Prospects for predicting insect mortality in relation to changing phosphine concentrations

Typically, in bag-stack or silo fumigations the concentration of phosphine is not constant, and yet most of what is known about phosphine efficacy against grain insects comes from studies with fixed concentrations. Indeed, where changing concentration experiments have been performed, researchers have been unable to explain observed efficacy on the basis of data from fixed concentrations. The ability to predict insect mortality in relation to changing phosphine concentrations would facilitate the development of effective fumigation protocols. In this paper, we explore the prospects for making such predictions. After reviewing published and new results, we conclude that the commonly used concentration x time (Ct) product is unreliable for this purpose. New results, for a strongly resistant strain of Rhyzopertha dominica from Australia, suggest that the relationship Cnt = k may be useful for predicting mortality of this type of insect in changing concentrations. However, in the case of a strain of Sitophilus oryzae with a type of resistance common in Australian S. oryzae, the relationship Cnt = k proved to be less reliable.

Predicting mortality of phosphine-resistant adults of Sitophilus oryzae (L) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in relation to changing phosphine concentration

Adults of a phosphine-resistant strain of Sitophilus oryzae (L) were exposed to constant phosphine concentrations of 0.0035-0.9 mg litre(-1) for periods of between 20 and 168 h at 25 °C, and the effects of time and concentration on mortality were quantified. Adults were also exposed to a series of treatments lasting 48, 72 or 168 h at 25 °C, during which the concentration of phosphine was varied. The aim of this study was to determine whether equations from experiments using constant concentrations could be used to predict the efficacy of changing phosphine concentrations against adults of S oryzae. A probit plane without interaction, in which the logarithms of time (t) and concentration (C) were variables, described the effects of concentration and time on mortality in experiments with constant concentrations. A derived equation of the form C^nt = k gave excellent predictions of toxicity when applied to data from changing concentration experiments. The results suggest that for resistant S oryzae adults there is nothing inherently different between constant and changing concentration regimes, and that data collected from fixed concentrations can be used to develop equations for predicting mortality in fumigations in which phosphine concentration changes. This approach could simplify the prediction of efficacy of typical fumigations in which concentrations tend to rise and then fall over a period of days.

Effect of seasonal conditions on fleece weight and its components in merino sheep grazing Mitchell grass pasture in North West Queensland

SUMMARY Seasonal conditions in the pre to post natal period and selected periods before and during wool growth were described using climatic measures and estimates of the quality and quantity of pasture on offer derived from a validated pasture production model (GRASP). The variation in greasy and clean fleece weight, yield, staple length, fibre diameter, neck and side wrinkle score of Merinos grazing Mitchell grass in north west Queensland was explained in terms of these pasture and climatic measures and animal characteristics such as reproductive status, age and skin area. Multiple regression equations predicting clean and greasy fleece weight from the proportion of days in the wool growth period that the green pool in the pasture was less than one kg/ha, the percentage utilisation of the pasture, age, reproductive status and skin area of the ewes explained 87% and 79% of the variation respectively. Equations with similar predictors explained 58-85% of the variation of the other components. The inclusion of pasture conditions in the pre to post natal period did not significantly improve the predictions of the animal’s later performance. 22nd Biennial Conference.

