Proceedings of the Ninth Annual Conference of the British Association for Biological Anthropology and Osteoarchaeology, Department of Archaeology, University of Reading

The Proceedings of the Ninth Annual Conference of the British Association for Biological Anthropology and Osteoarchaeology (BABAO) held at the University of Reading in 2007. Contents: 1) A life course perspective of growing up in medieval London: evidence of sub-adult health from St Mary Spital (London) (Rebecca Redfern and Don Walker); 2) Preservation of non-adult long bones from an almshouse cemetery in the United States dating to the late nineteenth to the early twentieth centuries (Colleen Milligan, Jessica Zotcavage and Norman Sullivan); 3) Childhood oral health: dental palaeopathology of Kellis 2, Dakhleh, Egypt. A preliminary investigation (Stephanie Shukrum and JE Molto); 4) Skeletal manifestation of non-adult scurvy from early medieval Northumbria: the Black Gate cemetery, Newcastle-upon-Tyne (Diana Mahoney-Swales and Pia Nystrom); 5) Infantile cortical hyperostosis: cases, causes and contradictions (Mary Lewis and Rebecca Gowland); 6) Biological Anthropology Tuberculosis of the hip in the Victorian Britain (Benjamin Clarke and Piers Mitchell); 7) The re-analysis of Iron Age human skeletal material from Winnall Down (Justine Tracey); 8) Can we estimate post-mortem interval from an individual body part? A field study using sus scrofa (Branka Franicevec and Robert Pastor); 9) The expression of asymmetry in hand bones from the medieval cemetery at Écija, Spain (Lisa Cashmore and Sonia Zakrezewski); 10) Returning remains: a curator’s view (Quinton Carroll); 11) Authority and decision making over British human remains: issues and challenges (Piotr Bienkowski and Malcolm Chapman); 12) Ethical dimensions of reburial, retention and repatriation of archaeological human remains: a British perspective (Simon Mays and Martin Smith); 13) The problem of provenace: inaccuracies, changes and misconceptions (Margaret Clegg); 14) Native American human remains in UK collections: implications of NAGPRA to consultation, repatriation, and policy development (Myra J Giesen); 15) Repatriation – a view from the receiving end: New Zealand (Nancy Tayles).

"Mad dogs and transnational migrants?" Bajan-Brit second-generation migrants and accusations of madness

Second-generation British-Barbadians ("Bajan-Brits'') returning to the land of their parents are frequently accused by indigenous Barbadian nationals of being mad. Narratives of the migrants reflect four major sets of factors: (1) madness as perceived behavioral and cultural differences; (2) explanations that relate to the historical-clinical circumstances surrounding the incidence of mental ill health among first-generation West Indian migrants to the United Kingdom; (3) madness as a pathology of alienation that is attendant on living in Barbados; and (4) madness as "othering,'' "outing,'' and "fixity.'' British second-generation "returning nationals'' to the Caribbean, living as they do in the plural world of the land of their parents' birth, after having been raised in the colonial "Mother Country,'' exhibit hybridity and in-betweenness. Accusations of madness serve to fix the position of these young migrants outside the mainstream of indigenous Barbadian society. Our analysis invokes recent postcolonial writings dealing with "strange encounters'' to theorize that the madness accusation serves to "other'' the young Bajan-Brit migrants in a strongly postcolonial context.

Errors associated with the preparation of aseptic products in UK hospital pharmacies: lessons from the national aseptic error reporting scheme

Background Pharmacy aseptic units prepare and supply injectables to minimise risks. The UK National Aseptic Error Reporting Scheme has been collecting data on pharmacy compounding errors, including near-misses, since 2003. Objectives The cumulative reports from January 2004 to December 2007, inclusive, were analysed. Methods The different variables of product types, error types, staff making and detecting errors, stage errors detected, perceived contributory factors, and potential or actual outcomes were presented by cross-tabulation of data. Results A total of 4691 reports were submitted against an estimated 958 532 items made, returning 0.49% as the overall error rate. Most of the errors were detected before reaching patients, with only 24 detected during or after administration. The highest number of reports related to adult cytotoxic preparations (40%) and the most frequently recorded error was a labelling error (34.2%). Errors were mostly detected at first check in assembly area (46.6%). Individual staff error contributed most (78.1%) to overall errors, while errors with paediatric parenteral nutrition appeared to be blamed on low staff levels more than other products were. The majority of errors (68.6%) had no potential patient outcomes attached, while it appeared that paediatric cytotoxic products and paediatric parenteral nutrition were associated with greater levels of perceived patient harm. Conclusions The majority of reports were related to near-misses, and this study highlights scope for examining current arrangements for checking and releasing products, certainly for paediatric cytotoxic and paediatric parenteral nutrition preparations within aseptic units, but in the context of resource and capacity constraints.

