Evaluation efficiency of large-scale data set with negative data:an artificial neural network approach

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is the most widely used methods for measuring the efficiency and productivity of decision-making units (DMUs). The need for huge computer resources in terms of memory and CPU time in DEA is inevitable for a large-scale data set, especially with negative measures. In recent years, wide ranges of studies have been conducted in the area of artificial neural network and DEA combined methods. In this study, a supervised feed-forward neural network is proposed to evaluate the efficiency and productivity of large-scale data sets with negative values in contrast to the corresponding DEA method. Results indicate that the proposed network has some computational advantages over the corresponding DEA models; therefore, it can be considered as a useful tool for measuring the efficiency of DMUs with (large-scale) negative data.

Protection schemes for meshed VSC-HVDC transmission systems for large-scale offshore wind farms

This chapter discusses network protection of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission systems for large-scale offshore wind farms where the HVDC system utilizes voltage-source converters. The multi-terminal HVDC network topology and protection allocation and configuration are discussed with DC circuit breaker and protection relay configurations studied for different fault conditions. A detailed protection scheme is designed with a solution that does not require relay communication. Advanced understanding of protection system design and operation is necessary for reliable and safe operation of the meshed HVDC system under fault conditions. Meshed-HVDC systems are important as they will be used to interconnect large-scale offshore wind generation projects. Offshore wind generation is growing rapidly and offers a means of securing energy supply and addressing emissions targets whilst minimising community impacts. There are ambitious plans concerning such projects in Europe and in the Asia-Pacific region which will all require a reliable yet economic system to generate, collect, and transmit electrical power from renewable resources. Collective offshore wind farms are efficient and have potential as a significant low-carbon energy source. However, this requires a reliable collection and transmission system. Offshore wind power generation is a relatively new area and lacks systematic analysis of faults and associated operational experience to enhance further development. Appropriate fault protection schemes are required and this chapter highlights the process of developing and assessing such schemes. The chapter illustrates the basic meshed topology, identifies the need for distance evaluation, and appropriate cable models, then details the design and operation of the protection scheme with simulation results used to illustrate operation. © Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2014.

Conditional Confidence Interval for the Scale Parameter of a Weibull Distribution

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F25, 62F03.

Responsive fixture design using dynamic product inspection and monitoring technologies for the precision machining of large-scale aerospace parts

When machining a large-scale aerospace part, the part is normally located and clamped firmly until a set of features are machined. When the part is released, its size and shape may deform beyond the tolerance limits due to stress release. This paper presents the design of a new fixing method and flexible fixtures that would automatically respond to workpiece deformation during machining. Deformation is inspected and monitored on-line, and part location and orientation can be adjusted timely to ensure follow-up operations are carried out under low stress and with respect to the related datum defined in the design models.

Eigen-Adaptation and Distributed Representation of 2-D Phase, Energy, Scale and Orientation in Spatial Vision

Distributed representations (DR) of cortical channels are pervasive in models of spatio-temporal vision. A central idea that underpins current innovations of DR stems from the extension of 1-D phase into 2-D images. Neurophysiological evidence, however, provides tenuous support for a quadrature representation in the visual cortex, since even phase visual units are associated with broader orientation tuning than odd phase visual units (J.Neurophys.,88,455–463, 2002). We demonstrate that the application of the steering theorems to a 2-D definition of phase afforded by the Riesz Transform (IEEE Trans. Sig. Proc., 49, 3136–3144), to include a Scale Transform, allows one to smoothly interpolate across 2-D phase and pass from circularly symmetric to orientation tuned visual units, and from more narrowly tuned odd symmetric units to even ones. Steering across 2-D phase and scale can be orthogonalized via a linearizing transformation. Using the tiltafter effect as an example, we argue that effects of visual adaptation can be better explained by via an orthogonal rather than channel specific representation of visual units. This is because of the ability to explicitly account for isotropic and cross-orientation adaptation effect from the orthogonal representation from which both direct and indirect tilt after-effects can be explained.

