942 resultados para Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average Model with exogenous inputs
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Edited book, with 12,000 word contributed authored chapter 'Crossing borders, changing times'
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To get a better insight into the radiological features of industrial by-products that can be reused in building materials a review of the reported scientific data can be very useful. The current study is based on the continuously growing database of the By-BM (H2020-MSCA-IF-2015) project (By-products for Building Materials). Currently, the By-BM database contains individual data of about 431 by-products and 1095 building and raw materials. It was found that in case of the building materials the natural radionuclide content varied widely (Ra-226: <DL-27851 Bq/kg; Th-232: <DL-906 Bq/kg, K-40: <DL-17922 Bq/kg), more so than for the by-products (Ra-226: 7-3152 Bq/kg; Th-232: <DL-1350 Bq/kg, K-40: <DL-3001 Bq/kg). The average Ra-226, Th-232 and K-40 contents of the reported by-products were respectively 2.52, 2.35 and 0.39 times higher than the building materials. The gamma exposure of bulk building products was calculated according to IAEA Specific Safety Guide No. SSG-32 and the European Commission Radiation Protection 112 based I-index (EU BSS). It was found that in most cases the I-index without density consideration provides a significant overestimation in excess effective dose.
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In the recent years, vibration-based structural damage identification has been subject of significant research in structural engineering. The basic idea of vibration-based methods is that damage induces mechanical properties changes that cause anomalies in the dynamic response of the structure, which measures allow to localize damage and its extension. Vibration measured data, such as frequencies and mode shapes, can be used in the Finite Element Model Updating in order to adjust structural parameters sensible at damage (e.g. Young’s Modulus). The novel aspect of this thesis is the introduction into the objective function of accurate measures of strains mode shapes, evaluated through FBG sensors. After a review of the relevant literature, the case of study, i.e. an irregular prestressed concrete beam destined for roofing of industrial structures, will be presented. The mathematical model was built through FE models, studying static and dynamic behaviour of the element. Another analytical model was developed, based on the ‘Ritz method’, in order to investigate the possible interaction between the RC beam and the steel supporting table used for testing. Experimental data, recorded through the contemporary use of different measurement techniques (optical fibers, accelerometers, LVDTs) were compared whit theoretical data, allowing to detect the best model, for which have been outlined the settings for the updating procedure.
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The FIREDASS (FIRE Detection And Suppression Simulation) project is concerned with the development of fine water mist systems as a possible replacement for the halon fire suppression system currently used in aircraft cargo holds. The project is funded by the European Commission, under the BRITE EURAM programme. The FIREDASS consortium is made up of a combination of Industrial, Academic, Research and Regulatory partners. As part of this programme of work, a computational model has been developed to help engineers optimise the design of the water mist suppression system. This computational model is based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and is composed of the following components: fire model; mist model; two-phase radiation model; suppression model and detector/activation model. The fire model - developed by the University of Greenwich - uses prescribed release rates for heat and gaseous combustion products to represent the fire load. Typical release rates have been determined through experimentation conducted by SINTEF. The mist model - developed by the University of Greenwich - is a Lagrangian particle tracking procedure that is fully coupled to both the gas phase and the radiation field. The radiation model - developed by the National Technical University of Athens - is described using a six-flux radiation model. The suppression model - developed by SINTEF and the University of Greenwich - is based on an extinguishment crietrion that relies on oxygen concentration and temperature. The detector/ activation model - developed by Cerberus - allows the configuration of many different detector and mist configurations to be tested within the computational model. These sub-models have been integrated by the University of Greenwich into the FIREDASS software package. The model has been validated using data from the SINTEF/GEC test campaigns and it has been found that the computational model gives good agreement with these experimental results. The best agreement is obtained at the ceiling which is where the detectors and misting nozzles would be located in a real system. In this paper the model is briefly described and some results from the validation of the fire and mist model are presented.
