized in this work.

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Fish traps are widely used in Norwegian fjords, especially those designed for monitoring salmonid populations in the marine environment, although many other marine fish species are also captured. The composition and spatio-temporal variations of fish species captured by fish traps were monitored in five different coastal locations throughout the Romsdalsfjord region, Western Norway, from May to August during the three consecutive years (2011–2013). Twenty-three fish species were captured by traps in coastal waters, both resident and migratory fishes. The most common fish and with greater catchability were saithe (Pollachis virens) and sea trout (Salmo trutta), followed by cod (Gadus morhua), pollack (P. pollachius), herring (Clupea harengus) and mackerels (Trachurus trachurus and Scomber scombrus). However, the captured assemblage presented great spatial and seasonal variations, in terms of mean daily catch, probably associated with hydrographical conditions and migrational patterns. Information obtained in this study will help us to better understand the compositions and dynamic of coastal fish populations inhabiting Norwegian coastal waters. In addition, traps are highly recommended as a management tool for fish research (e.g. fish-tagging experiments, mark and recapture) and conservation purposes (coastal use and fisheries studies).

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1Recent studies demonstrated the sensitivity of northern forest ecosystems to changes in the amount and duration of snow cover at annual to decadal time scales. However, the consequences of snowfall variability remain uncertain for ecological variables operating at longer time scales, especially the distributions of forest communities. 2The Great Lakes region of North America offers a unique setting to examine the long-term effects of variable snowfall on forest communities. Lake-effect snow produces a three-fold gradient in annual snowfall over tens of kilometres, and dramatic edaphic variations occur among landform types resulting from Quaternary glaciations. We tested the hypothesis that these factors interact to control the distributions of mesic (dominated by Acer saccharum, Tsuga canadensis and Fagus grandifolia) and xeric forests (dominated by Pinus and Quercus spp.) in northern Lower Michigan. 3We compiled pre-European-settlement vegetation data and overlaid these data with records of climate, water balance and soil, onto Landtype Association polygons in a geographical information system. We then used multivariate adaptive regression splines to model the abundance of mesic vegetation in relation to environmental controls. 4Snowfall is the most predictive among five variables retained by our model, and it affects model performance 29% more than soil texture, the second most important variable. The abundance of mesic trees is high on fine-textured soils regardless of snowfall, but it increases with snowfall on coarse-textured substrates. Lake-effect snowfall also determines the species composition within mesic forests. The weighted importance of A. saccharum is significantly greater than of T. canadensis or F. grandifolia within the lake-effect snowbelt, whereas T. canadensis is more plentiful outside the snowbelt. These patterns are probably driven by the influence of snowfall on soil moisture, nutrient availability and fire return intervals. 5Our results imply that a key factor dictating the spatio-temporal patterns of forest communities in the vast region around the Great Lakes is how the lake-effect snowfall regime responds to global change. Snowfall reductions will probably cause a major decrease in the abundance of ecologically and economically important species, such as A. saccharum.

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Time series of brightness temperatures (T(B)) from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) are examined to determine ice phenology variables on the two largest lakes of northern Canada: Great Bear Lake (GBL) and Great Slave Lake (GSL). T(B) measurements from the 18.7, 23.8, 36.5, and 89.0 GHz channels (H- and V- polarization) are compared to assess their potential for detecting freeze-onset/melt-onset and ice-on/ice-off dates on both lakes. The 18.7 GHz (H-pol) channel is found to be the most suitable for estimating these ice dates as well as the duration of the ice cover and ice-free seasons. A new algorithm is proposed using this channel and applied to map all ice phenology variables on GBL and GSL over seven ice seasons (2002-2009). Analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of each variable at the pixel level reveals that: (1) both freeze-onset and ice-on dates occur on average about one week earlier on GBL than on GSL (Day of Year (DY) 318 and 333 for GBL; DY 328 and 343 for GSL); (2) the freeze-up process or freeze duration (freeze-onset to ice-on) takes a slightly longer amount of time on GBL than on GSL (about 1 week on average); (3) melt-onset and ice-off dates occur on average one week and approximately four weeks later, respectively, on GBL (DY 143 and 183 for GBL; DY 135 and 157 for GSL); (4) the break-up process or melt duration (melt-onset to ice-off) lasts on average about three weeks longer on GBL; and (5) ice cover duration estimated from each individual pixel is on average about three weeks longer on GBL compared to its more southern counterpart, GSL. A comparison of dates for several ice phenology variables derived from other satellite remote sensing products (e.g. NOAA Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS), QuikSCAT, and Canadian Ice Service Database) show that, despite its relatively coarse spatial resolution, AMSR-E 18.7 GHz provides a viable means for monitoring of ice phenology on large northern lakes.

