Numeracy and statistical reasoning on entering university

The relationship between mathematics and statistical reasoning frequently receives comment (Vere-Jones 1995, Moore 1997); however most of the research into the area tends to focus on mathematics anxiety. Gnaldi (2003) showed that in a statistics course for psychologists, the statistical understanding of students at the end of the course depended on students’ basic numeracy, rather than the number or level of previous mathematics courses the student had undertaken. As part of a study into the development of statistical thinking at the interface between secondary and tertiary education, students enrolled in an introductory data analysis subject were assessed regarding their statistical reasoning, basic numeracy skills, mathematics background and attitudes towards statistics. This work reports on some key relationships between these factors and in particular the importance of numeracy to statistical reasoning.

Lateralization of temporal lobe epilepsy based on resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and machine learning

Lateralization of temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) is critical for successful outcome of surgery to relieve seizures. TLE affects brain regions beyond the temporal lobes and has been associated with aberrant brain networks, based on evidence from functional magnetic resonance imaging. We present here a machine learning-based method for determining the laterality of TLE, using features extracted from resting-state functional connectivity of the brain. A comprehensive feature space was constructed to include network properties within local brain regions, between brain regions, and across the whole network. Feature selection was performed based on random forest and a support vector machine was employed to train a linear model to predict the laterality of TLE on unseen patients. A leave-one-patient-out cross validation was carried out on 12 patients and a prediction accuracy of 83% was achieved. The importance of selected features was analyzed to demonstrate the contribution of resting-state connectivity attributes at voxel, region, and network levels to TLE lateralization.

Populations of models, experimental designs and coverage of parameter space by Latin Hypercube and Orthogonal Sampling

In this paper we have used simulations to make a conjecture about the coverage of a t-dimensional subspace of a d-dimensional parameter space of size n when performing k trials of Latin Hypercube sampling. This takes the form P(k,n,d,t) = 1 - e^(-k/n^(t-1)). We suggest that this coverage formula is independent of d and this allows us to make connections between building Populations of Models and Experimental Designs. We also show that Orthogonal sampling is superior to Latin Hypercube sampling in terms of allowing a more uniform coverage of the t-dimensional subspace at the sub-block size level. These ideas have particular relevance when attempting to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analyses.

Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Structures of three different neutral polysaccharides of Acinetobacter baumannii, NIPH190, NIPH201, and NIPH615, assigned to K30, K45, and K48 capsule types, respectively, based on capsule biosynthesis gene clusters

Neutral capsular polysaccharides (CPSs) were isolated from Acinetobacter baumannii NIPH190, NIPH201, and NIPH615. The CPSs were found to contain common monosaccharides only and to be branched with a side-chain 1→3-linked β-d-glucopyranose residue. Structures of the oligosaccharide repeat units (K units) of the CPSs were elucidated by 1D and 2D 1H and 13C NMR spectroscopy. Novel CPS biosynthesis gene clusters, designated KL30, KL45, and KL48, were found at the K locus in the genome sequences of NIPH190, NIPH201, and NIPH615, respectively. The genetic content of each gene cluster correlated with the structure of the CPS unit established, and therefore, the capsular types of the strains studied were designated as K30, K45, and K48, respectively. The initiating sugar of each K unit was predicted, and glycosyltransferases encoded by each gene cluster were assigned to the formation of the linkages between sugars in the corresponding K unit.

Comparison of active-set method deconvolution and matched-filtering for derivation of an ultrasound transit time spectrum

The quality of ultrasound computed tomography imaging is primarily determined by the accuracy of ultrasound transit time measurement. A major problem in analysis is the overlap of signals making it difficult to detect the correct transit time. The current standard is to apply a matched-filtering approach to the input and output signals. This study compares the matched-filtering technique with active set deconvolution to derive a transit time spectrum from a coded excitation chirp signal and the measured output signal. The ultrasound wave travels in a direct and a reflected path to the receiver, resulting in an overlap in the recorded output signal. The matched-filtering and deconvolution techniques were applied to determine the transit times associated with the two signal paths. Both techniques were able to detect the two different transit times; while matched-filtering has a better accuracy (0.13 μs vs. 0.18 μs standard deviation), deconvolution has a 3.5 times improved side-lobe to main-lobe ratio. A higher side-lobe suppression is important to further improve image fidelity. These results suggest that a future combination of both techniques would provide improved signal detection and hence improved image fidelity.

