952 resultados para prior probabilities
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Thesis (doctoral)--Universitas Litterarum Viadrina Vratislaviensi.
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Thesis (doctoral)--Bonn, 1872.
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Thesis (doctoral)--Universitate Friderica Guilelma Berolinensi.
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Thesis (doctoral)--Universitas Regia Vratislaviensi.
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Thesis (doctoral)--Academia Groningana.
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"Selected bibliography": p.194-196. Bibliographical "Notes": p.197-229.
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Mode of access: Internet.
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Mode of access: Internet.
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Frequency of exposure to very low- and high-frequency words was manipulated in a three-phase (familiarisation, study, and test) design. During familiarisation, words were presented with their definition (once, four times, or not presented). One week (Experiment 1) or one day (Experiment 2) later, participants studied a list of homogeneous pairs (i.e., pair members were matched on background and familiarisation frequency). Item and associative recognition of high- and very low-frequency words presented in intact, rearranged, old-new, or new-new pairs were tested in Experiment 1. Associative recognition of very low-frequency words was tested in Experiment 2. Results showed that prior familiaris ation improved associative recognition of very low-frequency pairs, but had no effect on high-frequency pairs. The role of meaning in the formation of item-to-item and item-to-context associations and the implications for current models of memory are discussed.
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Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.
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Complementing our recent work on subspace wavepacket propagation [Chem. Phys. Lett. 336 (2001) 149], we introduce a Lanczos-based implementation of the Faber polynomial quantum long-time propagator. The original version [J. Chem. Phys. 101 (1994) 10493] implicitly handles non-Hermitian Hamiltonians, that is, those perturbed by imaginary absorbing potentials to handle unwanted reflection effects. However, like many wavepacket propagation schemes, it encounters a bottleneck associated with dense matrix-vector multiplications. Our implementation seeks to reduce the quantity of such costly operations without sacrificing numerical accuracy. For some benchmark scattering problems, our approach compares favourably with the original. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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A 12-year-old male castrated Samoyed dog was presented with left-sided epistaxis and sneezing. Diagnostic procedures included haematology and biochemistry testing, thoracic radiography, fine needle aspiration of regional lymph nodes, CT, rhinoscopy, incisional biopsy and histopathology. Squamous cell carcinoma of the rostral nasal cavity was diagnosed, with no evidence of metastatic disease. External beam radiation was not an accessible treatment option. Complete surgical resection of the tumour would have required a larger, more disfiguring resection of nasal planum and maxilla than the owner was prepared to accept and may have been associated with an unacceptable morbidity. As an alternative, the extent of disease was reduced using a combination of carboplatin, doxorubicin and piroxicam chemotherapy. This allowed a less extensive nasal planum removal to be performed to remove residual disease with clean margins. The patient achieved a 14 month disease free interval from the time of surgery to the time of local recurrence. Survival time from diagnosis to eventual euthanasia for progressive local disease was 18 months.
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In 3 experiments, the authors examined the role of memory for prior instances for making relative judgments in conflict detection. Participants saw pairs of aircraft either repeatedly conflict with each other or pass safely before being tested on new aircraft pairs, which varied in similarity to the training pairs. Performance was influenced by the similarity between aircraft pairs. Detection time was faster when a conflict pair resembled a pair that had repeatedly conflicted. Detection time was slower, and participants missed conflicts, when a conflict pair resembled a pair that had repeatedly passed safely. The findings identify aircraft features that are used as inputs into the memory decision process and provide an indication of the processes involved in the use of memory for prior instances to make relative judgments.
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Sex- and age-class-specific survival probabilities of a southern Great Barrier Reef green sea turtle population were estimated using a capture - mark - recapture (CMR) study and a Cormack - Jolly - Seber (CJS) modelling approach. The CMR history profiles for 954 individual turtles tagged over a 9-year period ( 1984 - 1992) were classified into three age classes ( adult, subadult, juvenile) based on somatic growth and reproductive traits. Reduced-parameter CJS models, accounting for constant survival and time-specific recapture, fitted best for all age classes. There were no significant sex-specific differences in either survival or recapture probabilities for any age class. Mean annual adult survival was estimated at 0.9482 (95% CI: 0.92 - 0.98) and was significantly higher than survival for either subadults or juveniles. Mean annual subadult survival was 0.8474 ( 95% CI: 0.79 - 0.91), which was not significantly different from mean annual juvenile survival estimated at 0.8804 ( 95% CI: 0.84 - 0.93). The time-specific adult recapture probabilities were a function of sampling effort but this was not the case for either juveniles or subadults. The sampling effort effect was accounted for explicitly in the estimation of adult survival and recapture probabilities. These are the first comprehensive sex- and age-class-specific survival and recapture probability estimates for a green sea turtle population derived from a long-term CMR program.
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Purpose: Although the body-mass management strategies of athletes in high-participation weight-category sports such as wrestling have been thoroughly investigated, little is known about such practices among lightweight rowers. This study examined the body-mass management practices of lightweight rowers before competition and compared these with current guidelines of the International Federation of Rowing Association (FISA). Quantification of nutrient intake in the 1-2 h between weigh-in and racing was also sought. Methods: Lightweight rowers (N = 100) competing in a national regatta completed a questionnaire that assessed body-mass management practices during the 4 wk before and throughout a regatta plus recovery strategies after weigh-in. Biochemical data were collected immediately after weigh-in to validate questionnaire responses. Responses were categorized according to gender and age category (Senior B or younger than 23 yr old, i.e., U23, Senior A or OPEN, i.e., open age limit) for competition. Results: Most athletes (male U23 76.5%, OPEN 92.3%; female U23 84.0%, OPEN 94.1%) decreased their body mass in the weeks before the regatta at rates compliant with FISA guidelines. Gradual dieting, fluid restriction, and increased training load were the most popular methods of body-mass management. Although the importance of recovery after weigh-in was recognized by athletes, nutrient intake and especially sodium (male U23 5.3 ± 4.9, OPEN 7.7 ± 5.9; female U23 5.7 ± 6.8, OPEN 10.2 ± 5.4 mg-kg(-1)) and fluid intake (male U23 12.1 ± 7.1, OPEN 13.5 ± 8.1; female U23 9.4 ± 7.4, OPEN 14.8 ± 6.9 mL.kg(-1)) were below current sports nutrition recommendations. Conclusion: Few rowers were natural lightweights; the majority reduced their body mass in the weeks before a regatta. Nutritional recovery strategies implemented by lightweight rowers after weigh-in were not consistent with current guidelines.