Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport and its influence on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin

The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central Spain), causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections, raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event, analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Because the reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only high water mark or palaeostage indicators may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123��������18 m3 s���1) using indirect methods, but one-dimensional hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates through an iterative process (127��������33 m3 s���1) and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves. Rainfall���Runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m3 s���1 is very unlikely to occur and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall amount (233��������27 mm). It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m) made the 1997 flood (~35-year return period) equivalent to the 50-year flood. This allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of specified magnitude, which, where large woody debris is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis.

Characterisation of flash floods in small ungauged mountain basins of Central Spain using an integrated approach

One of the main problems of flood hazard assessment in ungauged or poorly gauged basins is the lack of runoff data. In an attempt to overcome this problem we have combined archival records, dendrogeomorphic time series and instrumental data (daily rainfall and discharge) from four ungauged and poorly gauged mountain basins in Central Spain with the aim of reconstructing and compiling information on 41 flash flood events since the end of the 19th century. Estimation of historical discharge and the incorporation of uncertainty for the at-site and regional flood frequency analysis were performed with an empirical rainfall���runoff assessment as well as stochastic and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches. Results for each of the ungauged basins include flood frequency, severity, seasonality and triggers (synoptic meteorological situations). The reconstructed data series clearly demonstrates how uncertainty can be reduced by including historical information, but also points to the considerable influence of different approaches on quantile estimation. This uncertainty should be taken into account when these data are used for flood risk management.

A review of dendrogeomorphological research applied to flood risk analysis in Spain

Over the last forty years, applying dendrogeomorphology to palaeoflood analysis has improved estimates of the frequency and magnitude of past floods worldwide. This paper reviews the main results obtained by applying dendrogeomorphology to flood research in several case studies in Central Spain. These dendrogeomorphological studies focused on the following topics: (1) anatomical analysis to understand the physiological response of trees to flood damage and improve sampling efficiency; (2) compiling robust flood chronologies in ungauged mountain streams, (3) determining flow depth and estimating flood discharge using two-dimensional hydraulic modelling, and comparing them with other palaeostage indicators; (4) calibrating hydraulic model parameters (i.e. Manning roughness); and (5) implementing stochastic-based, cost���benefit analysis to select optimal mitigation measures. The progress made in these areas is presented with suggestions for further research to improve the applicability of dendrogeochronology to palaeoflood studies. Further developments will include new methods for better identification of the causes of specific types of flood damage to trees (e.g. tilted trees) or stable isotope analysis of tree rings to identify the climatic conditions associated with periods of increasing flood magnitude or frequency.

A new methodological protocol for the use of dendrogeomorphological data in flood risk analysis

Dendrogeomorphology uses information sources recorded in the roots, trunks and branches of trees and bushes located in the fluvial system to complement (or sometimes even replace) systematic and palaeohydrological records of past floods. The application of dendrogeomorphic data sources and methods to palaeoflood analysis over nearly 40 years has allowed improvements to be made in frequency and magnitude estimations of past floods. Nevertheless, research carried out so far has shown that the dendrogeomorphic indicators traditionally used (mainly scar evidence), and their use to infer frequency and magnitude, have been restricted to a small, limited set of applications. New possibilities with enormous potential remain unexplored. New insights in future research of palaeoflood frequency and magnitude using dendrogeomorphic data sources should: (1) test the application of isotopic indicators (16O/18O ratio) to discover the meteorological origin of past floods; (2) use different dendrogeomorphic indicators to estimate peak flows with 2D (and 3D) hydraulic models and study how they relate to other palaeostage indicators; (3) investigate improved calibration of 2D hydraulic model parameters (roughness); and (4) apply statistics-based cost���benefit analysis to select optimal mitigation measures. This paper presents an overview of these innovative methodologies, with a focus on their capabilities and limitations in the reconstruction of recent floods and palaeofloods.

Dendrogeomorphology in badlands: Methods, case studies and prospects

Soil and vegetation are interacting factors controlling erosion. Soil degradation processes may affect the normal tree and shrub development and inversely, vegetation can modulate the velocity and intensity of soil development or denudation. A dendrogeomorphological approach can be used to study these interactions, allowing to obtain a date and estimate mean or specific erosion rates. This is especially useful in an unrecorded badlands and gullied environments, where the scarce vegetation may be the only proxy available to quantify the different geomorphic processes which have occurred. This paper provides a fundamental review of the dendrogeomorphological methodology applied to erosion measurement in badlands. Focusing on the response of the vegetation to the geomorphic processes, this paper: (a) describes the methodology developed to estimate erosion rates with exposed roots; (b) shows new advances through case studies; and finally, (c) discusses future lines of research to reduce methodological uncertainties and for making dendrogeomorphology more widely applicable.

Counting scars on tree stems to assess rockfall hazards: A low effort approach, but how reliable?