"Racism in a Melting Pot...?" Trinidadian mid-life transnational migrants' views on race and colour-class on return to their homes of descent

This paper deals with second-generation, one-and-a-half generation and ‘‘prolonged sojourner” Trinidadian transnational migrants, who have decided to ‘return’ to the birthplace of their parents. Based on 40 in-depth interviews, the paper considers both the positive and critical things that these youthful transnational migrants report about returning to, and living in, this multi-ethnic plural society and the salience of racial and colour-class stratification as part of their return migration experiences. Our qualitative analysis is based on the narratives provided by these youthful returnees, as relayed ‘‘in their own words”, presenting critical reflections on racism, racial identities and experiences as transnational Trinidadians. It is clear that it is contexts such as contemporary working environments, family and community that act as the reference points for the adaptation ‘‘back home” of this strongly middle-class cohort. We accordingly encounter a diverse, sometimes contesting set of racial issues that emerge as salient concerns for these returnees. The consensus is that matters racial remain as formidable legacies in the hierarchical stratification of Trinidadian society for a sizeable number. Many of our respondents reported the positive aspects of racial affirmation on return. But for another sub-set, the fact that multi-ethnic and multi-cultural mixing are proudly embraced in Trinidad meant that it was felt that return experiences were not overly hindered, or blighted by obstacles of race and colour-class. For these returnees, Trinidad and Tobago is seen as representing a 21st century ‘‘Melting Pot”. But for others the continued existence of racial divisions within society – between ethnic groups and among those of different skin shades – was lamented. In the views of these respondents, too much racial power is still ascribed to ‘near-whiteness’. But for the most part, the returnees felt that where race played a part in their new lives, this generally served to advantage them. However, although the situation in Trinidad appears to have been moderated by assumptions that it remains a racial ‘Melting Pot’, the analysis strongly suggests that the colour-class system of stratification is still playing an essential role, along with racial stereotyping in society at large.

Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models

Projections of stratospheric ozone from a suite of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have been analyzed. In addition to a reference simulation where anthropogenic halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) vary with time, sensitivity simulations with either ODS or GHG concentrations fixed at 1960 levels were performed to disaggregate the drivers of projected ozone changes. These simulations were also used to assess the two distinct milestones of ozone returning to historical values (ozone return dates) and ozone no longer being influenced by ODSs (full ozone recovery). The date of ozone returning to historical values does not indicate complete recovery from ODSs in most cases, because GHG-induced changes accelerate or decelerate ozone changes in many regions. In the upper stratosphere where CO2-induced stratospheric cooling increases ozone, full ozone recovery is projected to not likely have occurred by 2100 even though ozone returns to its 1980 or even 1960 levels well before (~2025 and 2040, respectively). In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases continuously from 1960 to 2100 due to projected increases in tropical upwelling, while by around 2040 it is already very likely that full recovery from the effects of ODSs has occurred, although ODS concentrations are still elevated by this date. In the midlatitude lower stratosphere the evolution differs from that in the tropics, and rather than a steady decrease in ozone, first a decrease in ozone is simulated from 1960 to 2000, which is then followed by a steady increase through the 21st century. Ozone in the midlatitude lower stratosphere returns to 1980 levels by ~2045 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and by ~2055 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and full ozone recovery is likely reached by 2100 in both hemispheres. Overall, in all regions except the tropical lower stratosphere, full ozone recovery from ODSs occurs significantly later than the return of total column ozone to its 1980 level. The latest return of total column ozone is projected to occur over Antarctica (~2045–2060) whereas it is not likely that full ozone recovery is reached by the end of the 21st century in this region. Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels well before polar stratospheric halogen loading does so (~2025–2030 for total column ozone, cf. 2050–2070 for Cly+60×Bry) and it is likely that full recovery of total column ozone from the effects of ODSs has occurred by ~2035. In contrast to the Antarctic, by 2100 Arctic total column ozone is projected to be above 1960 levels, but not in the fixed GHG simulation, indicating that climate change plays a significant role.

