Development of a particle number and particle mass emissions inventory for an urban fleet : a study in South-East Queensland

Motor vehicles are a major source of gaseous and particulate matter pollution in urban areas, particularly of ultrafine sized particles (diameters < 0.1 µm). Exposure to particulate matter has been found to be associated with serious health effects, including respiratory and cardiovascular disease, and mortality. Particle emissions generated by motor vehicles span a very broad size range (from around 0.003-10 µm) and are measured as different subsets of particle mass concentrations or particle number count. However, there exist scientific challenges in analysing and interpreting the large data sets on motor vehicle emission factors, and no understanding is available of the application of different particle metrics as a basis for air quality regulation. To date a comprehensive inventory covering the broad size range of particles emitted by motor vehicles, and which includes particle number, does not exist anywhere in the world. This thesis covers research related to four important and interrelated aspects pertaining to particulate matter generated by motor vehicle fleets. These include the derivation of suitable particle emission factors for use in transport modelling and health impact assessments; quantification of motor vehicle particle emission inventories; investigation of the particle characteristic modality within particle size distributions as a potential for developing air quality regulation; and review and synthesis of current knowledge on ultrafine particles as it relates to motor vehicles; and the application of these aspects to the quantification, control and management of motor vehicle particle emissions. In order to quantify emissions in terms of a comprehensive inventory, which covers the full size range of particles emitted by motor vehicle fleets, it was necessary to derive a suitable set of particle emission factors for different vehicle and road type combinations for particle number, particle volume, PM1, PM2.5 and PM1 (mass concentration of particles with aerodynamic diameters < 1 µm, < 2.5 µm and < 10 µm respectively). The very large data set of emission factors analysed in this study were sourced from measurement studies conducted in developed countries, and hence the derived set of emission factors are suitable for preparing inventories in other urban regions of the developed world. These emission factors are particularly useful for regions with a lack of measurement data to derive emission factors, or where experimental data are available but are of insufficient scope. The comprehensive particle emissions inventory presented in this thesis is the first published inventory of tailpipe particle emissions prepared for a motor vehicle fleet, and included the quantification of particle emissions covering the full size range of particles emitted by vehicles, based on measurement data. The inventory quantified particle emissions measured in terms of particle number and different particle mass size fractions. It was developed for the urban South-East Queensland fleet in Australia, and included testing the particle emission implications of future scenarios for different passenger and freight travel demand. The thesis also presents evidence of the usefulness of examining modality within particle size distributions as a basis for developing air quality regulations; and finds evidence to support the relevance of introducing a new PM1 mass ambient air quality standard for the majority of environments worldwide. The study found that a combination of PM1 and PM10 standards are likely to be a more discerning and suitable set of ambient air quality standards for controlling particles emitted from combustion and mechanically-generated sources, such as motor vehicles, than the current mass standards of PM2.5 and PM10. The study also reviewed and synthesized existing knowledge on ultrafine particles, with a specific focus on those originating from motor vehicles. It found that motor vehicles are significant contributors to both air pollution and ultrafine particles in urban areas, and that a standardized measurement procedure is not currently available for ultrafine particles. The review found discrepancies exist between outcomes of instrumentation used to measure ultrafine particles; that few data is available on ultrafine particle chemistry and composition, long term monitoring; characterization of their spatial and temporal distribution in urban areas; and that no inventories for particle number are available for motor vehicle fleets. This knowledge is critical for epidemiological studies and exposure-response assessment. Conclusions from this review included the recommendation that ultrafine particles in populated urban areas be considered a likely target for future air quality regulation based on particle number, due to their potential impacts on the environment. The research in this PhD thesis successfully integrated the elements needed to quantify and manage motor vehicle fleet emissions, and its novelty relates to the combining of expertise from two distinctly separate disciplines - from aerosol science and transport modelling. The new knowledge and concepts developed in this PhD research provide never before available data and methods which can be used to develop comprehensive, size-resolved inventories of motor vehicle particle emissions, and air quality regulations to control particle emissions to protect the health and well-being of current and future generations.

