The Hidden World of Multilateralism? Treaty Commitments of Newly Democratized States in Europe

Why do new EU democracies engage in multilateralism? The dominant explanation proposes that new democracies use international treaties to lock in domestic reforms. This article offers a novel explanation as to why new EU democracies participate in multilateral treaties. We argue that ratifying a treaty serves three external signaling purposes (addressing recognition concerns; increasing strategic autonomy, and pleasing the EU). We test our argument through a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods. First, we apply event history analysis. Drawing on a new ratification data set comprising 76 multilateral treaties, we illustrate the prominent role of new EU democracies in multilateralism as compared to other new democracies. Second, to assess the importance of external signaling in the decision to ratify multilateral treaties, we examine parliamentary ratification debates in selected Central and Eastern European countries. Third, we compare parliamentary discussions across European and non-European new democracies to demonstrate the different motives driving their approaches toward multilateralism.

Ecosystem impacts of feral rabbits on World Heritage sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island: A palaeoecological perspective

The introduction and establishment of non-indigenous species through human activities often poses a major threat to natural biodiversity. In many parts of the world management efforts are therefore focused on their eradication. The environment of World Heritage sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island has been severely damaged by non-indigenous species including rabbits, rats and mice, introduced from the late AD 1800s. An extensive eradication programme is now underway which aims to remove all rabbits and rodents. To provide a long-term context for assessing the Island's pre-invasion state, invasion impacts, and to provide a baseline for monitoring its recovery, we undertook a palaeoecological study using proxies in a lake sediment core. Sedimentological and diatom analyses revealed an unproductive catchment and lake environment persisted for ca. 7100 years prior to the introduction of the invasive species. After ca. AD 1898, unprecedented and statistically significant environmental changes occurred. Lake sediment accumulation rates increased >100 times due to enhanced catchment inputs and within-lake production. Total carbon and total nitrogen contents of the sediments increased by a factor of four. The diatom flora became dominated by two previously rare species. The results strongly suggest a causal link between the anthropogenic introduction of rabbits and the changes identified in the lake sediments. This study provides an example of how palaeoecology may be used to determine baseline conditions prior to the introduction of non-indigenous species, quantify the timing and extent of changes, and help monitor the recovery of the ecosystem and natural biodiversity following successful non-indigenous species eradication programmes.

Phase Structure of Radar Stratigraphic Horizons Within Antarctic Firn

We have recorded reflection profiles of firn through large areas of West Antarctica and part of the East Antarctic plateau using 400 MHz short-pulse radar. The locations show accumulation rates that vary from well above to well below the vertical radar resolution. Most reflection horizons have extensive lateral continuity, and are composed of distinctive wavelets with a consistent phase polarity sequence within their successive half-cycles. We modeled these waveforms, and conclude that they arise from thin, double layers of ice over hoar, which is consistent with the standard model of firn stratification. In addition, we conclude that ice/hoar layers are extensive throughout West Antarctica and also present (although more sparsely) beneath the Antarctic Plateau.

Antarctic Volcanic Flux Ratios from Law Dome Ice Cores

Explosive volcanic eruptions can inject large quantities of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere. The aerosols that result from oxidation of the sulphur dioxide can produce significant cooling of the troposphere by reflecting or absorbing solar radiation. It is possible to obtain an estimate of the relative stratospheric sulphur aerosol concentration produced by different volcanoes by comparing sulphuric acid fluxes determined by analysis of polar ice cores. Here, we use a non-sea-salt sulphate time series derived from three well-dated Law Dome ice cores to investigate sulphuric acid flux ratios for major eruptions over the period AD 1301-1995. We use additional data from other cores to investigate systematic spatial variability in the ratios. Only for the Kuwae eruption (Law Dome ice date AD 1459.5) was the H2SO4 flux larger than that deposited by Tambora (Law Dome ice date AD 1816.7).

