Asset life prediction and maintenance decision-making using a non-linear non-Gaussian state space model

Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.

Discovery & effective use of quality association rules in multi-level datasets

In today’s electronic world vast amounts of knowledge is stored within many datasets and databases. Often the default format of this data means that the knowledge within is not immediately accessible, but rather has to be mined and extracted. This requires automated tools and they need to be effective and efficient. Association rule mining is one approach to obtaining knowledge stored with datasets / databases which includes frequent patterns and association rules between the items / attributes of a dataset with varying levels of strength. However, this is also association rule mining’s downside; the number of rules that can be found is usually very big. In order to effectively use the association rules (and the knowledge within) the number of rules needs to be kept manageable, thus it is necessary to have a method to reduce the number of association rules. However, we do not want to lose knowledge through this process. Thus the idea of non-redundant association rule mining was born. A second issue with association rule mining is determining which ones are interesting. The standard approach has been to use support and confidence. But they have their limitations. Approaches which use information about the dataset’s structure to measure association rules are limited, but could yield useful association rules if tapped. Finally, while it is important to be able to get interesting association rules from a dataset in a manageable size, it is equally as important to be able to apply them in a practical way, where the knowledge they contain can be taken advantage of. Association rules show items / attributes that appear together frequently. Recommendation systems also look at patterns and items / attributes that occur together frequently in order to make a recommendation to a person. It should therefore be possible to bring the two together. In this thesis we look at these three issues and propose approaches to help. For discovering non-redundant rules we propose enhanced approaches to rule mining in multi-level datasets that will allow hierarchically redundant association rules to be identified and removed, without information loss. When it comes to discovering interesting association rules based on the dataset’s structure we propose three measures for use in multi-level datasets. Lastly, we propose and demonstrate an approach that allows for association rules to be practically and effectively used in a recommender system, while at the same time improving the recommender system’s performance. This especially becomes evident when looking at the user cold-start problem for a recommender system. In fact our proposal helps to solve this serious problem facing recommender systems.

The lived experience of being a sole mother in Taiwan

Aim: To explore the lived experience of being a sole mother in Taiwan Background: The number of sole mothers in Taiwan has increased by 55 % in the last decade due to changes in the social and economic status of women (e.g. earlier divorce, the development of national policies for the protection of women, the rise of feminism, and changing work practices which have seen an increase in the number of women in the workforce) (Taiwan Department of Statistics, 2010). Issues confronting sole mothers as part of daily living involve inability to cope with daily life stressors, little social support, experiencing feelings of helplessness and hopelessness, and lack of self-confidence to assume responsibility for the physical and mental health needs of themselves and their children (Cairney, 2007; Loxton, Mooney & Young, 2006; Samuels-Dennis, 2006; Waldron et al., 1996). Although there have been a number of studies conducted concerning what it means to be a sole mother, few Taiwanese studies have been undertaken. In light of the absence of research on this topic from a Taiwanese perspective, this study was undertaken. Design:A descriptive phenomenological approach was used for this study. Methods: In-depth audio-taped interviews were conducted with 15 sole Taiwanese mothers. The audiotapes were later transcribed, translated into English, and then back translated into Chinese to ensure accuracy of participants‘ information. Colaizzi‘s phenomenological approach to analysis with one additional step (eight steps in all) informed the analytical process. Findings: The process of analysis identified six central themes: 1. Enduring the burdensome, 2. Survival means living day-by-day, 3. Living in the shadows of insomnia, depression and suicidal thoughts, 4. Living with rejection and social isolation, 5. Living with uncertainty, and 6. Transcending difficult times through being resilient. Conclusion: For the participants of this study, the lived world of Taiwanese sole mothers was replete with daily difficulties marked by isolation, loneliness, social disapproval and rejection. Feelings of sadness and dejection were their daily companions. However, amid their myriad hardships, the participants found strength and solace in their children and close friends. Rather than succumb to the pressures of being a sole mother, the participants forged new paths spurred on by their own hopes and dreams for a better future. The findings of this study have the potential to make significant contributions to extant knowledge concerning the lived experiences of sole mothers in Taiwan.