Adventitious root formation in anacardium occidentale L. in response to phytohormones and removal of roots

Despite advances in tissue culture techniques, propagation by leafy, softwood cuttings is the preferred, practical system for vegetative reproduction of many tree and shrub species. Species are frequently defined as 'difficult'- or 'easy-to-root' when propagated by conventional cuttings. Speed of rooting is often linked with ease of propagation, and slow-to-root species may be 'difficult' precisely because tissues deteriorate prior to the formation of adventitious roots. Even when roots form, limited development of these may impair the establishment of a cutting. In this study we used softwood cuttings of cashew (Anacardium occidentale), a species considered as 'difficult-to-root'. We aimed to test the hypothesis that speed, and extent of early rooting, is critical in determining success with this species; and that the potential to form adventitious roots will decrease with time in the propagation environment. Using two genotypes, initial rooting rates were examined in the presence or absence of exogenous auxin. In cuttings that formed adventitious roots, either entire roots or root tips were removed, to determine if further root formation/development was feasible. To investigate if subsequent root responses were linked to phytohormone action, a number of cuttings were also treated with either exogenous auxin (indole-3-butyric acid-IBA) or cytokinin (zeatin). Despite the reputation of Anacardium as being 'difficult-to-root', we found high rooting rates in two genotypes (AC 10 and CCP 1001). Removing adventitious roots from cuttings and returning them to the propagation environment, resulted in subsequent re-rooting. Indeed, individual cuttings could develop new adventitious roots on four to five separate occasions over a 9 week period. Data showed that rooting potential increased, not decreased with time in the propagation environment and that cutting viability was unaffected. Root expression was faster (8-15 days) after the removal of previous roots compared to when the cuttings were first stuck (21 days). Exposing cuttings to IBA at the time of preparation, improved initial rooting in AC 10, but not in CCP 1001. Application of IBA once roots had formed had little effect on subsequent development, but zeatin reduced root length and promoted root number and dry matter accumulation. These results challenge our hypothesis, and indicate that rooting potential remains high in Anacardium. The precise mechanisms that regulate the number of adventitious roots expressed, remain to be determined. Nevertheless, results indicate that rooting potential can be high in 'difficult-to-root' species, and suggest that providing supportive environments is the key to expressing this potential. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Young's modulus varies with differential orientation of keratin in feathers

Feathers are composed of a structure that, whilst being very light, is able to withstand the large aerodynamic forces exerted upon them during flight. To explore the contribution of molecular orientation to feather keratin mechanical properties, we have examined the nanoscopic organisation of the keratin molecules by X-ray diffraction techniques and have confirmed a link between this and the Young's modulus of the feather rachis. Our results indicate that along the rachis length, from calamus to tip, the keratin molecules become more aligned than at the calamus before returning to a state of higher mis-orientation towards the tip of the rachis. We have also confirmed the general trend of increasing Young's modulus with distance along the rachis. Furthermore, we report a distinct difference in the patterns of orientation of beta-keratin in the feathers of flying and flightless birds. The trend for increased modulus along the feathers of volant birds is absent in the flightless ostrich.

Cost-benefit evaluation of routine influenza immunisation in people 65-74 years of age