Timing the Emergence of Resistance to Anti-HIV Drugs with Large Genetic Barriers

New antiretroviral drugs that offer large genetic barriers to resistance, such as the recently approved inhibitors of HIV-1 protease, tipranavir and darunavir, present promising weapons to avert the failure of current therapies for HIV infection. Optimal treatment strategies with the new drugs, however, are yet to be established. A key limitation is the poor understanding of the process by which HIV surmounts large genetic barriers to resistance. Extant models of HIV dynamics are predicated on the predominance of deterministic forces underlying the emergence of resistant genomes. In contrast, stochastic forces may dominate, especially when the genetic barrier is large, and delay the emergence of resistant genomes. We develop a mathematical model of HIV dynamics under the influence of an antiretroviral drug to predict the waiting time for the emergence of genomes that carry the requisite mutations to overcome the genetic barrier of the drug. We apply our model to describe the development of resistance to tipranavir in in vitro serial passage experiments. Model predictions of the times of emergence of different mutant genomes with increasing resistance to tipranavir are in quantitative agreement with experiments, indicating that our model captures the dynamics of the development of resistance to antiretroviral drugs accurately. Further, model predictions provide insights into the influence of underlying evolutionary processes such as recombination on the development of resistance, and suggest guidelines for drug design: drugs that offer large genetic barriers to resistance with resistance sites tightly localized on the viral genome and exhibiting positive epistatic interactions maximally inhibit the emergence of resistant genomes.

Runoff, sediment loss and water quality from forest roads in a southeast Queensland coastal plain Pinus plantation

Runoff and sediment loss from forest roads were monitored for a two-year period in a Pinus plantation in southeast Queensland. Two classes of road were investigated: a gravelled road, which is used as a primary daily haulage route for the logging area, and an ungravelled road, which provides the main access route for individual logging compartments and is intensively used as a haulage route only during the harvest of these areas (approximately every 30 years). Both roads were subjected to routine traffic loads and maintenance during the study. Surface runoff in response to natural rainfall was measured and samples taken for the determination of sediment and nutrient (total nitrogen, total phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon and total iron) loads from each road. Results revealed that the mean runoff coefficient (runoff depth/rainfall depth) was consistently higher from the gravelled road plot with 0.57, as compared to the ungravelled road with 0.38. Total sediment loss over the two-year period was greatest from the gravelled road plot at 5.7 t km−1 compared to the ungravelled road plot with 3.9 t km−1. Suspended solids contributed 86% of the total sediment loss from the gravelled road, and 72% from the ungravelled road over the two years. Nitrogen loads from the two roads were both relatively constant throughout the study, and averaged 5.2 and 2.9 kg km−1 from the gravelled and ungravelled road, respectively. Mean annual phosphorus loads were 0.6 kg km−1 from the gravelled road and 0.2 kg km−1 from the ungravelled road. Organic carbon and total iron loads increased in the second year of the study, which was a much wetter year, and are thought to reflect the breakdown of organic matter in roadside drains and increased sediment generation, respectively. When road and drain maintenance (grading) was performed runoff and sediment loss were increased from both road types. Additionally, the breakdown of the gravel road base due to high traffic intensity during wet conditions resulted in the formation of deep (10 cm) ruts which increased erosion. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP):Road model was used to compare predicted to observed runoff and sediment loss from the two road classes investigated. For individual rainfall events, WEPP:Road predicted output showed strong agreement with observed values of runoff and sediment loss. WEPP:Road predictions for annual sediment loss from the entire forestry road network in the study area also showed reasonable agreement with the extrapolated observed values.

Modelling Leaf Production and Crop Development in Maize (Zea mays L.) After Tassel Initiation Under Diverse Conditions of Temperature and Photoperiod

Prediction of the initiation, appearance and emergence of leaves is critically important to the success of simulation models of crop canopy development and some aspects of crop ontogeny. Data on leaf number and crop ontogeny were collected on five cultivars of maize differing widely in maturity and genetic background grown under natural and extended photoperiods, and planted on seven sowing dates from October 1993 to March 1994 at Gatton, South-east Queensland. The same temperature coefficients were established for crop ontogeny before silking, and the rates of leaf initiation, leaf tip appearance and full leaf expansion, the base, optimum and maximum temperatures for each being 8, 34 and 40 degrees C. After silking, the base temperature for ontogeny was 0 degrees C, but the optimum and maximum temperatures remained unchanged. The rates of leaf initiation, appearance of leaf tips and full leaf expansion varied in a relatively narrow range across sowing times and photoperiod treatments, with average values of 0.040 leaves (degrees Cd)-1, 0.021 leaves (degrees Cd)-1, and 0.019 leaves (degrees Cd)-1, respectively. The relationships developed in this study provided satisfactory predictions of leaf number and crop ontogeny (tassel initiation to silking, emergence to silking and silking to physiological maturity) when assessed using independent data from Gatton (South eastern Queensland), Katherine and Douglas Daly (Northern Territory), Walkamin (North Queensland) and Kununurra (Western Australia).

