Infant mortality model for lifetime data

In this paper we introduce a parametric model for handling lifetime data where an early lifetime can be related to the infant-mortality failure or to the wear processes but we do not know which risk is responsible for the failure. The maximum likelihood approach and the sampling-based approach are used to get the inferences of interest. Some special cases of the proposed model are studied via Monte Carlo methods for size and power of hypothesis tests. To illustrate the proposed methodology, we introduce an example consisting of a real data set.

Biomarkers of extracellular matrix metabolism (MMP-9 and TIMP-1) and risk of stroke, myocardial infarction and cause-specific mortality : cohort study

Objective: Turnover of the extracellular matrix in all solid organs is governed mainly by a balance between the degrading matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their tissue inhibitors (TIMPs). An altered extracellular matrix metabolism has been implicated in a variety of diseases. We investigated relations of serum levels of MMP-9 and TIMP-1 to mortality risk from an etiological perspective. Design: The prospective Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) cohort, followed from 1991–1995 for up to 18.1 years. A random population-based sample of 1,082 71-year-old men, no loss to follow-up. Endpoints were all-cause (n = 628), cardiovascular (n = 230), non-cardiovascular (n = 398) and cancer mortality (n = 178), and fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction (n = 138) or stroke (n = 163). Results: Serum MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels were associated with risk of all-cause mortality (Cox proportional hazard ratio [HR] per standard deviation 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.19; and 1.11, 1.02–1.20; respectively). TIMP-1 levels were mainly related to risks of cardiovascular mortality and stroke (HR per standard deviation 1.22, 95% CI 1.09–1.37; and 1.18, 1.04–1.35; respectively). All relations except those of TIMP-1 to stroke risk were attenuated by adjustment for cardiovascular disease risk factors. Relations in a subsample without cardiovascular disease or cancer were similar to those in the total sample. Conclusion: In this community-based cohort of elderly men, serum MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels were related to mortality risk. An altered extracellular matrix metabolism may be involved in several detrimental pathways, and circulating MMP-9 or TIMP-1 levels may be relevant markers thereof.

Association of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 with nephropathy, cardiovascular events, and total mortality in type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 (sTNFR1 and sTNFR2) contribute to experimental diabetic kidney disease, a condition with substantially increased cardiovascular risk when present in patients. Therefore, we aimed to explore the levels of sTNFRs, and their association with prevalent kidney disease, incident cardiovascular disease, and risk of mortality independently of baseline kidney function and microalbuminuria in a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes. In pre-defined secondary analyses we also investigated whether the sTNFRs predict adverse outcome in the absence of diabetic kidney disease. METHODS: The CARDIPP study, a cohort study of 607 diabetes patients [mean age 61 years, 44 % women, 45 cardiovascular events (fatal/non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke) and 44 deaths during follow-up (mean 7.6 years)] was used. RESULTS: Higher sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 were associated with higher odds of prevalent kidney disease [odd ratio (OR) per standard deviation (SD) increase 1.60, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.32-1.93, p < 0.001 and OR 1.54, 95 % CI 1.21-1.97, p = 0.001, respectively]. In Cox regression models adjusting for age, sex, glomerular filtration rate and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, higher sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 predicted incident cardiovascular events [hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase, 1.66, 95 % CI 1.29-2.174, p < 0.001 and HR 1.47, 95 % CI 1.13-1.91, p = 0.004, respectively]. Results were similar in separate models with adjustments for inflammatory markers, HbA1c, or established cardiovascular risk factors, or when participants with diabetic kidney disease at baseline were excluded (p < 0.01 for all). Both sTNFRs were associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATIONS: Higher circulating sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 are associated with diabetic kidney disease, and predicts incident cardiovascular disease and mortality independently of microalbuminuria and kidney function, even in those without kidney disease. Our findings support the clinical utility of sTNFRs as prognostic markers in type 2 diabetes.

