Flux and sources of nutrients in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin: Topic 3 Report for the Integrated Assessment on Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico.

Ths report addresses the following two questions: 1) What are the loads (flux) of nutrients transported from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico, and where do they come from within the basin? 2) What is the relative importance of specific human activities, such as agriculture, point-source discharges, and atmospheric deposition in contributing to these loads? These questions were addressed by first estimating the flux of nutrients from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin and about 50 interior basins in the Mississippi River system using measured historical streamflow and water quality data. Annual nutrient inputs and outputs to each basin were estimated using data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service, National Atmospheric Deposition Program, and point-source data provided by the USEPA. Next, a nitrogen mass balance was developed using agricultural statistics, estimates of nutrient cycling in agricultural systems, and a geographic information system. Finally, multiple regression models were developed to estimate the relative contributions of the major input sources to the flux of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Gulf of Mexico.

Change in Pacific Northwest coastal ecosystems. Proceedings of the Pacific Northwest Coastal Ecosystems Regional Study Workshop, August 73-14, 1996, Troutdale, Oregon

Over the past one hundred and fifty years, the landscape and ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest coastal region, already subject to many variable natural forces, have been profoundly affected by human activities. In virtually every coastal watershed from the Strait of Juan de Fuca to Cape Mendocino, settlement, exploitation and development of resou?-ces have altered natural ecosystems. Vast, complex forests that once covered the region have been largely replaced by tree plantations or converted to non-forest conditions. Narrow coastal valleys, once filled with wetlands and braided streams that tempered storm runoff and provided salmon habitat, were drained, filled, or have otherwise been altered to create land for agriculture and other uses. Tideflats and saltmarshes in both large and small estuaries were filled for industrial, commercial, and other urban uses. Many estuaries, including that of the Columbia River, have been channeled, deepened, and jettied to provide for safe, reliable navigation. The prodigious rainfall in the region, once buffered by dense vegetation and complex river and stream habitat, now surges down sirfiplified stream channels laden with increased burdens of sediment and debris. Although these and many other changes have occurred incrementally over time and in widely separated areas, their sum can now be seen to have significantly affected the natural productivity of the region and, as a consequence, changed the economic structure of its human communities. This activity has taken place in a region already shaped by many interacting and dynamic natural forces. Large-scale ocean circulation patterns, which vary over long time periods, determine the strength and location of currents along the coast, and thus affect conditions in the nearshore ocean and estuaries throughout the region. Periodic seasonal differences in the weather and ocean act on shorter time scales; winters are typically wet with storms from the southwest while summers tend to be dry with winds from the northwest. Some phenomena are episodic, such as El Nifio events, which alter weather, marine habitats, and the distribution and survival of marine organisms. Other oceanic and atmospheric changes operate more slowly; over time scales of decades, centuries, and longer. Episodic geologic events also punctuate the region, such as volcanic eruptions that discharge widespread blankets of ash, frequent minor earthquakes, and major subduction zone earthquakes each 300 to 500 years that release accumulated tectonic strain, dropping stretches of ocean shoreline, inundating estuaries and coastal valleys, and triggering landslides that reshape stream profiles. While these many natural processes have altered, sometimes dramatically, the Pacific Northwest coastal region, these same processes have formed productive marine and coastal ecosystems, and many of the species in these systems have adapted to the variable environmental conditions of the region to ensure their long-term survival.

National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Coastal Ecosystem Assessment Program: a manual of methods

Environmental managers strive to preserve natural resources for future generations but have limited decision-making tools to define ecosystem health. Many programs offer relevant broad-scale, environmental policy information on regional ecosystem health. These programs provide evidence of environmental condition and change, but lack connections between local impacts and direct effects on living resources. To address this need, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Ocean Service (NOAA/NOS) Cooperative Oxford Laboratory (COL), in cooperation with federal, state, and academic partners, implemented an integrated biotic ecosystem assessment on a sub-watershed 14-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUD) scale in Chesapeake Bay. The goals of this effort were to 1) establish a suite of bioindicators that are sensitive to ecosystem change, 2) establish the effects of varying land-use patterns on water quality and the subsequent health of living resources, 3) communicate these findings to local decision-makers, and 4) evaluate the success of management decisions in these systems. To establish indicators, three sub-watersheds were chosen based on statistical analysis of land-use patterns to represent a gradient from developed to agricultural. The Magothy (developed), Corsica (agricultural), and Rhode (reference) Rivers were identified. A random stratified design was developed based on depth (2m contour) and river mile. Sampling approaches were coordinated within this structure to allow for robust system comparisons. The sampling approach was hierarchal, with metrics chosen to represent a range from community to cellular level responses across multiple organisms. This approach allowed for the identification of sub-lethal stressors, and assessment of their impact on the organism and subsequently the population. Fish, crabs, clams, oysters, benthic organisms, and bacteria were targeted, as each occupies a separate ecological niche and may respond dissimilarly to environmental stressors. Particular attention was focused on the use of pathobiology as a tool for assessing environmental condition. By integrating the biotic component with water quality, sediment indices, and land- use information, this holistic evaluation of ecosystem health will provide management entities with information needed to inform local decision-making processes and establish benchmarks for future restoration efforts.

