948 resultados para Bayes credible intervals
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The insulin hypoglycemia test (IHT) is widely regarded as the 'gold standard' for dynamic stimulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. This study aimed to investigate the temporal relationship between a rapid decrease in plasma glucose and the corresponding rise in plasma adenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), and to assess the reproducibility of hormone responses to hypoglycemia in normal humans. Ten normal subjects underwent IHTs, using an insulin dose of 0.15 U/kg. Of these, eight had a second IHT (IHT2) and three went on to a third test (IHT3). Plasma ACTH and cortisol were measured at 15-min intervals and, additionally, in four IHT2s and the three IHT3s, ACTH was measured at 2.5- or 5-min intervals. Mean glucose nadirs and mean ACTH and cortisol responses were not significantly different between IHT1, IHT2 and IHT3. Combined data from all 21 tests showed the magnitude of the cortisol responses, but not the ACTH responses, correlated significantly with the depth and duration of hypoglycemia. All subjects achieved glucose concentrations of of less than or equal to 1.6 mmol/l before any detectable rise in ACTH occurred. In the seven tests performed with frequent sampling, an ACTH rise never preceeded the glucose nadir, but occurred at the nadir, or up to 15 min after. On repeat testing, peak ACTH levels varied markedly within individuals, whereas peak cortisol levels were more reproducible (mean coefficient of variation 7%). In conclusion, hypoglycemia of less than or equal to 1.6 mmol/l was sufficient to cause stimulation of the HPA axis in all 21 IHTs conducted in normal subjects. Nonetheless; our data cannot reveal whether higher glucose nadirs would stimulate increased HPA axis activity in all subjects. Overall, the cortisol response to hypoglycemia is more reproducible than the ACTH response but, in an individual subject, the difference in peak cortisol between two IHTs may exceed 100 nmol/l.
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Objective-To determine reference values and test variability for glucose tolerance tests (GTT), insulin tolerance tests (ITT), and insulin sensitivity tests (IST) in cats, Animals-32 clinically normal cats. Procedure-GTT, ITT, and IST were performed on consecutive days. Tolerance intervals tie, reference values) were calculated as means +/- 2.397 SD for plasma glucose and insulin concentrations, half-life of glucose (T-1/2glucose), rate constants for glucose disappearance (K-glucose and K-itt), and insulin sensitivity index (S-l). Tests were repeated after 6 weeks in 8 cats to determine test variability. Results-Reference values for T-1/2glucose, K-glucose, and fasting plasma glucose and insulin concentrations during GTT were 45 to 74 minutes, 0.93 to 1.54 %/min, 37 to 104 mg/dl, and 2.8 to 20.6 muU/ml, respectively. Mean values did not differ between the 2 tests. Coefficients of variation for T-1/2glucose, K-glucose, and fasting plasma glucose and insulin concentrations were 20, 20, 11, and 23%, respectively. Reference values for K-itt were 1.14 to 7.3%/min, and for S-l were 0.57 to 10.99 x 10(-4) min/muU/ml. Mean values did not differ between the 2 tests performed 6 weeks apart, Coefficients of variation for K-itt and S-l were 60 and 47%, respectively. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-GTT, ITT, and IST can be performed in cats, using standard protocols. Knowledge of reference values and test variability will enable researchers to better interpret test results for assessment of glucose tolerance, pancreatic beta -cell function, and insulin sensitivity in cats.
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New Zealand is generally thought to have been physically isolated from the rest of the world for over 60 million years. But physical isolation may not mean biotic isolation, at least on the time scale of millions of years. Are New Zealand's present complement of plants the direct descendants of what originally rafted from Gondwana? Or has there been total extinction of this initial flora with replacement through long-distance dispersal (a complete biotic turnover)? These are two possible extremes which have come under recent discussion. Can the fossil record be used to decide the relative importance of the two endpoints, or is it simply too incomplete and too dependent on factors of chance? This paper suggests two approaches to the problem-the use of statistics to apply levels of confidence to first appearances in the fossil record and the analysis of trends based on the entire palynorecord. Statistics can suggest that the first appearance of a taxon was after New Zealand broke away from Gondwana-as long as the first appearance in the record was not due to an increase in biomass from an initially rare state. Two observations can be drawn from the overall palynorecord that are independent of changes in biomass: (1) The first appearance of palynotaxa common to both Australia and New Zealand is decidedly non-random. Most taxa occur first in Australia. This suggests a bias in air or water transport from west to east. (2) The percentage of endemic palynospecies in New Zealand shows no simple correlation with the time New Zealand drifted into isolation. The conifer macrorecord also hints at complete turnover since the Cretaceous.
