Synergistic effects of climate and fishing in a marine ecosystem

Current climate change and overfishing are affecting the productivity and structure of marine ecosystems. This situation is unprecedented for the marine biosphere and it is essential to understand the mechanisms and pathways by which ecosystems respond. We report that climate change and overfishing are likely to be responsible for a rapid restructuring of a highly productive marine ecosystem with effects throughout the pelagos and the benthos. In the mid-1980s, climate change, consequent modifications in the North Sea plankton, and fishing, all reduced North Sea cod recruitment. In this region, production of many benthic species respond positively and immediately to temperature. Analysis of a long-term, spatially extensive biological (plankton and cod) and physical (sea surface temperature) dataset suggests that synchronous changes in cod numbers and sea temperature have established an extensive trophic cascade favoring lower trophic level groups over economic fisheries. A proliferation of jellyfish that we detect may signal the climax of these changes. This modified North Sea ecology may provide a clear indication of the synergistic consequences of coincident climate change and overfishing. The extent of the ecosystem restructuring that has occurred in the North Sea suggests we are unlikely to reverse current climate and human-induced effects through ecosystem resource management in the short term. Rather, we should understand and adapt to new ecological regimes. This implies that fisheries management policies will have to be fully integrated with the ecological consequences of climate change to prevent a similar collapse in an exploited marine ecosystem elsewhere.

Global synchrony of an accelerating risein sea surface temperature

The oceans have shown a recent rapid and accelerating rise in temperature with, given the close link between temperature and marine organisms, pronounced effects on ecosystems. Here we describe for the first time a globally synchronous pattern of pulsed short period (�1 year long) emanations of warm sea surface temperature anomalies from tropical seas towards the poles on the shelf/slope with an intensification of the warming after the 1976/1977, 1986/1987 and 1997/1998 El Nin˜os. On the eastern margins of continents the anomalies propagate towards the poles in part by largely baroclinic boundary currents, reinforced by regional atmospheric warming. The processes contributing to the less continuous warm anomalies on western margins are linked to the transfer of warmth from adjacent western boundary currents. These climate induced events show a close parallelism with the timing of ecosystem changes in shelf seas, important for fisheries and ecosystem services, and melting of sea-ice.

"The Black Imprint of Sandals in White Mosaic Floors": H.D.'s Mythomystical Poetics

My dissertation examines the traces of inverse (mytho)mysticism, more synchronous with mythical alchemy than transcendent mystery, in H.D.’s mature work (1946-1961). Whereas H.D.’s earliest works respond to a fin de siècle occultism and a collective psyche troubled by the eschatological distress that, as Susan Acheson writes, “was widespread amongst modernist writers grappling with …world events and with the implications of Nietzsche’s inaugural annunciation of modernity in terms of the death of God” (187), her later oeuvre is dedicated to the same work of soul undertaken by the “secret cult of Night” in Vale Ave. Here, her thematic scope faces two ways: backward to ancient Greek mystery cults and their palingenesic rites and forward to depth psychologists searching for the Soul of the World. Vale Ave plays a pronounced role in my study as symbolic guide; in its seventy-four sequences the layering of time in the “trilogy” of past, present, and future that H.D. had explored during the years of the Second World War in order to get behind the fallen walls of cause and effect collapses into two distinct phases of human origin—“meeting” (evolution) and “parting” (involution)—and the poem invites Lilith and Lucifer to be its archetypal guides. My method for the study is imaginal, entering such disciplines as history, philosophy, and theology and bringing psychological understanding to them. John Walsh’s introduction to Vale Ave notes H.D.’s theme “that the human psyche exists in a dimension outside of time and space as well as within them. In Vale Ave, H.D. presents the extremity of this dual-dimensionality: metempsychosis” (vii). However, the concept that H.D. investigates is more than a literary processus of characters who adopt different masks and appear at various junctures in a chronological unwinding of history. I explore H.D.'s works as part of a Modernist tradition of writing “books of the dead” designed not to guide the soul after death, but to draw the gaze upon “a nearer thing,” as H.D. writes in Erige Cor Tuum Ad Me In Caelum, the wisdom intrinsic in the spirit of life itself.