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Abstract not available
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The hydro dynamical actions in big Lakes directly influence dynamic, physical and chemical affairs. The circulation's models and temperature have something to do with the movements of fluids, and analysis for circulation in Caspian sea is because of the lack of observation through which the circulations and out comings are determined. Through the studies, three dimensional simulations (Large- Scale) are planned and performed, according to Smolakiewicz and Margolin works. This is a non- hydrostatic and Boussinesq approximation is used in its formulation is used in its formulation on the basis of Lipps (1990) theorem and curve lines, the fluid is constant adiabatic and stratified, and the wind power is considered zero. The profile of speed according to previous depth and before ridge can be drawn on the basis of density available between northern and southern ridges. The circulation field is drawn from 3 cm/s to 13 cm/s on the plate z= 5 cm , the vertical changes of speed on the plate is 0.02 m/s. Vertical profile , horizontal speed in previous on, and after the ridges on are drawn on different spaces. It changes from 0.5 cm/s to 1 cm/s before ridges.
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In refrigeration systems a small amount of compressor lubricant is entrained in the refrigerant and circulated through the system, where some is retained in each component. The suction line to the compressor has the largest potential for oil retention. This paper presents results from an experimental apparatus that has been constructed to circulate POE (polyolester) oil and R410A at a controlled mass flux, OCR (oil in circulation ratio), and apparent superheat, and to directly measure the pressure drop and mass of oil retained in horizontal and vertical suction lines. The bulk vapor velocity and overall void fraction are determined from direct mass and temperature measurements. The oil retention, pressure drop, and flow regimes near the minimum ASHRAE recommended mass flux condition are explored. It was found that oil retention begins to increase sharply even above the minimum recommended flux, so conditions near the minimum should be avoided. Two relationships were developed to predict the oil retention in the vertical and horizontal suction lines. The average error from the predictions method was 10.9% for the vertical tube, and 7.9% for the horizontal tube.
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Objetivo: Analisar a relação entre o peso ao nascer (PN) e o tempo de aleitamento materno (AM) com o atual estado nutricional de crianças de dois a seis anos de idade. Métodos: Estudo observacional, quantitativo e do tipo transversal, realizado com crianças, independentemente do sexo, com idades entre dois a seis anos, matriculadas em sete escolas de educação infantil da rede municipal de um município do interior do Rio Grande do Sul (RS), no período de junho a agosto de 2014. Participaram 353 crianças, aferindo-se peso e altura, após os pais terem respondido a um questionário de Peso ao Nascer (PN) e tempo de aleitamento materno. Resultados: A média de aleitamento materno exclusivo foi de 3,47 ± 2,81 meses. A maioria das crianças (50,7%, n=179) encontrou-se em risco de sobrepeso ou sobrepeso para a idade, conforme o Índice de Massa Corporal (IMC). O PN apresentou correlação positiva com a altura atual (r=0,164, p=0,002) e com o peso atual (r=0,180, p=0,001). O PN foi significativamente maior entre os meninos (p=0,003), e o tempo de AM associado à alimentação complementar foi significativamente maior entre as meninas (p=0,024). Conclusão: Os resultados sugerem que o peso ao nascer influencia o ganho de peso nos seis primeiros anos de vida, com maior destaque para os meninos; e o tempo de amamentação associado à alimentação complementar foi maior entre as meninas.
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International audience
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A chapter linking universities and welfare states to permanent financial austerity can take a shorter or a longer historical perspective. This chapter looks further back (to the postwar expansion of European welfare states) to better understand future transformations of both public institutions. Their long-term sustainability problems did not start with the financial crisis of 2008 but have been growing since the 1970s (Schäfer and Streeck 2013; Bonoli and Natali 2012; Hay and Wincott 2012). Financial austerity is not a post-crisis phenomenon. As a concept, it was used in welfare state research at least a decade earlier, although it does not seem to have been used in higher education studies until recently. Two quotations bring us to the heart of the matter: welfare states and universities are currently changing under adverse financial conditions caused by an array of interrelating and mutually reinforcing forces and their long-term financial sustainability is at stake across Europe. The welfare state is a “particular trademark of the European social model” (Svallfors 2012: 1), “the jewel in the crown” and a “fundamental part of what Europe stands for” (Giddens 2006: 14), as are tuition-free universities, the cornerstone of intergenerational social mobility in Continental Europe. The past trajectories of major types of welfare states and of universities in Europe tend to go hand in hand: first vastly expanding following the Second World War, and especially in the 1960s and 1970s, and then being in the state of permanent resource-driven and legitimacy-based “crisis” in the last two decades. Welfare states and universities, two critically important public institutions, seem to be under heavy attacks from the public, the media and politicians. Their long-term sustainability is being questioned, and solutions to their (real and perceived) problems are being sought at global, European, and national levels.