Rockfall is a widespread and hazardous process in mountain environments, but data on past events are only rarely available. Growth-ring series from trees impacted by rockfall were successfully used in the past to overcome the lack of archival records. Dendrogeomorphic techniques have been demonstrated to allow very accurate dating and reconstruction of spatial and temporal rockfall activity, but the approach has been cited to be labor intensive and time consuming. In this study, we present a simplified method to quantify rockfall processes on forested slopes requiring less time and efforts. The approach is based on a counting of visible scars on the stem surface of Common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). Data are presented from a site in the Inn valley (Austria), where rocks are frequently detached from an ~ 200-m-high, south-facing limestone cliff. We compare results obtained from (i) the ���classical��� analysis of growth disturbances in the tree-ring series of 33 Norway spruces (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and (ii) data obtained with a scar count on the stem surface of 50 F. sylvatica trees. A total of 277 rockfall events since A.D. 1819 could be reconstructed from tree-ring records of P. abies, whereas 1140 scars were observed on the stem surface of F. sylvatica. Absolute numbers of rockfalls (and hence return intervals) vary significantly between the approaches, and the mean number of rockfalls observed on the stem surface of F. sylvatica exceeds that of P. abies by a factor of 2.7. On the other hand, both methods yield comparable data on the spatial distribution of relative rockfall activity. Differences may be explained by a great portion of masked scars in P. abies and the conservation of signs of impacts on the stem of F. sylvatica. Besides, data indicate that several scars on the bark of F. sylvatica may stem from the same impact and thus lead to an overestimation of rockfall activity.

Rolling stones and tree rings: A state of research on dendrogeomorphic reconstructions of rockfall

This progress report focuses on the contribution of tree-ring series to rockfall research and on recent development and challenges in the field. Dendrogeomorphic techniques have been used extensively since the early 2000s and several approaches have been developed to extract rockfall signals from tree-ring records of conifer trees. The reconstruction of rockfall chronologies has been hampered in the past by sample sizes that decrease as one goes back in time, as well as by a paucity of studies that include broadleaved tree species, which are in fact quite common in rockfall-prone environments. In this report, we propose a new approach considering impact probability and quantification of uncertainty in the reconstruction of rockfall time series as well as a quantitative estimate of presumably missed events. In addition, we outline new approaches and future perspectives for the inclusion of woody vegetation in hazard assessment procedures, and end with future thematic perspectives.

���Sweating meteorites���-Water-soluble salts and temperature variation in ordinary chondrites and soil from the hot desert of Oman

The common appearance of hygroscopic brine (���sweating���) on ordinary chondrites (OCs) from Oman during storage under room conditions initiated a study on the role of water-soluble salts on the weathering of OCs. Analyses of leachates from OCs and soils, combined with petrography of alteration features and a 11-month record of in situ meteorite and soil temperatures, are used to evaluate the role of salts in OC weathering. Main soluble ions in soils are Ca2+, SO42���, HCO3���, Na+, and Cl���, while OC leachates are dominated by Mg2+ (from meteoritic olivine), Ca2+ (from soil), Cl��� (from soil), SO42��� (from meteoritic troilite and soil), and iron (meteoritic). ���Sweating meteorites��� mainly contain Mg2+ and Cl���. The median Na/Cl mass ratio of leachates changes from 0.65 in soils to 0.07 in meteorites, indicating the precipitation of a Na-rich phase or loss of an efflorescent Na-salt. The total concentrations of water-soluble ions in bulk OCs ranges from 600 to 9000 ��g g���1 (median 2500 ��g g���1) as compared to 187���14140 ��g g���1 in soils (median 1148 ��g g���1). Soil salts dissolved by rain water are soaked up by meteorites by capillary forces. Daily heating (up to 66.3 ��C) and cooling of the meteorites cause a pumping effect, resulting in a strong concentration of soluble ions in meteorites over time. The concentrations of water-soluble ions in meteorites, which are complex mixtures of ions from the soil and from oxidation and hydrolysis of meteoritic material, depend on the degree of weathering and are highest at W3. Input of soil contaminants generally dominates over the ions mobilized from meteorites. Silicate hydrolysis preferentially affects olivine and is enhanced by sulfide oxidation, producing local acidic conditions as evidenced by jarosite. Plagioclase weathering is negligible. After completion of troilite oxidation, the rate of chemical weathering slows down with continuing Ca-sulfate contamination.

In-situ X-ray micro-diffraction studies of heterogeneous interfaces between cementitious materials and geological formations

In the present study the challenge of analyzing complex micro X-ray diffraction (microXRD) patterns from cement���clay interfaces has been addressed. In order to extract the maximum information concerning both the spatial distribution and the crystal structure type associated with each of the many diffracting grains in heterogeneous, polycrystalline samples, an approach has been developed in which microXRD was applied to thin sections which were rotated in the X-ray beam. The data analysis, performed on microXRD patterns collected from a filled vein of a cement���clay interface from the natural analogue in Maqarin (Jordan), and a sample from a two-year-old altered interface between cement and argillaceous rock, demonstrate the potential of this method.