Improving the outcomes of foot and ankle surgery. Professional impact of the Australasian College of Podiatric Surgeons' audit tool

Background Surgery is an example of expanded practice scope that enhances podiatry and incorporates inter-professional collaboration. By 2050 demand for foot and ankle procedures is predicted to rise nationally by 61.9%. Performance management of this increase motivated the development of an online audit tool. Developed in collaboration with the Australasian College of Podiatric Surgeons (ACPS), the ACPS audit tool provides real-time data capture and reporting. It is the first audit tool designed in Australia to support and improve the outcomes of foot and ankle surgery. Methods Audit activity in general, orthopaedic, plastic and podiatric surgery was examined using a case study design. Audit participation enablers and barriers were explored. Case study results guided a Delphi survey of international experts experienced or associated with foot and ankle surgery. Delphi survey-derived consensus informed modification of a generic data set from the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons (RACS). Based on the Delphi survey findings the ACPS online audit tool was developed and piloted. Reliability and validity of data entry and usability of this new tool was then assessed with an online survey. Results The case study found surgeon attitudes and behaviours positively impacted audit participation, and also indicated that audit data should be: (1) available in real time, (2) identify practice change, (3) applicable for safety and quality management, and; (4) useful for peer review discussion. The Delphi process established consensus on audit variables to be captured, including the modified RACS generic data set. 382 cases of foot and ankle surgery were captured across 3 months using the new tool. Data entry was found to be valid and reliable. Real-time outcome reporting and practice change identification impacted positively on safety and quality management and assisted peer review discussion. An online survey showed high levels of usability. Conclusions Surgeon contribution to audit tool development resulted in 100% audit participation. The data from the ACPS audit tool supported the ACPS submission to the Medical Services Advisory Committee to list podiatric surgery under Medicare, an outcome noted by the Federal Minister of Health.

Compression use during an exercise intervention and associated changes in breast cancer-related lymphoedema

Aim This study assessed the association between compression use and changes in lymphoedema observed in women with breast cancer-related lymphoedema who completed a 12 week exercise intervention. Methods This work uses data collected from a 12 week exercise trial, whereby women were randomly allocated into either aerobic-based only (n=21) or resistance-based only (n=20) exercise. Compression use during the trial was at the participant’s discretion. Differences in lymphoedema (measured by L-Dex score and inter-limb circumference difference [%]) and associated symptoms between those who wore, and did not wear compression during the 12 week intervention were assessed. We also explored participants’ reasons surrounding compression during exercise. Results No significant interaction effect between time and compression use for lymphoedema was observed. There was no difference between groups over time in the number or severity of lymphoedema symptoms. Irrespective of compression use, there were trends for reductions in the proportion of women reporting severe symptoms, but lymphoedema status did not change. Individual reasons for the use of compression, or lack thereof, varied markedly. Conclusion Our findings demonstrated an absence of a positive or negative effect from compression use during exercise on lymphoedema. Current and previous findings suggest the clinical recommendation that garments must be worn during exercise is questionable, and its application requires an individualised approach.

Insights into PBDE uptake, body burden, and elimination gained from Australian age–Concentration trends observed shortly after peak exposure

Background Population pharmacokinetic models combined with multiple sets of age– concentration biomonitoring data facilitate back-calculation of chemical uptake rates from biomonitoring data. Objectives We back-calculated uptake rates of PBDEs for the Australian population from multiple biomonitoring surveys (top-down) and compared them with uptake rates calculated from dietary intake estimates of PBDEs and PBDE concentrations in dust (bottom-up). Methods Using three sets of PBDE elimination half-lives, we applied a population pharmacokinetic model to the PBDE biomonitoring data measured between 2002–2003 and 2010–2011 to derive the top-down uptake rates of four key PBDE congeners and six age groups. For the bottom-up approach, we used PBDE concentrations measured around 2005. Results Top-down uptake rates of Σ4BDE (the sum of BDEs 47, 99, 100, and 153) varied from 7.9 to 19 ng/kg/day for toddlers and from 1.2 to 3.0 ng/kg/day for adults; in most cases, they were—for all age groups—higher than the bottom-up uptake rates. The discrepancy was largest for toddlers with factors up to 7–15 depending on the congener. Despite different elimination half-lives of the four congeners, the age–concentration trends showed no increase in concentration with age and were similar for all congeners. Conclusions In the bottom-up approach, PBDE uptake is underestimated; currently known pathways are not sufficient to explain measured PBDE concentrations, especially in young children. Although PBDE exposure of toddlers has declined in the past years, pre- and postnatal exposure to PBDEs has remained almost constant because the mothers’ PBDE body burden has not yet decreased substantially.