Development and implementation of the areawide Dynamic ROad traffic NoisE (DRONE) simulator

This paper discusses the areawide Dynamic ROad traffic NoisE (DRONE) simulator, and its implementation as a tool for noise abatement policy evaluation. DRONE involves integrating a road traffic noise estimation model with a traffic simulator to estimate road traffic noise in urban networks. An integrated traffic simulation-noise estimation model provides an interface for direct input of traffic flow properties from simulation model to noise estimation model that in turn estimates the noise on a spatial and temporal scale. The output from DRONE is linked with a geographical information system for visual representation of noise levels in the form of noise contour maps.

Urban renewal from the inside out: Spatial and critical literacies in a low socioeconomic school community

This article focuses on how teachers worked to build a meaningful curriculum around changes to a neighborhood and school grounds in a precinct listed for urban renewal. Drawing on a long-term relationship with the principal and one teacher, the researchers planned and designed a collaborative project to involve children as active participants in the redevelopment process, negotiating and redesigning an area between the preschool and the school. The research investigated spatial literacies, that is, ways of thinking about and representing the production of spaces, and critical literacies, in this instance how young people might have a say in remaking part of their school grounds. Data included videotapes of key events, interviews, and an archive of the elementary students' artifacts experimenting with spatial literacies. The project builds on the insights of community members and researchers working for social justice in high-poverty areas internationally that indicate the importance of education, local action, family, and youth involvement in building sustainable and equitable communities.

Vectors and alternative hosts of tobacco yellow dwarf virus in southeastern Australia

Factors that determine the epidemiology of Tobacco yellow dwarf virus (TbYDV), including alternative host plants and insect vector(s), were assessed over three consecutive growing seasons at four field sites in Northeastern Victoria in commercial tobacco growing properties. In addition, these factors were assessed for one growing season at three bean growing properties. Overall, 23 leafhopper species were identified at the 7 sites, with Orosius orientalis as the predominant leafhopper. Of the leafhoppers collected, only O. orientalis and Anzygina zealandica tested positive for TbYDV by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The population dynamics of O. orientalis was assessed using sweep net sampling over three growing seasons and a trimodal distribution was observed. Despite large numbers of O. orientalis occurring early in the growing season (September–October), TbYDV was only detected in these leafhoppers between late November and end of January. The peaks in the detection of TbYDV in O. orientalis correlated with the observation of disease symptoms in tobacco and bean and were associated with warmer temperatures and lower rainfall. Spatial and temporal distribution of vegetation at selected sites was determined using quadrat sampling. Of the 40 plant species identified, TbYDV was detected only in four dicotyledonous species, Amaranthus retroflexus, Phaseolus vulgaris, Nicotiana tabacum and Raphanus raphanistrum. The proportion of host and non-host availability for leafhoppers was associated with climatic conditions.

Ecology and behavior of first instar larval Lepidoptera

Neonate Lepidoptera are confronted with the daunting task of establishing themselves on a food plant. The factors relevant to this process need to be considered at spatial and temporal scales relevant to the larva and not the investigator. Neonates have to cope with an array of plant surface characters as well as internal characters once the integument is ruptured. These characters, as well as microclimatic conditions, vary within and between plant modules and interact with larval feeding requirements, strongly affecting movement behavior, which may be extensive even for such small organisms. In addition to these factors, there is an array of predators, pathogens, and parasitoids with which first instars must contend. Not surprisingly, mortality in neonates is high but can vary widely. Experimental and manipulative studies, as well as detailed observations of the animal, are vital if the subtle interaction of factors responsible for this high and variable mortality are to be understood. These studies are essential for an understanding of theories linking female oviposition behavior with larval survival, plant defense theory, and population dynamics, as well as modern crop resistance breeding programs.