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Large (>1600 mum), ingestively masticated particles of bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon L. Pers.) leaf and stem labelled with Yb-169 and Ce-144 respectively were inserted into the rumen digesta raft of heifers grazing bermuda grass. The concentration of markers in digesta sampled from the raft and ventral rumen were monitored at regular intervals over approximately 144 h. The data from the two sampling sites were simultaneously fitted to two pool (raft and ventral rumen-reticulum) models with either reversible or sequential flow between the two pools. The sequential flow model fitted the data equally as well as the reversible flow model but the reversible flow model was used because of its greater application. The reversible flow model, hereafter called the raft model, had the following features: a relatively slow age-dependent transfer rate from the raft (means for a gamma 2 distributed rate parameter for leaf 0.0740 v. stem 0.0478 h(-1)), a very slow first order reversible flow from the ventral rumen to the raft (mean for leaf and stem 0.010 h(-1)) and a very rapid first order exit from the ventral rumen (mean of leaf and stem 0.44 h(-1)). The raft was calculated to occupy approximately 0.82 total rumen DM of the raft and ventral rumen pools. Fitting a sequential two pool model or a single exponential model individually to values from each of the two sampling sites yielded similar parameter values for both sites and faster rate parameters for leaf as compared with stem, in agreement with the raft model. These results were interpreted as indicating that the raft forms a large relatively inert pool within the rumen. Particles generated within the raft have difficulty escaping but once into the ventral rumen pool they escape quickly with a low probability of return to the raft. It was concluded that the raft model gave a good interpretation of the data and emphasized escape from and movement within the raft as important components of the residence time of leaf and stem particles within the rumen digesta of cattle.
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Six species of insects and a rust fungus have been successfully established for biocontrol of the weed Parthenicum hysterophorus L. in Queensland, Australia. Effectiveness of biocontrol insects was evaluated at two properties in Queensland during 1996-97 based on an exclusion experiment using insecticides. Parthenium-infested plots with and without biocontrol insects were sampled at monthly intervals and the impact of biocontrol insects on parthenium at individual plant and whole population levels monitored. Biocontrol insects were more effective at Mt Panorama (central Queensland) than at Plain Creek (north Queensland). At Mt Panorama, the leaf-feeding beetle Zygogramma bicolorata Pallister caused 96% defoliation and the stem-galling moth Epiblema strenuana Walker affected 100% of the plants, resulting in reductions of 90% in weed density, 40% in plant height, and 82% in flower production. Exclusion of biocontrol insects resulted in a 52% increase in seedling emergence and a seven-fold increase in the soil seed bank in the following season. At Plain Creek, E. strenuana was the only prominent agent. It affected 92% of the plants and prevented 32% of plants from producing any flowers, reduced plant height by 40% and flower production by 49%, but did not reduce the plant biomass, weed density or soil seed bank. However, exclusion of biocontrol insects resulted in an eight-fold increase in the soil seed bank in the following season.
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Nest use, home-range characteristics and nightly movements by the northern bettong (Bettongia tropica) were examined before and after a low- to moderate-intensity fire in sclerophyll woodland in north-eastern Australia using radio-telemetry. In all, 23 animals were radio-tracked at three-month intervals between February 1995 and May 1996. During November 1995 a low- intensity experimental fire burned the entire home range of most animals. The northern bettong appeared fairly catholic in choice of nest site, with a variety of nest locations and nesting materials used. Prior to the fire, nests were generally located in areas of dense cover, such as the skirts of grass trees (46%) or grass close to a log (29%). After fire removed most ground cover in the nesting areas of most animals, bettongs used remaining shelter such as boulder piles (45%), recently fallen trees (8%) and patches of unburnt vegetation (21%). Nest areas (10.1 ha) of males were significantly larger than those of females (5.4 ha). Home ranges of both sexes were large (59 ha) and most ranges lacked distinct core areas, suggesting that bettongs used all parts of their home ranges equally. High mean rates of nightly movement by the northern bettong indicated that large distances were moved within home ranges during nightly foraging. No significant fire-related changes were detected in home-range size, home-range location, nest-area location or mean rates of nightly movement, suggesting that the northern bettong is well adapted to the low- and medium-intensity fires that characterise its habitat.
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The study aimed to identify significant antenatal risk factors for cerebral palsy (CP) among extremely preterm infants with a matched case-control design. Infants born between 1989 and 1996 at 24 to 27 weeks' gestation who survived to hospital discharge were evaluated: 30 with a proven diagnosis of CP at 2 years corrected for prematurity and 120 control children matched for gestational age without CP. Information on maternal obstetric risk factors and medication was obtained. Matched analyses were performed and odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. An antenatal diagnosis of intrauterine growth restriction was associated with an increased risk of CP (OR 6.6; 95% CI 1.8 to 25.2), while maternal administration of corticosteroids was associated with a reduced risk of CP (OR 0.4; 95% CI 0.1 to 0.98). A high rate of placental histopathology was achieved but no relation between clinical or histological chorioamnionitis or funisitis and CP was demonstrated. Maternal preeclampsia was not associated with a statistically significant reduction in the risk of CP. It is concluded that a reduced risk of CP in extremely preterm infants is associated with the antenatal use of corticosteroids.