Tephra-linked peat humification records from Irish ombrotrophic bogs question nature of solar forcing at 850 cal. yr BC.

This paper investigates evidence for palaeoclimatic changes during the period ca. 1500-500 cal. yr BC through peat humification studies on seven Irish ombrotrophic bogs. The sites are well-correlated by the identification of three mid-first millennium BC tephras, which enable the humification records at specific points in time to be directly compared. Phases of temporarily increased wetness are suggested at ca. 1300-1250 cal. yr BC, ca. 1150-1050 cal. yr BC, ca. 940 cal. yr BC and ca. 740 cal. yr BC. The last of these is confirmed to be synchronous at five sites, suggesting external forcing on a regional scale. The timing of this wet-shift is constrained by two closely dated tephras and is demonstrated to be distinct from the widely reported changes to cooler/wetter conditions associated with a solar minimum at 850-760 cal. yr BC, at which time the Irish sites appear instead to experience drier conditions. The results suggest the possibility of either non-uniform responses to solar forcing in northwest Europe at this time, or the existence of unrelated climate events in the early first millennium BC. The findings caution against the correlation of loosely dated palaeoclimate data if the effects of forcing mechanisms are to be understood.

BSP -Style Computation: A Semantic Investigation

A BSP (Bulk Synchronous Parallelism) computation is characterized by the generation of asynchronous messages in packages during independent execution of a number of processes and their subsequent delivery at synchronization points. Bundling messages together represents a significant departure from the traditional ‘one communication at a time’ approach. In this paper the semantic consequences of communication packaging are explored. In particular, the BSP communication structure is identified with a general form of substitution—predicate substitution. Predicate substitution provides a means of reasoning about the synchronized delivery of asynchronous communications when the immediate programming context does not explicitly refer to the variables that are to be updated (unlike traditional operations, such as the assignment $x := e$, where the names of the updated variables can be extracted from the context). Proofs of implementations of Newton's root finding method and prefix sum are used to illustrate the practical application of the proposed approach.

North European last glacial-interglacial transition (LGIT; 15-9 ka) tephrochronology: extended limits and new events

High-precision correlation of palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records is crucial for testing hypotheses of synchronous change. Although radiocarbon is the traditional method for dating late Quaternary sedimentary sequences, particularly during the last glacial–interglacial transition (LGIT; 15–9?ka), there are inherent problems with the method, particularly during periods of climate change which are often accompanied by major perturbations in atmospheric radiocarbon content. An alternative method is the use of tephras that act as time-parallel marker horizons. Within Europe, numerous volcanic centres are known to have erupted during the LGIT, providing considerable potential for high-precision correlation independent of past radiocarbon fluctuations. Here we report the first identification of the Vedde Ash and Askja Tephra in Ireland, significantly extending the known provenance of these events. We have also identified two new horizons (the Roddans Port Tephras A and B) and tentatively recognise an additional horizon from Vallensgård Mose (Denmark) that provide crucial additional chronological control for the LGIT. Two phases of the Laacher See Tephra (LST) are reported, the lower Laacher See Tephra (LLST) and probably the C2 phase of the Middle Laacher See Tephra (MLST-C2) indicating a more northeasterly distribution of this fan than reported previously.

Fecundity and reproductive strategies in deep-sea incirrate octopuses (Cephalopoda: Octopoda).

Coleoid cephalopods show flexibility in their reproductive strategies or mode of spawning, which can range from simultaneous terminal spawning over a short period at the end of the animal’s life to continuous spawning over a long period of the animal’s life. Although a simultaneous terminal spawning strategy is typical of shallow water temperate octopuses, it is not known whether deep-sea octopods would have the same reproductive strategy. The reproductive strategies and fecundity were investigated in nine species of deep-sea incirrate octopuses: Bathypolypus arcticus, Bathypolypus bairdii, Bathypolypus ergasticus, Bathypolypus sponsalis, Bathypolypus valdiviae, Benthoctopus levis, Benthoctopus normani, Benthoctopus sp., and Graneledone verrucosa (total n = 85). Egg-length frequency graphs and multivariate analysis (principal components analysis) suggest that B. sponsalis has a synchronous ovulation pattern and therefore a simultaneous terminal spawning strategy. Although a simultaneous terminal spawning strategy is most likely for B. levis and B. normani, the egg-length frequency graphs and multivariate analysis also suggest a greater variation in egglengths which could lead to spawning over an extended period.

