899 resultados para probability of precocious pregnancy
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AbstractMycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) can infect ruminants and remain subclinical for long periods within herds. The identification of organs that are more susceptible to infection and the evaluation of cytokine expression at the site of infection are important to understand the pathogenesis of MAP. In this study, the probability of detection of MAP-DNA and the expression of cytokines in organs of C57BL/6 mice infected intraperitoneally for 120 days were evaluated. Among the evaluated organs, the spleen (85%), colon (75%) and liver (60%) had the highest frequency of positivity. When compared these frequencies between organs, it has been found that the spleen had 1.54 times as likely to be positive in relation to the ileum, and 2.0 times more likely in relation to the Peyer's patches. In addition, at 60 days post-infection, the spleen and the liver were responsible for upregulation of IFN-γ , and the ileum by TNF-α and IL-4. The results indicate that the spleen is the best organ for evaluating an experimental infection by MAP, especially in the initial stages of the infection. Moreover, it showed that the spleen, liver and ileum have a direct role in the inflammatory response in experimental models.
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Longitudinal surveys are increasingly used to collect event history data on person-specific processes such as transitions between labour market states. Surveybased event history data pose a number of challenges for statistical analysis. These challenges include survey errors due to sampling, non-response, attrition and measurement. This study deals with non-response, attrition and measurement errors in event history data and the bias caused by them in event history analysis. The study also discusses some choices faced by a researcher using longitudinal survey data for event history analysis and demonstrates their effects. These choices include, whether a design-based or a model-based approach is taken, which subset of data to use and, if a design-based approach is taken, which weights to use. The study takes advantage of the possibility to use combined longitudinal survey register data. The Finnish subset of European Community Household Panel (FI ECHP) survey for waves 1–5 were linked at person-level with longitudinal register data. Unemployment spells were used as study variables of interest. Lastly, a simulation study was conducted in order to assess the statistical properties of the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting (IPCW) method in a survey data context. The study shows how combined longitudinal survey register data can be used to analyse and compare the non-response and attrition processes, test the missingness mechanism type and estimate the size of bias due to non-response and attrition. In our empirical analysis, initial non-response turned out to be a more important source of bias than attrition. Reported unemployment spells were subject to seam effects, omissions, and, to a lesser extent, overreporting. The use of proxy interviews tended to cause spell omissions. An often-ignored phenomenon classification error in reported spell outcomes, was also found in the data. Neither the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption about non-response and attrition mechanisms, nor the classical assumptions about measurement errors, turned out to be valid. Both measurement errors in spell durations and spell outcomes were found to cause bias in estimates from event history models. Low measurement accuracy affected the estimates of baseline hazard most. The design-based estimates based on data from respondents to all waves of interest and weighted by the last wave weights displayed the largest bias. Using all the available data, including the spells by attriters until the time of attrition, helped to reduce attrition bias. Lastly, the simulation study showed that the IPCW correction to design weights reduces bias due to dependent censoring in design-based Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard model estimators. The study discusses implications of the results for survey organisations collecting event history data, researchers using surveys for event history analysis, and researchers who develop methods to correct for non-sampling biases in event history data.
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Experiments were conducted in 2010 to determine the influence of plant density and seed position on the mother plant on seed physiological characteristics of cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium). Cocklebur burs were collected in fall of 2010 from Research Farm of University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources of Gorgan, Iran. The experiment was established as factorial arrangement using a completely randomized design with three replications. The factors included different densities of cocklebur (0, 2, 4, 6 and 8 plant m-2) and the top and bottom parts of the canopy. Non dormant seeds were used for determining cardinal temperatures and tolerance to salinity and drought stresses. Base, optimum and ceiling germination temperatures were estimated between 7.09 to 12.33, 32 to 35 and 44 to 45 respectively in different treatments. Salinity stress up to 300 Mm and osmotic potential 8 bar inhibited the germination completely. Comparison of base temperatures and sigmoid equation coefficients showed that seeds produced in the top had higher germination than those that produced at the bottom of the mother plant. It seems plant densities through seed position on the mother plant affect seed quality. Likewise changes of light quality and quantity in shade environment increased seed dormancy in matured seeds. Shade environment affect seed germination on mother plant that increased dormancy of seeds maturing under shade be an adaptive response that reduces the probability of germination of offspring under unfavorable (shade, competitive) conditions.
