On the performance of small-area estimators: Fixed vs. random area parameters

Most methods for small-area estimation are based on composite estimators derived from design- or model-based methods. A composite estimator is a linear combination of a direct and an indirect estimator with weights that usually depend on unknown parameters which need to be estimated. Although model-based small-area estimators are usually based on random-effects models, the assumption of fixed effects is at face value more appropriate.Model-based estimators are justified by the assumption of random (interchangeable) area effects; in practice, however, areas are not interchangeable. In the present paper we empirically assess the quality of several small-area estimators in the setting in which the area effects are treated as fixed. We consider two settings: one that draws samples from a theoretical population, and another that draws samples from an empirical population of a labor force register maintained by the National Institute of Social Security (NISS) of Catalonia. We distinguish two types of composite estimators: a) those that use weights that involve area specific estimates of bias and variance; and, b) those that use weights that involve a common variance and a common squared bias estimate for all the areas. We assess their precision and discuss alternatives to optimizing composite estimation in applications.

Diversity of Pentatomoidea (Hemiptera) in riparian forests of southern Brazil: taller forests, more bugs

Riparian forests are important features of any ecosystem, especially on grassland and savannah vegetation types. However, riparian forests in southernmost Brazil have received much less attention than elsewhere. This is the first quantitative study of pentatomoid (Hemiptera) diversity in the Pampa biome, surveying riparian forests of brooks and rivers in the environs of the municipality of Bagé, Rio Grande do Sul state, southern Brazil. The aim was two-fold: taxonomic characterization of the fauna and a primary ecological study of bug diversity. Sweeping net and beating tray were used to sample trees and shrubs on the border of sampling sites; sampling was carried out during three consecutive days, from March 28th to 30th 2006. Overall 154 individuals of 32 species of Pentatomoidea were captured, almost all species are new records for the local fauna. Taller forest canopy sites had higher abundance overall and higher species richness than shorter forest canopy sites. Of the 32 species, 11 were singletons and four were doubletons. There were no differences for pentatomoid species composition between the two environments differing in vegetation structure. Association to the Pampa biome of the most abundant species found are discussed. Although based on a rapid assessment protocol of faunal inventories, our results add important bioecological information to the pentatomoid fauna of the Pampa biome, especially associated to riparian forests.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of Alticini (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae) in a fragment of Araucaria Forest in the state of Parana, Brazil

Alticini fauna from five areas, two with different types of management (Borda and Araucaria) and three with different levels of conservation (Fase 1, Fase 2 and Fase 3), in the Araucaria Forest of the Parana was captured with malaise traps. The material was collected weekly, from September/1999 to August/2001, in the Parque Estadual of Vila Velha, Ponta Grossa. 1,891 individuals of 106 Alticini species were collected with only seven species common to all areas. Despite the proximity between sampling areas, the number of species shared between pairs of areas was low, not reaching 40%, with the Araucaria and Fase 1 areas being the most similar. The community structure of the areas Fase 1 and Fase 2 were most related. Fase 1, in initial stage of succession, showed the largert variation in the abundance and richness from one year to another.

Are gall midge species (Diptera, Cecidomyiidae) host-plant specialists?

Despite the speciose fauna of gall-inducing insects in the Neotropical region, little is known about their taxonomy. On the other hand, gall morphotypes associated with host species have been extensively used as a surrogate of the inducer species worldwide. This study reviewed the described gall midges and their galls to test the generalization on the use of gall morphotypes as surrogates of gall midge species in the Brazilian fauna. We compiled taxonomic and biological data for 196 gall midge species recorded on 128 host plant species. Ninety two percent of those species were monophagous, inducing galls on a single host plant species, whereas only 5.6% species were oligophagous, inducing galls on more than one congeneric host plant species. Only four species induced galls on more than one host plant genus. We conclude that gall morphotypes associated with information on the host plant species and attacked organs are reliable surrogates of the gall-inducing species.

Gall inducing arthropods from a seasonally dry tropical forest in Serra do Cipó, Brazil

Highly diverse forms of galling arthropods can be identified in much of southeastern Brazil's vegetation. Three fragments of a Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest (SDTF) located in the southern range of the Espinhaço Mountains were selected for study in the first survey of galling organisms in such tropical vegetation. Investigators found 92 distinct gall morphotypes on several organs of 51 host plant species of 19 families. Cecidomyiidae (Diptera) was the most prolific gall-inducing species, responsible for the largest proportion of galls (77%) observed. Leaves were the most frequently galled plant organ (63%), while the most common gall morphotype was of a spherical shape (30%). The two plant species, Baccharis dracunculifolia (Asteraceae) and Celtis brasiliensis (Cannabaceae), presented the highest number of gall morphtypes, displaying an average of 5 gall morphotypes each. This is the first study of gall-inducing arthropods and their host plant species ever undertaken in a Brazilian SDTF ecosystem. Given the intense human pressure on SDTFs, the high richness of galling arthropods, and implied floral host diversity found in this study indicates the need for an increased effort to catalogue the corresponding flora and fauna, observe their intricate associations and further understand the implications of such rich diversity in these stressed and vulnerable ecosystems.

