Secondary Accident Data Fusion for Assessing Long-Term Performance of Transportation Systems, 2007

Secondary accident statistics can be useful for studying the impact of traffic incident management strategies. An easy-to-implement methodology is presented for classifying secondary accidents using data fusion of a police accident database with intranet incident reports. A current method for classifying secondary accidents uses a static threshold that represents the spatial and temporal region of influence of the primary accident, such as two miles and one hour. An accident is considered secondary if it occurs upstream from the primary accident and is within the duration and queue of the primary accident. However, using the static threshold may result in both false positives and negatives because accident queues are constantly varying. The methodology presented in this report seeks to improve upon this existing method by making the threshold dynamic. An incident progression curve is used to mark the end of the queue throughout the entire incident. Four steps in the development of incident progression curves are described. Step one is the processing of intranet incident reports. Step two is the filling in of incomplete incident reports. Step three is the nonlinear regression of incident progression curves. Step four is the merging of individual incident progression curves into one master curve. To illustrate this methodology, 5,514 accidents from Missouri freeways were analyzed. The results show that secondary accidents identified by dynamic versus static thresholds can differ by more than 30%.

Severe postoperative complications adversely affect long-term survival after r1 resection for pancreatic head adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Survival after pancreatic head adenocarcinoma surgery is determined by tumor characteristics, resection margins, and adjuvant chemotherapy. Few studies have analyzed the long-term impact of postoperative morbidity. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of postoperative complications on long-term survival after pancreaticoduodenectomy for cancer. METHODS: Of 294 consecutive pancreatectomies performed between January 2000 and July 2011, a total of 101 pancreatic head resections for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma were retrospectively analyzed. Postoperative complications were classified on a five-grade validated scale and were correlated with long-term survival. Grade IIIb to IVb complications were defined as severe. RESULTS: Postoperative mortality and morbidity were 5 and 57 %, respectively. Severe postoperative complications occurred in 16 patients (16 %). Median overall survival was 1.4 years. Significant prognostic factors of survival were the N-stage of the tumor (median survival 3.4 years for N0 vs. 1.3 years for N1, p = 0.018) and R status of the resection (median survival 1.6 years for R0 vs. 1.2 years for R1, p = 0.038). Median survival after severe postoperative complications was decreased from 1.9 to 1.2 years (p = 0.06). Median survival for N0 or N1 tumor or after R0 resection was not influenced by the occurrence and severity of complications, but patients with a R1 resection and severe complications showed a worsened median survival of 0.6 vs. 2.0 years without severe complications (p = 0.0005). CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative severe morbidity per se had no impact on long-term survival except in patients with R1 tumor resection. These results suggest that severe complications after R1 resection predict poor outcome.

Adverse obstetrical and neonatal outcomes in elective and medically indicated inductions of labor at term.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the adverse neonatal and maternal outcomes after medically indicated and elective labor induction. Both induction groups were also compared to women with spontaneous onset of labor. METHOD: Retrospective cohort study of 13 971 women with live, cephalic singleton pregnancies who delivered at term (from 1997 to 2007). Adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes were compared between women who underwent an induction of labor in the presence and absence of standard medical indications. RESULTS: Among 5090 patients with induced labor, 2059 (40.5%) underwent elective labor inductions, defined as inductions without any medical or obstetrical indication. Risks of cesarean or instrumental delivery, postpartum hemorrhage >500 ml, prolonged maternal hospitalization >6 days, Apgar<7 at 5 min of life, arterial umbilical cord pH<7.1, admission in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) and prolonged NICU hospitalization >7 days were similar between nulliparous who underwent elective and medical labor induction. Similar results were obtained for multiparous. All the above mentioned risks, but the Apgar<7 at 5 min of life, were significantly increased after induction in comparison to spontaneous labor. CONCLUSION: Elective induction of labor carries similar obstetrical and neonatal risks as a medically indicated labor induction. Thus, elective induction of labor should be strongly discouraged.

The effects of poor financial information systems on the long term sustainability of local public services. Empirical evidence from the Catalan Municipalities

In this paper we describe the existence of financial illusion in public accountingand we comment on its effects for the future sustainability of local publicservices. We relate these features to the lack of incentives amongst publicmanagers for improving the financial reporting and thus management of publicassets. Financial illusion pays off for politicians and managers since it allowsfor larger public expenditure increases and managerial slack, these beingarguments in their utility functions. This preference is strengthen by the shorttime perspective of politically appointed public managers. Both factors runagainst public accountability. This hypothesis is tested for Spain by using anunique sample. We take data from around forty Catalan local authorities withpopulation above 20,000 for the financial years 1993-98. We build this databasis from the Catalan Auditing Office Reports in a way that it can be linkedto some other local social and economic variables in order to test ourassumptions. The results confirm that there is a statistical relationship between the financialillusion index (FI as constructed in the paper) and higher current expenditure.This reflects on important overruns and increases of the delay in payingsuppliers, as well as on a higher difficulties to face capital finance. Mechanismsfor FI creation have to do among other factors, with delays in paying suppliers(and thereafter higher future financial costs per unit of service), no adequateprovision for bad debts and lack of appropriate capital funding either forreposition or for new equipments. For this, it is crucial to monitor the way inwhich capital transfers are accounted in local public sheet balances. As a result,for most of the Municipalities we analyse, the funds for guaranteeing continuityand sustainability of public services provision are today at risk.Given managerial incentives at present in public institutions, we conclude thatpublic regulation recently enforced for assuring better information systems inlocal public management may not be enough to change the current state of affairs.