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The use of the flow vs time relationship obtained with the nasal prongs of the AutoSetä (AS) system (diagnosis mode) has been proposed to detect apneas and hypopneas in patients with reasonable nasal patency. Our aim was to compare the accuracy of AS to that of a computerized polysomnographic (PSG) system. The study was conducted on 56 individuals (45 men) with clinical characteristics of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Their mean (± SD) age was 44.6 ± 12 years and their body mass index was 31.3 ± 7 kg/m2. Data were submitted to parametric analysis to determine the agreement between methods and the intraclass correlation coefficient was calculated. The Student t-test and Bland and Altman plots were also used. Twelve patients had an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) <10 in bed and 20 had values >40. The mean (± SD) AHI PSG index of 37.6 (28.8) was significantly lower (P = 0.0003) than AHI AS (41.8 (25.3)), but there was a high intraclass correlation coefficient (0.93), with 0.016 variance. For a threshold of AHI of 20, AS showed 73.0% accuracy, 97% sensitivity and 60% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 78% and 93%, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive values increased in parallel to the increase in AHI threshold for detecting OSA. However, when the differences of AHI PSG-AS were plotted against their means, the limits of agreement between the methods (95% of the differences) were +13 and -22, showing the discrepancy between the AHI values obtained with PSG and AS. Finally, cubic regression analysis was used to better predict the result of AHI PSG as a function of the method proposed, i.e., AHI AS. We conclude that, despite these differences, AHI measured by AutoSetä can be useful for the assessment of patients with high pre-test clinical probability of OSA, for whom standard PSG is not possible as an initial step in diagnosis.
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The objective of the present study was to determine the possible prognostic factors which may explain the difference in the survival of patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) with and without meconium ileus. Over a period of 20 years, 127 patients with CF, whose diagnosis was confirmed by typical clinical characteristics and altered sweat chloride levels, were studied retrospectively. The patients were divided into two groups: group 1 consisted of patients who presented CF and meconium ileus (N = 9), and group 2 consisted of patients with CF without meconium ileus (N = 118). The characteristics studied were based on data obtained upon admission of the patients using a specific protocol. Demographic, clinical, nutritional and laboratory data were obtained. The genotype was determined in 106 patients by PCR. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The median follow-up period was 44 months. A statistically significant difference was observed between the groups studied regarding the following variables: age at diagnosis and weight and height z scores. The presence of meconium ileus was associated with an earlier diagnosis; these patients had greater deficits in height and weight at the time of diagnosis and at the end of the study. The estimated probability of survival for patients with CF without meconium ileus was 62 ± 14% and for those with meconium ileus 32 ± 18%. Patients with CF and meconium ileus presented a poor nutritional status at diagnosis and a lower survival rate compared to the general CF population.
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The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the mixed lymphocyte culture as a predictive assay of acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). We studied 153 patients who received a first bone marrow transplantation from human leukocyte antigen-identical siblings. Acute GVHD was observed in 26 of 128 (20.3%) patients evaluated and chronic GVHD occurred in 60 of 114 (52.6%). One-way mixed lymphocyte culture (MLC) assays were performed by the standard method. MLC results are reported as the relative response (RR) from donor against patient cells. The responses ranged from -47.0 to 40.7%, with a median of 0.5%. The Kaplan-Meier probability of developing GVHD was determined for patients with positive and negative MLC. There was no significant difference in incidence of acute GVHD between the groups studied. However, the incidence of chronic GVHD was higher in recipients with RR >4.5% than in those with RR <=4.5%. The Cox Proportional Hazards model was used to examine the effect of MLC levels on incidence of chronic GVHD, while adjusting for the potential confounding effect of others suspected or observed risk factors. The relative risk of chronic GVHD was 2.5 for patients with positive MLC (RR >4.5%), 2.9 for those who received peripheral blood progenitor cells as a graft, and 2.2 for patients who developed previous acute GVHD. MLC was not useful for predicting acute GVHD, but MLC with RR >4.5% associated with other risk factors could predict the development of chronic GVHD, being of help for the prevention and/or treatment of this late complication.