OBJECTIVES: To determine the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in people aged 65-74 years in the absence of co-morbidity. DESIGN: Primary research: randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Primary care. PARTICIPANTS: People without risk factors for influenza or contraindications to vaccination were identified from 20 general practitioner (GP) practices in Liverpool in September 1999 and invited to participate in the study. There were 5875/9727 (60.4%) people aged 65-74 years identified as potentially eligible and, of these, 729 (12%) were randomised. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomised to receive either influenza vaccine or placebo (ratio 3:1), with all individuals receiving pneumococcal vaccine unless administered in the previous 10 years. Of the 729 people randomised, 552 received vaccine and 177 received placebo; 726 individuals were administered pneumococcal vaccine. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND METHODOLOGY OF ECONOMIC EVALUATION: GP attendance with influenza-like illness (ILI) or pneumonia (primary outcome measure); or any respiratory symptoms; hospitalisation with a respiratory illness; death; participant self-reported ILI; quality of life (QoL) measures at 2, 4 and 6 months post-study vaccination; adverse reactions 3 days after vaccination. A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken to identify the incremental cost associated with the avoidance of episodes of influenza in the vaccination population and an impact model was used to extrapolate the cost-effectiveness results obtained from the trial to assess their generalisability throughout the NHS. RESULTS: In England and Wales, weekly consultations for influenza and ILI remained at baseline levels (less than 50 per 100,000 population) until week 50/1999 and then increased rapidly, peaking during week 2/2000 with a rate of 231/100,000. This rate fell within the range of 'higher than expected seasonal activity' of 200-400/100,000. Rates then quickly declined, returning to baseline levels by week 5/2000. The predominant circulating strain during this period was influenza A (H3N2). Five (0.9%) people in the vaccine group were diagnosed by their GP with an ILI compared to two (1.1%) in the placebo group [relative risk (RR), 0.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.16 to 4.1]. No participants were diagnosed with pneumonia by their GP and there were no hospitalisations for respiratory illness in either group. Significantly fewer vaccinated individuals self-reported a single ILI (4.6% vs 8.9%, RR, 0.51; 95% CI for RR, 0.28 to 0.96). There was no significant difference in any of the QoL measurements over time between the two groups. Reported systemic side-effects showed no significant differences between groups. Local side-effects occurred with a significantly increased incidence in the vaccine group (11.3% vs 5.1%, p = 0.02). Each GP consultation avoided by vaccination was estimated from trial data to generate a net NHS cost of 174 pounds. CONCLUSIONS: No difference was seen between groups for the primary outcome measure, although the trial was underpowered to demonstrate a true difference. Vaccination had no significant effect on any of the QoL measures used, although vaccinated individuals were less likely to self-report ILI. The analysis did not suggest that influenza vaccination in healthy people aged 65-74 years would lead to lower NHS costs. Future research should look at ways to maximise vaccine uptake in people at greatest risk from influenza and also the level of vaccine protection afforded to people from different age and socio-economic populations.

Expression and regulation of 80K/MARCKS, a major substrate of protein kinase C, in the developing rat heart

Objective: Protein kinase C (PKC) plays a pivotal role in modulating the growth and differentiation of many cell types including the cardiac myocyte. However, little is known about molecules that act immediately downstream of PKC in the heart. In this study we have investigated the expression of 80K/MARCKS, a major PKC substrate, in whole ventricles and in cardiac myocytes from developing rat hearts. Methods: Poly A+ RNA was prepared from neonatal (2-day) and adult (42-day) cardiac myocytes and whole ventricular tissue and mRNA expression determined by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) using primers designed to identify a 420 bp fragment in the 80K/MARCKS gene. Protein extracts were prepared from either 2-day and 42-day cardiac myocytes or from whole ventricular tissue at 2, 5–11, 14, 17, 21, 28 and 42 days of age. Protein expression was determined by immunoblotting with an 80K/MARCKS antipeptide antibody and PKC activity was determined by measuring the amount of γ32P-ATP transferred to a specific peptide substrate. Results: RT-PCR analysis of 80K/MARCKS mRNA in neonatal (2-day) and adult (42-day) cardiac myocytes showed the expression of this gene in both cell types. Immunoblotting revealed maximum 80K/MARCKS protein expression in whole ventricular tissue at 5 days (a 75% increase above values at 2 days), followed by a transient decrease in expression during the 6–8-day period (61% of the protein expressed at 2 days for 8-day tissue) with levels returning to 5 day levels by 11 days of age. 80K/MARCKS protein was present in cardiac myocytes at 2 days of age whereas it was not detectable in adult cells. In addition, PKC activity levels increased to 160% of levels present at 2 days in 8-day-old ventricles with PKC activity levels returning to 5-day levels by 9 days of age. This was then followed by a steady decline in both 80K/MARCKS protein expression and PKC activity through to adulthood. Conclusions: Expression of the PKC substrate, 80K/MARCKS, in cardiac myocytes changes significantly during development and the transient loss of immunoreactive protein during the 6–8-day developmental period may reflect 80K/MARCKS phosphorylation and subsequent down-regulation as a result of the concomitant up-regulation of PKC activity at this time.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

