Plant Migrations Impact on Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Forests have a prominent role in carbon storage and sequestration. Anthropogenic forcing has the potential to accelerate climate change and alter the distribution of forests. How forests redistribute spatially and temporally in response to climate change can alter their carbon sequestration potential. The driving question for this research was: How does plant migration from climate change impact vegetation distribution and carbon sequestration potential over continental scales? Large-scale simulation of the equilibrium response of vegetation and carbon from future climate change has shown relatively modest net gains in sequestration potential, but studies of the transient response has been limited to the sub-continent or landscape scale. The transient response depends on fine scale processes such as competition, disturbance, landscape characteristics, dispersal, and other factors, which makes it computational prohibitive at large domain sizes. To address this, this research used an advanced mechanistic model (Ecosystem Demography Model, ED) that is individually based, but pseudo-spatial, that reduces computational intensity while maintaining the fine scale processes that drive the transient response. First, the model was validated against remote sensing data for current plant functional type distribution in northern North America with a current climatology, and then a future climatology was used to predict the potential equilibrium redistribution of vegetation and carbon from future climate change. Next, to enable transient calculations, a method was developed to simulate the spatially explicit process of dispersal in pseudo-spatial modeling frameworks. Finally, the new dispersal sub-model was implemented in the mechanistic ecosystem model, and a model experimental design was designed and completed to estimate the transient response of vegetation and carbon to climate change. The potential equilibrium forest response to future climate change was found to be large, with large gross changes in distribution of plant functional types and comparatively smaller changes in net carbon sequestration potential for the region. However, the transient response was found to be on the order of centuries, and to depend strongly on disturbance rates and dispersal distances. Future work should explore the impact of species-specific disturbance and dispersal rates, landscape fragmentation, and other processes that influence migration rates and have been simulated at the sub-continent scale, but now at continental scales, and explore a range of alternative future climate scenarios as they continue to be developed.

Exploring Iris Colour Prediction And Ancestry Inference In Admixed Populations Of South America.

New DNA-based predictive tests for physical characteristics and inference of ancestry are highly informative tools that are being increasingly used in forensic genetic analysis. Two eye colour prediction models: a Bayesian classifier - Snipper and a multinomial logistic regression (MLR) system for the Irisplex assay, have been described for the analysis of unadmixed European populations. Since multiple SNPs in combination contribute in varying degrees to eye colour predictability in Europeans, it is likely that these predictive tests will perform in different ways amongst admixed populations that have European co-ancestry, compared to unadmixed Europeans. In this study we examined 99 individuals from two admixed South American populations comparing eye colour versus ancestry in order to reveal a direct correlation of light eye colour phenotypes with European co-ancestry in admixed individuals. Additionally, eye colour prediction following six prediction models, using varying numbers of SNPs and based on Snipper and MLR, were applied to the study populations. Furthermore, patterns of eye colour prediction have been inferred for a set of publicly available admixed and globally distributed populations from the HGDP-CEPH panel and 1000 Genomes databases with a special emphasis on admixed American populations similar to those of the study samples.

Overlapped Sequence Types (sts) And Serogroups Of Avian Pathogenic (apec) And Human Extra-intestinal Pathogenic (expec) Escherichia Coli Isolated In Brazil.

Avian pathogenic Escherichia coli (APEC) strains belong to a category that is associated with colibacillosis, a serious illness in the poultry industry worldwide. Additionally, some APEC groups have recently been described as potential zoonotic agents. In this work, we compared APEC strains with extraintestinal pathogenic E. coli (ExPEC) strains isolated from clinical cases of humans with extra-intestinal diseases such as urinary tract infections (UTI) and bacteremia. PCR results showed that genes usually found in the ColV plasmid (tsh, iucA, iss, and hlyF) were associated with APEC strains while fyuA, irp-2, fepC sitDchrom, fimH, crl, csgA, afa, iha, sat, hlyA, hra, cnf1, kpsMTII, clpVSakai and malX were associated with human ExPEC. Both categories shared nine serogroups (O2, O6, O7, O8, O11, O19, O25, O73 and O153) and seven sequence types (ST10, ST88, ST93, ST117, ST131, ST155, ST359, ST648 and ST1011). Interestingly, ST95, which is associated with the zoonotic potential of APEC and is spread in avian E. coli of North America and Europe, was not detected among 76 APEC strains. When the strains were clustered based on the presence of virulence genes, most ExPEC strains (71.7%) were contained in one cluster while most APEC strains (63.2%) segregated to another. In general, the strains showed distinct genetic and fingerprint patterns, but avian and human strains of ST359, or ST23 clonal complex (CC), presented more than 70% of similarity by PFGE. The results demonstrate that some zoonotic-related STs (ST117, ST131, ST10CC, ST23CC) are present in Brazil. Also, the presence of moderate fingerprint similarities between ST359 E. coli of avian and human origin indicates that strains of this ST are candidates for having zoonotic potential.