Civil conflict and human capital accumulation: The long-term effects of political violence in Perú

This paper provides empirical evidence of the persistent effect of exposure to political violence on humancapital accumulation. I exploit the variation in conflict location and birth cohorts to identify the longandshort-term effects of the civil war on educational attainment. Conditional on being exposed toviolence, the average person accumulates 0.31 less years of education as an adult. In the short-term,the effects are stronger than in the long-run; these results hold when comparing children within thesame household. Further, exposure to violence during early childhood leads to permanent losses. I alsoexplore the potential causal mechanisms.

On the term structure of Interbank interest rates: Jump-diffusion processes and option pricing

In this paper we study the dynamic behavior of the term structureof Interbank interest rates and the pricing of options on interest ratesensitive securities. We posit a generalized single factor model withjumps to take into account external influences in the market. Daily datais used to test for jump effects. Qualitative examination of the linkagebetween Monetary Authorities' interventions and jumps are studied. Pricingresults suggests a systematic underpricing in bonds and call options ifthe jumps component is not included. However, the pricing of put optionson bonds presents indeterminacies.

Early change in defence mechanisms and coping in short-term dynamic psychotherapy: relations with symptoms and alliance.

Several patient-related variables have already been investigated as predictors of change in psychodynamic psychotherapy. Defensive functioning is one of them. However, few studies have investigated adaptational processes, encompassing defence mechanisms and coping, from an integrative or comparative viewpoint. This study includes 32 patients, mainly diagnosed with adjustment disorder and undergoing time-limited psychodynamic psychotherapy lasting up to 40 sessions, and will focus on early change in defence and coping. Observer-rater methodology was applied to the transcripts of two sessions of the first part of the psychotherapeutic process. It is assumed that the contextual-relational variable of therapeutic alliance intervenes as moderator on change in adaptational processes. Results corroborated the hypothesis, but only for coping, whereas for defences, overall functioning remained stable over the first 20 sessions of psychotherapy. These results are discussed within the framework of disentangling processes underlying adaptation, i.e., related to issues on trait and state aspects, as well as the role of the therapeutic alliance.

Long-term swimming exercise does not modulate the Akt-dependent endothelial nitric oxide synthase phosphorylation in healthy mice.

Molecular mechanisms by which exercise exerts cardiovascular benefits are poorly understood. Exercise-induced increase of endothelial NO synthase (eNOS) phosphorylation through the protein kinase Akt has been shown to be a key mechanism underlying the beneficial effect of exercise in coronary artery disease patients. We examined whether this protective pathway might also be activated in long-term-exercised healthy mice. C57BL/6 wild-type mice swam for 24 weeks. A group of sedentary animals were used as controls. Aortic levels of total protein kinase Akt (protein kinase B), phosphorylated Akt at ser473 (p-Akt), total eNOS, phosphorylated eNOS at Ser1177 (p-eNOS), and PECAM-1 (platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule-1) were assessed by Western blotting. Protein expressions of Akt, p-Akt, eNOS, p-eNOS, and PECAM-1 were not modulated by 24 weeks of exercise. The Akt-dependent eNOS phosphorylation did not seem to be a primary molecular adaptation in response to long-term exercise in healthy mice.

Long-Term Care Insurance Companies, September 2007

The companies on this list have been approved to sell long-term-care insurance in the State of Iowa. Customer service numbers are listed for each company. Please open pdf for the numbers.

Fixed-term contracts and the duration distribution of unemployment

In the mid-1980s, many European countries introduced fixed-term contracts.Since then their labor markets have become more dynamic. This paper studiesthe implications of such reforms for the duration distribution ofunemployment, with particular emphasis on the changes in the durationdependence. I estimate a parametric duration model using cross-sectionaldata drawn from the Spanish Labor Force Survey from 1980 to 1994 to analyzethe chances of leaving unemployment before and after the introduction offixed-term contracts. I find that duration dependence has increased sincesuch reform. Semi-parametric estimation of the model also shows that forlong spells, the probability of leaving unemployment has decreased sincesuch reform.

The impact of interest-rate subsidies on long-term household debt: Evidence from a large program

The responsiveness of long-term household debt to the interest rate is acrucial parameter for assessing the effectiveness of public policies aimedat promoting specific types of saving. This paper estimates the effect ofa reform of Credito Bonificado, a large program in Portugal that subsidizedmortgage interest rates, on long-term household debt. The reform establisheda ceiling in the price of the house that could be financed through theprogram, and provides plausibly exogenous variation in incentives. Usinga unique dataset of matched household survey data and administrative recordsof debt, we document a large decrease in the probability of signing a newloan after the removal of the subsidy.

Short-term investment and equilibrium multiplicity

I study the effects of the heterogeneity of traders'horizon in the context of a 2-period NREE model whereall traders are risk averse. Owing to inventory effects,myopic trading behavior generates multiplicity ofequilibria. In particular, two distinct patterns arise.Along the first equilibrium, short term tradersanticipate higher second period price reaction toinformation arrival and, owing to risk aversion,scale back their trading intensity. This, in turn,reduces both risk sharing and information impoundinginto prices enforcing a high returns' volatility-lowprice informativeness equilibrium. In the second one,the opposite happens and a low volatility-high priceinformativeness equilibrium arises.

The long term effects of legalizing divorce on children

We estimate the effect of divorce legalization on the long-term well-being ofchildren. Our identification strategy relies on exploiting the different timing of divorcelegalization across European countries. Using European Community Household Paneldata, we compare the adult outcomes of cohorts who were raised in an environmentwhere divorce was banned with cohorts raised after divorce was legalized in the samecountry. We also have control countries where all cohorts were exposed (or notexposed) to divorce as children, thus leading to a difference-in-differences approach. Wefind that women who grew up under legal divorce have lower earnings and income aswell as worse health as adults compared with women who grew up under illegal divorce.These effects are not found for men. We find no effects of divorce legalization onchildren s family formation or dissolution patterns.