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This master’s thesis studies the probability of bankruptcy of Finnish limited liability companies as a part of credit risk assessment. The main idea of this thesis is to build and test bankruptcy prediction models for Finnish limited liability companies that can be utilized in credit decision making. The data used in this thesis consists of historical financial statements from 2112 Finnish limited liability companies, half of which have filed for bankruptcy. A total of four models are developed, two with logistic regression and two with multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA). The time horizon of the models varies from 1 to 2 years prior to the bankruptcy, and 14 different financial variables are used in the model formation. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the models ranges between 81.7% and 88.9%, and the best prediction accuracy is achieved with the one year prior the bankruptcy logistic regression model. However the difference between the best logistic model and the best MDA model is minimal. Overall based on the results of this thesis it can be concluded that predicting bankruptcy is possible to some extent, but naturally the results are not perfect.
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Several genes that influence the development and function of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal-axis (HPG) have been identified. These genes encode an array of transcription factors, matrix proteins, hormones, receptors, and enzymes that are expressed at multiple levels of the HPG. We report the experience of a single Endocrinology Unit in the identification and characterization of naturally occurring mutations in families affected by HPG disorders, including forms of precocious puberty, hypogonadism and abnormal sexual development due to impaired gonadotropin function. Eight distinct genes implicated in HPG function were studied: KAL, SF1, DAX1, GnRH, GnRHR, FSHß, FSHR, and LHR. Most mutations identified in our cohort are described for the first time in literature. New mutations in SF1, DAX1 and GnRHR genes were identified in three Brazilian patients with hypogonadism. Eight boys with luteinizing hormone- (LH) independent precocious puberty due to testotoxicosis were studied, and all have their LH receptor (LHR) defects elucidated. Among the identified LHR molecular defects, three were new activating mutations. In addition, these mutations were frequently associated with new clinical and hormonal aspects, contributing significantly to the knowledge of the molecular basis of reproductive disorders. In conclusion, the naturally occurring genetic mutations described in the Brazilian families studied provide important insights into the regulation of the HPG.
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The human androgen receptor (AR) gene promoter lies in a GC-rich region containing two principal sites of transcription initiation and a putative Sp1 protein-binding site, without typical "TATA" and "CAAT" boxes. It has been suggested that mutations within the 5'untranslated region (5'UTR) may contribute to the development of prostate cancer by changing the rates of gene transcription and/or translation. In order to investigate this question, the aim of the present study was to search for the presence of mutations or polymorphisms at the AR-5'UTR in 92 prostate cancer patients, where histological diagnosis of adenocarcinoma was established in specimens obtained from transurethral resection or after prostatectomy. The AR-5'UTR was amplified by PCR from genomic DNA samples of the patients and of 100 healthy male blood donors, included as controls. Conformation-sensitive gel electrophoresis was used for DNA sequence alteration screening. Only one band shift was detected in one individual from the blood donor group. Sequencing revealed a new single nucleotide deletion (T) in the most conserved portion of the promoter region at position +36 downstream from the transcription initiation site I. Although the effect of this specific mutation remains unknown, its rarity reveals the high degree of sequence conservation of the human androgen promoter region. Moreover, the absence of detectable variation within the critical 5'UTR in prostate cancer patients indicates a low probability of its involvement in prostate cancer etiology.