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Spatio-temporal maps of the occipital cortex of macaque monkeys were analyzed using optical imaging of intrinsic signals. The images obtained during localized visual stimulation (IS) were compared with the images obtained on presentation of a blank screen (IB). We first investigated spontaneous variations of the intrinsic signals by analyzing the 100 IBs for each of the three cortical areas. Slow periodical activation was observed in alternation over the cortical areas. Cross-correlation analysis indicated that synchronization of spontaneous activation only took place within each cortical area, but not between them. When a small, drifting grating (2degreesX2degrees) was presented on the fovea. a dark spot appeared in the optical image at the cortical representation of this retinal location. It spread bilaterally along the border between V1 and V2, continuing as a number of parallel dark bands covering a large area of the lateral surface of V1. Cross-correlation analysis showed that during visual stimulation the intrinsic signals over all of the three cortical areas were synchronized, with in-phase activation of V1 and V2 and anti-phase activation of V4 and V1/V2. The significance of these extensive synergistic and antagonistic interactions between different cortical areas is discussed. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Basic structure studies of the biosynthetic machinery of the cell by electron microscopy (EM) have underpinned much of our fundamental knowledge in the areas of molecular cell biology and membrane traffic. Driven by our collective desire to understand how changes in the complex and dynamic structure of this enigmatic organelle relate to its pivotal roles in the cell, the comparatively high-resolution glimpses of the Golgi and other compartments of the secretory pathway offered to us through EM have helped to inspire the development and application of some of our most informative, complimentary (molecular, biochemical and genetic) approaches. Even so, no one has yet even come close to relating the basic molecular mechanisms of transport, through and from the Golgi, to its ultrastructure, to everybody's satisfaction. Over the past decade, EM tomography has afforded new insights into structure -function relationships of the Golgi and provoked a re-evaluation of older paradigms. By providing a set of tools for structurally dissecting cells at high-resolution in three-dimensions (3D), EM tomography has emerged as a method for studying molecular cell biology in situ. As we move rapidly toward the establishment of molecular atlases of organelles through advances in proteomics and genomics, tomographic studies of the Golgi offer the tantalizing possibility that one day, we will be able to map the spatio-temporal coordinates of Golgi-related proteins and lipids accurately in the context of 4D cellular space. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Pre-settlement events play an important role in determining larval success in marine invertebrates with bentho-pelagic life histories, yet the consequences of these events typically are not well understood. The purpose of this study was to examine the pre-settlement impacts of different seawater temperatures on the size and population density of dinoflagellate symbionts in brooded larvae of the Caribbean coral Porites astreoides. Larvae were collected from P. astreoides at 14-20 m depth on Conch Reef (Florida) in June 2002, and incubated for 24 h at 15 temperatures spanning the range 25.1 degrees-30.0 degrees C in mean increments of 0.4 +/- 0.1 degrees C (+/- SD). The most striking feature of the larval responses was the magnitude of change in both parameters across this 5 degrees C temperature range within 24 h. In general, larvae were largest and had the highest population densities of Symbiodinium sp. between 26.4 degrees-27.7 degrees C, and were smallest and had the lowest population densities at 25.8 degrees C and 28.8 degrees C. Larval size and symbiont population density were elevated slightly (relative to the minimal values) at the temperature extremes of 25.1 degrees C and 30 degrees C. These data demonstrate that coral larvae are highly sensitive to seawater temperature during their pelagic phase, and respond through changes in size and the population densities of Symbiodinium sp. to ecologically relevant temperature signals within 24 h. The extent to which these changes are biologically meaningful will depend on the duration and frequency of exposure of coral larvae to spatio-temporal variability in seawater temperature, and whether the responses have cascading effects on larval success and their entry to the post-settlement and recruitment phase.

