Do retail investors use technical analysis? Evidence from Stuttgart stock exchange.

Tutkielma käyttää automaattista kuviontunnistusalgoritmia ja yleisiä kahden liukuvan keskiarvon leikkauspiste –sääntöjä selittääkseen Stuttgartin pörssissä toimivien yksityissijoittajien myynti-osto –epätasapainoa ja siten vastatakseen kysymykseen ”käyttävätkö yksityissijoittajat teknisen analyysin menetelmiä kaupankäyntipäätöstensä perustana?” Perusolettama sijoittajien käyttäytymisestä ja teknisen analyysin tuottavuudesta tehtyjen tutkimusten perusteella oli, että yksityissijoittajat käyttäisivät teknisen analyysin metodeja. Empiirinen tutkimus, jonka aineistona on DAX30 yhtiöiden data vuosilta 2009 – 2013, ei tuottanut riittävän selkeää vastausta tutkimuskysymykseen. Heikko todistusaineisto näyttää kuitenkin osoittavan, että yksityissijoittajat muuttavat kaupankäyntikäyttäytymistänsä eräiden kuvioiden ja leikkauspistesääntöjen ohjastamaan suuntaan.

Time Varying Conditional Correlation Between Stock And Bond Returns: Evidence From CIVETS Nations

This thesis estimates long-run time variant conditional correlation between stock and bond returns of CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa) nations. Further, aims to analyse the presence of asymmetric volatility effect in both asset returns, as well as, obverses increment or decrement in conditional correlation during pre-crisis and crisis period, which lead to make a reliable diversification decision. The Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH model of Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model (Engle 2002), and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) GARCH model of Cappiello, Engle, and Sheppard (2006) were implemented in the study. The analyses present strong evidence of time-varying conditional correlation in CIVETS markets, excluding Vietnam, during 2005-2013. In addition, negative innovation effects were found in both conditional variance and correlation of the asset returns. The results of this study recommend investors to include financial assets from these markets in portfolios, in order to obtain better stock-bond diversification benefits, especially during high volatility periods.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Spectrum of stock price behavior - NYSE case study

The desire to create a statistical or mathematical model, which would allow predicting the future changes in stock prices, was born many years ago. Economists and mathematicians are trying to solve this task by applying statistical analysis and physical laws, but there are still no satisfactory results. The main reason for this is that a stock exchange is a non-stationary, unstable and complex system, which is influenced by many factors. In this thesis the New York Stock Exchange was considered as the system to be explored. A topological analysis, basic statistical tools and singular value decomposition were conducted for understanding the behavior of the market. Two methods for normalization of initial daily closure prices by Dow Jones and S&P500 were introduced and applied for further analysis. As a result, some unexpected features were identified, such as a shape of distribution of correlation matrix, a bulk of which is shifted to the right hand side with respect to zero. Also non-ergodicity of NYSE was confirmed graphically. It was shown, that singular vectors differ from each other by a constant factor. There are for certain results no clear conclusions from this work, but it creates a good basis for the further analysis of market topology.

Diagnostic profile of inpatients as a determinant of length of stay in a general hospital psychiatric unit

The aim of this study was to determine if the diagnostic profile of inpatients of a psychiatric unit in a general hospital influences the length of stay. The results of a retrospective survey comprising the first 16 years of operation of the Psychiatric Unit of the Ribeirão Preto General Hospital (PURP) showed that the progressive increase observed in the length of stay correlated with the increase in percentage of schizophrenia diagnosis, after the 8th year of hospital operation, and of affective disorders, after the 12th year. The length of hospitalization kept increasing until the 16th year, even though there was no change in the diagnostic profile of the patients admitted to the unit. In a prospective study encompassing the next six months, 61 inpatients were evaluated with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-III-R and the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS). The results showed that 82% of the inpatients fulfilled the diagnostic criteria for the schizophrenic or affective disorder spectrum at admission, with a discharge rate slower than for other diagnoses, although the length of hospitalization did not significantly differ among diagnostic categories. The results further demonstrated that in every diagnostic category more than 50% of the patients stayed in hospital for more than one week after reaching a BPRS score equal to 6, indicative of discharge. Overall, these data suggest that the increase in length of hospitalization may be due to a higher percentage of patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia and affective disorder admitted to the PURP. In addition, patients with low symptomatic levels remained in hospital longer than they should have.