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The prevalent rate of psychiatry morbidity amongst patients with cancer reported in various studies ranges from 5 to 50%, a variation that can be attributed to differences in sample size, the disease itself and treatment factors. The objectives of the present study were to determine the frequency of psychiatric morbidity amongst recently diagnosed cancer outpatients and try to identify which factors might be related to further psychological distress. Two hundred and eleven (70.9%) female patients and 87 (29.1%) male patients from the chemotherapy unit of the Cancer Hospital A.C. Camargo (São Paulo) completed a questionnaire that featured data on demographic, medical and treatment details. The Self Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20) was administered to the patients to determine their personal psychiatric morbidity. Seventy-two patients (25.8%) scored > or = 8 in the SRQ-20, the cut-off point for a patient to be considered a psychiatric case. When the low and high scoring groups were compared no differences were detected regarding age, marital status, tumor site, sex, or previous treatment. Nonetheless, patients in the lowest social class and those who were bedridden less than 50% of the time had a significantly higher probability of being a psychiatric case. Regarding help-seeking behavior in situations in which they had doubts or were frightened, about 64% of the total sample did not seek any type of support and did not talk to anyone. This frequency of psychiatric morbidity agrees with data from the cancer literature. According to many investigators, the early detection of a comorbid psychiatric disorder is crucial to relieve a patient's suffering.
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CDKN2A has been implicated as a melanoma susceptibility gene in some kindreds with a family history of this disease. Mutations in CDKN2A may produce an imbalance between functional p16ink4a and cyclin D causing abnormal cell growth. We searched for germline mutations in this gene in 22 patients with clinical criteria of hereditary cancer (early onset, presence of multiple primary melanoma or 1 or more first- or second-degree relatives affected) by secondary structural content prediction, a mutation scanning method that relies on the propensity for single-strand DNA to take on a three-dimensional structure that is highly sequence dependent, and sequencing the samples with alterations in the electrophoretic mobility. The prevalence of CDKN2A mutation in our study was 4.5% (1/22) and there was a correlation between family history and probability of mutation detection. We found the P48T mutation in 1 patient with 2 melanoma-affected relatives. The patient descends from Italian families and this mutation has been reported previously only in Italian families in two independent studies. This leads us to suggest the presence of a mutational "hotspot" within this gene or a founder mutation. We also detected a high prevalence (59.1%) of polymorphisms, mainly alleles 500 C/G (7/31.8%) or 540 C/T (6/27.3%), in the 3' untranslated region of exon 3. This result reinforces the idea that these rare polymorphic alleles have been significantly associated with the risk of developing melanoma.
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In the present study, 470 children less than 72 months of age and presenting acute diarrhea were examined to identify associated enteropathogenic agents. Viruses were the pathogens most frequently found in stools of infants with diarrhea, including 111 cases of rotavirus (23.6% of the total diarrhea cases) and 30 cases of adenovirus (6.3%). The second group was diarrheogenic Escherichia coli (86 cases, 18.2%), followed by Salmonella sp (44 cases, 9.3%) and Shigella sp (24 cases, 5.1%). Using the PCR technique to differentiate the pathogenic categories of E. coli, it was possible to identify 29 cases (6.1%) of enteropathogenic E. coli (EPEC). Of these, 10 (2.1%) were typical EPEC and 19 (4.0%) atypical EPEC. In addition, there were 26 cases (5.5%) of enteroaggregative E. coli, 21 cases (4.4%) of enterotoxigenic E. coli, 7 cases (1.4%) of enteroinvasive E. coli (EIEC), and 3 cases (0.6%) of enterohemorrhagic E. coli. When comparing the frequencies of diarrheogenic E. coli, EPEC was the only category for which significant differences were found between diarrhea and control groups. A low frequency of EIEC was found, thus EIEC cannot be considered to be a potential etiology agent of diarrhea. Simultaneous infections with two pathogens were found in 39 diarrhea cases but not in controls, suggesting associations among potential enteropathogens in the etiology of diarrhea. The frequent association of diarrheogenic E. coli strains was significantly higher than the probability of their random association, suggesting the presence of facilitating factor(s).