The role of the observed tropical convection in the generation of frost events in the southern cone of South America

Based on previous results obtained from observations and linear wave theory analysis, the hypothesis that large-scale patterns can generate extreme cold events in southeast South America through the propagation of remotely excited Rossby waves was already suggested. This work will confirm these findings and extend their analysis through a series of numerical experiments using a primitive equation model where waves are excited by a thermal forcing situated in positions chosen according to observed convection anomalies over the equatorial region. The basic state used for these experiments is a composite of austral winters with maximum and minimum frequency of occurrence of generalized frosts that can affect a large area known as the Wet Pampas located in the central and eastern part of Argentina. The results suggest that stationary Rossby waves may be one important mechanism linking anomalous tropical convection with the extreme cold events in the Wet Pampas. The combination of tropical convection and a specific basic state can generate the right environment to guide the Rossby waves trigged by the tropical forcing towards South America. Depending on the phase of the waves entering the South American continent, they can favour the advection of anomalous wind at low levels from the south carrying cold and dry air over the whole southern extreme of the continent, producing a generalized frost in the Wet Pampa region. On the other hand, when a basic state based on the composites of minimum frosts is used, an anomalous anticyclone over the southern part of the continent generates a circulation with a south-southeast wind which brings maritime air and therefore humidity over the Wet Pampas region, creating negative temperature anomalies only over the northeastern part of the region. Under these conditions even if frosts occur they would not be generalized, as observed for the other basic state with maximum frequency of occurrence of generalized frosts.

A GIS Based Assessment of Land Suitable for Growing Hoop Pine in the Atherton, Eacham and Herberton Shires of North Queensland

The area of private land suitable and available for growing hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii) on the Atherton Tablelands in North Queensland was modelled using a geographic information system (GIS). In Atherton, Eacham and Herberton shires, approximately 64,700 ha of privately owned land were identified as having a mean annual rainfall and soil type similar to Forestry Plantations Queensland (FPQ) hoop pine growth plots with an approximate growth rate of 20 m3 per annum. Land with slope of over 25° and land covered with native vegetation were excluded in the estimation. If land which is currently used for high-value agriculture is also excluded, the net area of land potentially suitable and available for expansion of hoop pine plantations is approximately 22,900 ha. Expert silvicultural advice emphasized the role of site preparation and weed control in affecting the long-term growth rate of hoop pine. Hence, sites with less than optimal fertility and rainfall may be considered as being potentially suitable for growing hoop pine at a lower growth rate. The datasets had been prepared at various scales and differing precision for their description of land attributes. Therefore, the results of this investigation have limited applicability for planning at the individual farm level but are useful at the regional level to target areas for plantation expansion.

Dynamics of Hepatitis D (delta) virus genotype 3 in the Amazon region of South America

Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is widely distributed and associated with fulminant hepatitis epidemics in areas with high prevalence of HBV. Several studies performed in the 1980s showed data on HDV infection in South America, but there are no studies on the viral dynamics of this virus. The aim of this study was to conduct an evolutionary analysis of hepatitis delta genotype 3 (HDV/3) prevalent in South America: estimate its nucleotide substitution rate, determine the time of most recent ancestor (TMRCA) and characterize the epidemic history and evolutionary dynamics. Furthermore, we characterized the presence of HBV/HDV infection in seven samples collected from patients who died due to fulminant hepatitis from Amazon region in Colombia and included them in the evolutionary analysis. This is the first study reporting HBV and HDV sequences from the Amazon region of Colombia. Of the seven Colombian patients, five were positive for HBV-DNA and HDV-RNA. Of them, two samples were successfully sequenced for HBV (subgenotypes F3 and Fib) and the five samples HDV positive were classified as HDV/3. By using all HDV/3 available reference sequences with sampling dates (n = 36), we estimated the HDV/3 substitution rate in 1.07 x 10(-3) substitutions per site per year (s/s/y), which resulted in a time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of 85 years. Also, it was determined that HDV/3 spread exponentially from early 1950s to the 1970s in South America. This work discusses for the first time the viral dynamics for the HDV/3 circulating in South America. We suggest that the measures implemented to control HBV transmission resulted in the control of HDV/3 spreading in South America, especially after the important raise in this infection associated with a huge mortality during the 1950s up to the 1970s. The differences found among HDV/3 and the other HDV genotypes concerning its diversity raises the hypothesis of a different origin and/or a different transmission route. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Microsatellite diversity and effective population size in a germplasm bank of Hymenaea courbaril var. stilbocarpa (Leguminosae), an endangered tropical tree: recommendations for conservation

Deforestation in southeast Brazil has led to the extinction of Hymenaea courbaril var. stilbocarpa and ex situ conservation has been established. In this study, the levels of genetic diversity and the effective population size of H. courbaril in a germplasm bank were investigated using six nuclear microsatellite loci. A total of 79 and 91 alleles were found in 65 seed-trees and their 176 offspring, respectively. Offspring have a higher average number of alleles per locus (A = 15.2) than seed-trees (A = 13.2), but lower observed heterozygosity (offspring: H (o) = 0.566; seed-trees: H (o) = 0.607). The estimate of outcrossing rate shows that the study population is perfectly outcrossed (t (m) = 0.978, P > 0.05). Significant deviations from random mating were detected through mating among relatives and correlated matings. The average variance in effective population size for each family was 2.63, with a total effective population size retained in the bank of 170.1. These results confirm that the preserved population of H. courbaril retains substantial genetic variability.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Assessment of Subchondral Bone and Soft Tissues in Knee Osteoarthritis

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) has to be considered a whole joint disease. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) allows superior assessment of all joint tissues that may be involved in OA, such as the subchondral bone, synovium, ligaments, and periarticular soft tissues. Reliable MRI-based scoring systems are available to assess and quantify these structures and associated pathology. Cross-sectional and longitudinal evaluation has enabled practitioners to understand their relevance in explaining pain and structural progression.

Density of the Near Threatened jaguar Panthera onca in the caatinga of north-eastern Brazil

We report the first estimate of jaguar density in the semi-arid caatinga biome of north-eastern Brazil. During August-October 2007, in the Serra da Capivara National Park, we used camera traps to identify and count jaguars. Jaguar abundance and density were calculated using mark-recapture models. In a sampling effort of 1,249 camera-trap-nights we identified 12 adult jaguars and estimated an 2 abundance of 14 +/- 3.6 jaguars in an area of 524 km(2), i.e. a density of 2.67 +/- 1.00 jaguars per 100 km(2). This estimate is higher than in most other Brazilian biomes and indicates Serra da Capivara National Park as an important reserve for protecting jaguars in north-eastern Brazil.

Brazil and the institutionalization of South America: from hemispheric estrangement to cooperative hegemony

This article argues that Brazil went from a posture of estrangement in relation to the hemispheric project represented by the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) to a strategy of cooperative hegemony aimed at institutionalizing the South American space and increasing the costs of the FTAA for the United States. Although Brazil was initially isolated, US lack of leadership combined with events at the subregional level ended up turning the tide in the direction of Brazilian interests. These factors help to understand the current institutional configuration of South America.

Discovering "os ianques do sul": towards an entangled Luso-Hispanic history of Latin America

The article reconstructs the largely forgotten role of key Brazilian intellectuals in the Latins-versus-Anglo-Saxons debates that developed around 1898, emphasizing the embeddedness of their thinking in the transnational crossings of men and ideas within South America. It thus challenges the common depiction of late-nineteenth-century Latin Americanism as a purely Spanish American phenomenon and of the United States as its major catalyst, allowing a more nuanced understanding of this movement' s nature.