Integrated Acquisition Engineering Model for acquiring heavy engineering assets

In asset intensive industries such as mining, oil & gas, utilities etc. most of the capital expenditure happens on acquiring engineering assets. Process of acquiring assets is called as “Procurement” or “Acquisition”. An asset procurement decision should be taken in consideration with the installation, commissioning, operational, maintenance and disposal needs of an asset or spare. However, such cross-functional collaboration and communication does not appear to happen between engineering, maintenance, warehousing and procurement functions in many asset intensive industries. Acquisition planning and execution are two distinct parts of asset acquisition process. Acquisition planning or procurement planning is responsible for determining exactly what is required to be purchased. It is important that an asset acquisition decision is the result of cross-functional decision making process. An acquisition decision leads to a formal purchase order. Most costly asset decisions occur even before they are acquired. Therefore, acquisition decision should be an outcome of an integrated planning & decision making process. Asset intensive organizations both, Government and non Government in Australia spent AUD 102.5 Billion on asset acquisition in year 2008-09. There is widespread evidence of many assets and spare not being used or utilized and in the end are written off. This clearly shows that many organizations end up buying assets or spares which were not required or non-conforming to the needs of user functions. It is due the fact that strategic and software driven procurement process do not consider all the requirements from various functions within the organization which contribute to the operation and maintenance of the asset over its life cycle. There is a lot of research done on how to implement an effective procurement process. There are numerous software solutions available for executing a procurement process. However, not much research is done on how to arrive at a cross functional procurement planning process. It is also important to link procurement planning process to procurement execution process. This research will discuss ““Acquisition Engineering Model” (AEM) framework, which aims at assisting acquisition decision making based on various criteria to satisfy cross-functional organizational requirements. Acquisition Engineering Model (AEM) will consider inputs from corporate asset management strategy, production management, maintenance management, warehousing, finance and HSE. Therefore, it is essential that the multi-criteria driven acquisition planning process is carried out and its output is fed to the asset acquisition (procurement execution) process. An effective procurement decision making framework to perform acquisition planning which considers various functional criteria will be discussed in this paper.

Local and global : cultural globalization, consumerism, and children's fiction

According to Zygmunt Bauman in Liquid Modernity (2000), the formerly solid and stable institutions of social life that characterised earlier stages of modernity have become fluid. He sees this as an outcome of the modernist project of progress itself, which in seeking to dismantle oppressive structures failed to reconstruct new roles for society, community and the individual. The un-tethering of social life from tradition in the latter stages of the twentieth century has produced unprecedented freedoms and unparalleled uncertainties, at least in the West. Although Bauman’s elaboration of some of the features and drivers of liquid modernity – increased mobility, rapid communications technologies, individualism – suggests it to be a neologism for globalisation, it is arguably also the context which has allowed this phenomenon to flourish. The qualities of fluidity, leakage, and flow that distinguish uncontained liquids also characterise globalisation, which encompasses a range of global trends and processes no longer confined to, or controlled by, the ‘container’ of the nation or state. The concept of liquid modernity helps to explain the conditions under which globalisation discourses have found a purchase and, by extension, the world in which contemporary children’s literature, media, and culture are produced. Perhaps more significantly, it points to the fluid conceptions of self and other that inform the ‘liquid’ worldview of the current generation of consumers of texts for children and young adults. This generation is growing up under the phase of globalisation we describe in this chapter.

Black v Garnock : implications for Queensland conveyancing practice

What was previously established as a fundamental principle, that a judgment creditor may take no interest beyond what the judgment debtor could give, has now been called into question by the decision of the High Court in Black v Garnock [2007] HCA 31. This article examines the implications of the decision of the High Court for conveyancing practice in Queensland. The relevant facts of Black v Garnock [2007] HCA 31 may be briefly stated: The Garnocks and the Luffs, as purchasers, entered a contract to purchase a rural property from Mrs Smith with settlement due on 24 August 2005. On 23 August 2005, a creditor obtained a writ against Mrs Smith from the District Court of New South Wales. No caveat was lodged on behalf of the purchasers prior to settlement (there being no equivalent, in New South Wales, of the Queensland settlement notice mechanism).

