Quantifying the effects of perturbing the physics of an interactive sulfur scheme using an ensemble of GCMs on the climateprediction.net platform

Aerosols from anthropogenic and natural sources have been recognized as having an important impact on the climate system. However, the small size of aerosol particles (ranging from 0.01 to more than 10 μm in diameter) and their influence on solar and terrestrial radiation makes them difficult to represent within the coarse resolution of general circulation models (GCMs) such that small-scale processes, for example, sulfate formation and conversion, need parameterizing. It is the parameterization of emissions, conversion, and deposition and the radiative effects of aerosol particles that causes uncertainty in their representation within GCMs. The aim of this study was to perturb aspects of a sulfur cycle scheme used within a GCM to represent the climatological impacts of sulfate aerosol derived from natural and anthropogenic sulfur sources. It was found that perturbing volcanic SO2 emissions and the scavenging rate of SO2 by precipitation had the largest influence on the sulfate burden. When these parameters were perturbed the sulfate burden ranged from 0.73 to 1.17 TgS for 2050 sulfur emissions (A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)), comparable with the range in sulfate burden across all the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRESs. Thus, the results here suggest that the range in sulfate burden due to model uncertainty is comparable with scenario uncertainty. Despite the large range in sulfate burden there was little influence on the climate sensitivity, which had a range of less than 0.5 K across the ensemble. We hypothesize that this small effect was partly associated with high sulfate loadings in the control phase of the experiment.

Stratospheric temperature and radiative forcing response to 11-year solar cycle changes in irradiance and ozone

The 11-yr solar cycle temperature response to spectrally resolved solar irradiance changes and associated ozone changes is calculated using a fixed dynamical heating (FDH) model. Imposed ozone changes are from satellite observations, in contrast to some earlier studies. A maximum of 1.6 K is found in the equatorial upper stratosphere and a secondary maximum of 0.4 K in the equatorial lower stratosphere, forming a double peak in the vertical. The upper maximum is primarily due to the irradiance changes while the lower maximum is due to the imposed ozone changes. The results compare well with analyses using the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and NCEP/NCAR datasets. The equatorial lower stratospheric structure is reproduced even though, by definition, the FDH calculations exclude dynamically driven temperature changes, suggesting an important role for an indirect dynamical effect through ozone redistribution. The results also suggest that differences between the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU)/Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and ERA-40 estimates of the solar cycle signal can be explained by the poor vertical resolution of the SSU/MSU measurements. The adjusted radiative forcing of climate change is also investigated. The forcing due to irradiance changes was 0.14 W m−2, which is only 78% of the value obtained by employing the standard method of simple scaling of the total solar irradiance (TSI) change. The difference arises because much of the change in TSI is at wavelengths where ozone absorbs strongly. The forcing due to the ozone change was only 0.004 W m−2 owing to strong compensation between negative shortwave and positive longwave forcings.

Life cycle of the QBO-modulated 11-year solar cycle signals in the Northern Hemispheric winter

This paper provides some insights on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulated 11-year solar cycle (11-yr SC) signals in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter temperature and zonal wind. Daily ERA-40 Reanalysis and ECMWF Operational data for the period of 1958-2006 were used to examine the seasonal evolution of the QBO-solar cycle relationship at various pressure levels up to the stratopause. The results show that the solar signals in the NH winter extratropics are indeed QBO-phase dependent, moving poleward and downward as winter progresses with a faster descent rate under westerly QBO than under easterly QBO. In the stratosphere, the signals are highly significant in late January to early March and have a life span of 30-50 days. Under westerly QBO, the stratospheric solar signals clearly lead and connect to those in the troposphere in late March and early April where they have a life span of 10 days. As the structure changes considerably from the upper stratosphere to the lower troposphere, the exact month when the maximum solar signals occur depends largely on the altitude chosen. For the low-latitude stratosphere, our analysis supports a vertical double-peaked structure of positive signature of the 11-yr SC in temperature, and demonstrates that this structure is further modulated by the QBO. These solar signals have a longer life span (3-4 months) in comparison to those in the extratropics. The solar signals in the lower stratosphere are stronger in early winter but weaker in late winter, while the reverse holds in the upper stratosphere.

Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO

In most climate simulations used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 fourth assessment report, stratospheric processes are only poorly represented. For example, climatological or simple specifications of time-varying ozone concentrations are imposed and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric zonal wind is absent. Here we investigate the impact of an improved stratospheric representation using two sets of perturbed simulations with the Hadley Centre coupled ocean atmosphere model HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the 1979–2003 period. In the first set of simulations, the usual zonal mean ozone climatology with superimposed trends is replaced with a time series of observed zonal mean ozone distributions that includes interannual variability associated with the solar cycle, QBO and volcanic eruptions. In addition to this, the second set of perturbed simulations includes a scheme in which the stratospheric zonal wind in the tropics is relaxed to appropriate zonal mean values obtained from the ERA-40 re-analysis, thus forcing a QBO. Both of these changes are applied strictly to the stratosphere only. The improved ozone field results in an improved simulation of the stepwise temperature transitions observed in the lower stratosphere in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions. The contribution of the solar cycle signal in the ozone field to this improved representation of the stepwise cooling is discussed. The improved ozone field and also the QBO result in an improved simulation of observed trends, both globally and at tropical latitudes. The Eulerian upwelling in the lower stratosphere in the equatorial region is enhanced by the improved ozone field and is affected by the QBO relaxation, yet neither induces a significant change in the upwelling trend.

Estimating surface net solar radiation by use of Landsat-5 TM and digital elevation models

The ground surface net solar radiation is the energy that drives physical and chemical processes at the ground surface. In this paper, multi-spectral data from the Landsat-5 TM, topographic data from a gridded digital elevation model, field measurements, and the atmosphere model LOWTRAN 7 are used to estimate surface net solar radiation over the FIFE site. Firstly an improved method is presented and used for calculating total surface incoming radiation. Then, surface albedo is integrated from surface reflectance factors derived from remotely sensed data from Landsat-5 TM. Finally, surface net solar radiation is calculated by subtracting surface upwelling radiation from the total surface incoming radiation.