A Simple Accounting-based Valuation Model for the Debt Tax Shield

This paper describes a simple way to integrate the debt tax shield into an accounting-based valuation model. The market value of equity is determined by forecasting residual operating income, which is calculated by charging operating income for the operating assets at a required return that accounts for the tax benefit that comes from borrowing to raise cash for the operations. The model assumes that the firm maintains a deterministic financial leverage ratio, which tends to converge quickly to typical steady-state levels over time. From a practical point of view, this characteristic is of particular help, because it allows a continuing value calculation at the end of a short forecast period.

Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum

The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2 °C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6 °C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation when all forcing factors are applied during the Dalton Minimum (DM) – this effect is especially well visible for NOx/NOy. Thus, this study also shows the non-linear behaviour of the coupled chemistry-climate system. Finally, we conclude that especially UV and volcanic eruptions dominate the changes in the ozone, temperature and dynamics while the NOx field is dominated by the energetic particle precipitation. Visible radiation changes have only very minor effects on both stratospheric dynamics and chemistry.

Economic efficiency analysis of different strategies to control post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection in 3-weekly batch system farms.

The study assessed the economic efficiency of different strategies for the control of post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection (PCV2SI), which have a major economic impact on the pig farming industry worldwide. The control strategies investigated consisted on the combination of up to 5 different control measures. The control measures considered were: (1) PCV2 vaccination of piglets (vac); (2) ensuring age adjusted diet for growers (diets); (3) reduction of stocking density (stock); (4) improvement of biosecurity measures (bios); and (5) total depopulation and repopulation of the farm for the elimination of other major pathogens (DPRP). A model was developed to simulate 5 years production of a pig farm with a 3-weekly batch system and with 100 sows. A PMWS/PCV2SI disease and economic model, based on PMWS severity scores, was linked to the production model in order to assess disease losses. This PMWS severity scores depends on the combination post-weaning mortality, PMWS morbidity in younger pigs and proportion of PCV2 infected pigs observed on farms. The economic analysis investigated eleven different farm scenarios, depending on the number of risk factors present before the intervention. For each strategy, an investment appraisal assessed the extra costs and benefits of reducing a given PMWS severity score to the average score of a slightly affected farm. The net present value obtained for each strategy was then multiplied by the corresponding probability of success to obtain an expected value. A stochastic simulation was performed to account for uncertainty and variability. For moderately affected farms PCV2 vaccination alone was the most cost-efficient strategy, but for highly affected farms it was either PCV2 vaccination alone or in combination with biosecurity measures, with the marginal profitability between 'vac' and 'vac+bios' being small. Other strategies such as 'diets', 'vac+diets' and 'bios+diets' were frequently identified as the second or third best strategy. The mean expected values of the best strategy for a moderately and a highly affected farm were £14,739 and £57,648 after 5 years, respectively. This is the first study to compare economic efficiency of control strategies for PMWS and PCV2SI. The results demonstrate the economic value of PCV2 vaccination, and highlight that on highly affected farms biosecurity measures are required to achieve optimal profitability. The model developed has potential as a farm-level decision support tool for the control of this economically important syndrome.

Northern hemispheric winter warming pattern after tropical volcanic eruptions: Sensitivity to the ozone climatology

An important key for the understanding of the dynamic response to large tropical volcanic eruptions is the warming of the tropical lower stratosphere and the concomitant intensification of the polar vortices. Although this mechanism is reproduced by most general circulation models today, most models still fail in producing an appropriate winter warming pattern in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study ensemble sensitivity experiments were carried out with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to assess the influence of different ozone climatologies on the atmospheric dynamics and in particular on the northern hemispheric winter warming. The ensemble experiments were perturbed by a single Tambora-like eruption. Larger meridional gradients in the lower stratospheric ozone favor the coupling of zonal wind anomalies between the stratosphere and the troposphere after the eruption. The associated sea level pressure, temperature, and precipitation patterns are more pronounced and the northern hemispheric winter warming is highly significant. Conversely, weaker meridional ozone gradients lead to a weaker response of the winter warming and the associated patterns. The differences in the number of stratosphere-troposphere coupling events between the ensembles experiments indicate a nonlinear response behavior of the dynamics with respect to the ozone and the volcanic forcing.

Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium

The Earth’s climate system is driven by a complex interplay of internal chaotic dynamics and natural and anthropogenic external forcing. Recent instrumental data have shown a remarkable degree of asynchronicity between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations, thereby questioning the relative importance of internal versus external drivers of past as well as future climate variability1, 2, 3. However, large-scale temperature reconstructions for the past millennium have focused on the Northern Hemisphere4, 5, limiting empirical assessments of inter-hemispheric variability on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here, we introduce a new millennial ensemble reconstruction of annually resolved temperature variations for the Southern Hemisphere based on an unprecedented network of terrestrial and oceanic palaeoclimate proxy records. In conjunction with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction ensemble5, this record reveals an extended cold period (1594–1677) in both hemispheres but no globally coherent warm phase during the pre-industrial (1000–1850) era. The current (post-1974) warm phase is the only period of the past millennium where both hemispheres are likely to have experienced contemporaneous warm extremes. Our analysis of inter-hemispheric temperature variability in an ensemble of climate model simulations for the past millennium suggests that models tend to overemphasize Northern Hemisphere–Southern Hemisphere synchronicity by underestimating the role of internal ocean–atmosphere dynamics, particularly in the ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere. Our results imply that climate system predictability on decadal to century timescales may be lower than expected based on assessments of external climate forcing and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations5, 6 alone.

Infection of organotypic slice cultures from rat central nervous tissue with Neospora caninum: an alternative approach to study host-parasite interactions

Neospora caninum is an apicomplexan parasite which has emerged as an important cause of bovine abortion worldwide. Abortion is usually triggered by reactivation of dormant bradyzoites during pregnancy and subsequent congenital infection of the foetus, where the central nervous system appears to be most frequently affected. We here report on an organotypic tissue culture model for Neospora infection which can be used to study certain aspects of the cerebral phase of neosporosis within the context of a three-dimensionally organised neuronal network. Organotypic slice cultures of rat cortical tissue were infected with N. caninum tachyzoites, and the kinetics of parasite proliferation, as well as the proliferation-inhibitory effect of interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma), were monitored by either immunofluorescence, transmission electron microscopy, and a quantitative PCR-assay using the LightCycler instrument, respectively. In addition, the neuronal cytoskeletal elements, namely glial acidic protein filaments as well as actin microfilament bundles were shown to be largely colocalising with the pseudocyst periphery. This organotypic culture model for cerebral neosporosis provides a system, which is useful to study the proliferation, ultrastructural characteristics, development, and the interactions of N. caninum within the context of neuronal tissue, which at the same time can be modulated and influenced under controlled conditions, and will be useful in the future to gain more information on the cerebral phase of neosporosis.

Kuroshio Intrusion and the Circulation in the South China Sea

The Princeton Ocean Model is used to study the circulation in the South China Sea (SCS) and its seasonal transition. Kuroshio enters ( leaves) the SCS through the southern ( northern) portion of the Luzon Strait. The annually averaged net volume flux through the Luzon Strait is similar to2 Sv into the SCS with seasonal reversals. The inflow season is from May to January with the maximum intrusion of Kuroshio water reaching the western SCS during fall in compensation of summertime surface offshore transport associated with coastal upwelling. From February to April the net transport reverses from the SCS to the Pacific. The intruded Kuroshio often forms an anticyclonic current loop west of the Luzon Strait. The current loop separates near the Dongsha Islands with the northward branch continuously feeding the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) near the shelf break and the westward branch becoming the South China Sea Branch of Kuroshio on the slope, which is most apparent in the fall. The SCSWC appears from December to February on the seaward side of the shelf break, flowing eastward against the prevailing wind. Diagnosis shows that the onshore Ekman transport due to northeasterly monsoon generates upwelling when moving upslope, and the particular distributions of the density and sea level associated with the cross shelf motion supports the SCSWC.

Dispersal Modeling of Fish Early Life Stages: Sensitivity with Application to Atlantic Cod in the Western Gulf of Maine

As an initial step in establishing mechanistic relationships between environmental variability and recruitment in Atlantic cod Gadhus morhua along the coast of the western Gulf of Maine, we assessed transport success of larvae from major spawning grounds to nursery areas with particle tracking using the unstructured grid model FVCOM (finite volume coastal ocean model). In coastal areas, dispersal of early planktonic life stages of fish and invertebrate species is highly dependent on the regional dynamics and its variability, which has to be captured by our models. With state-of-the-art forcing for the year 1995, we evaluate the sensitivity of particle dispersal to the timing and location of spawning, the spatial and temporal resolution of the model, and the vertical mixing scheme. A 3 d frequency for the release of particles is necessary to capture the effect of the circulation variability into an averaged dispersal pattern of the spawning season. The analysis of sensitivity to model setup showed that a higher resolution mesh, tidal forcing, and current variability do not change the general pattern of connectivity, but do tend to increase within-site retention. Our results indicate strong downstream connectivity among spawning grounds and higher chances for successful transport from spawning areas closer to the coast. The model run for January egg release indicates 1 to 19 % within-spawning ground retention of initial particles, which may be sufficient to sustain local populations. A systematic sensitivity analysis still needs to be conducted to determine the minimum mesh and forcing resolution that adequately resolves the complex dynamics of the western Gulf of Maine. Other sources of variability, i.e. large-scale upstream forcing and the biological environment, also need to be considered in future studies of the interannual variability in transport and survival of the early life stages of cod.