Sampling Methods for Exploring Between Subject Variability in Cardiac Electrophysiology Experiments

Between-subject and within-subject variability is ubiquitous in biology and physiology and understanding and dealing with this is one of the biggest challenges in medicine. At the same time it is difficult to investigate this variability by experiments alone. A recent modelling and simulation approach, known as population of models (POM), allows this exploration to take place by building a mathematical model consisting of multiple parameter sets calibrated against experimental data. However, finding such sets within a high-dimensional parameter space of complex electrophysiological models is computationally challenging. By placing the POM approach within a statistical framework, we develop a novel and efficient algorithm based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We compare the SMC approach with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), a method commonly adopted in the literature for obtaining the POM, in terms of efficiency and output variability in the presence of a drug block through an in-depth investigation via the Beeler-Reuter cardiac electrophysiological model. We show improved efficiency via SMC and that it produces similar responses to LHS when making out-of-sample predictions in the presence of a simulated drug block.

Testing approximate theories of first-order phase transitions on the two-dimensional Potts model

The two-dimensional,q-state (q>4) Potts model is used as a testing ground for approximate theories of first-order phase transitions. In particular, the predictions of a theory analogous to the Ramakrishnan-Yussouff theory of freezing are compared with those of ordinary mean-field (Curie-Wiess) theory. It is found that the Curie-Weiss theory is a better approximation than the Ramakrishnan-Yussouff theory, even though the former neglects all fluctuations. It is shown that the Ramakrishnan-Yussouff theory overestimates the effects of fluctuations in this system. The reasons behind the failure of the Ramakrishnan-Yussouff approximation and the suitability of using the two-dimensional Potts model as a testing ground for these theories are discussed.

Validation-Based Sparse Gaussian Process Classifier Design

Gaussian processes (GPs) are promising Bayesian methods for classification and regression problems. Design of a GP classifier and making predictions using it is, however, computationally demanding, especially when the training set size is large. Sparse GP classifiers are known to overcome this limitation. In this letter, we propose and study a validation-based method for sparse GP classifier design. The proposed method uses a negative log predictive (NLP) loss measure, which is easy to compute for GP models. We use this measure for both basis vector selection and hyperparameter adaptation. The experimental results on several real-world benchmark data sets show better orcomparable generalization performance over existing methods.

The onset of warps in Spitzer observations of edge-on spiral galaxies

We analyse warps in the nearby edge-on spiral galaxies observed in the Spitzer/Infrared Array Camera (IRAC)4.5-mu m band. In our sample of 24 galaxies, we find evidence of warp in 14 galaxies. We estimate the observed onset radii for the warps in a subsample of 10 galaxies. The dark matter distribution in each of these galaxies are calculated using the mass distribution derived from the observed light distribution and the observed rotation curves. The theoretical predictions of the onset radii for the warps are then derived by applying a self-consistent linear response theory to the obtained mass models for six galaxies with rotation curves in the literature. By comparing the observed onset radii to the theoretical ones, we find that discs with constant thickness can not explain the observations; moderately flaring discs are needed. The required flaring is consistent with the observations. Our analysis shows that the onset of warp is not symmetric in our sample of galaxies. We define a new quantity called the onset-asymmetry index and study its dependence on galaxy properties. The onset asymmetries in warps tend to be larger in galaxies with smaller dis scalelengths. We also define and quantify the global asymmetry in the stellar light distribution, that we call the edge-on asymmetry in edge-on galaxies. It is shown that in most cases the onset asymmetry in warp is actually anticorrelated with the measured edge-on asymmetry in our sample of edge-on galaxies and this could plausibly indicate that the surrounding dark matter distribution is asymmetric.