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Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The virtual (or minimum) height of the F-region (h'F), recorded over a number of solar cycles for I I equatorial and mid-latitude ionosonde stations, was used to deduce the hemispheric (i.e. southern or northern hemisphere) character of equatorial stations. The semi-annual median monthly height (h'F) variations consist of two components: major local summer maximum and winter sub-maximum (about 5 percent of the summer maximum). This hemispheric pattern was most consistently observed for equatorial stations (within 5degrees of the geomagnetic equator) in a period centred on the local midnight (21-03 LT) but was also present, to a lesser extent, at mid-latitude stations and at other time intervals. It is evident that the physical parameter h'F defines the hemispheric character of an equatorial station which has different (sometimes opposite) geographic and geomagnetic latitudes. There is a sharp transition in the latitudinal character of the stations on both sides of the equator leading to hypothesis that the equal maxima in h'F in December and June solstices are observed at a near-equator position labelled as ionosonde deduced equator (IDE). Such a signature was observed for an American equatorial (both geographic and geomagnetic) station Talara (Peru) which is an experimental support of the hypothesis. The IDE can be another useful parameter characterising the equatorial ionosphere. This finding reveals a new application of the standard ionosonde data in defining the geophysical character of equatorial stations, being an important contribution to space climatology. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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DNA probes were used in in situ hybridisation on histological sections of oysters exposed for defined intervals to Marteilia sydneyi infection to reveal the early development of the parasite in the oyster host, Saccostrea glomerata. The initial infective stages enter through the palps and gills whereupon extrasporogonic proliferation results in the liberation of cells into surrounding connective tissue and haemolymph spaces. Following systemic dissemination, the parasite infiltrates the digestive gland and becomes established as a nurse cell beneath the epithelial cells ill a digestive tubule. Here, cell-within-cell proliferation results in the eventual liberation of daughter cells from the nurse cell into spaces between adjacent epithelial cells. None of these stages had previously been described. Proliferation is associated with host responses, including haemocytic infiltration of the connective tissue and diapedesis across tubule epithelia. The responses cease as sporogenesis begins. (C) 2002 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Stress echocardiography has been shown to improve the diagnosis of coronary artery disease in the presence of hypertension, but its value in prognostic evaluation is unclear. We sought to determine whether stress echocardiography could be used to predict mortality in 2363 patients with hypertension, who were followed for up to 10 years (mean 4.0+/-1.8) for death and revascularization. Stress echocardiograms were normal in 1483 patients (63%), 16% had resting left ventricular (LV) dysfunction alone, and 21% had ischemia. Abnormalities were confined to one territory in 489 patients (21%) and to multiple territories in 365 patients (15%). Cardiac death was less frequent among the patients able to exercise than among those undergoing dobutamine echocardiography (4% versus 7%, P<0.001). The risk of death in patients with a negative stress echocardiogram was <1% per year. Ischemia identified by stress echocardiography was an independent predictor of mortality in those able to exercise (hazard ratio 2.21, 95% confidence intervals 1.10 to 4.43, P=0.0001) as well as those undergoing dobutamine echo (hazard ratio 2.39, 95% confidence intervals 1.53 to 3.75, P=0.0001); other predictors were age, heart failure, resting LV dysfunction, and the Duke treadmill score. In stepwise models replicating the sequence of clinical evaluation, the results of stress echocardiography added prognostic power to models based on clinical and stress-testing variables. Thus, the results of stress echocardiography are an independent predictor of cardiac death in hypertensive patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease, incremental to clinical risks and exercise results.
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Two experiments investigated the effects of the sensory modality of the lead and of the blink-eliciting stimulus during lead stimulus modality change on blink modulation at lead intervals of 2500 and 3500 ins. Participants were presented with acoustic, visual, or tactile change stimuli after habituation training with lead stimuli from the same or a different sensory modality. In Experiment 1, latency and magnitude of the acoustic blink were facilitated during a change to acoustic or visual lead stimuli, but not during a change to tactile lead stimuli. After habituation to acoustic lead stimuli, blink magnitude was smaller during tactile change stimuli than during habituation stimuli. The latter finding was replicated in Experiment 2 in which blink was elicited by electrical stimulation of the trigeminal nerve. The consistency of the findings across different combinations of lead stimulus and blink-eliciting stimulus modalities does not support a modality-specific account of attentional blink modulation. Rather, blink modulation during generalized orienting reflects modality non-specific processes, although modulation may not always be found during tactile lead stimuli. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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We explore the sensitivity of an interferometer based on a quantum circuit for coherent states. We show that its sensitivity is at the Heisenberg limit. Moreover, we show that this arrangement can measure very small length intervals.