Osteoclastic activity begins early and increases over the course of bone healing

Osteoclasts are specialised bone-resorbing cells. This particular ability makes osteoclasts irreplaceable for the continual physiological process of bone remodelling as well as for the repair process during bone healing. Whereas the effects of systemic diseases on osteoclasts have been described by many authors, the spatial and temporal distribution of osteoclasts during bone healing seems to be unclear so far. In the present study, healing of a tibial osteotomy under standardised external fixation was examined after 2, 3, 6 and 9 weeks (n = 8) in sheep. The osteoclastic number was counted, the area of mineralised bone tissue was measured histomorphometrically and density of osteoclasts per square millimetre mineralised tissue was calculated. The osteoclastic density in the endosteal region increased, whereas the density in the periosteal region remained relatively constant. The density of osteoclasts within the cortical bone increased slightly over the first 6 weeks, however, there was a more rapid increase between the sixth and ninth weeks. The findings of this study imply that remodelling and resorption take place already in the very early phase of bone healing. The most frequent remodelling process can be found in the periosteal callus, emphasising its role as the main stabiliser. The endosteal space undergoes resorption in order to recanalise the medullary cavity, a process also started in the very early phase of healing at a low level and increasing significantly during healing. The cortical bone adapts in its outward appearance to the surrounding callus structure. This paradoxic loosening is caused by the continually increasing number and density of osteoclasts in the cortical bone ends. This study clearly emphasises the osteoclastic role especially during early bone healing. These cells do not simply resorb bone but participate in a fine adjusted system with the bone-producing osteoblasts in order to maintain and improve the structural strength of bone tissue.

Children’s food and activity patterns following a six-month child weight management program

Objective To describe the impact of a parent-led, family focused child weight management program on the food intake and activity patterns of pre-pubertal children. Methods n assessor-blinded, randomized controlled trial involving 111 (64% female) overweight, pre-pubertal children 6 to 9 years of age randomly assigned to parenting-skills training plus intensive lifestyle education, parenting-skills training alone, or a 12-month wait-listed control. Study outcomes were assessed at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. This paper presents data on food intake assessed via a validated 54-item parent completed dietary questionnaire and activity behaviours assessed via a parent-report 20-item activity questionnaire. Results Intake of energy-dense nutrient poor foods was lower in both intervention groups at 6 months (mean difference, P+DA -1.5 serves [CI -2.0;-1.0]; P -1.0 serves [-2.0;-0.5]) and 12 months (mean difference P+DA -1.0 serves [CI -2.0;-0.5]; P -1.0 serves [-1.5; 0.0]) compared to baseline. Intake of vegetables, fruit, breads and cereals, meat and alternatives and dairy foods remained unchanged. Regardless of study group there were significant reductions over time in the reported time spent engaged in small screen activities and an increase in the time reported spent in active play. Conclusion Child weight management intervention that promotes food intake in line with national dietary guidelines achieves a reduction in children’s intake of energy dense, nutrient poor foods. This was achieved without compromising intake of nutrient-rich food and changes in were maintained even once the intervention ceased.

Mining positive and negative patterns for relevance feature discovery

It is a big challenge to guarantee the quality of discovered relevance features in text documents for describing user preferences because of the large number of terms, patterns, and noise. Most existing popular text mining and classification methods have adopted term-based approaches. However, they have all suffered from the problems of polysemy and synonymy. Over the years, people have often held the hypothesis that pattern-based methods should perform better than term-based ones in describing user preferences, but many experiments do not support this hypothesis. The innovative technique presented in paper makes a breakthrough for this difficulty. This technique discovers both positive and negative patterns in text documents as higher level features in order to accurately weight low-level features (terms) based on their specificity and their distributions in the higher level features. Substantial experiments using this technique on Reuters Corpus Volume 1 and TREC topics show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms both the state-of-the-art term-based methods underpinned by Okapi BM25, Rocchio or Support Vector Machine and pattern based methods on precision, recall and F measures.