Damping torque analysis for DC bus implemented damping control

Damping torque analysis is a well-developed technique for understanding and studying power system oscillations. This paper presents the applications of damping torque analysis for DC bus implemented damping control in power transmission networks in two examples. The first example is the investigation of damping effect of shunt VSC (Voltage Source Converter) based FACTS voltage control, i.e., STATCOM (Static Synchronous Compensator) voltage control. It is shown in the paper that STATCOM voltage control mainly contributes synchronous torque and hence has little effect on the damping of power system oscillations. The second example is the damping control implemented by a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) installed in a power system. Damping torque analysis reveals that when BESS damping control is realized by regulating exchange of active and reactive power between the BESS and power system respectively, BESS damping control exhibits different properties. It is concluded by damping torque analysis that BESS damping control implemented by regulating active power is better with less interaction with BESS voltage control and more robust to variations of power system operating conditions. In the paper, all analytical conclusions obtained are demonstrated by simulation results of example power systems.

Critical stages of the brewing process for changes in antioxidant activity and levels of phenolic compounds in ale

Samples were taken at each stage of brewing (malt, milling, mashing, wort separation, hop addition, boiling, whirlpool, dilution, fermentation, warm rest, chill-lagering, beer filtration, carbonation and bottling, pasteurization, and storage). The level of antioxidant activity of unfractionated, low-molecular-mass (LMM) and high-molecular-mass (HMM) fractions was measured by the 2,2'-azinobis(3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfortic acid) radical cation (ABTS(.+)) and ferric-reducing antioxidant power (FRAP) procedures. Polyphenol levels were assessed by HPLC. The LMM fraction ( 0.001) in catechin and ferulic acid levels. Increases in antioxidant activity levels were observed after mashing, boiling, fermentation, chill-lagering, and pasteurization, in line with previous studies on lager. Additionally, increases in the level of antioxidant activity occurred after wort separation and carbonation and bottling and were accompanied by increases in levels of most monitored polyphenols. Data from the ABTS(.-) and FRAP assays indicated that the compounds contributing to the levels of antioxidant activity responded differently in the two procedures. Levels of ferulic, vanillic, and chlorogenic acids and catechin accounted for 45-61% of the variation in antioxidant activity levels.

Effect of roasting on the antioxidant activity of coffee brews

Colombian Arabica coffee beans were roasted to give light, medium, and dark samples. Their aqueous extracts were analyzed by gel filtration chromatography, UV-visible spectrophotometry, capillary electrophoresis, and the ABTS(.+) assay. A progressive decrease in antioxidant activity (associated mainly with chlorogenic acids in the green beans) with degree of roasting was observed with the simultaneous generation of high (HMM) and low molecular mass (LMM) compounds possessing antioxidant activity. Maximum antioxidant activity was observed for the medium-roasted coffee; the dark coffee had a lower antioxidant activity despite the increase in color. Analysis of the gel filtration chromatography fractions showed that the LMM fraction made a greater contribution to total antioxidant activity than the HMM components.

Effect of Loading, Voltage Difference and Phase Angle on the Synchronisation of a Small Alternator

Synchronisation of small distributed generation, 30 kVA–2 MVA, employing salient-pole synchronous machines is normally performed within a narrow range of tolerances for voltage, frequency and phase angle. However, there are situations when the ability to synchronise with non-ideal conditions would be beneficial. Such applications include power system islanding and rapid generator start-up. The physical process and effect of out-of-phase synchronisation is investigated both through simulation and experimental tests on a salient-pole alternator. There are many factors that affect synchronisation, but particular attention is given to synchronisation angle, voltage difference and, as generators will be loaded during islanding, the load angle. The results suggest that it would be acceptable for the maximum synchronisation angle of distributed generation to exceed that of current practice. Interesting observations on the nature of out-of-phase synchronisation are made, including some specific to small salient-pole synchronous machines. Furthermore, recommendations are made for synchronisation under different system conditions.