1987 ecosystem view of management research in the Myakka River: review of Phase I and Phase II reports

This memorandum has four parts. The first is a review and partial synthesis of Phase 1 and Phase 2 Reports by Dr. Ernest Estevez of the Mote Marine Laboratory to the Board of County Commissioners of Sarasota County, Florida. The review and synthesis emphasizes identification of the most important aspects of the structure of the Myakka system in terms of forcing functions, biological components, and major energy flows. In this context, the dominant primary producers, dominant fish species and food habits, and major environmental variables were of articular interest. A major focus of the review and synthesis was on the river zonations provided in the report and based on salinity and various biological indicators. The second part of this memorandum is a review of a draft report by Mote Marine Laboratory on evaluation of potential water quality impacts on the Myakka River from proposed activities in the watershed. This Memorandum's third part is a review of resource-management related ecosystem models in the context of possible future models of the Myakka River Ecosystem. The final part of this memorandum is proposed future work as an extension of the initial reports.

Examination of the foraging habits of Pacific harbor seal (Phoca vitulina richardsi) to describe their use of the Umpqua River, Oregon, and their predation on salmonids

The increase in harbor seal (Phoca vitulina richardsi) abundance, concurrent with the decrease in salmonid (Oncorhynchus spp.) and other fish stocks, raises concerns about the potential negative impact of seals on fish populations. Although harbor seals are found in rivers and estuaries, their presence is not necessarily indicative of exclusive or predominant feeding in these systems. We examined the diet of harbor seals in the Umpqua River, Oregon, during 1997 and 1998 to indirectly assess whether or not they were feeding in the river. Fish otoliths and other skeletal structures were recovered from 651 scats and used to identify seal prey. The use of all diagnostic prey structures, rather than just otoliths, increased our estimates of the number of taxa, the minimum number of individuals and percent frequency of occurrence (%FO) of prey consumed. The %FO indicated that the most common prey were pleuronectids, Pacific hake (Merluccius productus), Pacific stag-horn sculpin (Leptocottus armatus), osmerids, and shiner surfperch (Cymatogaster aggregata). The majority (76%) of prey were fish that inhabit marine waters exclusively and fish found in marine and estuarine areas (e.g. anadromous spp.) which would indicate that seals forage predominantly at sea and use the estuary for resting and opportunistic feeding. Salmonid remains were encountered in 39 samples (6%); two samples contained identifiable otoliths, which were determined to be from chi-nook salmon (O. tshawytscha). Because of the complex salmonid composition in the Umpqua River, we used molecular genetic techniques on salmonid bones retrieved from scat to discern species that were rare from those that were abundant. Of the 37 scats with salmonid bones but no otoliths, bones were identified genetically as chinook or coho (O. kisutch) salmon, or steelhead trout (O. mykiss) in 90% of the samples.

Multidirectional movements of sportfish species between an estuarine no-take zone and surrounding waters of the Indian River Lagoon, Florida