Photoinduced conjugation of Dithioester- and Trithiocarbonate-Functional RAFT polymers with alkenes

We report the photoinduced conjugation of polymers synthesized via reversible addition−fragmentation chain transfer (RAFT) polymerization with a number of low molecular weight (functional) olefins. Upon irradiation of a solution of an aliphatic alkene and the benzyl dithioacetic acid ester (CPDA) or dodecyl trithiocarbonate (DoPAT) functional poly(alkyl acrylate) at the absorption wavelength of the thiocarbonyl group (315 nm), incorporation of the alkene at the polymer chain-end occurred. The most efficient systems identified with regard to the rate of reaction and yield were poly(butyl acrylate)/CPDA/ethyl vinyl ether (78% monoinsertion product after 1 h) and poly(butyl acrylate)/CPDA/1-pentene (73% insertion product after 7 h) at ambient temperature. An in-depth analysis of the reaction mechanism by 1H NMR and online size-exclusion chromatography-electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry (SEC/ESI−MSn) revealed that a possible [2 + 2] photoaddition mechanism of conjugation does not take place. Instead, fast β-cleavage of the photoexcited RAFT-end group with subsequent radical addition of an alkene was observed for all employed systems. The presented reaction thus provides a means of spatial and temporal control for the conjugation of alkenes to thiocarbonyl thio-capped macromolecules via the use of UV radiation.

Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.

Assessment of flood-related recharge to alluvial aquifers of an irrigated catchment following extended drought conditions using 3D visualisation and environmental tracers, Lockyer Valley, southeast Queensland, Australia.

The Lockyer Valley in southeast Queensland, Australia, hosts an economically significant alluvial aquifer system which has been impacted by prolonged drought conditions (~1997 to ~ 2009). Throughout this time, the system was under continued groundwater extraction, resulting in severe aquifer depletion. By 2008, much of the aquifer was at <30% of storage but some relief occurred with rains in early 2009. However, between December 2010 and January 2011, most of southeast Queensland experienced unprecedented flooding, which generated significant aquifer recharge. In order to understand the spatial and temporal controls of groundwater recharge in the alluvium, a detailed 3D lithological property model of gravels, sands and clays was developed using GOCAD software. The spatial distribution of recharge throughout the catchment was assessed using hydrograph data from about 400 groundwater observation wells screened at the base of the alluvium. Water levels from these bores were integrated into a catchment-wide 3D geological model using the 3D geological modelling software GOCAD; the model highlights the complexity of recharge mechanisms. To support this analysis, groundwater tracers (e.g. major and minor ions, stable isotopes, 3H and 14C) were used as independent verification. The use of these complementary methods has allowed the identification of zones where alluvial recharge primarily occurs from stream water during episodic flood events. However, the study also demonstrates that in some sections of the alluvium, rainfall recharge and discharge from the underlying basement into the alluvium are the primary recharge mechanisms of the alluvium. This is indicated by the absence of any response to the flood, as well as the observed old radiocarbon ages and distinct basement water chemistry signatures at these locations. Within the 3D geological model, integration of water chemistry and time-series displays of water level surfaces before and after the flood suggests that the spatial variations of the flood response in the alluvium are primarily controlled by the valley morphology and lithological variations within the alluvium. The integration of time-series of groundwater level surfaces in the 3D geological model also enables the quantification of the volumetric change of groundwater stored in the unconfined sections of this alluvial aquifer during drought and following flood events. The 3D representation and analysis of hydraulic and recharge information has considerable advantages over the traditional 2D approach. For example, while many studies focus on singular aspects of catchment dynamics and groundwater-surface water interactions, the 3D approach is capable of integrating multiple types of information (topography, geological, hydraulic, water chemistry and spatial) into a single representation which provides valuable insights into the major factors controlling aquifer processes.