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AIMS: To identify the respiratory viruses that are present among foals in New Zealand and to establish the age at which foals first become infected with these viruses. METHODS: Foals were recruited to the study in October/ November 1995 at the age of 1 month (Group A) or in March/ April 1996 at the age of 4-6 months (Groups B and C). Nasal swabs and blood samples were collected at monthly intervals. Nasal swabs and peripheral blood leucocytes (PBL) harvested from heparinised blood samples were used for virus isolation; serum harvested from whole-blood samples was used for serological testing for the presence of antibodies against equine herpesvirus (EHV)-1 or -4, equine rhinitis-A virus (ERAV), equine rhinitis-B virus (ERBV), equine adenovirus 1 (EAdV-1), equine arteritis virus (EAV), reovirus 3 and parainfluenza virus type 3 (PIV3). Twelve foals were sampled until December 1996; the remaining 19 foals were lost from the study at various times prior to this date. RESULTS: The only viruses isolated were EHV 2 and EHV 5. EHV 2 was isolated from 155/157 PBL samples collected during the period of study and from 40/172 nasal swabs collected from 18 foals. All isolations from nasal swabs, except one, were made over a period of 2-4 months from January to April (Group A), March to April (Group B) or May, to July (Group C). EHV 5 was isolated from either PBL, nasal swabs, or both, from 15 foals on 32 occasions. All foals were positive for antibodies to EHV 1 or EHV 4, as tested by serum neutralisation (SN), on at least one sampling occasion and all but one were positive for EHV 1 antibodies measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) on at least one sampling occasion. Recent EHV 1 infection was evident at least once during the period of study in 18/23 (78%) foals for which at least two samples were collected. SN antibodies to ERBV were evident in 19/23 (83%) foals on at least one sampling occasion and 15/23 foals showed evidence of seroconversion to ERBV Antibodies to ERAV were only detected in serum samples collected from foals in Group A and probably represented maternally-derived antibodies. Haemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody titres greater than or equal to 1:10 to EAdV-1 were evident in 21/23 (91%) foals on at least one sampling occasion and 16/23 foals showed serological evidence of recent EAdV-1 infection. None of the 67 serum samples tested were positive for antibodies to EAV, reovirus 3 or PIV3. There was no clear association between infection with any of the viruses isolated or tested for and the presence of overt clinical signs of respiratory disease. CONCLUSIONS: There was serological and/or virological evidence that EHV-1, EHV-2, EHV-5, EAdV-1 and ERBV infections were present among foals in New Zealand. EHV-2 infection was first detected in foals as young as 3 months of age. The isolation of EHV-2 from nasal swabs preceded serological evidence of infection with other respiratory viruses, suggesting that EHV-2 may predispose foals to other viral infections.
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Objective To evaluate the effect of periparturient disease accompanied by vulval discharge, and weaning-to-mating intervals, on sow fertility and litter size. Design Reproductive data were collected and analysed from 19 Hungarian swine herds over a 4 year period. Conception rates, farrowing rates and litter sizes of sows with periparturient disease accompanied by vulval discharge were used to evaluate the relationship between duration of vulval discharge and subsequent fertility and litter size. The possibility of interactions between weaning-to-mating intervals and duration of vulval discharges was investigated to determine if there was any effect on subsequent fertility and litter size. Results and conclusions Both parity 1 and parity 2 to 8 sows having had periparturient disease accompanied by vulval discharge in excess of 6 days duration had significantly (P < 0.001) lower subsequent fertility (conception, farrowing and adjusted farrowing rates) compared with sows of similar parity where the duration of vulval discharge was < 4 or 4 to 6 days. There was no difference in fertility rates between sows, in both parity categories, with vulval discharge for < 4 days compared with 4 to 6 days. A duration of vulval discharge in excess of 6 days in parity 1 sows significantly reduced litter size (total born and live-born) in subsequent farrowings, but not in parity 2 to 8 sows. There was no interaction between the duration of vulval discharge and post-weaning to mating intervals. However sows with weaning to mating intervals between 7 and 10 days had smaller (P < 0.001) subsequent litter sizes compared with 3 to 6 or 11 to 14 day intervals. It was concluded that the duration of vulval discharge in excess of 6 days was an indication of a severe persistent endometritis adversely affecting fertility of sows.