PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION – Evidence from the Black–Litterman model based fixed income portfolio

Over time the demand for quantitative portfolio management has increased among financial institutions but there is still a lack of practical tools. In 2008 EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre conducted a survey of European investment practices. It revealed that the majority of asset or fund management companies, pension funds and institutional investors do not use more sophisticated models to compensate the flaws of the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio optimization. Furthermore, tactical asset allocation managers employ a variety of methods to estimate return and risk of assets, but also need sophisticated portfolio management models to outperform their benchmarks. Recent development in portfolio management suggests that new innovations are slowly gaining ground, but still need to be studied carefully. This thesis tries to provide a practical tactical asset allocation (TAA) application to the Black–Litterman (B–L) approach and unbiased evaluation of B–L models’ qualities. Mean-variance framework, issues related to asset allocation decisions and return forecasting are examined carefully to uncover issues effecting active portfolio management. European fixed income data is employed in an empirical study that tries to reveal whether a B–L model based TAA portfolio is able outperform its strategic benchmark. The tactical asset allocation utilizes Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to create return forecasts from lagged values of asset classes as well as economic variables. Sample data (31.12.1999–31.12.2012) is divided into two. In-sample data is used for calibrating a strategic portfolio and the out-of-sample period is for testing the tactical portfolio against the strategic benchmark. Results show that B–L model based tactical asset allocation outperforms the benchmark portfolio in terms of risk-adjusted return and mean excess return. The VAR-model is able to pick up the change in investor sentiment and the B–L model adjusts portfolio weights in a controlled manner. TAA portfolio shows promise especially in moderately shifting allocation to more risky assets while market is turning bullish, but without overweighting investments with high beta. Based on findings in thesis, Black–Litterman model offers a good platform for active asset managers to quantify their views on investments and implement their strategies. B–L model shows potential and offers interesting research avenues. However, success of tactical asset allocation is still highly dependent on the quality of input estimates.

Economic capital allocation

For my Licentiate thesis, I conducted research on risk measures. Continuing with this research, I now focus on capital allocation. In the proportional capital allocation principle, the choice of risk measure plays a very important part. In the chapters Introduction and Basic concepts, we introduce three definitions of economic capital, discuss the purpose of capital allocation, give different viewpoints of capital allocation and present an overview of relevant literature. Risk measures are defined and the concept of coherent risk measure is introduced. Examples of important risk measures are given, e. g., Value at Risk (VaR), Tail Value at Risk (TVaR). We also discuss the implications of dependence and review some important distributions. In the following chapter on Capital allocation we introduce different principles for allocating capital. We prefer to work with the proportional allocation method. In the following chapter, Capital allocation based on tails, we focus on insurance business lines with heavy-tailed loss distribution. To emphasize capital allocation based on tails, we define the following risk measures: Conditional Expectation, Upper Tail Covariance and Tail Covariance Premium Adjusted (TCPA). In the final chapter, called Illustrative case study, we simulate two sets of data with five insurance business lines using Normal copulas and Cauchy copulas. The proportional capital allocation is calculated using TCPA as risk measure. It is compared with the result when VaR is used as risk measure and with covariance capital allocation. In this thesis, it is emphasized that no single allocation principle is perfect for all purposes. When focusing on the tail of losses, the allocation based on TCPA is a good one, since TCPA in a sense includes features of TVaR and Tail covariance.

Efficient Algorithms for Coastal Geographic Problems

The increasing performance of computers has made it possible to solve algorithmically problems for which manual and possibly inaccurate methods have been previously used. Nevertheless, one must still pay attention to the performance of an algorithm if huge datasets are used or if the problem iscomputationally difficult. Two geographic problems are studied in the articles included in this thesis. In the first problem the goal is to determine distances from points, called study points, to shorelines in predefined directions. Together with other in-formation, mainly related to wind, these distances can be used to estimate wave exposure at different areas. In the second problem the input consists of a set of sites where water quality observations have been made and of the results of the measurements at the different sites. The goal is to select a subset of the observational sites in such a manner that water quality is still measured in a sufficient accuracy when monitoring at the other sites is stopped to reduce economic cost. Most of the thesis concentrates on the first problem, known as the fetch length problem. The main challenge is that the two-dimensional map is represented as a set of polygons with millions of vertices in total and the distances may also be computed for millions of study points in several directions. Efficient algorithms are developed for the problem, one of them approximate and the others exact except for rounding errors. The solutions also differ in that three of them are targeted for serial operation or for a small number of CPU cores whereas one, together with its further developments, is suitable also for parallel machines such as GPUs.

Parental and Successor Liability in EU Competition Law Infringements

Under EU competition law, parent companies may be held jointly and severally liable for the competition law infringements committed by their subsidiaries. The possibility of holding parent companies liable demonstrates a significant exception from the idea of separate legal entities. However, it is not the only deviation developed under EU competition law. In cases, where the legal entity responsible for the anti-competitive conduct has changed its form, liability can be attributed to the new operator, in particular, to its successor. The principles of legal certainty and legitimate expectations are issues that surround the doctrines of parental and successor liability. The aim of this thesis is to present a comprehensive comparative analysis of the parental and successor liability doctrines and to clarify the conditions under which it is possible to attribute liability for the infringements of EU competition law. The main purpose is therefore to demonstrate the problems related to the allocation of liability and to discuss whether these liability principles, established to assure the effective enforcement of the EU competition rules, are good solutions. The research methods used in this thesis are the legal dogmatic approach and the comparative law approach. The former enables the possibility of using the case law and legislation as a framework in which the difficulties concerning the application of parental and successor liability can be discussed while the latter ensures the comparison of the characteristics and judgments. The doctrines of parental and successor liability are both well established, but the application practice has caused several difficulties. These problems derive from, inter alia, the broadness and disjointed developed of the doctrines. There has been much recent case law dealing with these issues and having the potential to open up a considerable risk and to allocate strict liability for parent and successor companies.