Nemlineáris dinamika klasszikus növekedési modellekben (Nonlinear dynamics in classical economic growth models)

Ebben a tanulmányban a klasszikus Harrod növekedési modellt nemlineáris kiterjesztéssel, keynesi és schumpeteri tradíciók bevezetésével reprezentatív ügynök modellbe alakítjuk. A híres Lucas kritika igazolásaként megmutatjuk, hogy az intrinsic gazdasági növekedési ütemek trajektóriái vagy egy turbulens káoszba szóródnak szét, vagy egy nagyméretű rendhez vezetnek, ami elsődlegesen a megfelelő fogyasztási függvény típusától függ, s bizonyos paraméterek piaci értékei, pedig csak másodlagos szerepet játszanak. A másik meglepő eredmény empirikus, ami szerint külkereskedelmi többlet, a hazai valuta bizonyos devizapiaci értékei mellett, különös attraktorokat generálhat. _____ In this paper the classical Harrodian growth model is transformed into a representative agent model by its nonlinear extensions and the Keynesian and Schumpeterian traditions. For the proof of the celebrated Lucas critique it is shown that the trajectories of intrinsic economic growth rates either are scattered into a turbulent chaos or lead to a large scale order. It depends on the type of the appropriate consumption function, and the market values of some parameters are playing only secondary role.Another surprising result is empirical: the international trade su±cit may generate strange attractors under some exchange rate values.

Large scale data processing using MapReduce

As massive data sets become increasingly available, people are facing the problem of how to effectively process and understand these data. Traditional sequential computing models are giving way to parallel and distributed computing models, such as MapReduce, both due to the large size of the data sets and their high dimensionality. This dissertation, as in the same direction of other researches that are based on MapReduce, tries to develop effective techniques and applications using MapReduce that can help people solve large-scale problems. Three different problems are tackled in the dissertation. The first one deals with processing terabytes of raster data in a spatial data management system. Aerial imagery files are broken into tiles to enable data parallel computation. The second and third problems deal with dimension reduction techniques that can be used to handle data sets of high dimensionality. Three variants of the nonnegative matrix factorization technique are scaled up to factorize matrices of dimensions in the order of millions in MapReduce based on different matrix multiplication implementations. Two algorithms, which compute CANDECOMP/PARAFAC and Tucker tensor decompositions respectively, are parallelized in MapReduce based on carefully partitioning the data and arranging the computation to maximize data locality and parallelism.

A conceptual ecological model to facilitate understanding the role of invasive species in large-scale ecosystem restoration

We developed a conceptual ecological model (CEM) for invasive species to help understand the role invasive exotics have in ecosystem ecology and their impacts on restoration activities. Our model, which can be applied to any invasive species, grew from the eco-regional conceptual models developed for Everglades restoration. These models identify ecological drivers, stressors, effects and attributes; we integrated the unique aspects of exotic species invasions and effects into this conceptual hierarchy. We used the model to help identify important aspects of invasion in the development of an invasive exotic plant ecological indicator, which is described a companion paper in this special issue journal. A key aspect of the CEM is that it is a general ecological model that can be tailored to specific cases and species, as the details of any invasion are unique to that invasive species. Our model encompasses the temporal and spatial changes that characterize invasion, identifying the general conditions that allow a species to become invasive in a de novo environment; it then enumerates the possible effects exotic species may have collectively and individually at varying scales and for different ecosystem properties, once a species becomes invasive. The model provides suites of characteristics and processes, as well as hypothesized causal relationships to consider when thinking about the effects or potential effects of an invasive exotic and how restoration efforts will affect these characteristics and processes. In order to illustrate how to use the model as a blueprint for applying a similar approach to other invasive species and ecosystems, we give two examples of using this conceptual model to evaluate the status of two south Florida invasive exotic plant species (melaleuca and Old World climbing fern) and consider potential impacts of these invasive species on restoration.