An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets

We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.

Diet quality and liveweight gain of steers grazing Leucaena-grass pasture estimated with faecal near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (F.NIRS)

Three drafts of Bos indicus cross steers (initially 178-216 kg) grazed Leucaena-grass pasture [Leucaena leucocephala subspecies glabrata cv. Cunningham with green panic (Panicum maximum cv. trichoglume)] from late winter through to autumn during three consecutive years in the Burnett region of south-east Queensland. Measured daily weight gain (DWGActual) of the steers was generally 0.7-1.1 kg/day during the summer months. Estimated intakes of metabolisable energy and dry matter (DM) were calculated from feeding standards as the intakes required by the steers to grow at the DWGActual. Diet attributes were predicted from near infrared reflectance spectroscopy spectra of faeces (F.NIRS) using established calibration equations appropriate for northern Australian forages. Inclusion of some additional reference samples from cattle consuming Leucaena diets into F.NIRS calibrations based on grass and herbaceous legume-grass pastures improved prediction of the proportion of Leucaena in the diet. Mahalanobis distance values supported the hypothesis that the F.NIRS predictions of diet crude protein concentration and DM digestibility (DMD) were acceptable. F.NIRS indicated that the percentage of Leucaena in the diet varied widely (10-99%). Diet crude protein concentration and DMD were usually high, averaging 12.4 and 62%, respectively, and were related asymptotically to the percentage of Leucaena in the diet (R2 = 0.48 and 0.33, respectively). F.NIRS calibrations for DWG were not satisfactory to predict this variable from an individual faecal sample since the s.e. of prediction were 0.33-0.40 kg/day. Cumulative steer liveweight (LW) predicted from F.NIRS DWG calibrations, which had been previously developed with tropical grass and grass-herbaceous legume pastures, greatly overestimated the measured steer LW; therefore, these calibrations were not useful. Cumulative steer LW predicted from a modified F.NIRS DWG calibration, which included data from the present study, was strongly correlated (R2 = 0.95) with steer LW but overestimated LW by 19-31 kg after 8 months. Additional reference data are needed to develop robust F.NIRS calibrations to encompass the diversity of Leucaena pastures of northern Australia. In conclusion, the experiment demonstrated that F.NIRS could improve understanding of diet quality and nutrient intake of cattle grazing Leucaena-grass pasture, and the relationships between nutrient supply and cattle growth.

Seed persistence in the field may be predicted by laboratory-controlled aging

Weed management is complicated by the presence of soil seed banks. The complexity of soil-seed interactions means that seed persistence in the field is often difficult to measure, let alone predict. Field trials, although accurate in their context, are time-consuming and expensive to conduct for individual species. Some ex situ techniques for estimating seed life expectancy have been proposed, but these fail to simulate the environmental complexity of the field. Also, it has been questioned whether techniques such as the controlled aging test (CAT) are useful indicators of field persistence. This study aimed to test the validity of the standard CAT (seed aging at 45 C and 60% relative humidity) in use at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, U.K., for predicting field seed-persistence. Comparison of seed persistence and CAT data for 27 northwest European species suggested a significant positive correlation of 0.31. Subsequently, 13 species of emerging and common weeds of Queensland were assessed for their seed longevity using the CAT. The seed longevity data of these species in the CAT were linked with field seed-persistence data according to three broad seed-persistence categories: <1 yr, 1 to 3 yr, and >3 yr. We discuss the scope for using the CAT as a tool for rapid assignment of species to these categories. There is a need for further studies that compare predictions of seed persistence based on the CAT with seed persistence in the field for a larger range of species and environments.