Hidden Conditional Random Fields for Visual Speech Recognition

In this paper we present the application of Hidden Conditional Random Fields (HCRFs) to modelling speech for visual speech recognition. HCRFs may be easily adapted to model long range dependencies across an observation sequence. As a result visual word recognition performance can be improved as the model is able to take more of a contextual approach to generating state sequences. Results are presented from a speaker-dependent, isolated digit, visual speech recognition task using comparisons with a baseline HMM system. We firstly illustrate that word recognition rates on clean video using HCRFs can be improved by increasing the number of past and future observations being taken into account by each state. Secondly we compare model performances using various levels of video compression on the test set. As far as we are aware this is the first attempted use of HCRFs for visual speech recognition.

Temporal information and children's and adults' causal inferences

Three experiments examined whether children and adults would use temporal information as a cue to the causal structure of a three-variable system, and also whether their judgements about the effects of interventions on the system would be affected by the temporal properties of the event sequence. Participants were shown a system in which two events B and C occurred either simultaneously (synchronous condition) or in a temporal sequence (sequential condition) following an initial event A. The causal judgements of adults and 6-7-year-olds differed between the conditions, but this was not the case for 4-year-olds' judgements. However, unlike those of adults, 6-7-year-olds' intervention judgements were not affected by condition, and causal and intervention judgements were not reliably consistent in this age group. The findings support the claim that temporal information provides an important cue to causal structure, at least in older children. However, they raise important issues about the relationship between causal and intervention judgements.

Climate drivers for peatland palaeoclimate records

Reconstruction of hydroclimate variability is an important part of understanding natural climate change on decadal to millennial timescales. Peatland records reconstruct 'bog surface wetness' (BSW) changes, but it is unclear whether it is a relative dominance of precipitation or temperature that has driven these variations over Holocene timescales. Previously, correlations with instrumental climate data implied that precipitation is the dominant control. However, a recent chironomid inferred July temperature record suggested temperature changes were synchronous with BSW over the mid-late Holocene. This paper provides new analyses of these data to test competing hypotheses of climate controls on bog surface wetness and discusses some of the distal drivers of large-scale spatial patterns of BSW change. Using statistically based estimates of uncertainty in chronologies and proxy records, we show a correlation between Holocene summer temperature and BSW is plausible, but that chronologies are insufficiently precise to demonstrate this conclusively. Simulated summer moisture deficit changes for the last 6000 years forced by temperature alone are relatively small compared with observations over the 20th century. Instrumental records show that summer moisture deficit provides the best explanatory variable for measured water table changes and is more strongly correlated with precipitation than with temperature in both Estonia and the UK. We conclude that BSW is driven primarily by precipitation, reinforced by temperature, which is negatively correlated with precipitation and therefore usually forces summer moisture deficit in the same direction. In western Europe, BSW records are likely to be forced by changes in the strength and location of westerlies, linked to large-scale North Atlantic ocean and atmospheric circulation. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rapid ecosystem response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period in western Europe, 40-16 ka

We present a high-resolution and independently dated multiproxy lake sediment record from the paleolake at Les Echets in southeastern France that displays synchronous changes in independent limnic and terrestrial ecosystem proxies, in concert with millennial-scale climate oscillations during the last glacial period. Distinct lake-level fluctuations, low lake organic productivity, and open, treeless vegetation indicate cold and dry conditions in response to Heinrich events. Alternating phases of higher and low lake organic productivity, stratified surface waters and long-lasting lake ice cover, decreased or increased catchment erosion, and tree-dominated or herb-dominated vegetation resemble Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadial-stadial variability. Transitions between different ecological states occurred in as little as 40-230 yr and seem to have been controlled by the position of the Polar Front. Ecosystem response after 30 ka suggests that local climate conditions became more important. Our results demonstrate that all parts of the terrestrial system responded to the abrupt and dramatic climatic changes associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, and that regional factors modulated ecosystem response.