The effect of the daily intake of inulin on fasting lipid, insulin and glucose concentrations in middle-aged men and women

The present study was carried out to examine the effect of the daily intake of 10 g inulin on fasting blood lipid, glucose and insulin levels in healthy middle-aged men and women with moderately raised total plasma cholesterol (TC) and triacylglycerol (TAG) levels. This study was a doubleblind randomized placebo-controlled parallel study in which fifty-four middle-aged subjects received either inulin or placebo for a period of 8 weeks. Fasting blood samples were collected before the supplementation period (baseline samples 1 and 2, separated by 1 week) and at weeks 4 and 8, with a follow-up at week 12. Compared with baseline values, insulin concentrations were significantly lower at 4 weeks (P,0×01) in the inulin group. There was a trend for TAG values, compared with baseline, to be lower in the inulin group at 8 weeks (P,0×08) returning to baseline concentrations at week 12. On comparison of the inulin and placebo groups, the fasting TAG responses over the 8-week test period were shown to be significantly different (P,0×05, repeated measures ANOVA), which was largely due to lower plasma TAG levels in the inulin group at week 8. The percentage change in TAG levels in the inulin group during the 8-week study was shown to correlate with the initial TAG level of the subjects (rs -0×499, P = 0×004). We therefore conclude that the daily addition of 10 g inulin to the diet significantly reduced fasting insulin concentrations during the 8-week test period and resulted in lower plasma TAG levels, particularly in subjects in whom fasting TAG levels were greater than 1×5 mmol/l. These data support findings from animal studies that fructans influence the formation and/or degradation of TAG-rich lipoprotein particles, and the insulin data are also consistent with recent studies showing attenuation of insulin levels in fructan-treated rats.

Modern lovers

Modern Lovers was a survey show of contemporary art practices in dialogue with modernism, bringing together established and emerging artists based in London and international artists from Berlin, Jerusalem and Zagreb. The show features video, film, installation, sculpture, music and performance work that addresses the legacy of the avant garde and the survival of its aesthetics within contemporary culture. In 1976, as punk rock was busy smashing the cultural rubble left behind by the second world war and rejecting the consumer society that had emerged from the ruins, one band bravely announced that it wanted no part in this destruction. Jonathan Richman's Modern Lovers sang about how they still loved the old world. Neither parents nor girlfriends could understand, but the decaying inner city with its false promises of progress still held a fascination for Richman, who claimed he wanted to keep his place in this arcane landscape. Punk's assault on culture was the logical conclusion of modernism's linear narrative of art as a force of innovation that must reject preceding artistic movements to establish new ones. Echoing the negations of Dada, it set out to put an end to this narrative, an end to culture. It is partly because of this inherently destructive and totalising side of Modernism that it has come under harsh critique in the post modern era. Nevertheless, we are still caught up in the same dialectic of progress, revolution and destruction. Post modernism has failed to unseat our desire for the revolutionary moment, even as it has been co-opted to the degree of meaninglessness by the discourses of marketing and Capitalism. But, like Jonathan Richman, the artists in the exhibition "Modern Lovers" keep returning to modernism for something else. Instead of taking it at its word when it proffers revolution, they turn to it in search of reform. Still loving the old world and desiring a dialogue with the past, perhaps as an antidote to the eternal present of Capitalism, they are willing to engage with its aesthetics and ideas on equal ground. Leaving behind the ironic deconstructions of post modernism, they find perspectives worth salvaging and juxtapose them with contemporary visual productions. Trading in the grand narratives of modernity for a more personal approach, they don't seek the purity of form that drove the avant garde movements that inspire them but rather revel in adulteration, dilution and contamination of the past by the present". A live performance by sala-manca was sponsored by the British Council and took place May 26th, 19:00. MODERN LOVERS was accompanied by a catalogue (14.80 cm x 14.80 cm) including essays by Avi Pitchon, the sala-manca group and the curators. A discussion panel about the exhibition themes, as well as the catalogue launch,took place at Goldsmiths College's cinema on the 27th of May at 14:00, chaired by Dr. Suhail Malik (Senior Lecturer & Course Leader Postgraduate Fine Art Critical Studies at Goldsmiths College) and with the participation of Tom Morton (curator, Cubitt Gallery, and regular contributor to Frieze magazine), sala-manca (artist group), Dr. Amanda Beech (artist, curator and senior lecturer at the Wimbledon School of Art), Matthew Poole (course director of MA Gallery Studies, dept. of Art History and Theory at the University of Essex).