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This dissertation describes two studies on macroeconomic trends and cycles. The first chapter studies the impact of Information Technology (IT) on the U.S. labor market. Over the past 30 years, employment and income shares of routine-intensive occupations have declined significantly relative to nonroutine occupations, and the overall U.S. labor income share has declined relative to capital. Furthermore, the decline of routine employment has been largely concentrated during recessions and ensuing recoveries. I build a model of unbalanced growth to assess the role of computerization and IT in driving these labor market trends and cycles. I augment a neoclassical growth model with exogenous IT progress as a form of Routine-Biased Technological Change (RBTC). I show analytically that RBTC causes the overall labor income share to follow a U-shaped time path, as the monotonic decline of routine labor share is increasingly offset by the monotonic rise of nonroutine labor share and the elasticity of substitution between the overall labor and capital declines under IT progress. Quantitatively, the model explains nearly all the divergence between routine and nonroutine labor in the period 1986-2014, as well as the mild decline of the overall labor share between 1986 and the early 2000s. However, the model with IT progress alone cannot explain the accelerated decline of labor income share after the early 2000s, suggesting that other factors, such as globalization, may have played a larger role in this period. Lastly, when nonconvex labor adjustment costs are present, the model generates a stepwise decline in routine labor hours, qualitatively consistent with the data. The timing of these trend adjustments can be significantly affected by aggregate productivity shocks and concentrated in recessions. The second chapter studies the implications of loss aversion on the business cycle dynamics of aggregate consumption and labor hours. Loss aversion refers to the fact that people are distinctively more sensitive to losses than to gains. Loss averse agents are very risk averse around the reference point and exhibit asymmetric responses to positive and negative income shocks. In an otherwise standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) model, I study loss aversion in both consumption alone and consumption-and-leisure together. My results indicate that how loss aversion affects business cycle dynamics depends critically on the nature of the reference point. If, for example, the reference point is status quo, loss aversion dramatically lowers the effective inter-temporal rate of substitution and induces excessive consumption smoothing. In contrast, if the reference point is fixed at a constant level, loss aversion generates a flat region in the decision rules and asymmetric impulse responses to technology shocks. Under a reasonable parametrization, loss aversion has the potential to generate asymmetric business cycles with deeper and more prolonged recessions.
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We consider a spectrally-negative Markov additive process as a model of a risk process in a random environment. Following recent interest in alternative ruin concepts, we assume that ruin occurs when an independent Poissonian observer sees the process as negative, where the observation rate may depend on the state of the environment. Using an approximation argument and spectral theory, we establish an explicit formula for the resulting survival probabilities in this general setting. We also discuss an efficient evaluation of the involved quantities and provide a numerical illustration.
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Doctor of Philosophy in Mathematics
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Poster presented at the Workshop on Flexible Models for Longitudinal and Survival Data with Applications in Biostatistics. University of Warwick, Coventry, UK, 27-29 July 2015
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This paper generalizes the model of Salant et al. (1983; Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 98, pp. 185–199) to a successive oligopoly model with product differentiation. Upstream firms produce differentiated goods, retailers compete in quantities, and supply contracts are linear. We show that if retailers buy from all producers, downstream mergers do not affect wholesale prices. Our result replicates that of Salant's, where mergers are not profitable unless the size of the merged firm exceeds 80 per cent of the industry. This result is robust to the type of competition.