Studies of working memory in interrupted human-computer interaction

Distraction in the workplace is increasingly more common in the information age. Several tasks and sources of information compete for a worker's limited cognitive capacities in human-computer interaction (HCI). In some situations even very brief interruptions can have detrimental effects on memory. Nevertheless, in other situations where persons are continuously interrupted, virtually no interruption costs emerge. This dissertation attempts to reveal the mental conditions and causalities differentiating the two outcomes. The explanation, building on the theory of long-term working memory (LTWM; Ericsson and Kintsch, 1995), focuses on the active, skillful aspects of human cognition that enable the storage of task information beyond the temporary and unstable storage provided by short-term working memory (STWM). Its key postulate is called a retrieval structure an abstract, hierarchical knowledge representation built into long-term memory that can be utilized to encode, update, and retrieve products of cognitive processes carried out during skilled task performance. If certain criteria of practice and task processing are met, LTWM allows for the storage of large representations for long time periods, yet these representations can be accessed with the accuracy, reliability, and speed typical of STWM. The main thesis of the dissertation is that the ability to endure interruptions depends on the efficiency in which LTWM can be recruited for maintaing information. An observational study and a field experiment provide ecological evidence for this thesis. Mobile users were found to be able to carry out heavy interleaving and sequencing of tasks while interacting, and they exhibited several intricate time-sharing strategies to orchestrate interruptions in a way sensitive to both external and internal demands. Interruptions are inevitable, because they arise as natural consequences of the top-down and bottom-up control of multitasking. In this process the function of LTWM is to keep some representations ready for reactivation and others in a more passive state to prevent interference. The psychological reality of the main thesis received confirmatory evidence in a series of laboratory experiments. They indicate that after encoding into LTWM, task representations are safeguarded from interruptions, regardless of their intensity, complexity, or pacing. However, when LTWM cannot be deployed, the problems posed by interference in long-term memory and the limited capacity of the STWM surface. A major contribution of the dissertation is the analysis of when users must resort to poorer maintenance strategies, like temporal cues and STWM-based rehearsal. First, one experiment showed that task orientations can be associated with radically different patterns of retrieval cue encodings. Thus the nature of the processing of the interface determines which features will be available as retrieval cues and which must be maintained by other means. In another study it was demonstrated that if the speed of encoding into LTWM, a skill-dependent parameter, is slower than the processing speed allowed for by the task, interruption costs emerge. Contrary to the predictions of competing theories, these costs turned out to involve intrusions in addition to omissions. Finally, it was learned that in rapid visually oriented interaction, perceptual-procedural expectations guide task resumption, and neither STWM nor LTWM are utilized due to the fact that access is too slow. These findings imply a change in thinking about the design of interfaces. Several novel principles of design are presented, basing on the idea of supporting the deployment of LTWM in the main task.

NIR model development and robustness in prediction of melon fruit total soluble solids

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) can be used for the on-line, non-invasive assessment of fruit for eating quality attributes such as total soluble solids (TSS). The robustness of multivariate calibration models, based on NIRS in a partial transmittance optical geometry, for the assessment of TSS of intact rockmelons (Cucumis melo) was assessed. The mesocarp TSS was highest around the fruit equator and increased towards the seed cavity. Inner mesocarp TSS levels decreased towards both the proximal and distal ends of the fruit, but more so towards the proximal end. The equatorial region of the fruit was chosen as representative of the fruit for near infrared assessment of TSS. The spectral window for model development was optimised at 695-1045 nm, and the data pre-treatment procedure was optimised to second-derivative absorbance without scatter correction. The 'global' modified partial least squares (MPLS) regression modelling procedure of WINISI (ver. 1.04) was found to be superior with respect to root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) and bias for model predictions of TSS across seasons, compared with the 'local' MPLS regression procedure. Updating of the model with samples selected randomly from the independent validation population demonstrated improvement in both RMSEP and bias with addition of approximately 15 samples.