Regime-Switching in the Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries

Research has highlighted the adequacy of Markov regime-switching model to address dynamic behavior in long term stock market movements. Employing a purposed Extended regime-switching GARCH(1,1) model, this thesis further investigates the regime dependent nonlinear relationship between changes in oil price and stock market volatility in Saudi Arabia, Norway and Singapore for the period of 2001-2014. Market selection is prioritized to national dependency on oil export or import, which also rationalizes the fitness of implied bivariate volatility model. Among two regimes identified by the mean model, high stock market return-low volatility regime reflects the stable economic growth periods. The other regime characterized by low stock market return-high volatility coincides with episodes of recession and downturn. Moreover, results of volatility model provide the evidence that shocks in stock markets are less persistent during the high volatility regime. While accelerated oil price rises the stock market volatility during recessions, it reduces the stock market risk during normal growth periods in Singapore. In contrast, oil price showed no significant notable impact on stock market volatility of target oil-exporting countries in either of the volatility regime. In light to these results, international investors and policy makers could benefit the risk management in relation to oil price fluctuation.

Chance of psychiatric morbidity amongst recently diagnosed cancer outpatients attending a chemotherapy unit

The prevalent rate of psychiatry morbidity amongst patients with cancer reported in various studies ranges from 5 to 50%, a variation that can be attributed to differences in sample size, the disease itself and treatment factors. The objectives of the present study were to determine the frequency of psychiatric morbidity amongst recently diagnosed cancer outpatients and try to identify which factors might be related to further psychological distress. Two hundred and eleven (70.9%) female patients and 87 (29.1%) male patients from the chemotherapy unit of the Cancer Hospital A.C. Camargo (São Paulo) completed a questionnaire that featured data on demographic, medical and treatment details. The Self Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20) was administered to the patients to determine their personal psychiatric morbidity. Seventy-two patients (25.8%) scored > or = 8 in the SRQ-20, the cut-off point for a patient to be considered a psychiatric case. When the low and high scoring groups were compared no differences were detected regarding age, marital status, tumor site, sex, or previous treatment. Nonetheless, patients in the lowest social class and those who were bedridden less than 50% of the time had a significantly higher probability of being a psychiatric case. Regarding help-seeking behavior in situations in which they had doubts or were frightened, about 64% of the total sample did not seek any type of support and did not talk to anyone. This frequency of psychiatric morbidity agrees with data from the cancer literature. According to many investigators, the early detection of a comorbid psychiatric disorder is crucial to relieve a patient's suffering.

Dynamic linkages of real estate and stock markets in Finland

Traditionally real estate has been seen as a good diversification tool for a stock portfolio due to the lower return and volatility characteristics of real estate investments. However, the diversification benefits of a multi-asset portfolio depend on how the different asset classes co-move in the short- and long-run. As the asset classes are affected by the same macroeconomic factors, interrelationships limiting the diversification benefits could exist. This master’s thesis aims to identify such dynamic linkages in the Finnish real estate and stock markets. The results are beneficial for portfolio optimization tasks as well as for policy-making. The real estate industry can be divided into direct and securitized markets. In this thesis the direct market is depicted by the Finnish housing market index. The securitized market is proxied by the Finnish all-sectors securitized real estate index and by a European residential Real Estate Investment Trust index. The stock market is depicted by OMX Helsinki Cap index. Several macroeconomic variables are incorporated as well. The methodology of this thesis is based on the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. The long-run dynamic linkages are studied with Johansen’s cointegration tests and the short-run interrelationships are examined with Granger-causality tests. In addition, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analyses are used for robustness checks. The results show that long-run co-movement, or cointegration, did not exist between the housing and stock markets during the sample period. This indicates diversification benefits in the long-run. However, cointegration between the stock and securitized real estate markets was identified. This indicates limited diversification benefits and shows that the listed real estate market in Finland is not matured enough to be considered a separate market from the general stock market. Moreover, while securitized real estate was shown to cointegrate with the housing market in the long-run, the two markets are still too different in their characteristics to be used as substitutes in a multi-asset portfolio. This implies that the capital intensiveness of housing investments cannot be circumvented by investing in securitized real estate.