Towards simulation and emulation of large-scale computer networks

Developing analytical models that can accurately describe behaviors of Internet-scale networks is difficult. This is due, in part, to the heterogeneous structure, immense size and rapidly changing properties of today's networks. The lack of analytical models makes large-scale network simulation an indispensable tool for studying immense networks. However, large-scale network simulation has not been commonly used to study networks of Internet-scale. This can be attributed to three factors: 1) current large-scale network simulators are geared towards simulation research and not network research, 2) the memory required to execute an Internet-scale model is exorbitant, and 3) large-scale network models are difficult to validate. This dissertation tackles each of these problems. ^ First, this work presents a method for automatically enabling real-time interaction, monitoring, and control of large-scale network models. Network researchers need tools that allow them to focus on creating realistic models and conducting experiments. However, this should not increase the complexity of developing a large-scale network simulator. This work presents a systematic approach to separating the concerns of running large-scale network models on parallel computers and the user facing concerns of configuring and interacting with large-scale network models. ^ Second, this work deals with reducing memory consumption of network models. As network models become larger, so does the amount of memory needed to simulate them. This work presents a comprehensive approach to exploiting structural duplications in network models to dramatically reduce the memory required to execute large-scale network experiments. ^ Lastly, this work addresses the issue of validating large-scale simulations by integrating real protocols and applications into the simulation. With an emulation extension, a network simulator operating in real-time can run together with real-world distributed applications and services. As such, real-time network simulation not only alleviates the burden of developing separate models for applications in simulation, but as real systems are included in the network model, it also increases the confidence level of network simulation. This work presents a scalable and flexible framework to integrate real-world applications with real-time simulation.^

Background traffic modeling for large-scale network simulation

Network simulation is an indispensable tool for studying Internet-scale networks due to the heterogeneous structure, immense size and changing properties. It is crucial for network simulators to generate representative traffic, which is necessary for effectively evaluating next-generation network protocols and applications. With network simulation, we can make a distinction between foreground traffic, which is generated by the target applications the researchers intend to study and therefore must be simulated with high fidelity, and background traffic, which represents the network traffic that is generated by other applications and does not require significant accuracy. The background traffic has a significant impact on the foreground traffic, since it competes with the foreground traffic for network resources and therefore can drastically affect the behavior of the applications that produce the foreground traffic. This dissertation aims to provide a solution to meaningfully generate background traffic in three aspects. First is realism. Realistic traffic characterization plays an important role in determining the correct outcome of the simulation studies. This work starts from enhancing an existing fluid background traffic model by removing its two unrealistic assumptions. The improved model can correctly reflect the network conditions in the reverse direction of the data traffic and can reproduce the traffic burstiness observed from measurements. Second is scalability. The trade-off between accuracy and scalability is a constant theme in background traffic modeling. This work presents a fast rate-based TCP (RTCP) traffic model, which originally used analytical models to represent TCP congestion control behavior. This model outperforms other existing traffic models in that it can correctly capture the overall TCP behavior and achieve a speedup of more than two orders of magnitude over the corresponding packet-oriented simulation. Third is network-wide traffic generation. Regardless of how detailed or scalable the models are, they mainly focus on how to generate traffic on one single link, which cannot be extended easily to studies of more complicated network scenarios. This work presents a cluster-based spatio-temporal background traffic generation model that considers spatial and temporal traffic characteristics as well as their correlations. The resulting model can be used effectively for the evaluation work in network studies.

Large-Scale Testing to Study the Effects of Critical Parameters on the Aerodynamic Behavior of Long Span Bridges