West Antarctic Ice Streams

Solar heat is the acknowledged driving force for climatic change. However, ice sheets are also capable of causing climatic change. This property of ice sheets derives from the facts that ice and rock are crystalline whereas the oceans and atmosphere are fluids and that ice sheets are massive enough to depress the earth's crust well below sea level. These features allow time constants for glacial flow and isostatic compensation to be much larger than those for ocean and atmospheric circulation and therefore somewhat independent of the solar variations that control this circulation. This review examines the nature of dynamic processes in ice streams that give ice sheets their degree of independent behavior and emphasizes the consequences of viscoplastic instability inherent in anisotropic polycrystalline solids such as glacial ice. Viscoplastic instability and subglacial topography are responsible for the formation of ice streams near ice sheet margins grounded below sea level. As a result the West Antarctic marine ice sheet is inherently unstable and can be rapidly carved away by calving bays which migrate up surging ice streams. Analyses of tidal flexure along floating ice stream margins, stress and velocity fields in ice streams, and ice stream boundary conditions are presented and used to interpret ERTS 1 photomosaics for West Antarctica in terms of characteristic ice sheet crevasse patterns that can be used to monitor ice stream surges and to study calving bay dynamics.

Late Pleistocene Interactions of East and West Antarctic Ice-Flow Regimes: Evidence from the McMurdo Ice Shelf

We present new interpretations of deglaciation in McMurdo Sound and the western Ross Sea, with observationally based reconstructions of interactions between East and West Antarctic ice at the last glacial maximum (LGM), 16 000, 12 000, 8000 and 4000 sp. At the LGM? East Antarctic ice from Mulock Glacier split, one branch turned westward south of Ross Island but the other branch rounded Ross Island before flowing southwest into McMurdo Sound. This flow regime, constrained by an ice saddle north of Ross Island, is consistent with the reconstruction of Stuiver and others (1981a). After the LGM, grounding-line retreat was most rapid in areas with greatest water depth, especially along the Victoria Land coast. By 12 000 sp, the ice-now regime in McMurdo Sound changed to through-flowing Mulock Glacier ice, with lesser contributions from Koettlitz, Blue and Ferrar Glaciers, because the former ice saddle north of Ross Island was replaced by a dome. The modern flew regime was established similar to 4000 BP. Ice derived from high elevations on the Polar Plateau but now stranded on the McMurdo Ice Shelf, and the pattern of the Transantarctic Mountains erratics support our reconstructions of Mulock Glacier ice rounding Minna Bluff but with all ice from Skelton Glacier ablating south of the bluff. They are inconsistent with Drewry's (1979) LGM reconstruction that includes Skelton Glacier ice in the McMurdo-Sound through-flow. Drewry's (1979) model closely approximates our results for 12 000-4000 BP. Ice-sheet modeling holds promise for determining whether deglaciation proceeded by grounding-line retreat of an ice sheet that was largely stagnant, because it never approached equilibrium flowline profiles after the Ross Ice Shelf, grounded, or of a dynamic ice sheet with flowline profiles kept low by active ice streams that extended northward from present-day outlet glaciers after the Ross Ice Shelf grounded.

A 200 Year Sulfate Record from Sixteen Antarctic Ice Cores and Associations With Southern Ocean Sea-Ice Extent

Chemistry data from 16, 50-115 m deep, sub-annually dated ice cores are used to investigate spatial and temporal concentration variability of sea-salt (ss) SO42- and excess (xs) SO42- over West Antarctica and the South Pole for the last 200 years. Low-elevation ice-core sites in western West Antarctica contain higher concentrations Of SO42- as a result of cyclogenesis over the Ross Ice Shelf and proximity to the Ross Sea Polynya. Linear correlation analysis of 15 West Antarctic ice-core SO42- time series demonstrates that at several sites concentrations Of ssSO(4)(2-) are higher when sea-ice (SIE) extent is greater, and the inverse for XSS04. Concentrations Of XSS04 from the South Pole site (East Antarctica) are associated with SIE from the Weddell region, and West Antarctic XSSO42- concentrations are associated with SIE from the Bellingshausen-Amundsen-Ross region. The only notable rise of the last 200 years in xsSO(4)(2-), around 1940, is not related to SIE fluctuations and is most likely a result of increased xsSO(4)(2-) production in the mid-low latitudes and/or an increase in transport efficiency from the mid-low latitudes to central West Antarctica. These high-resolution records show that the source types and source areas Of ssSO(4)(2-) and xsSO(4)(2-) delivered to eastern and western West Antarctica and the South Pole differ from site to site but can best be resolved using records from spatial ice-core arrays such as the International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE).