A spatial–temporal analysis of the impact of access restrictions on forest landscapes and household welfare in Tanzania

This paper explores the impact of the re-introduction of access restrictions to forests in Tanzania, through participatory forest management (PFM), that have excluded villagers from forests to which they have traditionally, albeit illegally, had access to collect non-timber forest products (NTFPs). Motivated by our fieldwork, and using a spatial–temporal model, we focus on the paths of forest degradation and regeneration and villagers' utility before and after an access restriction is introduced. Our paper illustrates a number of key points for policy makers. First, the benefits of forest conservation tend to be greatest in the first few periods after an access restriction is introduced, after which the overall forest quality often declines. Second, villagers may displace their NTFP collection into more distant forests that may have been completely protected by distance alone before access to a closer forest was restricted. Third, permitting villagers to collect limited amounts of NTFPs for a fee, or alternatively fining villagers caught collecting illegally from the protected forest, and returning the fee or fine revenue to the villagers, can improve both forest quality and villagers' livelihoods.

A variational method to retrieve the extinction profile in liquid clouds using multiple field-of-view lidar

Liquid clouds play a profound role in the global radiation budget but it is difficult to remotely retrieve their vertical profile. Ordinary narrow field-of-view (FOV) lidars receive a strong return from such clouds but the information is limited to the first few optical depths. Wideangle multiple-FOV lidars can isolate radiation scattered multiple times before returning to the instrument, often penetrating much deeper into the cloud than the singly-scattered signal. These returns potentially contain information on the vertical profile of extinction coefficient, but are challenging to interpret due to the lack of a fast radiative transfer model for simulating them. This paper describes a variational algorithm that incorporates a fast forward model based on the time-dependent two-stream approximation, and its adjoint. Application of the algorithm to simulated data from a hypothetical airborne three-FOV lidar with a maximum footprint width of 600m suggests that this approach should be able to retrieve the extinction structure down to an optical depth of around 6, and total opticaldepth up to at least 35, depending on the maximum lidar FOV. The convergence behavior of Gauss-Newton and quasi-Newton optimization schemes are compared. We then present results from an application of the algorithm to observations of stratocumulus by the 8-FOV airborne “THOR” lidar. It is demonstrated how the averaging kernel can be used to diagnose the effective vertical resolution of the retrieved profile, and therefore the depth to which information on the vertical structure can be recovered. This work enables exploitation of returns from spaceborne lidar and radar subject to multiple scattering more rigorously than previously possible.

Acidity controls on dissolved organic carbon mobility in organic soils

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in surface waters have increased across much of Europe and North America, with implications for the terrestrial carbon balance, aquatic ecosystem functioning, water treatment costs and human health. Over the past decade, many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this phenomenon, from changing climate and land-management to eutrophication and acid deposition. Resolution of this debate has been hindered by a reliance on correlative analyses of time-series data, and a lack of robust experimental testing of proposed mechanisms. In a four-year, four-site replicated field experiment involving both acidifying and de-acidifying treatments, we tested the hypothesis that DOC leaching was previously suppressed by high levels of soil acidity in peat and organo-mineral soils, and therefore that observed DOC increases a consequence of decreasing soil acidity. We observed a consistent, positive relationship between DOC and acidity change at all sites. Responses were described by similar hyperbolic relationships between standardised changes in DOC and hydrogen ion concentrations at all sites, suggesting potentially general applicability. These relationships explained a substantial proportion of observed changes in peak DOC concentrations in nearby monitoring streams, and application to a UK-wide upland soil pH dataset suggests that recovery from acidification alone could have led to soil solution DOC increases in the range 46-126% by habitat type since 1978. Our findings raise the possibility that changing soil acidity may have wider impacts on ecosystem carbon balances. Decreasing sulphur deposition may be accelerating terrestrial carbon loss, and returning surface waters to a natural, high-DOC condition.