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Evolutionary change results from selection acting on genetic variation. For migration to be successful, many different aspects of an animal's physiology and behaviour need to function in a co-coordinated way. Changes in one migratory trait are therefore likely to be accompanied by changes in other migratory and life-history traits. At present, we have some knowledge of the pressures that operate at the various stages of migration, but we know very little about the extent of genetic variation in various aspects of the migratory syndrome. As a consequence, our ability to predict which species is capable of what kind of evolutionary change, and at which rate, is limited. Here, we review how our evolutionary understanding of migration may benefit from taking a quantitative-genetic approach and present a framework for studying the causes of phenotypic variation. We review past research, that has mainly studied single migratory traits in captive birds, and discuss how this work could be extended to study genetic variation in the wild and to account for genetic correlations and correlated selection. In the future, reaction-norm approaches may become very important, as they allow the study of genetic and environmental effects on phenotypic expression within a single framework, as well as of their interactions. We advocate making more use of repeated measurements on single individuals to study the causes of among-individual variation in the wild, as they are easier to obtain than data on relatives and can provide valuable information for identifying and selecting traits. This approach will be particularly informative if it involves systematic testing of individuals under different environmental conditions. We propose extending this research agenda by using optimality models to predict levels of variation and covariation among traits and constraints. This may help us to select traits in which we might expect genetic variation, and to identify the most informative environmental axes. We also recommend an expansion of the passerine model, as this model does not apply to birds, like geese, where cultural transmission of spatio-temporal information is an important determinant of migration patterns and their variation.

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The occurrence of rockbursts was quite common during active mining periods in the Champion reef mines of Kolar gold fields, India. Among the major rockbursts, the ‘area-rockbursts’ were unique both in regard to their spatio-temporal distribution and the extent of damage caused to the mine workings. A detailed study of the spatial clustering of 3 major area-rockbursts (ARB) was carried out using a multi-fractal technique involving generalized correlation integral functions. The spatial distribution analysis of all 3 area-rockbursts showed that they are heterogeneous. The degree of heterogeneity (D2 – D∞) in the cases of ARB-I, II and III were found to be 0.52, 0.37 and 0.41 respectively. These differences in fractal structure indicate that the ARBs of the present study were fully controlled by different heterogeneous stress fields associated with different mining and geological conditions. The present study clearly showed the advantages of the application of multi-fractals to seismic data and to characterise, analyse and examine the area-rockbursts and their causative factors in the Kolar gold mines.

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Recently, we introduced a new 'GLM-beamformer' technique for MEG analysis that enables accurate localisation of both phase-locked and non-phase-locked neuromagnetic effects, and their representation as statistical parametric maps (SPMs). This provides a useful framework for comparison of the full range of MEG responses with fMRI BOLD results. This paper reports a 'proof of principle' study using a simple visual paradigm (static checkerboard). The five subjects each underwent both MEG and fMRI paradigms. We demonstrate, for the first time, the presence of a sustained (DC) field in the visual cortex, and its co-localisation with the visual BOLD response. The GLM-beamformer analysis method is also used to investigate the main non-phase-locked oscillatory effects: an event-related desynchronisation (ERD) in the alpha band (8-13 Hz) and an event-related synchronisation (ERS) in the gamma band (55-70 Hz). We show, using SPMs and virtual electrode traces, the spatio-temporal covariance of these effects with the visual BOLD response. Comparisons between MEG and fMRI data sets generally focus on the relationship between the BOLD response and the transient evoked response. Here, we show that the stationary field and changes in oscillatory power are also important contributors to the BOLD response, and should be included in future studies on the relationship between neuronal activation and the haemodynamic response. © 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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This paper describes physics of nonlinear ultra-short laser pulse propagation affected by plasma created by the pulse itself. Major applications are also discussed. Nonlinear propagation of the femtosecond laser pulses in gaseous and solid transparent dielectric media is a fundamental physical phenomenon in a wide range of important applications such as laser lidars, laser micro-machining (ablation) and microfabrication etc. These applications require very high intensity of the laser field, typically 1013–1015 TW/cm2. Such high intensity leads to significant ionisation and creation of electron-ion or electron-hole plasma. The presence of plasma results into significant multiphoton and plasma absorption and plasma defocusing. Consequently, the propagation effects appear extremely complex and result from competitive counteraction of the above listed effects and Kerr effect, diffraction and dispersion. The theoretical models used for consistent description of laser-plasma interaction during femtosecond laser pulse propagation are derived and discussed. It turns out that the strongly nonlinear effects such self-focusing followed by the pulse splitting are essential. These phenomena feature extremely complex dynamics of both the electromagnetic field and plasma density with different spatio-temporal structures evolving at the same time. Some numerical approaches capable to handle all these complications are also discussed. ©2006 American Institute of Physics