Long-span bridges are flexible and therefore are sensitive to wind induced effects. One way to improve the stability of long span bridges against flutter is to use cross-sections that involve twin side-by-side decks. However, this can amplify responses due to vortex induced oscillations. Wind tunnel testing is a well-established practice to evaluate the stability of bridges against wind loads. In order to study the response of the prototype in laboratory, dynamic similarity requirements should be satisfied. One of the parameters that is normally violated in wind tunnel testing is Reynolds number. In this dissertation, the effects of Reynolds number on the aerodynamics of a double deck bridge were evaluated by measuring fluctuating forces on a motionless sectional model of a bridge at different wind speeds representing different Reynolds regimes. Also, the efficacy of vortex mitigation devices was evaluated at different Reynolds number regimes. One other parameter that is frequently ignored in wind tunnel studies is the correct simulation of turbulence characteristics. Due to the difficulties in simulating flow with large turbulence length scale on a sectional model, wind tunnel tests are often performed in smooth flow as a conservative approach. The validity of simplifying assumptions in calculation of buffeting loads, as the direct impact of turbulence, needs to be verified for twin deck bridges. The effects of turbulence characteristics were investigated by testing sectional models of a twin deck bridge under two different turbulent flow conditions. Not only the flow properties play an important role on the aerodynamic response of the bridge, but also the geometry of the cross section shape is expected to have significant effects. In this dissertation, the effects of deck details, such as width of the gap between the twin decks, and traffic barriers on the aerodynamic characteristics of a twin deck bridge were investigated, particularly on the vortex shedding forces with the aim of clarifying how these shape details can alter the wind induced responses. Finally, a summary of the issues that are involved in designing a dynamic test rig for high Reynolds number tests is given, using the studied cross section as an example.

Exploring the stages of change and perceived barriers to treatment models within the context of parental adherence to an early intervention program

Parent-mediated early intervention programs depend on the willingness and ability of parents to complete prescribed activities with their children. In other contexts, internal factors, such as stages of change, and external factors, such as barriers to treatment, have been shown to correlate with adherence to service. This researcher modified the Stages of Change Questionnaire as well as the Barriers to Treatment Participation Scale (BTPS) to use with this population. Despite initial interest, twenty-three parent participants were referred to the researcher over the course of three years, with only five parents taking part in the study. A population base ten times that of the current sample would be required recruit enough participants (fifty-one) to provide sufficient power. This feasibility study discusses the results of the five parent participants. Findings suggest that the modified Stages of Change Questionnaire may not be sensitive enough for use with the current sample, while the modified BTPS may yield useful information for service providers.

Bayesian Inference in Large-scale Problems

Many modern applications fall into the category of "large-scale" statistical problems, in which both the number of observations n and the number of features or parameters p may be large. Many existing methods focus on point estimation, despite the continued relevance of uncertainty quantification in the sciences, where the number of parameters to estimate often exceeds the sample size, despite huge increases in the value of n typically seen in many fields. Thus, the tendency in some areas of industry to dispense with traditional statistical analysis on the basis that "n=all" is of little relevance outside of certain narrow applications. The main result of the Big Data revolution in most fields has instead been to make computation much harder without reducing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods excel at uncertainty quantification, but often scale poorly relative to alternatives. This conflict between the statistical advantages of Bayesian procedures and their substantial computational disadvantages is perhaps the greatest challenge facing modern Bayesian statistics, and is the primary motivation for the work presented here.

Two general strategies for scaling Bayesian inference are considered. The first is the development of methods that lend themselves to faster computation, and the second is design and characterization of computational algorithms that scale better in n or p. In the first instance, the focus is on joint inference outside of the standard problem of multivariate continuous data that has been a major focus of previous theoretical work in this area. In the second area, we pursue strategies for improving the speed of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, and characterizing their performance in large-scale settings. Throughout, the focus is on rigorous theoretical evaluation combined with empirical demonstrations of performance and concordance with the theory.

One topic we consider is modeling the joint distribution of multivariate categorical data, often summarized in a contingency table. Contingency table analysis routinely relies on log-linear models, with latent structure analysis providing a common alternative. Latent structure models lead to a reduced rank tensor factorization of the probability mass function for multivariate categorical data, while log-linear models achieve dimensionality reduction through sparsity. Little is known about the relationship between these notions of dimensionality reduction in the two paradigms. In Chapter 2, we derive several results relating the support of a log-linear model to nonnegative ranks of the associated probability tensor. Motivated by these findings, we propose a new collapsed Tucker class of tensor decompositions, which bridge existing PARAFAC and Tucker decompositions, providing a more flexible framework for parsimoniously characterizing multivariate categorical data. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, we illustrate empirical advantages of the new decompositions.