Solutions to water problems in the bottom of the pyramid market

Solving the water crisis in the developing world is a critical issue. Four billion people in the globe, so called the Base of the Pyramid (BoP) population suffer from inadequate access to safe drinking water, while millions die daily from waterborne diseases and lack of clean water. The BoP people desperately need to obtain a satisfactory access to safe water sources. In order to address the issue, this research has been carried out. To provide holistic consideration to the matter, comprehensive exploration of various causes of the water crisis and its impacts in developing countries were discussed. Then, various viable and relevant solutions to the problem have been thoroughly scrutinized, including scientific, rational, practical and speculative approaches, examination of existing methods, technologies and products at the BoP water market. The role of clean water to the sustainable development was specifically featured. The paper also has studied social and economic factors, actors and circumstances which affect the market development of clean water technologies in the BoP. Possibilities and potentials of successful business between foreign water enterprises and BoP consumers were considered, while primary obstacles are deliberated on, with suggestion of the ways to tackle them. Technologies and products which are needed by the poor must be affordable, sustainable and of an appropriate quality. The crucial question of technology transfer was soundly discussed with pointing out main hindrances on the way of its implementation between the developed and developing world. The means to overcome these barriers were properly observed as well. To explore to some extent the possibility and feasibility of technology transfer from Finland to the BoP sector, 3 case study analyses have been implemented. Personal discussions in form of interviews were conducted at Kemira, Outotec and Fenno Water, Finnish water treatment and supply enterprises. The results of the interviews shed light on the specific practical matters, actual obstacles and potential solutions of the technology transfer from Finland to low-income countries.

Variable-speed-drive-based detection methods for problems in fluid handling systems

Fluid handling systems account for a significant share of the global consumption of electrical energy. They also suffer from problems, which reduce their energy efficiency and increase life-cycle costs. Detecting or predicting these problems in time can make fluid handling systems more environmentally and economically sustainable to operate. In this Master’s Thesis, significant problems in fluid systems were studied and possibilities to develop variable-speed-drive-based detection methods for them was discussed. A literature review was conducted to find significant problems occurring in fluid handling systems containing pumps, fans and compressors. To find case examples for evaluating the feasibility of variable-speed-drive-based methods, queries were sent to industrial companies. As a result of this, the possibility to detect heat exchanger fouling with a variable-speed drive was analysed with data from three industrial cases. It was found that a mass flow rate estimate, which can be generated with a variable speed drive, can be used together with temperature measurements to monitor a heat exchanger’s thermal performance. Secondly, it was found that the fouling-related increase in the pressure drop of a heat exchanger can be monitored with a variable speed drive. Lastly, for systems where the flow device is speed controlled with by a pressure measurement, it was concluded that increasing rotational speed can be interpreted as progressing fouling in the heat exchanger.

The use of explicit algorithms and episodic context to teach subtraction to students with learning problems in mathematics /

This research attempted to address the question of the role of explicit algorithms and episodic contexts in the acquisition of computational procedures for regrouping in subtraction. Three groups of students having difficulty learning to subtract with regrouping were taught procedures for doing so through either an explicit algorithm, an episodic content or an examples approach. It was hypothesized that the use of an explicit algorithm represented in a flow chart format would facilitate the acquisition and retention of specific procedural steps relative to the other two conditions. On the other hand, the use of paragraph stories to create episodic content was expected to facilitate the retrieval of algorithms, particularly in a mixed presentation format. The subjects were tested on similar, near, and far transfer questions over a four-day period. Near and far transfer algorithms were also introduced on Day Two. The results suggested that both explicit and episodic context facilitate performance on questions requiring subtraction with regrouping. However, the differential effects of these two approaches on near and far transfer questions were not as easy to identify. Explicit algorithms may facilitate the acquisition of specific procedural steps while at the same time inhibiting the application of such steps to transfer questions. Similarly, the value of episodic context in cuing the retrieval of an algorithm may be limited by the ability of a subject to identify and classify a new question as an exemplar of a particular episodically deflned problem type or category. The implications of these findings in relation to the procedures employed in the teaching of Mathematics to students with learning problems are discussed in detail.

The dual role of students with behavioural problems: an analysis of their experiences as bullies and victims /

The present study examined the bullying experiences of a group of students, age 10-14 years, identified as having behaviour problems. A total often students participated in a series of mixed methodology activities, including self-report questionnaires, story telling exercises, and interview style joumaling. The main research questions were related to the prevalence of bully/victims and the type of bullying experiences in this population. Questionnaires gathered information about their involvement in bullying, as well as about psychological risk factors including normative beliefs about antisocial acts, impulsivity, problem solving, and coping strategies. Journal questions expanded on these themes and allowed students to explain their personal experiences as bullies and victims as well as provide suggestions for intervention. The overall results indicated that all of the ten students in this sample have participated in bullying as both a bully and a victim. This high prevalence of bully/victim involvement in students from behavioural classrooms is in sharp contrast with the general population where the prevalence is about 33%. In addition, a common thread was found that indicated that these students who participated in this study demonstrate characteristics of emotionally dysregulated reactive bullies. Theoretical implication and educational practices are discussed.