Analysis of Transmission System Adequacy Considering the Constrained Fuzzy Power Flow

Power flow calculations are one of the most important tools for power system planning and operation. The need to account for uncertainties when performing power flow studies led, among others methods, to the development of the fuzzy power flow (FPF). This kind of models is especially interesting when a scarcity of information exists, which is a common situation in liberalized power systems (where generation and commercialization of electricity are market activities). In this framework, the symmetric/constrained fuzzy power flow (SFPF/CFPF) was proposed in order to avoid some of the problems of the original FPF model. The SFPF/CFPF models are suitable to quantify the adequacy of transmission network to satisfy “reasonable demands for the transmission of electricity” as defined, for instance, in the European Directive 2009/72/EC. In this work it is illustrated how the SFPF/CFPF may be used to evaluate the impact on the adequacy of a transmission system originated by specific investments on new network elements

Modelling and predictive control techniques for building heating systems

Model predictive control (MPC) has often been referred to in literature as a potential method for more efficient control of building heating systems. Though a significant performance improvement can be achieved with an MPC strategy, the complexity introduced to the commissioning of the system is often prohibitive. Models are required which can capture the thermodynamic properties of the building with sufficient accuracy for meaningful predictions to be made. Furthermore, a large number of tuning weights may need to be determined to achieve a desired performance. For MPC to become a practicable alternative, these issues must be addressed. Acknowledging the impact of the external environment as well as the interaction of occupants on the thermal behaviour of the building, in this work, techniques have been developed for deriving building models from data in which large, unmeasured disturbances are present. A spatio-temporal filtering process was introduced to determine estimates of the disturbances from measured data, which were then incorporated with metaheuristic search techniques to derive high-order simulation models, capable of replicating the thermal dynamics of a building. While a high-order simulation model allowed for control strategies to be analysed and compared, low-order models were required for use within the MPC strategy itself. The disturbance estimation techniques were adapted for use with system-identification methods to derive such models. MPC formulations were then derived to enable a more straightforward commissioning process and implemented in a validated simulation platform. A prioritised-objective strategy was developed which allowed for the tuning parameters typically associated with an MPC cost function to be omitted from the formulation by separation of the conflicting requirements of comfort satisfaction and energy reduction within a lexicographic framework. The improved ability of the formulation to be set-up and reconfigured in faulted conditions was shown.

Modelling and control of a floating oscillating water column

A novel numerical model of a Bent Backwards Duct Buoy (BBDB) Oscillating Water Column (OWC) Wave Energy Converter was created based on existing isolated numerical models of the different energy conversion systems utilised by an OWC. The novel aspect of this numerical model is that it incorporates the interdependencies of the different power conversion systems rather than modelling each system individually. This was achieved by accounting for the dynamic aerodynamic damping caused by the changing turbine rotational velocity by recalculating the turbine damping for each simulation sample and applying it via a feedback loop. The accuracy of the model was validated using experimental data collected during the Components for Ocean Renewable Energy Systems (CORES) EU FP-7 project that was tested in Galway Bay, Ireland. During the verification process, it was discovered that the model could also be applied as a valuable tool when troubleshooting device performance. A new turbine was developed and added to a full scale model after being investigated using Computational Fluid Dynamics. The energy storage capacity of the impulse turbine was investigated by modelling the turbine with both high and low inertia and applying three turbine control theories to the turbine using the full scale model. A single Maximum Power Point Tracking algorithm was applied to the low-inertia turbine, while both a fixed and dynamic control algorithm was applied to the high-inertia turbine. These results suggest that the highinertia turbine could be used as a flywheel energy storage device that could help minimize output power variation despite the low operating speed of the impulse turbine. This research identified the importance of applying dynamic turbine damping to a BBDB OWC numerical model, revealed additional value of the model as a device troubleshooting tool, and found that an impulse turbine could be applied as an energy storage system.

Modelling the relationship between biomechanics and performance of young sprinting swimmers

The aim of this study was to compute a swimming performance confirmatory model based on biomechanical parameters. The sample included 100 young swimmers (overall: 12.3 ± 0.74 years; 49 boys: 12.5 ± 0.76 years; 51 girls: 12.2 ± 0.71 years; both genders in Tanner stages 1–2 by self-report) participating on a regular basis in regional and national-level events. The 100 m freestyle event was chosen as the performance indicator. Anthropometric (arm span), strength (throwing velocity), power output (power to overcome drag), kinematic (swimming velocity) and efficiency (propelling efficiency) parameters were measured and included in the model. The path-flow analysis procedure was used to design and compute the model. The anthropometric parameter (arm span) was excluded in the final model, increasing its goodness-of-fit. The final model included the throw velocity, power output, swimming velocity and propelling efficiency. All links were significant between the parameters included, but the throw velocity–power output. The final model was explained by 69% presenting a reasonable adjustment (model’s goodness-of-fit; x2/df = 3.89). This model shows that strength and power output parameters do play a mediator and meaningful role in the young swimmers’ performance.