3D morphometry using automated aortic segmentation in native MR angiography: an alternative to contrast enhanced MRA?

INTRODUCTION Native-MR angiography (N-MRA) is considered an imaging alternative to contrast enhanced MR angiography (CE-MRA) for patients with renal insufficiency. Lower intraluminal contrast in N-MRA often leads to failure of the segmentation process in commercial algorithms. This study introduces an in-house 3D model-based segmentation approach used to compare both sequences by automatic 3D lumen segmentation, allowing for evaluation of differences of aortic lumen diameters as well as differences in length comparing both acquisition techniques at every possible location. METHODS AND MATERIALS Sixteen healthy volunteers underwent 1.5-T-MR Angiography (MRA). For each volunteer, two different MR sequences were performed, CE-MRA: gradient echo Turbo FLASH sequence and N-MRA: respiratory-and-cardiac-gated, T2-weighted 3D SSFP. Datasets were segmented using a 3D model-based ellipse-fitting approach with a single seed point placed manually above the celiac trunk. The segmented volumes were manually cropped from left subclavian artery to celiac trunk to avoid error due to side branches. Diameters, volumes and centerline length were computed for intraindividual comparison. For statistical analysis the Wilcoxon-Signed-Ranked-Test was used. RESULTS Average centerline length obtained based on N-MRA was 239.0±23.4 mm compared to 238.6±23.5 mm for CE-MRA without significant difference (P=0.877). Average maximum diameter obtained based on N-MRA was 25.7±3.3 mm compared to 24.1±3.2 mm for CE-MRA (P<0.001). In agreement with the difference in diameters, volumes obtained based on N-MRA (100.1±35.4 cm(3)) were consistently and significantly larger compared to CE-MRA (89.2±30.0 cm(3)) (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS 3D morphometry shows highly similar centerline lengths for N-MRA and CE-MRA, but systematically higher diameters and volumes for N-MRA.

Articulated Statistical Shape Model-Based 2D-3D Reconstruction of a Hip Joint

In this paper, reconstruction of three-dimensional (3D) patient-specific models of a hip joint from two-dimensional (2D) calibrated X-ray images is addressed. Existing 2D-3D reconstruction techniques usually reconstruct a patient-specific model of a single anatomical structure without considering the relationship to its neighboring structures. Thus, when those techniques would be applied to reconstruction of patient-specific models of a hip joint, the reconstructed models may penetrate each other due to narrowness of the hip joint space and hence do not represent a true hip joint of the patient. To address this problem we propose a novel 2D-3D reconstruction framework using an articulated statistical shape model (aSSM). Different from previous work on constructing an aSSM, where the joint posture is modeled as articulation in a training set via statistical analysis, here it is modeled as a parametrized rotation of the femur around the joint center. The exact rotation of the hip joint as well as the patient-specific models of the joint structures, i.e., the proximal femur and the pelvis, are then estimated by optimally fitting the aSSM to a limited number of calibrated X-ray images. Taking models segmented from CT data as the ground truth, we conducted validation experiments on both plastic and cadaveric bones. Qualitatively, the experimental results demonstrated that the proposed 2D-3D reconstruction framework preserved the hip joint structure and no model penetration was found. Quantitatively, average reconstruction errors of 1.9 mm and 1.1 mm were found for the pelvis and the proximal femur, respectively.

Engineering an in vitro air-blood barrier by 3D bioprinting

Intensive efforts in recent years to develop and commercialize in vitro alternatives in the field of risk assessment have yielded new promising two- and three dimensional (3D) cell culture models. Nevertheless, a realistic 3D in vitro alveolar model is not available yet. Here we report on the biofabrication of the human air-blood tissue barrier analogue composed of an endothelial cell, basement membrane and epithelial cell layer by using a bioprinting technology. In contrary to the manual method, we demonstrate that this technique enables automatized and reproducible creation of thinner and more homogeneous cell layers, which is required for an optimal air-blood tissue barrier. This bioprinting platform will offer an excellent tool to engineer an advanced 3D lung model for high-throughput screening for safety assessment and drug efficacy testing.

Knowledge-Based Task Structure Planning for an Information Gathering Agent

An effective solution to model and apply planning domain knowledge for deliberation and action in probabilistic, agent-oriented control is presented. Specifically, the addition of a task structure planning component and supporting components to an agent-oriented architecture and agent implementation is described. For agent control in risky or uncertain environments, an approach and method of goal reduction to task plan sets and schedules of action is presented. Additionally, some issues related to component-wise, situation-dependent control of a task planning agent that schedules its tasks separately from planning them are motivated and discussed.