Attractivity of omnivore, carnivore and herbivore mammalian dung to Scarabaeinae (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) in a tropical Atlantic rainforest remnant

In this study, performed in a remnant of Brazilian Atlantic Forest, three types of dung from animals with distinct alimentary habits were utilized, in order to verify possible differences of attractivity of these dungs to the Scarabaeinae and the influence of seasonality in the attractivity. Three habitats were sampled: edge, clearing and forest core, each with 40 pitfall traps. A total of 2,137 beetles were collected from August 2005 to July 2006. Canthidium sp. 1 (43%) and Dichotomius sericeus (41%) were the most abundant species. From the total number of beetles collected, 80.5% were attracted to human dung, 11% to jaguar dung, 7.8% to waterbuck dung and 0.7% to the control. The species Canthidium sp.1, Canthidium sp. 2, Ateuchus sp., Canthon nigripenne, Canthonella sp. and D. sericeus came to all three bait types. Eight species were found in the baits with human dung, where Canthidium sp.1 (49%) and D. sericeus (39%) were the most common. A significant difference in attractiveness of the different baits was observed; the highest abundance found in traps baited with human dung (F = 36.59; g.l. = 3; p < 0.0001). A significant difference in richness was observed between rainy and dry seasons (F = 12.29; g.l. = 1; p < 0.001), the highest richness found in the dry season.

The poor stay poor: Non-convergence across countries and regions

We study the issue of income convergence across countries and regions witha Bayesian estimator which allows us to use information in an efficient andflexible way. We argue that the very slow convergence rates to a commonlevel of per-capita income found, e.g., by Barro and Xavier Sala-i-Martin,is due to a 'fixed effect bias' that their cross-sectional analysisintroduces in the results. Our approach permits the estimation of differentconvergence rates to different steady states for each cross sectional unit.When this diversity is allowed, we find that convergence of each unit to(its own) steady state income level is much faster than previously estimatedbut that cross sectional differences persist: inequalities will only bereduced by a small amount by the passage of time. The cross countrydistribution of the steady state is largely explained by the cross countrydistribution of initial conditions.

Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

The goal of this paper is to estimate time-varying covariance matrices.Since the covariance matrix of financial returns is known to changethrough time and is an essential ingredient in risk measurement, portfolioselection, and tests of asset pricing models, this is a very importantproblem in practice. Our model of choice is the Diagonal-Vech version ofthe Multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. The problem is that the estimation ofthe general Diagonal-Vech model model is numerically infeasible indimensions higher than 5. The common approach is to estimate more restrictive models which are tractable but may not conform to the data. Our contributionis to propose an alternative estimation method that is numerically feasible,produces positive semi-definite conditional covariance matrices, and doesnot impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empiricalapplication in the context of international stock markets, comparing thenew estimator to a number of existing ones.

Small-area estimation with spatial similarity

A class of composite estimators of small area quantities that exploit spatial (distancerelated)similarity is derived. It is based on a distribution-free model for the areas, but theestimators are aimed to have optimal design-based properties. Composition is applied alsoto estimate some of the global parameters on which the small area estimators depend.It is shown that the commonly adopted assumption of random effects is not necessaryfor exploiting the similarity of the districts (borrowing strength across the districts). Themethods are applied in the estimation of the mean household sizes and the proportions ofsingle-member households in the counties (comarcas) of Catalonia. The simplest version ofthe estimators is more efficient than the established alternatives, even though the extentof spatial similarity is quite modest.

Ant fauna (Hymenoptera, Formicidae) associated to arboreal nests of Nasutitermes spp: (Isoptera, Termitidae) in a cacao plantation in southeastern Bahia, Brazil

Ants are among the most common arthropods that colonize termite nests. The aim of this study was to identify the ant fauna associated to termite nests found in a cacao plantation in the county of Ilhéus, Bahia, Brazil, with emphasis on the fauna that uses the nests as foraging and/or nesting environment. For this purpose, 34 active, decadent and abandoned nests of Nasutitermes corniger, N. ephratae and Nasutitermes sp., with different volumes and degrees of activity, were dissected. A total of 54 ant species, belonging to 23 genera and five subfamilies, was found in the constructions. The active, decadent and abandoned termite nests presented, respectively, six, eight and 48 ant species. Crematogaster acuta and Ectatomma tuberculatum were the most frequent species in the active and decadent nests, respectively, while the most frequent species in the abandoned nests were Solenopsis pollux, Thaumatomyrmex contumax and Thaumatomyrmex sp. Twenty-six ant species had true colonies within the termitaria. The Formicidae species richness in the nests was inversely related to the degree of termite activity in the nests. The occurrence of living, decadent or abandoned termitaria of Nasutitermes spp. in cacao plantations foments the heterogeneity of habitats available in the plantations and favors the maintenance of high diversity of organisms that use obligatory or opportunistically this substrate.