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The identification of disease clusters in space or space-time is of vital importance for public health policy and action. In the case of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), it is particularly important to distinguish between community and health care-associated infections, and to identify reservoirs of infection. 832 cases of MRSA in the West Midlands (UK) were tested for clustering and evidence of community transmission, after being geo-located to the centroids of UK unit postcodes (postal areas roughly equivalent to Zip+4 zip code areas). An age-stratified analysis was also carried out at the coarser spatial resolution of UK Census Output Areas. Stochastic simulation and kernel density estimation were combined to identify significant local clusters of MRSA (p<0.025), which were supported by SaTScan spatial and spatio-temporal scan. In order to investigate local sampling effort, a spatial 'random labelling' approach was used, with MRSA as cases and MSSA (methicillin-sensitive S. aureus) as controls. Heavy sampling in general was a response to MRSA outbreaks, which in turn appeared to be associated with medical care environments. The significance of clusters identified by kernel estimation was independently supported by information on the locations and client groups of nursing homes, and by preliminary molecular typing of isolates. In the absence of occupational/ lifestyle data on patients, the assumption was made that an individual's location and consequent risk is adequately represented by their residential postcode. The problems of this assumption are discussed, with recommendations for future data collection.

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Magnetoencephalography (MEG), functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and behavioural experiments were used to investigate the neural processes underlying global form perception in human vision. Behavioural studies using Glass patterns examined sensitivity for detecting radial, rotational and horizontal structure. Neuroimaging experiments using either Glass patterns or arrays of Gabor patches determined the spatio-temporal neural responseto global form. MEG data were analysed using synthetic aperture magnetometry (SAM) to spatially map event-related cortical oscillatory power changes: the temporal sequencing of activity within a discrete cortical area was determined using a Morlet wavelet transform. A case study was conducted to determine the effects of strbismic amblyopia on global form processing: all other observers were normally-sighted. The main findings from normally-sighted observers were: 1) sensitivity to horizontal structure was less than for radial or rotational structure; 2) the neural response to global structure was a reduction in cortical oscillatory power (10-30 Hz) within a network of extrastriate areas, including V4 and V3a; 3) the extend of reduced cortical power was least for horizontal patters; 4) V1 was not identified as a region of peak activity with either MEG or fMRI. The main findings with the strabismic amblyope were: 1) sensitivity for detection of radial, rotational, and horizontal structure was reduced when viewed with the amblyopic- relative to the fellow- eye; 2) cortical power changes within V4 to the presentation of rotational Glass patterns were less when viewed with the amblyopic- compared with the fellow- eye. The main conclusions are: 1) a network of extrastriate cortical areas are involved in the analysis of global form, with the most prominent change in neural activity being a reduction in oscillatory power within the 10-30 Hz band; 2) in strabismic amblyopia, the neuronal assembly associated with form perception in extrastriate cortex may be dysfunctional, the nature of this dysfunction may be a change in the normal temporal pattern of neuronal discharges; 3) MEG, fMRI and behavioural measures support the notion that different neural processes underlie the perception of horizontal as opposed to radial or rotational structure.