Applying fuzzy logic to comparative distribution modelling: a case study with two sympatric amphibians.

We modelled the distributions of two toads (Bufo bufo and Epidalea calamita) in the Iberian Peninsula using the favourability function, which makes predictions directly comparable for different species and allows fuzzy logic operations to relate different models. The fuzzy intersection between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of both species simultaneously, was compared with another favourability model built on the presences shared by both species. The fuzzy union between individual models, representing favourability for the presence of any of the two species, was compared with another favourabilitymodel based on the presences of either or both of them. The fuzzy intersections between favourability for each species and the complementary of favourability for the other (corresponding to the logical operation “A and not B”) were compared with models of exclusive presence of one species versus the exclusive presence of the other. The results of modelling combined species data were highly similar to those of fuzzy logic operations between individual models, proving fuzzy logic and the favourability function valuable for comparative distribution modelling. We highlight several advantages of fuzzy logic over other forms of combining distribution models, including the possibility to combine multiple species models for management and conservation planning.

Occurrence and abundance models of threatened plant species: Applications to mitigate the impact of hydroelectric power dams

Species occurrence and abundance models are important tools that can be used in biodiversity conservation, and can be applied to predict or plan actions needed to mitigate the environmental impacts of hydropower dams. In this study our objectives were: (i) to model the occurrence and abundance of threatened plant species, (ii) to verify the relationship between predicted occurrence and true abundance, and (iii) to assess whether models based on abundance are more effective in predicting species occurrence than those based on presence–absence data. Individual representatives of nine species were counted within 388 randomly georeferenced plots (10 m × 50 m) around the Barra Grande hydropower dam reservoir in southern Brazil. We modelled their relationship with 15 environmental variables using both occurrence (Generalised Linear Models) and abundance data (Hurdle and Zero-Inflated models). Overall, occurrence models were more accurate than abundance models. For all species, observed abundance was significantly, although not strongly, correlated with the probability of occurrence. This correlation lost significance when zero-abundance (absence) sites were excluded from analysis, but only when this entailed a substantial drop in sample size. The same occurred when analysing relationships between abundance and probability of occurrence from previously published studies on a range of different species, suggesting that future studies could potentially use probability of occurrence as an approximate indicator of abundance when the latter is not possible to obtain. This possibility might, however, depend on life history traits of the species in question, with some traits favouring a relationship between occurrence and abundance. Reconstructing species abundance patterns from occurrence could be an important tool for conservation planning and the management of threatened species, allowing scientists to indicate the best areas for collection and reintroduction of plant germplasm or choose conservation areas most likely to maintain viable populations.

Transferability of environmental favourability models in geographic space: The case of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in Portugal and Spain

Transferring distribution models between different geographical areas may be problematic, as the performance of models outside their original scope is hard to predict. A modelling procedure is needed that gets the gist of the environmental descriptors of a distribution area, without either overfitting to the training data or overestimating the species’ distribution potential.We tested the transferability power of the favourability function, a generalized linear model, on the distribution of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in the Iberian territories of Portugal and Spain.We also tested the effects of two of the main potential constraints on model transferability: the analysed ranges of the predictor variables, and the completeness of the species distribution data. We modelled 10 km×10km presence/absence data from Portugal and Spain separately, extrapolated each model to the other country, and compared predictions with observations. The Spanish model, despite arguably containing more false absences, showed good predictive ability in Portugal. The Portuguese model, whose predictors ranged between only a subset of the values observed in Spain, overestimated desman distribution when transferred.We discuss possible reasons for this differential model behaviour, and highlight the importance of this kind of models for prediction and conservation applications

Distribution modelling of wild rabbit hunting yields in its original area (S Iberian Peninsula)

In this work we used the information of the Annual Hunting Reports (AHRs) to obtain a high-resolution model of the potential favourableness for wild rabbit harvesting in Andalusia (southern Spain), using environmental and land-use variables as predictors. We analysed 32,134 AHRs from the period 1993/2001 reported by 6049 game estates to estimate the average hunting yields of wild rabbit in each Andalusian municipality (n5771). We modelled the favourableness for obtaining good hunting yields using stepwise logistic regression on a set of climatic, orographical, land use, and vegetation variables. The favourability equation was used to create a downscaled image representing the favourableness of obtaining good hunting yields for the wild rabbit in 161 km squares in Andalusia, using the Idrisi Image Calculator. The variables that affected hunting yields of wild rabbit were altitude, dry wood crops (mainly olive groves, almond groves, and vineyards), temperature, pasture, slope, and annual number of frost days. The 161 km squares with high favourableness values are scattered throughout the territory, which seems to be caused mainly by the effect of vegetation. Finally, we obtained quality categories for the territory by combining the probability values given by logistic regression with those of the environmental favourability function.