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Several companies are trying to improve their operation efficiency by implementing an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system that makes it possible to control the resources of the company in real time. However, the success of the implementation project is not a foregone conclusion; a significant part of these projects end in a failure, one way or another. Therefore it is important to investigate ERP system implementation more closely in order to increase understanding about factors influencing ERP system success and to improve the probability of a successful ERP implementation project. Consequently, this study was initiated because a manufacturing case company wanted to review the success of their ERP implementation project. To be exact, the case company hoped to gain both information about the success of the project and insight for future implementation improvement. This study investigated ERP success specifically by examining factors that influence ERP key-user satisfaction. User satisfaction is one of the most commonly applied indicators of information system success. The research data was mainly collected by conducting theme interviews. The subjects of the interviews were six key-users of the newly implemented ERP system. The interviewees were closely involved in the implementation project. Furthermore, they act as representative users that utilize the new system in everyday business processes. The collected data was analyzed by thematizing. Both data collection and analysis were guided by a theoretical frame of reference. This frame was based on previous research on the subject. The results of the study aligned with the theoretical framework to large extent. The four principal factors influencing key-user satisfaction were change management, contractor service, key-user’s system knowledge and characteristics of the ERP product itself. One of the most significant contributions of the research is that it confirmed the existence of a connection between change management and ERP key-user satisfaction. Furthermore, it discovered two new sub-factors influencing contractor service related key-user satisfaction. In addition, the research findings indicated that in order to improve the current level of key-user satisfaction, the case company should pay special attention to system functionality improvement and enhancement of the key-users’ knowledge. During similar implementation projects in the future, it would be important to assure the success of change management and contractor service related processes.
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Pregnancy loss can be caused by several factors involved in human reproduction. Although up to 50% of cases remain unexplained, it has been postulated that the major cause of failed pregnancy is an error of embryo implantation. Transmembrane mucin-1 (MUC-1) is a glycoprotein expressed on the endometrial cell surface which acts as a barrier to implantation. The gene that codes for this molecule is composed of a polymorphic tandem repeat of 60 nucleotides. Our objective was to determine if MUC-1 genetic polymorphism is associated with implantation failure in patients with a history of recurrent abortion. The study was conducted on 10 women aged 25 to 35 years with no history of successful pregnancy and with a diagnosis of infertility. The control group consisted of 32 patients aged 25 to 35 years who had delivered at least two full-term live children and who had no history of abortions or fetal losses. MUC-1 amplicons were obtained by PCR and observed on agarose and polyacrylamide gel after electrophoresis. Statistical analysis showed no significant difference in the number of MUC-1 variable number of tandem repeats between these groups (P > 0.05). Our results suggest that there is no effect of the polymorphic MUC-1 sequence on the implantation failure. However, the data do not exclude MUC-1 relevance during embryo implantation. The process is related to several associated factors such as the mechanisms of gene expression in the uterus, specific MUC-1 post-translational modifications and appropriate interactions with other molecules during embryo implantation.
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The fractal dimension has been employed as a useful parameter in the diagnosis of retinal disease. Avakian et al. (Curr Eye Res 2002; 24: 274-280), comparing the vascular pattern of normal patients with mild to moderate non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR), found a significant difference between them only in the macular region. This significant difference in the box-counting fractal dimension of the macular region between normal and mild NPDR patients has been proposed as a method of precocious diagnosis of NPDR. The aim of the present study was to determine if fractal dimensions can really be used as a parameter for the early diagnosis of NPDR. Box-counting and information fractal dimensions were used to parameterize the vascular pattern of the human retina. The two methods were applied to the whole retina and to nine anatomical regions of the retina in 5 individuals with mild NPDR and in 28 diabetic but opthalmically normal individuals (controls), with age between 31 and 86 years. All images of retina were obtained from the Digital Retinal Images for Vessel Extraction (DRIVE) database. The results showed that the fractal dimension parameter was not sensitive enough to be of use for an early diagnosis of NPDR.