Thrips species (Thysanoptera, Terebrantia) inhabiting irrigated rice and surrounding habitats in Cachoeirinha, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

In Brazil, almost nothing is known about the thrips fauna associated with rice crops. This is especially true for Rio Grande do Sul State (RS), the major rice producer in Brazil, where no systematic surveys have been conducted. Thus, this work records preliminarily the species of suborder Terebrantia inhabitanting irrigated rice (RC) and three nearby habitats: the area selected for rice, before cultivation (BR), grassland (GR) and forest border (FB) in Cachoeirinha, RS (50º58'21"W; 29º55'30"S). Eight field trips were carried out between October/2004 and February/2005 to Estação Experimental do Arroz in Cachoeirinha. Thrips specimens were collected with sweeping net and transported to laboratory for identification. A total of 623 adults terebrantians were recorded, belonging to two families and 18 species. Frankliniella rodeos (55.5%), Neohydatothrips cf. paraensis (30.3%) and Frankliniella schultzei (5.6%), were the most abundant, comprising more than 90% of the individuals. FB showed the highest species richness (S=15), followed by GR (S=10), RC (S=9) and BR (S=6). FB presented a low number of individuals (14.0%), contrasting with GR (44.8%) and BR (36.7%). In general, thrips abundance in RC was low at EEA (4.5%), and few species seems to effectively use rice as a host-plant. Two species previously considered of economic importance were found, F. rodeos and F. schultzei, the latter a new record for rice in Brazil. Five species are new records to RS.

Mosquitoes (Diptera, Culicidae) inhabiting foliar tanks of Guzmania brasiliensis Ule (Bromeliaceae) in central Amazonia, Brazil

Mosquitoes in the family Culicidae develop their immature forms in different environments depending on various circumstances. This study represents the first contribution to the ecological knowledge of culicids living in the bromeliad G. brasiliensis. The objectives of the study were to compare the Culicidae fauna of bromeliads in two seasonal periods, analyzing their abundance, richness and the influence of pH, conductivity and water volume, on the populations. Sampling was done at Reserva Adolpho Ducke, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil between 2003 and 2005. Six samplings were done in the rainy season and six in the dry season. On each sampling day, six terrestrial and six epiphytic bromeliads, totaling 144 sampling units, were retrieved. A total of 444 immature mosquitoes were collected, distributed in the following species: Culex (Microculex) stonei Lane & Whitman, Culex (Microculex) chryselatus Dyar & Knab, Culex (Microculex) sp., Wyeomyia (Hystatomyia) autocratica Dyar & Knab and Wyeomyia (Hystatomyia) splendida Bonne-Wepster & Bonne. The relationship between abundance of Culicidae and sampling period was not significant, although abundance was higher in the dry period. There were significant correlations between water volume and the abundance (p = 0.003) and richness (p = 0.001) of culicids. The pH was positively related to the occurrence of the species Wy. autocratica (p= 0.010) and Wy. splendida (p= 0.006), demonstrating the influence of this factor in the structuring of bromeliad-inhabiting communities.

Butterflies (Lepidoptera, Papilionoidea and Hesperioidea) of the "Baixada Santista" region, coastal São Paulo, southeastern Brazil

Butterflies (Lepidoptera, Papilionoidea and Hesperioidea) of the "Baixada Santista" region, coastal São Paulo, southeastern Brazil. A list with 538 species of butterflies recorded in the Baixada Santista, São Paulo ( SE Brazil) is presented. Standard sampling protocols (i.e. with entomological nets) were followed. Baited traps were installed for fruit feeding species. Data from the literature and entomological collections were also considered in the total estimated species richness. The species richness recorded in the Baixada Santista region represents about 16% of the Brazilian butterfly fauna, and 34% of the known butterfly fauna for the state of São Paulo. The present list contains an appreciably higher number of species in comparison to other lists from similar biomes farther south, such as Blumenau in Santa Catarina, and Maquiné in Rio Grande do Sul.

Diversity of Odonata (Insecta) in lotic systems from Serra da Bodoquena, Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil

Diversity of Odonata (Insecta) in lotic systems from Serra da Bodoquena, Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil. A systematic survey was carried out in four lotic systems from Serra da Bodoquena, the largest natural forests of the State, from August 2007 to November 2008. 548 specimens belonging to 33 species, distributed in 5 families were sampled. Libellulidae was dominant, with 13 species, followed by Gomphidae, Coenagrionidae, Protoneuridae and Calopterygidae.

Inference with the lognormal distribution

Several estimators of the expectation, median and mode of the lognormal distribution are derived. They aim to be approximately unbiased, efficient, or have a minimax property in the class of estimators we introduce. The small-sample properties of these estimators are assessed by simulations and, when possible, analytically. Some of these estimators of the expectation are far more efficient than the maximum likelihood or the minimum-variance unbiased estimator, even for substantial samplesizes.