Adapting agricultural land management to climate change: a regional multi-objective optimization approach

In several regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural systems. Changes in land management are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, including land-use changes and local adjustments of agricultural practices. In previous studies, options for adaptation have mostly been explored by testing alternative scenarios. Systematic explorations of land management possibilities using optimization approaches were so far mainly restricted to studies of land and resource management under constant climatic conditions. In this study, we bridge this gap and exploit the benefits of multi-objective regional optimization for identifying optimum land management adaptations to climate change. We design a multi-objective optimization routine that integrates a generic crop model and considers two climate scenarios for 2050 in a meso-scale catchment on the Swiss Central Plateau with already limited water resources. The results indicate that adaptation will be necessary in the study area to cope with a decrease in productivity by 0���10 %, an increase in soil loss by 25���35 %, and an increase in N-leaching by 30���45 %. Adaptation options identified here exhibit conflicts between productivity and environmental goals, but compromises are possible. Necessary management changes include (i) adjustments of crop shares, i.e. increasing the proportion of early harvested winter cereals at the expense of irrigated spring crops, (ii) widespread use of reduced tillage, (iii) allocation of irrigated areas to soils with low water-retention capacity at lower elevations, and (iv) conversion of some pre-alpine grasslands to croplands.

Adaptation options under climate change for multifunctional agriculture: a simulation study for western Switzerland

Besides its primary role in producing food and fiber, agriculture also has relevant effects on several other functions, such as management of renewable natural resources. Climate change (CC) may lead to new trade-offs between agricultural functions or aggravate existing ones, but suitable agricultural management may maintain or even improve the ability of agroecosystems to supply these functions. Hence, it is necessary to identify relevant drivers (e.g., cropping practices, local conditions) and their interactions, and how they affect agricultural functions in a changing climate. The goal of this study was to use a modeling framework to analyze the sensitivity of indicators of three important agricultural functions, namely crop yield (food and fiber production function), soil erosion (soil conservation function), and nutrient leaching (clean water provision function), to a wide range of agricultural practices for current and future climate conditions. In a two-step approach, cropping practices that explain high proportions of variance of the different indicators were first identified by an analysis of variance-based sensitivity analysis. Then, most suitable combinations of practices to achieve best performance with respect to each indicator were extracted, and trade-offs were analyzed. The procedure was applied to a region in western Switzerland, considering two different soil types to test the importance of local environmental constraints. Results show that the sensitivity of crop yield and soil erosion due to management is high, while nutrient leaching mostly depends on soil type. We found that the influence of most agricultural practices does not change significantly with CC; only irrigation becomes more relevant as a consequence of decreasing summer rainfall. Trade-offs were identified when focusing on best performances of each indicator separately, and these were amplified under CC. For adaptation to CC in the selected study region, conservation soil management and the use of cropped grasslands appear to be the most suitable options to avoid trade-offs.

Quantitative 3D strain analysis in analogue experiments: Integration of X-ray computed tomography and digital volume correlation techniques

The combination of scaled analogue experiments, material mechanics, X-ray computed tomography (XRCT) and Digital Volume Correlation techniques (DVC) is a powerful new tool not only to examine the 3 dimensional structure and kinematic evolution of complex deformation structures in scaled analogue experiments, but also to fully quantify their spatial strain distribution and complete strain history. Digital image correlation (DIC) is an important advance in quantitative physical modelling and helps to understand non-linear deformation processes. Optical non-intrusive (DIC) techniques enable the quantification of localised and distributed deformation in analogue experiments based either on images taken through transparent sidewalls (2D DIC) or on surface views (3D DIC). X-ray computed tomography (XRCT) analysis permits the non-destructive visualisation of the internal structure and kinematic evolution of scaled analogue experiments simulating tectonic evolution of complex geological structures. The combination of XRCT sectional image data of analogue experiments with 2D DIC only allows quantification of 2D displacement and strain components in section direction. This completely omits the potential of CT experiments for full 3D strain analysis of complex, non-cylindrical deformation structures. In this study, we apply digital volume correlation (DVC) techniques on XRCT scan data of ���solid��� analogue experiments to fully quantify the internal displacement and strain in 3 dimensions over time. Our first results indicate that the application of DVC techniques on XRCT volume data can successfully be used to quantify the 3D spatial and temporal strain patterns inside analogue experiments. We demonstrate the potential of combining DVC techniques and XRCT volume imaging for 3D strain analysis of a contractional experiment simulating the development of a non-cylindrical pop-up structure. Furthermore, we discuss various options for optimisation of granular materials, pattern generation, and data acquisition for increased resolution and accuracy of the strain results. Three-dimensional strain analysis of analogue models is of particular interest for geological and seismic interpretations of complex, non-cylindrical geological structures. The volume strain data enable the analysis of the large-scale and small-scale strain history of geological structures.