We examined movement patterns of sportfish that were tagged in the northern Indian River Lagoon, Florida, between 1990 and 1999 to assess the degree of fish exchange between an estuarine no-take zone (NTZ) and surrounding waters. The tagged f ish were from seven species: red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus); black drum (Pogonias cromis); sheepshead (Archosargus probatocephalus); common snook (Centropomus undecimalis); spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus); bull shark (Carcharhinus leucas); and crevalle jack (Caranx hippos). A total of 403 tagged fish were recaptured during the study period, including 65 individuals that emigrated from the NTZ and 16 individuals that immigrated into the NTZ from surrounding waters of the lagoon. Migration distances between the original tagging location and the sites where emigrating fish were recaptured were from 0 to 150 km, and these migration distances appeared to be influenced by the proximity of the NTZ to spawning areas or other habitats that are important to specific life-history stages of individual species. Fish that immigrated into the NTZ moved distances ranging from approximately 10 to 75 km. Recapture rates for sportfish species that migrated across the NTZ boundary suggested that more individuals may move into the protected habitats than move out. These data demonstrated that although this estuarine no-take reserve can protect species from fishing, it may also serve to extract exploitable individuals from surrounding fisheries; therefore, if the no-take reserve does function to replenish surrounding fisheries, then increased egg production and larval export may be more important mechanisms of replenishment than the spillover of excess adults from the reserve into fishable areas.

The geographic basis for population structure in Fraser River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

We surveyed variation at 13 microsatellite loci in approximately 7400 chinook salmon sampled from 52 spawning sites in the Fraser River drainage during 1988–98 to examine the spatial and temporal basis of population structure in the watershed. Genetically discrete chinook salmon populations were associated with almost all spawning sites, although gene flow within some tributaries prevented or limited differentiation among spawning groups. The mean FST value over 52 samples and 13 loci surveyed was 0.039. Geographic structuring of populations was apparent: distinct groups were identified in the upper, middle, and lower Fraser River regions, and the north, south, and lower Thompson River regions. The geographically and temporally isolated Birkenhead River population of the lower Fraser region was sufficiently genetically distinctive to be treated as a separate region in a hierarchial analysis of gene diversity. Approximately 95% of genetic variation was contained within populations, and the remainder was accounted for by differentiation among regions (3.1%), among populations within regions (1.3%), and among years within populations (0.5%).Analysis of allelic diversity and private alleles did not support the suggestion that genetically distinctive populations of chinook salmon in the south Thompson were the result of postglacial hybridization of ocean-type and stream-type chinook in the Fraser River drainage. However, the relatively small amount of differentiation among Fraser River chinook salmon populations supports the suggestion that gene flow among genetically distinct groups of postglacial colonizing groups of chinook salmon has occurred, possibly prior to colonization of the Fraser River drainage.

Evaluation and application of microsatellites for population identification of Fraser River chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

Variation at 13 microsatellite loci was previously surveyed in approximately 7400 chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) sampled from 50 localities in the Fraser River drainage in southern British Columbia. Evaluation of the utility of the microsatellite variation for population-specific stock identification applications indicated that the accuracy of the stock composition estimates generally improved with an increasing number of loci used in the estimation procedure, but an increase in accuracy was generally marginal after eight loci were used. With 10–14 populations in a simulated fishery sample, the mean error in population-specific estimated stock composition with a 50-popula-tion baseline was <1.4%. Identification of individuals to specific populations was highest for lower Fraser River and lower and North Thompson River populations; an average of 70% of the individual fish were correctly assigned to specific populations. The average error of the estimated percentage for the seven populations present in a coded-wire tag sample was 2% per population. Estimation of stock composition in the lower river commercial net fishery prior to June is of key local fishery management interest. Chinook salmon from the Chilcotin River and Nicola River drainages were important contributors to the early commercial fishery in the lower river because they comprised approximately 50% of the samples from the net fishery prior to mid April.

Modeling the effect of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) on the population viability of Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Onchorhynchus tshawytscha)

We estimated the impact of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) predation on winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) with a Bayesian population dynamics model using striped bass and winter-run chinook salmon population abundance data. Winter-run chinook salmon extinction and recovery probabilities under different future striped bass abundance levels were estimated by simulating from the posterior distribution of model parameters. The model predicts that if the striped bass population declines to 512,000 adults as expected in the absence of stocking, winter-run chinook salmon will have about a 28% chance of quasi-extinction (defined as three consecutive spawning runs of fewer than 200 adults) within 50 years. If stocking stabilizes the striped bass population at 700,000 adults, the predicted quasi-extinction probability is 30%. A more ambitious stocking program that maintains a population of 3 million adult striped bass would increase the predicted quasi-extinction probability to 55%. Extinction probability, but not recovery probability, was fairly insensitive to assumptions about density dependence. We conclude that winter-run chinook salmon face a serious extinction risk without augmentation of the striped bass population and that substantial increases in striped bass abundance could significantly increase the threat to winter-run chi-nook salmon if not mitigated by increasing winter chinook salmon survival in some other way.