Latent class models for the joint distribution of multivariate categorical, such as the PARAFAC decomposition, data play an important role in the analysis of population structure. In this context, the number of latent classes is interpreted as the number of genetically distinct subpopulations of an organism, an important factor in the analysis of evolutionary processes and conservation status. Existing methods focus on point estimates of the number of subpopulations, and lack robust uncertainty quantification. Moreover, whether the number of latent classes in these models is even an identified parameter is an open question. In Chapter 3, we show that when the model is properly specified, the correct number of subpopulations can be recovered almost surely. We then propose an alternative method for estimating the number of latent subpopulations that provides good quantification of uncertainty, and provide a simple procedure for verifying that the proposed method is consistent for the number of subpopulations. The performance of the model in estimating the number of subpopulations and other common population structure inference problems is assessed in simulations and a real data application.

In contingency table analysis, sparse data is frequently encountered for even modest numbers of variables, resulting in non-existence of maximum likelihood estimates. A common solution is to obtain regularized estimates of the parameters of a log-linear model. Bayesian methods provide a coherent approach to regularization, but are often computationally intensive. Conjugate priors ease computational demands, but the conjugate Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors for the parameters of log-linear models do not give rise to closed form credible regions, complicating posterior inference. In Chapter 4 we derive the optimal Gaussian approximation to the posterior for log-linear models with Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors, and provide convergence rate and finite-sample bounds for the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the exact posterior and the optimal Gaussian approximation. We demonstrate empirically in simulations and a real data application that the approximation is highly accurate, even in relatively small samples. The proposed approximation provides a computationally scalable and principled approach to regularized estimation and approximate Bayesian inference for log-linear models.

Another challenging and somewhat non-standard joint modeling problem is inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes. In applications where extreme dependence is of interest, data are almost always time-indexed. Existing methods for inference and modeling in this setting often cluster extreme events or choose window sizes with the goal of preserving temporal information. In Chapter 5, we propose an alternative paradigm for inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes with arbitrary temporal dependence structure in the extremes, based on the idea that the information on strength of tail dependence and the temporal structure in this dependence are both encoded in waiting times between exceedances of high thresholds. We construct a class of time-indexed stochastic processes with tail dependence obtained by endowing the support points in de Haan's spectral representation of max-stable processes with velocities and lifetimes. We extend Smith's model to these max-stable velocity processes and obtain the distribution of waiting times between extreme events at multiple locations. Motivated by this result, a new definition of tail dependence is proposed that is a function of the distribution of waiting times between threshold exceedances, and an inferential framework is constructed for estimating the strength of extremal dependence and quantifying uncertainty in this paradigm. The method is applied to climatological, financial, and electrophysiology data.

The remainder of this thesis focuses on posterior computation by Markov chain Monte Carlo. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It has long been common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention has been paid to convergence and estimation error in these approximating Markov Chains. In Chapter 6, we propose a framework for assessing when to use approximations in MCMC algorithms, and how much error in the transition kernel should be tolerated to obtain optimal estimation performance with respect to a specified loss function and computational budget. The results require only ergodicity of the exact kernel and control of the kernel approximation accuracy. The theoretical framework is applied to approximations based on random subsets of data, low-rank approximations of Gaussian processes, and a novel approximating Markov chain for discrete mixture models.

Data augmentation Gibbs samplers are arguably the most popular class of algorithm for approximately sampling from the posterior distribution for the parameters of generalized linear models. The truncated Normal and Polya-Gamma data augmentation samplers are standard examples for probit and logit links, respectively. Motivated by an important problem in quantitative advertising, in Chapter 7 we consider the application of these algorithms to modeling rare events. We show that when the sample size is large but the observed number of successes is small, these data augmentation samplers mix very slowly, with a spectral gap that converges to zero at a rate at least proportional to the reciprocal of the square root of the sample size up to a log factor. In simulation studies, moderate sample sizes result in high autocorrelations and small effective sample sizes. Similar empirical results are observed for related data augmentation samplers for multinomial logit and probit models. When applied to a real quantitative advertising dataset, the data augmentation samplers mix very poorly. Conversely, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and a type of independence chain Metropolis algorithm show good mixing on the same dataset.