Antitumor activity of an Ets protein, PEA3, in breast cancer cell lines MDA-MB-361DYT2 and BT474M1

Polyomavirus enhancer activator 3 (PEA3) is a member of the Ets family of transcription factors. We demonstrated in a previous study that, through down-regulating the HER-2/neu oncogene at the transcriptional level, PEA3 can inhibit the growth and tumor development of HER-2/neu-overexpressing ovarian cancer cells. Here, we established stable clones of the human breast cancer cell line MDA-MB-361DYT2 that express PEA3 under the control of a tetracycline-inducible promoter. The expression of PEA3 in this cell line inhibited cell growth and resulted in cell cycle delay in the G1 phase independently of the HER-2/neu down-regulation. In an orthotopic breast cancer model, we showed that expression of PEA3 inhibited tumor growth and prolonged the survival of tumor-bearing mice. In a parallel experiment in another breast cancer cell line, BT474M1, we were unable to obtain stable PEA3-inducible transfectants, which suggests that PEA3 possessed a strong growth inhibitory effect in this cell line. Indeed, PEA3 coupled with the liposome SN2 demonstrated therapeutic effects in mice bearing tumors induced by BT474M1. These results provide evidence that the PEA3 gene could function as an antitumor and gene therapy agent for human breast cancers. ^

Chimpanzee: A predictive model for the human cytochrome P450 3A subfamily

The human cytochrome P450 3A (CYP3A) subfamily is responsible for most of the metabolism of therapeutic drugs; however, an adequate in vivo model has yet to be discovered. This study begins with an investigation of a controversial topic surrounding the human CYP3As--estrogen regulation. A novel approach to this topic was used by defining expression in the estrogen-responsive endometrium. This study shows that estrogen down-regulates CYP3A4 expression in the endometrium. On the other hand, analogous studies showed an increase in CYP3A expression as age increases in liver tissue. Following the discussion of estrogen regulation, is an investigation of the cross-species relationships among all of the CYP3As was completed. The study compares isoforms from piscines, avians, rodents, canines, ovines, bovines, and primates. Using the traditional phylogenetic analyses and employing a novel approach using exon and intron lengths, the results show that only another primate could be the best animal model for analysis of the regulation of the expression of the human CYP3As. This analysis also demonstrated that the chimpanzee seems to be the best available human model. Moreover, the study showed the presence and similarities of one additional isoform in the chimpanzee genome that is absent in humans. Based on these results, initial characterization of the chimpanzee CYP3A subfamily was begun. While the human genome contains four isoforms--CYP3A4, CYP3A5, CYP3A7, and CYP3A43--the chimpanzee genome has five, the four previously mentioned and CYP3A67. Both species express CYP3A4, CYP3A5, and CYP3A43, but humans express CYP3A7 while chimpanzees express CYP3A67. In humans, CYP3A4 is expressed at higher levels than the other isoforms, but some chimpanzee individuals express CYP3A67 at higher levels than CYP3A4. Such a difference is expected to alter significantly the total CYP3A metabolism. On the other hand, any study considering individual isoforms would still constitute a valid method of study for the human CYP3A4, CYP3A5, and CYP3A43 isoforms. ^

Effect of a lifestyle physical activity intervention on transtheoretical model variables

Purpose. To determine the effect a stage-based, lifestyle physical activity intervention has on Transtheoretical Model variables in a population of breast cancer survivors. ^ Methods. Sedentary breast cancer survivors (N=60) were randomized to either a standard care study condition or to a 6-month, 21-session intervention. The Transtheoretical Model variables stage of change, self-efficacy, decisional balance (pros and cons to exercise), and processes of change were measured at baseline, 3 months, and 6 months. ^ Results. Women in the lifestyle group had significantly higher self-efficacy than women in the standard care group (F=9.55, p=0.003). Although there was not a significant difference between the two groups for perceived pros of exercise, there was a significant difference between the groups for perceived cons of exercise. Women in the lifestyle group perceived significantly fewer cons of exercise at both 3 and 6 months compared with women in the standard care condition (F=5.416, p=0.025). Between baseline and the 6 month assessment, the intervention also had an effect on three of the processes of change, while seven of the processes were not significantly affected by the intervention. ^ Conclusions. Data from the pilot study suggest that a stage-based, lifestyle physical activity intervention has an effect on Transtheoretical Model variables, which have been shown to facilitate exercise adoption, and should be tested in a larger trial. ^