Land Sales Act 1984: The time limit for an application for exemption

The decision of Wilson J in Wan and Ors v NPD Property Development Pty Ltd [2004] QSC 232 also concerned the operation of the Land Sales Act 1984 (Qld) (‘the Act’). As previously noted, s 8(1) of the Act provides that a proposed allotment of freehold land might be sold only in certain circumstances. An agreement made in contravention of s 8(1) is void. Section 19 allows a purchaser (and others) to apply for an exemption from any of the provisions of Pt 2. By s 19(6), notwithstanding s 8, a person may agree to sell a proposed allotment if the instrument that binds a person to purchase the proposed allotment is conditional upon the grant of an exemption. By s 19(7) an application for exemption must be made ‘within 30 days after the event that marks the entry of a purchaser upon the purchase of the proposed allotment.’

Assessing the awareness and importance of housing sustainability in Queensland

Sustainability has been a major factor and determinant of commercial property design, construction, retro-fitting and landlord and tenant requirements over the last decade, supported by the introduction of rating tools such as NABERS and GreenStar and the recently mandated Building Energy Efficiency Certificate (BEEC). However, the movement to sustainable and energy efficient housing has not been established for the same period, and although mandatory building regulations have been in place for new residential housing construction since 2004, the requirement to improve the sustainability and energy efficiency of housing constructed prior to 2004 has not been mandatory. Residential dwelling energy efficiency and rating schemes introduced in Australia over the past decade have included rating schemes such as BASIX, NatHERS, First rate, ACTHERS, and Building Code of Australia and these have applied to new dwelling construction. At both National and State level the use of energy efficiency schemes for existing residential dwellings has been voluntary and despite significant cash incentives have not always been successful or achieved widespread take-up. In 2010, the Queensland Government regulated that all homes offered for sale, whether a new or existing dwellings require the seller to provide a ―sustainability declaration‖ that provides details of the sustainability measures associated with the dwelling being sold. The purpose of this declaration being to inform buyers and increase community awareness of home sustainability features. This paper uses an extensive review of real estate marketing material, together with a comprehensive survey of real estate agents to analyse the current market compliance, awareness and acceptance of existing green housing regulations and the importance that residential property owners and purchasers place on energy efficient and sustainable housing. The findings indicate that there is still little community awareness or concern of sustainable housing features when making home purchase decisions.

Can compensation be claimed under the standard commercial land and building contract where the property sold has no legally enforceable vehicular access?

This was the question that confronted Wilson J in Jarema Pty Ltd v Michihiko Kato [2004] QSC 451. Facts The plaintiff was the buyer of a commercial property at Bundall. The property comprised a 6 storey office building with a basement car park with 54 car parking spaces. The property was sold for $5 million with the contract being the standard REIQ/QLS form for Commercial Land and Buildings (2nd ed GST reprint). The contract provided for a “due diligence” period. During this period, the buyer’s solicitors discovered that there was no direct access from a public road to the car park entrance. Access to the car park was over a lot of which the Gold Coast City Council was the registered owner under a nomination of trustees, the Council holding the property on trust for car parking and town planning purposes. Due to the absence of a registered easement over the Council’s land, the buyer’s solicitors sought a reduction in the purchase price. The seller would not agree to this. Finally the sale was completed with the buyer reserving its rights to seek compensation.

A variant of the KLK4 gene is expressed as a cis sense-antisense chimeric transcript in prostate cancer cells

In humans, more than 30,000 chimeric transcripts originating from 23,686 genes have been identified. The mechanisms and association of chimeric transcripts arising from chromosomal rearrangements with cancer are well established, but much remains unknown regarding the biogenesis and importance of other chimeric transcripts that arise from nongenomic alterations. Recently, a SLC45A3–ELK4 chimera has been shown to be androgen-regulated, and is overexpressed in metastatic or high-grade prostate tumors relative to local prostate cancers. Here, we characterize the expression of a KLK4 cis sense–antisense chimeric transcript, and show other examples in prostate cancer. Using non-protein-coding microarray analyses, we initially identified an androgen-regulated antisense transcript within the 3′ untranslated region of the KLK4 gene in LNCaP cells. The KLK4 cis-NAT was validated by strand-specific linker-mediated RT-PCR and Northern blotting. Characterization of the KLK4 cis-NAT by 5′ and 3′ rapid amplification of cDNA ends (RACE) revealed that this transcript forms multiple fusions with the KLK4 sense transcript. Lack of KLK4 antisense promoter activity using reporter assays suggests that these transcripts are unlikely to arise from a trans-splicing mechanism. 5′ RACE and analyses of deep sequencing data from LNCaP cells treated ±androgens revealed six high-confidence sense–antisense chimeras of which three were supported by the cDNA databases. In this study, we have shown complex gene expression at the KLK4 locus that might be a hallmark of cis sense–antisense chimeric transcription.