Investigation of factors driving the costs of operating the 2020 Irish power system with large-scale wind generation

The main goal of this work is to determine the true cost incurred by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to meet their EU renewable electricity targets. The primary all-island of Ireland policy goal is that 40% of electricity will come from renewable sources in 2020. From this it is expected that wind generation on the Irish electricity system will be in the region of 32-37% of total generation. This leads to issues resulting from wind energy being a non-synchronous, unpredictable and variable source of energy use on a scale never seen before for a single synchronous system. If changes are not made to traditional operational practices, the efficient running of the electricity system will be directly affected by these issues in the coming years. Using models of the electricity system for the all-island grid of Ireland, the effects of high wind energy penetration expected to be present in 2020 are examined. These models were developed using a unit commitment, economic dispatch tool called PLEXOS which allows for a detailed representation of the electricity system to be achieved down to individual generator level. These models replicate the true running of the electricity system through use of day-ahead scheduling and semi-relaxed use of these schedules that reflects the Transmission System Operator's of real time decision making on dispatch. In addition, it carefully considers other non-wind priority dispatch generation technologies that have an effect on the overall system. In the models developed, three main issues associated with wind energy integration were selected to be examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of assumptions presented in other studies. These three issues include wind energy's non-synchronous nature, its variability and spatial correlation, and its unpredictability. This leads to an examination of the effects in three areas: the need for system operation constraints required for system security; different onshore to offshore ratios of installed wind energy; and the degrees of accuracy in wind energy forecasting. Each of these areas directly impact the way in which the electricity system is run as they address each of the three issues associated with wind energy stated above, respectively. It is shown that assumptions in these three areas have a large effect on the results in terms of total generation costs, wind curtailment and generator technology type dispatch. In particular accounting for these issues has resulted in wind curtailment being predicted in much larger quantities than had been previously reported. This would have a large effect on wind energy companies because it is already a very low profit margin industry. Results from this work have shown that the relaxation of system operation constraints is crucial to the economic running of the electricity system with large improvements shown in the reduction of wind curtailment and system generation costs. There are clear benefits in having a proportion of the wind installed offshore in Ireland which would help to reduce variability of wind energy generation on the system and therefore reduce wind curtailment. With envisaged future improvements in day-ahead wind forecasting from 8% to 4% mean absolute error, there are potential reductions in wind curtailment system costs and open cycle gas turbine usage. This work illustrates the consequences of assumptions in the areas of system operation constraints, onshore/offshore installed wind capacities and accuracy in wind forecasting to better inform the true costs associated with running Ireland's changing electricity system as it continues to decarbonise into the near future. This work also proposes to illustrate, through the use of Ireland as a case study, the effects that will become ever more prevalent in other synchronous systems as they pursue a path of increasing renewable energy generation.

RNA Virus Evolution: a Cross-scale, Disease Dynamic Perspective

RNA viruses are an important cause of global morbidity and mortality. The rapid evolutionary rates of RNA virus pathogens, caused by high replication rates and error-prone polymerases, can make the pathogens difficult to control. RNA viruses can undergo immune escape within their hosts and develop resistance to the treatment and vaccines we design to fight them. Understanding the spread and evolution of RNA pathogens is essential for reducing human suffering. In this dissertation, I make use of the rapid evolutionary rate of viral pathogens to answer several questions about how RNA viruses spread and evolve. To address each of the questions, I link mathematical techniques for modeling viral population dynamics with phylogenetic and coalescent techniques for analyzing and modeling viral genetic sequences and evolution. The first project uses multi-scale mechanistic modeling to show that decreases in viral substitution rates over the course of an acute infection, combined with the timing of infectious hosts transmitting new infections to susceptible individuals, can account for discrepancies in viral substitution rates in different host populations. The second project combines coalescent models with within-host mathematical models to identify driving evolutionary forces in chronic hepatitis C virus infection. The third project compares the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic viral transmission rate variation on viral phylogenies.