Incidence, risk factors and prognostic factors of acute renal failure in patients admitted to an intensive care unit

The objective of the present study was to assess the incidence, risk factors and outcome of patients who develop acute renal failure (ARF) in intensive care units. In this prospective observational study, 221 patients with a 48-h minimum stay, 18-year-old minimum age and absence of overt acute or chronic renal failure were included. Exclusion criteria were organ donors and renal transplantation patients. ARF was defined as a creatinine level above 1.5 mg/dL. Statistics were performed using Pearsons' chi2 test, Student t-test, and Wilcoxon test. Multivariate analysis was run using all variables with P < 0.1 in the univariate analysis. ARF developed in 19.0% of the patients, with 76.19% resulting in death. Main risk factors (univariate analysis) were: higher intra-operative hydration and bleeding, higher death risk by APACHE II score, logist organ dysfunction system on the first day, mechanical ventilation, shock due to systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS)/sepsis, noradrenaline use, and plasma creatinine and urea levels on admission. Heart rate on admission (OR = 1.023 (1.002-1.044)), male gender (OR = 4.275 (1.340-13642)), shock due to SIRS/sepsis (OR = 8.590 (2.710-27.229)), higher intra-operative hydration (OR = 1.002 (1.000-1004)), and plasma urea on admission (OR = 1.012 (0.980-1044)) remained significant (multivariate analysis). The mortality risk factors (univariate analysis) were shock due to SIRS/sepsis, mechanical ventilation, blood stream infection, potassium and bicarbonate levels. Only potassium levels remained significant (P = 0.037). In conclusion, ARF has a high incidence, morbidity and mortality when it occurs in intensive care unit. There is a very close association with hemodynamic status and multiple organ dysfunction.

Vancomycin-resistant enterococcus outbreak in a pediatric intensive care unit: report of successful interventions for control and prevention

The objective of this study is to retrospectively report the results of interventions for controlling a vancomycin-resistant enterococcus (VRE) outbreak in a tertiary-care pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of a University Hospital. After identification of the outbreak, interventions were made at the following levels: patient care, microbiological surveillance, and medical and nursing staff training. Data were collected from computer-based databases and from the electronic prescription system. Vancomycin use progressively increased after March 2008, peaking in August 2009. Five cases of VRE infection were identified, with 3 deaths. After the interventions, we noted a significant reduction in vancomycin prescription and use (75% reduction), and the last case of VRE infection was identified 4 months later. The survivors remained colonized until hospital discharge. After interventions there was a transient increase in PICU length-of-stay and mortality. Since then, the use of vancomycin has remained relatively constant and strict, no other cases of VRE infection or colonization have been identified and length-of-stay and mortality returned to baseline. In conclusion, we showed that a bundle intervention aiming at a strict control of vancomycin use and full compliance with the Hospital Infection Control Practices Advisory Committee guidelines, along with contact precautions and hand-hygiene promotion, can be effective in reducing vancomycin use and the emergence and spread of vancomycin-resistant bacteria in a tertiary-care PICU.

Salvaged single-unit cord blood transplantation for 26 patients with hematologic malignancies not in remission

Treatments for patients with hematologic malignancies not in remission are limited, but a few clinical studies have investigated the effects of salvaged unrelated cord blood transplantation (CBT). We retrospectively studied 19 patients with acute leukemia, 5 with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS with refractory anemia with excess blasts [RAEB]), and 2 with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma who received 1 CBT unit ≤2 loci human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-mismatched after undergoing myeloablative conditioning regimens between July 2005 and July 2014. All of them were in non-remission before transplantation. The infused total nucleated cell (TNC) dose was 4.07 (range 2.76-6.02)×107/kg and that of CD34+ stem cells was 2.08 (range 0.99-8.65)×105/kg. All patients were engrafted with neutrophils that exceeded 0.5×109/L on median day +17 (range 14-37 days) and had platelet counts of >20×109/L on median day +35 (range 17-70 days). Sixteen patients (61.5%) experienced pre-engraftment syndrome (PES), and six (23.1%) patients progressed to acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). The cumulative incidence rates of II-IV acute GVHD and chronic GVHD were 50% and 26.9%, respectively. After a median follow-up of 27 months (range 5-74), 14 patients survived and 3 relapsed. The estimated 2-year overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and non-relapse mortality (NRM) rates were 50.5%, 40.3%, and 35.2%, respectively. Salvaged CBT might be a promising modality for treating hematologic malignancies, even in patients with a high leukemia burden.