The International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE): An Overview

From its original formulation in 1990 the International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE) has had as its primary aim the collection and interpretation of a continent-wide array of environmental parameters assembled through the coordinated efforts of scientists from several nations. ITASE offers the ground-based opportunities of traditional-style traverse travel coupled with the modern technology of CPS, crevasse detecting radar, satellite communications and multidisciplinary research. By operating predominantly in the mode of an oversnow traverse, ITASE offers scientists the opportunity to experience the dynamic range of the Antarctic environment. ITASE also offers an important interactive venue for research similar to that afforded by oceanographic research vessels and large polar field camps, without the cost of the former or the lack of mobility of the latter. More importantly, the combination of disciplines represented by ITASE provides a unique, multidimensional (space and time) view of the ice sheet and its history. ITASE has now collected > 20 000 km of snow radar, recovered more than 240 firn/ice cores (total length 7000m), remotely penetrated to similar to 4000m into the ice sheet, and sampled the atmosphere to heights of > 20 km.

An Ice-Core Proxy for Antarctic Circumpolar Zonal Wind Intensity

Using US National Centers for Environmental Prediction/US National Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis data, we investigate the relationships between crustal ion (nssCa(2+)) concentrations from three West Antarctic ice cores, namely, Siple Dome (SD), ITASE00-1 (IT001) and ITASE01-5 (IT015), and primary components of the climate system, namely, air pressure/geopotential height, zonal (u) and meridional (v) wind strength. Linear correlation analyses between nssCa(2+) concentrations and both air-pressure and wind fields for the period of overlap between records indicate that the SD nssCa(2+) variation is positively correlated with spring circumpolar zonal wind, while IT001 nssCa(2+) has a positive correlation with circumpolar zonal wind throughout the year (r > 0.3, p < 0.01). Intensified Southern Westerlies circulation is conducive to transport of more crustal aerosols to both sites. Further correlation analyses between nssCa(2+) concentrations from SD and IT001 and atmospheric circulation suggest that the high inland plateau (represented by core IT001) is largely influenced by transport from the upper troposphere. IT015 nssCa(2+) is negatively correlated with westerly wind in October and November, suggesting that stronger westerly circulation may weaken the transport of crustal species to IT015. Correlations of nssCa(2+) from the three ice cores with the Antarctic Oscillation index are consistent with results developed from the wind-field investigation. In addition, calibration between nssCa(2+) concentration and the multivariate El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index shows that crustal species transport to IT001 is enhanced during strong ENSO events.

Variability in Accumulation Rates from GPR Profiling on the West Antarctic Plateau

lsochronal layers in firn detected with ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and dated using results from ice-core analyses are used to calculate accumulation rates along a 100 km across-flow profile in West Antarctica. Accumulation rates are shown to be highly variable over short distances. Elevation measurements from global positioning system surveys show that accumulation rates derived from shallow horizons correlate well with surface undulations, which implies that wind redistribution of snow is the leading cause of this variability. Temporal changes in accumulation rate over 25-185 year intervals are smoothed to along-track length scales comparable to surface undulations in order to identify trends in accumulation that are likely related to changes in climate. Results show that accumulation rates along this profile have decreased in recent decades, which is consistent with core-derived time series of annual accumulation rates measured at the two ends of the radar profile. These results suggest that temporal variability observed in accumulation-rate records from ice cores and GPR profiles can be obscured by spatial influences, although it is possible to resolve temporal signals if the effects of local topography and ice flow are quantified and removed.