Sleep quantity and quality during heat-based training and the effects of cold-water immersion recovery

- Introduction Heat-based training (HT) is becoming increasingly popular as a means of inducing acclimation before athletic competition in hot conditions and/or to augment the training impulse beyond that achieved in thermo-neutral conditions. Importantly, current understanding of the effects of HT on regenerative processes such as sleep and the interactions with common recovery interventions remain unknown. This study aimed to examine sleep characteristics during five consecutive days of training in the heat with the inclusion of cold-water immersion (CWI) compared to baseline sleep patterns. - Methods Thirty recreationally-trained males completed HT in 32 ± 1 °C and 60% rh for five consecutive days. Conditions included: 1) 90 min cycling at 40 % power at VO2max (Pmax) (90CONT; n = 10); 90 min cycling at 40 % Pmax with a 20 min CWI (14 ± 1 °C; 90CWI; n = 10); and 30 min cycling alternating between 40 and 70 % Pmax every 3 min, with no recovery intervention (30HIT; n = 10). Sleep quality and quantity was assessed during HT and four nights of 'baseline' sleep (BASE). Actigraphy provided measures of time in and out of bed, sleep latency, efficiency, total time in bed and total time asleep, wake after sleep onset, number of awakenings, and wakening duration. Subjective ratings of sleep were also recorded using a 1-5 Likert scale. Repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) was completed to determine effect of time and condition on sleep quality and quantity. Cohen's d effect sizes were also applied to determine magnitude and trends in the data. - Results Sleep latency, efficiency, total time in bed and number of awakenings were not significantly different between BASE and HT (P > 0.05). However, total time asleep was significantly reduced (P = 0.01; d = 1.46) and the duration periods of wakefulness after sleep onset was significantly greater during HT compared with BASE (P = 0.001; d = 1.14). Comparison between training groups showed latency was significantly higher for the 30HIT group compared to 90CONT (P = 0.02; d = 1.33). Nevertheless, there were no differences between training groups for sleep efficiency, total time in bed or asleep, wake after sleep onset, number of awakenings or awake duration (P > 0.05). Further, cold-water immersion recovery had no significant effect on sleep characteristics (P > 0.05). - Discussion Sleep plays an important role in athletic recovery and has previously been demonstrated to be influenced by both exercise training and thermal strain. Present data highlight the effect of HT on reduced sleep quality, specifically reducing total time asleep due to longer duration awake during awakenings after sleep onset. Importantly, although cold water recovery accelerates the removal of thermal load, this intervention did not blunt the negative effects of HT on sleep characteristics. - Conclusion Training in hot conditions may reduce both sleep quantity and quality and should be taken into consideration when administering this training intervention in the field.

A Review of the Environmental and Health Effects of Termiticides under Australian Conditions

There exists a major cost issue as regards termite damage to wooden structures. A factor in this cost has been the increasing trend towards slab-on-ground construction. Current literature has been reviewed in relation to concerns about the possible public/environmental health consequences of the repeated use of termiticides in large quantities. The previous, current and projected future use patterns of termiticides are reviewed in the context of techniques appropriate for termite control and treatment priorities. The phasing out of organochlorine termiticides in Australia was undertaken to minimise impact of these substances on the environment and to a lesser extent on public health. These persistent chemicals were replaced by substances with high activity but relatively low persistence in the soil. There has also been an increase in the use of alternative methods (e.g. physical barriers) for the control of termites. The transition away from organochlorine termiticides has led to a realisation that significant information gaps exist with regard to replacement chemicals and other technologies. Although relatively persistent, the organochlorine chemicals have a limited lifespan in soils. Their concentrations are gradually attenuated by processes such as transport away from the point of application and biodegradation. Wooden structures originally treated with these substances will, with the passing of time, be at risk of termite infestation. The only available option is re-treatment with chemicals currently registered for termite control. Thus, there are likely to be substantial future increases associated with the cost of re-treatment and repairs of older slab-on-ground dwellings. More information is required on Australian termite biology, taxonomy and ecology. The risks of termite infestation need to be evaluated, both locally and nationally so that susceptible or high risk areas, structures and building types can be identified and preventive measures taken in terms of design and construction. Building regulations and designs need to be able to reduce or eliminate high-risk housing; and eliminate or reduce conditions that are attractive to termites and/or facilitate termite infestation.

Hyposulfatemia, growth retardation, reduced fertility, and seizures in mice lacking a functional NaSi-1 gene

inorganic sulfate is required for numerous functions in mammalian physiology, and its circulating levels are proposed to be maintained by the Na+-SO42- cotransporter, (NaSi-1). To determine the role of NaSi-1 in sulfate homeostasis and the physiological consequences in its absence, we have generated a mouse lacking a functional NaSi-1 gene, Nas1. Serum sulfate concentration was reduced by >75% in Nas1(-/-) mice when compared with Nas1(+/+) mice. Nas1(-/-) mice exhibit increased urinary sulfate excretion, reduced renal and intestinal Na+-SO42- cotransport, and a general growth retardation. Nas1(-/-) mouse body weight was reduced by >20% when compared with Nas1(+/+) and Nas1(+/-) littermates at 2 weeks of age and remained so throughout adulthood. Nas1(-/-) females had a lowered fertility, with a 60% reduction in litter size. Spontaneous clonic seizures were observed in Nas1(-/-) mice from 8 months of age. These data demonstrate NaSi-1 is essential for maintaining sulfate homeostasis, and its expression is necessary for a wide range of physiological functions.