Effect of facilitation of local maternal-and-newborn stakeholder groups on neonatal mortality : cluster-randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Facilitation of local women's groups may reportedly reduce neonatal mortality. It is not known whether facilitation of groups composed of local health care staff and politicians can improve perinatal outcomes. We hypothesised that facilitation of local stakeholder groups would reduce neonatal mortality (primary outcome) and improve maternal, delivery, and newborn care indicators (secondary outcomes) in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In a cluster-randomized design 44 communes were allocated to intervention and 46 to control. Laywomen facilitated monthly meetings during 3 years in groups composed of health care staff and key persons in the communes. A problem-solving approach was employed. Births and neonatal deaths were monitored, and interviews were performed in households of neonatal deaths and of randomly selected surviving infants. A latent period before effect is expected in this type of intervention, but this timeframe was not pre-specified. Neonatal mortality rate (NMR) from July 2008 to June 2011 was 16.5/1,000 (195 deaths per 11,818 live births) in the intervention communes and 18.4/1,000 (194 per 10,559 live births) in control communes (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.96 [95% CI 0.73-1.25]). There was a significant downward time trend of NMR in intervention communes (p = 0.003) but not in control communes (p = 0.184). No significant difference in NMR was observed during the first two years (July 2008 to June 2010) while the third year (July 2010 to June 2011) had significantly lower NMR in intervention arm: adjusted OR 0.51 (95% CI 0.30-0.89). Women in intervention communes more frequently attended antenatal care (adjusted OR 2.27 [95% CI 1.07-4.8]). CONCLUSIONS: A randomized facilitation intervention with local stakeholder groups composed of primary care staff and local politicians working for three years with a perinatal problem-solving approach resulted in increased attendance to antenatal care and reduced neonatal mortality after a latent period. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN44599712. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

High female mortality resulting in herd collapse in free-ranging domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in Sweden

Reindeer herding in Sweden is a form of pastoralism practised by the indigenous Sami population. The economy is mainly based on meat production. Herd size is generally regulated by harvest in order not to overuse grazing ranges and keep a productive herd. Nonetheless, herd growth and room for harvest is currently small in many areas. Negative herd growth and low harvest rate were observed in one of two herds in a reindeer herding community in Central Sweden. The herds (A and B) used the same ranges from April until the autumn gathering in October-December, but were separated on different ranges over winter. Analyses of capture-recapture for 723 adult female reindeer over five years (2007-2012) revealed high annual losses (7.1% and 18.4%, for herd A and B respectively). A continuing decline in the total reindeer number in herd B demonstrated an inability to maintain the herd size in spite of a very small harvest. An estimated breakpoint for when herd size cannot be kept stable confirmed that the observed female mortality rate in herd B represented a state of herd collapse. Lower calving success in herd B compared to A indicated differences in winter foraging conditions. However, we found only minor differences in animal body condition between the herds in autumn. We found no evidence that a lower autumn body mass generally increased the risk for a female of dying from one autumn to the next. We conclude that the prime driver of the on-going collapse of herd B is not high animal density or poor body condition. Accidents or disease seem unlikely as major causes of mortality. Predation, primarily by lynx and wolverine, appears to be the most plausible reason for the high female mortality and state of collapse in the studied reindeer herding community.

Diabetes mellitus : magnitude das hospitalizações na rede pública do Brasil, 1999-2001