Tailoring Consumer Resources to Enhance Self-Care in Chronic Heart Failure

Background Chronic heart failure (CHF) is associated with high hospitalisation and mortality rates and debilitating symptoms. In an effort to reduce hospitalisations and improve symptoms individuals must be supported in managing their condition. Patients who can effectively self-manage their symptoms through lifestyle modification and adherence to complex medication regimens will experience less hospitalisations and other adverse events. Aim The purpose of this paper is to explain how providing evidence-based information, using patient education resources, can support self-care. Discussion Self-care relates to the activities that individuals engage in relation to health seeking behaviours. Supporting self-care practices through tailored and relevant information can provide patients with resources and advice on strategies to manage their condition. Evidence-based approaches to improve adherence to self-care practices in patients with heart failure are not often reported. Low health literacy can result in poor understanding of the information about CHF and is related to adverse health outcomes. Also a lack of knowledge can lead to non-adherence with self-care practices such as following fluid restriction, low sodium diet and daily weighing routines. However these issues need to be addressed to improve self-management skills. Outcome Recently the Heart Foundation CHF consumer resource was updated based on evidence-based national clinical guidelines. The aim of this resource is to help consumers improve understanding of the disease, reduce uncertainty and anxiety about what to do when symptoms appear, encourage discussions with local doctors, and build confidence in self-care management. Conclusion Evidence-based CHF patient education resources promote self-care practices and early detection of symptom change that may reduce hospitalisations and improve the quality of life for people with CHF.

Review of refugee mental health interventions following resettlement : best practices and recommendations

There are increasing numbers of refugees worldwide, with approximately 16 million refugees in 2007 and over 2.5 million refugees resettled in the United States since the start of its humanitarian program. Psychologists and other health professionals who deliver mental health services for individuals from refugee backgrounds need to have confidence that the therapeutic interventions they employ are appropriate and effective for the clients with whom they work. The current review briefly surveys refugee research, examines empirical evaluations of therapeutic interventions in resettlement contexts, and provides recommendations for best practices and future directions in resettlement countries. The resettlement interventions found to be most effective typically target culturally homogeneous client samples and demonstrate moderate to large outcome effects on aspects of traumatic stress and anxiety reduction. Further evaluations of the array of psychotherapeutic, psychosocial, pharmacological, and other therapeutic approaches, including psychoeducational and community-based interventions that facilitate personal and community growth and change, are encouraged. There is a need for increased awareness, training and funding to implement longitudinal interventions that work collaboratively with clients from refugee backgrounds through the stages of resettlement.

Effect of vitamin D supplementation on muscle strength: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Summary This systematic review demonstrates that vitamin D supplementation does not have a significant effect on muscle strength in vitamin D replete adults. However, a limited number of studies demonstrate an increase in proximal muscle strength in adults with vitamin D deficiency. Introduction The purpose of this study is to systematically review the evidence on the effect of vitamin D supplementation on muscle strength in adults. Methods A comprehensive systematic database search was performed. Inclusion criteria included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) involving adult human participants. All forms and doses of vitamin D supplementation with or without calcium supplementation were included compared with placebo or standard care. Outcome measures included evaluation of strength. Outcomes were compared by calculating standardised mean difference (SMD) and 95% confidence intervals. Results Of 52 identified studies, 17 RCTs involving 5,072 participants met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis showed no significant effect of vitamin D supplementation on grip strength (SMD −0.02, 95%CI −0.15,0.11) or proximal lower limb strength (SMD 0.1, 95%CI −0.01,0.22) in adults with 25(OH)D levels >25 nmol/L. Pooled data from two studies in vitamin D deficient participants (25(OH)D <25 nmol/L) demonstrated a large effect of vitamin D supplementation on hip muscle strength (SMD 3.52, 95%CI 2.18, 4.85). Conclusion Based on studies included in this systematic review, vitamin D supplementation does not have a significant effect on muscle strength in adults with baseline 25(OH)D >25 nmol/L. However, a limited number of studies demonstrate an increase in proximal muscle strength in adults with vitamin D deficiency. Keywords Muscle – Muscle fibre – Strength – Vitamin D