Assessment of interactions between alluvial, Great Artesian Basin (GAB) and volcanic aquifers using 3D visualisation and environmental tracers, Lockyer Valley, southeast Queensland, Australia

A detailed 3D lithological model framework was developed using GOCAD software to understand interactions between alluvial, volcanic and GAB aquifers and the spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge to the alluvium of the Lockyer Valley. Groundwater chemistry, isotope data (H20-δ2H and δ18O , 87Sr/86Sr, 3H and 14C) and groundwater level time-series data from approximately 550 observation wells were integrated into the catchment-wide 3D model to assess the recharge processes involved. This approach enabled the identification of zones where recharge to the alluvium primarily occurs from stream water during episodic flood events. Importantly, the study also demonstrates that in some sections of the alluvium recharge is also from storm rainfall and seepage discharge from the underlying GAB aquifers. These other sources of recharge are indicated by (a) the absence of a response of groundwater levels to flooding in some areas, (b) old radiocarbon ages, and (c) distinct bedrock water chemistry and δ2H and δ18O signatures in alluvial groundwater at these locations. Integration of isotopes, water chemistry and time-series displays of groundwater levels before and after the 2010/2011 flood into the 3D model suggest that the spatial variations in the alluvial groundwater response are mostly controlled by valley morphology and lithological (i.e. permeability) variations within the alluvium. Examination of the groundwater level variations in the 3D model also enabled quantification of the volumetric change of groundwater stored in the unconfined alluvial aquifer prior to and post-flood events.

Economic growth and inequality patterns in the presence of costly technology adoption and uncertainty

We develop a stochastic endogenous growth model to explain the diversity in growth and inequality patterns and the non-convergence of incomes in transitional economies where an underdeveloped financial sector imposes an implicit, fixed cost on the diversification of idiosyncratic risk. In the model endogenous growth occurs through physical and human capital deepening, with the latter being the more dominant element. We interpret the fixed cost as a ‘learning by doing’ cost for entrepreneurs who undertake risk in the absence of well developed financial markets and institutions that help diversify such risk. As such, this cost may be interpreted as the implicit returns foregone due to the lack of diversification opportunities that would otherwise have been available, had such institutions been present. The analytical and numerical results of the model suggest three growth outcomes depending on the productivity differences between the projects and the fixed cost associated with the more productive project. We label these outcomes as poverty trap, dual economy and balanced growth. Further analysis of these three outcomes highlights the existence of a diversity within diversity. Specifically, within the ‘poverty trap’ and ‘dual economy’ scenarios growth and inequality patterns differ, depending on the initial conditions. This additional diversity allows the model to capture a richer range of outcomes that are consistent with the empirical experience of several transitional economies.

Benefit cost analysis applied to behavioral and engineering safety countermeasures in San Francisco, California

The state of the practice in safety has advanced rapidly in recent years with the emergence of new tools and processes for improving selection of the most cost-effective safety countermeasures. However, many challenges prevent fair and objective comparisons of countermeasures applied across safety disciplines (e.g. engineering, emergency services, and behavioral measures). These countermeasures operate at different spatial scales, are funded often by different financial sources and agencies, and have associated costs and benefits that are difficult to estimate. This research proposes a methodology by which both behavioral and engineering safety investments are considered and compared in a specific local context. The methodology involves a multi-stage process that enables the analyst to select countermeasures that yield high benefits to costs, are targeted for a particular project, and that may involve costs and benefits that accrue over varying spatial and temporal scales. The methodology is illustrated using a case study from the Geary Boulevard Corridor in San Francisco, California. The case study illustrates that: 1) The methodology enables the identification and assessment of a wide range of safety investment types at the project level; 2) The nature of crash histories lend themselves to the selection of both behavioral and engineering investments, requiring cooperation across agencies; and 3) The results of the cost-benefit analysis are highly sensitive to cost and benefit assumptions, and thus listing and justification of all assumptions is required. It is recommended that a sensitivity analyses be conducted when there is large uncertainty surrounding cost and benefit assumptions.