Contexto: O diabetes mellitus (DM) é uma causa importante de morbimortalidade nas sociedades ocidentais devido à carga de sofrimento, incapacidade, perda de produtividade e morte prematura que provoca. No Brasil, seu impacto econômico é desconhecido. Objetivos: Dimensionar a participação do DM nas hospitalizações da rede pública brasileira (1999-2001), colaborando na avaliação dos custos diretos. Especificamente, analisar as hospitalizações (327.800) e os óbitos hospitalares (17.760) por DM como diagnóstico principal (CID-10 E10-E14 e procedimento realizado) e estimar as hospitalizações atribuíveis ao DM, incluindo as anteriores e aquelas por complicações crônicas (CC) e condições médicas gerais (CMG). Métodos: A partir de dados do Sistema de Informação Hospitalar do Sistema Único de Saúde (SIH/SUS) (37 milhões de hospitalizações), foram calculados indicadores por região de residência do paciente e sexo (ajustados por idade pelo método direto, com intervalos de confiança de 95%), faixas etárias, médias de permanência e de gastos por internação e populacional em US$. Realizou-se regressão logística múltipla para o desfecho óbito. As prevalências de DM foram combinadas aos riscos relativos de hospitalização por CC e CMG (metodologia do risco atribuível) e somadas às internações por DM como diagnóstico principal. Utilizou-se análise de sensibilidade para diferentes prevalências e riscos relativos. Resultados: Os coeficientes de hospitalizações e de óbitos hospitalares e a letalidade por DM como diagnóstico principal atingiram respectivamente 6,4/104hab., 34,9/106hab. e 5,4%. As mulheres apresentaram os coeficientes mais elevados, porém os homens predominaram na letalidade em todas as regiões. O gasto médio (US$ 150,59) diferiu significativamente entre as internações com e sem óbito, mas a média de permanência (6,4 dias) foi semelhante. O gasto populacional equivaleu a US$ 969,09/104hab. As razões de chances de óbito foram maiores para homens, pacientes ≥75 anos, e habitantes das regiões Nordeste e Sudeste. As hospitalizações atribuíveis ao DM foram estimadas em 836,3 mil/ano (49,3/104hab.), atingindo US$ 243,9 milhões/ano (US$ 14,4 mil/104hab.). DM como diagnóstico principal (13,1%), CC (41,5%) e CMG (45,4%) responderam por 6,7%, 51,4% e 41,9% respectivamente dos gastos. O valor médio das internações atribuíveis (US$ 292) situou-se 36% acima das não-atribuíveis. As doenças vasculares periféricas apresentaram a maior diferença no valor médio entre hospitalizações atribuíveis e não-atribuíveis (24%), porém as cardiovasculares destacaram-se em quantidade (27%) e envolveram os maiores gastos (37%). Os homens internaram menos (48%) que as mulheres, porém com gasto total maior (53%). As internações de pacientes entre 45-64 anos constituíram o maior grupo (45%) e gastos (48%) enquanto os pacientes com ≥75, os maiores coeficientes de hospitalização (350/104hab.) e de despesa (US$ 93,4 mil/104hab.). As regiões mais desenvolvidas gastaram o dobro (/104hab.) em relação às demais. Considerações Finais e Recomendações: As configurações no consumo de serviços hospitalares foram semelhantes às de países mais desenvolvidos, com importantes desigualdades regionais e de sexo. O gasto governamental exclusivamente com hospitalizações atribuíveis ao DM foi expressivo (2,2% do orçamento do Ministério da Saúde). A ampliação de atividades preventivas poderia diminuir a incidência do DM, reduzir a necessidade de internações, minimizar as complicações e minorar a severidade de outras condições médicas mais gerais.

Water for life : the impact of the privatization of water services on child mortality

While most countries are committed to increasing access to safe water and thereby reducing child mortality, there is little consensus on how to actually improve water services. One important proposal under discussion is whether to privatize water provision. In the 1990s Argentina embarked on one of the largest privatization campaigns in the world including the privatization of local water companies covering approximately 30 percent of the country’s municipalities. Using the varia tion in ownership of water provision across time and space generated by the privatization process, we find that child mortality fell 8 percent in the areas that privatized their water services; and that the effect was largest (26 percent) in the poorest areas. We check the robustness of these estimates using cause specific mortality. While privatization is associated with significant reductions in deaths from infectious and parasitic diseases, it is uncorrelated with deaths from causes unrelated to water conditions.