Structured Telephone Support or Telemonitoring Programs for Patients with Chronic Heart Failure

Background: Specialised disease management programmes for chronic heart failure (CHF) improve survival, quality of life and reduce healthcare utilisation. The overall efficacy of structured telephone support or telemonitoring as an individual component of a CHF disease management strategy remains inconclusive. Objectives: To review randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of structured telephone support or telemonitoring compared to standard practice for patients with CHF in order to quantify the effects of these interventions over and above usual care for these patients. Search strategy: Databases (the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and Health Technology Assessment Database (HTA) on The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, AMED and Science Citation Index Expanded and Conference Citation Index on ISI Web of Knowledge) and various search engines were searched from 2006 to November 2008 to update a previously published non-Cochrane review. Bibliographies of relevant studies and systematic reviews and abstract conference proceedings were handsearched. No language limits were applied. Selection criteria: Only peer reviewed, published RCTs comparing structured telephone support or telemonitoring to usual care of CHF patients were included. Unpublished abstract data was included in sensitivity analyses. The intervention or usual care could not include a home visit or more than the usual (four to six weeks) clinic follow-up. Data collection and analysis: Data were presented as risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Primary outcomes included all-cause mortality, all-cause and CHF-related hospitalisations which were meta-analysed using fixed effects models. Other outcomes included length of stay, quality of life, acceptability and cost and these were described and tabulated. Main results: Twenty-five studies and five published abstracts were included. Of the 25 full peer-reviewed studies meta-analysed, 16 evaluated structured telephone support (5613 participants), 11 evaluated telemonitoring (2710 participants), and two tested both interventions (included in counts). Telemonitoring reduced all-cause mortality (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.81, P < 0.0001) with structured telephone support demonstrating a non-significant positive effect (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.01, P = 0.08). Both structured telephone support (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.87, P < 0.0001) and telemonitoring (RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.94, P = 0.008) reduced CHF-related hospitalisations. For both interventions, several studies improved quality of life, reduced healthcare costs and were acceptable to patients. Improvements in prescribing, patient knowledge and self-care, and New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class were observed. Authors' conclusions: Structured telephone support and telemonitoring are effective in reducing the risk of all-cause mortality and CHF-related hospitalisations in patients with CHF; they improve quality of life, reduce costs, and evidence-based prescribing.

Relationship between physical activity and stiff or painful joints in mid-aged women and older women: a 3-year prospective study

This prospective study examined the association between physical activity and the incidence of self-reported stiff or painful joints (SPJ) among mid-age women and older women over a 3-year period. Data were collected from cohorts of mid-age (48–55 years at Time 1; n = 4,780) and older women (72–79 years at Time 1; n = 3,970) who completed mailed surveys 3 years apart for the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Physical activity was measured with the Active Australia questions and categorized based on metabolic equivalent value minutes per week: none (<40 MET.min/week); very low (40 to <300 MET.min/week); low (300 to <600 MET.min/week); moderate (600 to <1,200 MET.min/week); and high (1,200+ MET.min/week). Cohort-specific logistic regression models were used to examine the association between physical activity at Time 1 and SPJ 'sometimes or often' and separately 'often' at Time 2. Respondents reporting SPJ 'sometimes or often' at Time 1 were excluded from analysis. In univariate models, the odds of reporting SPJ 'sometimes or often' were lower for mid-age respondents reporting low (odds ratio (OR) = 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.63–0.94), moderate (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68–0.99), and high (OR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.62–0.90) physical activity levels and for older respondents who were moderately (OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.65–0.98) or highly active (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.69–0.99) than for those who were sedentary. After adjustment for confounders, these associations were no longer statistically significant. The odds of reporting SPJ 'often' were lower for mid-age respondents who were moderately active (OR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.52–0.97) than for sedentary respondents in univariate but not adjusted models. Older women in the low (OR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.55–0.96), moderate (OR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.39–0.76), and high (OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.46–0.82) physical activity categories had lower odds of reporting SPJ 'often' at Time 2 than their sedentary counterparts, even after adjustment for confounders. These results are the first to show a dose–response relationship between physical activity and arthritis symptoms in older women. They suggest that advice for older women not currently experiencing SPJ should routinely include counseling on the importance of physical activity for preventing the onset of these symptoms.