Fertility and the value of Life

The value of life methodology has been recently applied to a wide range of contexts as a means to evaluate welfare gains attributable to mortality reductions and health improvements. Yet, it suffers from an important methodological drawback: it does not incorporate into the analysis child mortality, individuals’ decisions regarding fertility, and their altruism towards offspring. Two interrelated dimensions of fertility choice are potentially essential in evaluating life expectancy and health related gains. First, child mortality rates can be very important in determining welfare in a context where individuals choose the number of children they have. Second, if altruism motivates fertility, life expectancy gains at any point in life have a twofold effect: they directly increase utility via increased survival probabilities, and they increase utility via increased welfare of the offspring. We develop a manageable way to deal with value of life valuations when fertility choices are endogenous and individuals are altruistic towards their offspring. We use the methodology developed in the paper to value the reductions in mortality rates experienced by the US between 1965 and 1995. The calculations show that, with a very conservative set of parameters, altruism and fertility can easily double the value of mortality reductions for a young adult, when compared to results obtained using the traditional value of life methodology.

Project Pró-Natal: population-based study of perinatal and infant mortality in Natal, Northeast Brazil

RAMOS, Ana Maria de Oliveira et al. Project Pró-Natal: population-based study of perinatal and infant mortality in Natal, Northeast Brazil. Pediatric and Developmental Pathology, v.3, n.1, p.29-35, 2000

Estimating mortality in laying hens as the environmental temperature increases

Layer mortality due to heat stress is an important economic loss for the producer. The aim of this study was to determine the mortality pattern of layers reared in the region of Bastos, SP, Brazil, according to external environment and bird age. Data mining technique were used based on monthly mortality records of hens in production, 135 poultry houses, from January 2004 to August 2008. The external environment was characterized according maximum and minimum temperatures, obtained monthly at the meteorological station CATI in the city of Tupa, SP, Brazil. Mortality was classified as normal (<= 1.2%) or high (> 1.2%), considering the mortality limits mentioned in literature. Data mining technique produced a decision tree with nine levels and 23 leaves, with 62.6% of overall accuracy. The hit rate for the High class was 64.1% and 59.9% for Normal class. The decision tree allowed finding a pattern in the mortality data, generating a model for estimating mortality based on the thermal environment and bird age.

Characterization of heat waves affecting mortality rates of broilers between 29 days and market age

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mortality Risk in Insects

Understanding how and why insect numbers fluctuate through time and space has been a central theme in ecological research for more than a century. Life tables have been used to understand temporal and spatial patterns in insect numbers. In this study, we estimated cause-of-death probabilities for phytophagous insects using multiple decrement life tables and the irreplaceable mortality analytic technique. Multiple decrement life tables were created from 73 insect life tables published from 1954 to 2004. Irreplaceable mortality (the portion of mortality that cannot be replaced by another cause) from pathogens, predators, and parasitoids was 8.6 +/- 7.2, 7.8 +/- 4.9, and 6.2 +/- 1.6%, respectively. In contrast, the mean irreplaceable mortality from all non-natural enemy mortality factors (mortality from factors other than natural enemies) was 35.1 +/- 4.4%. Irreplaceable mortality from natural enemies was significantly lower compared with non-natural enemy factors. Our results may partially explain cases of unsuccessful efficacy in classical biological control, after successful establishment, by showing low irreplaceable mortality for natural enemies, including 5.2 +/- 1.6% for introduced natural enemies. We suggest that the environment (i.e., the degree of environmental stability) influences the magnitude of the irreplaceable mortality from natural enemies. Our results lead to several testable hypotheses and emphasize that it is not possible to estimate the effect of any mortality factor without considering its interaction with competing mortality factors, which has far-reaching consequences for population biology and applied ecology.

Effect of temperature on incubation period, embryonic mortality, hatch rate, egg water loss and partridge chick weight (Rhynchotus rufescens)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Mortality of Bemisia tabaci biotype B (sternorrhyncha: aleyrodidae) adults by aliphatic and aromatic synthetic sucrose esters

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)