Modelling and studies of the spectral response of some optoelectronic components

Solar radiation takes in today's world, an increasing importance. Different devices are used to carry out spectral and integrated measurements of solar radiation. Thus the sensors can be divided into the fallow types: Calorimetric, Thermomechanical, Thermoelectric and Photoelectric. The first three categories are based on components converting the radiation to temperature (or heat) and then into electrical quantity. On the other hand, the photoelectric sensors are based on semiconductor or optoelectronic elements that when irradiated change their impedance or generate a measurable electric signal. The response function of the sensor element depends not only on the intensity of the radiation but also on its wavelengths. The radiation sensors most widely used fit in the first categories, but thanks to the reduction in manufacturing costs and to the increased integration of electronic systems, the use of the photoelectric-type sensors became more interesting. In this work we present a study of the behavior of different optoelectronic sensor elements. It is intended to verify the static response of the elements to the incident radiation. We study the optoelectronic elements using mathematical models that best fit their response as a function of wavelength. As an input to the model, the solar radiation values are generated with a radiative transfer model. We present a modeling of the spectral response sensors of other types in order to compare the behavior of optoelectronic elements with other sensors currently in use.

Power Quality Evaluation of a Photovoltaic System on an Electric Grid

This paper focuses on tests of photovoltaic systems in order to address two case studies with silicon monocrystalline and silicon polycrystalline panels, respectively. The first case is an identification of the three parameters of the single-diode equivalent circuit for modelling photovoltaic systems with conclusion about the inevitably age degradation. A comparison between experimental observed and computed I-V and V-P characteristics curves is carried out at standard test conditions. The second case is an experimental observation on a photovoltaic system connected to an electric grid in what regards the quality of the energy injected into the grid. A measuring of the harmonic content in the voltage and in the current waveforms at the terminals of the photovoltaic system is carried out in order to conclude about the conformity with the Standard EN 50160 and the IEEE 519-1992, respectively.

Harnessing the power of Drosophila model to obtain new insights on MYC and ABCC1 cellular functions: from neuroblastoma to autism spectrum disorder

MYCN amplification is a genetic hallmark of the childhood tumour neuroblastoma. MYCN-MAX dimers activate the expression of genes promoting cell proliferation. Moreover, MYCN seems to transcriptionally repress cell differentiation even in absence of MAX. We adopted the Drosophila eye as model to investigate the effect of high MYC to MAX expression ratio on cells. We found that dMyc overexpression in eye cell precursors inhibits cell differentiation and induces the ectopic expression of Antennapedia (the wing Hox gene). The further increase of MYC/MAX ratio results in an eye-to-wing homeotic transformation. Notably, dMyc overexpression phenotype is suppressed by low levels of transcriptional co-repressors and MYCN associates to the promoter of Deformed (the eye Hox gene) in proximity to repressive sites. Hence, we envisage that, in presence of high MYC/MAX ratio, the “free MYC” might inhibit Deformed expression, leading in turn to the ectopic expression of Antennapedia. This suggests that MYCN might reinforce its oncogenic role by affecting the physiological homeotic program. Furthermore, poor neuroblastoma outcome associates with a high level of the MRP1 protein, encoded by the ABCC1 gene and known to promote drug efflux in cancer cells. Intriguingly, this correlation persists regardless of chemotherapy and ABCC1 overexpression enhances neuroblastoma cell motility. We found that Drosophila dMRP contributes to the adhesion between the dorsal and ventral epithelia of the wing by inhibiting the function of integrin receptors, well known regulators of cell adhesion and migration. Besides, integrins play a crucial role during synaptogenesis and ABCC1 locus is included in a copy number variable region of the human genome (16p13.11) involved in neuropsychiatric diseases. Interestingly, we found that the altered dMRP/MRP1 level affects nervous system development in Drosophila embryos. These preliminary findings point out novel ABCC1 functions possibly defining ABCC1 contribution to neuroblastoma and to the pathogenicity of 16p13.11 deletion/duplication

Development and testing of innovative methodologies for modelling and control of normal and knocking combustion and implementation of novel rapid prototyping solutions

The thesis work deals with topics that led to the development of innovative control-oriented models and control algorithms for modern gasoline engines. Knock in boosted spark ignition engines is the widest topic discussed in this document because it remains one of the most limiting factors for maximizing combustion efficiency in this kind of engine. First chapter is thus focused on knock and a wide literature review is proposed to summarize the preliminary knowledge that even represents the background and the reference for discussed activities. Most relevant results achieved during PhD course in the field of knock modelling and control are then presented, describing every control-oriented model that led to the development of an adaptive model-based combustion control system. The complete controller has been developed in the context of the collaboration with Ferrari GT and it allowed to completely redefine the knock intensity evaluation as well as the combustion phase control. The second chapter is focused on the activity related to a prototyping Port Water Injection system that has been developed and tested on a turbocharged spark ignition engine, within the collaboration with Magneti Marelli. Such system and the effects of injected water on the combustion process were then modeled in a 1-D simulation environment (GT Power). Third chapter shows the development and validation of a control-oriented model for the real-time calculation of exhaust gas temperature that represents another important limitation to the performance increase in modern boosted engines. Indeed, modelling of exhaust gas temperature and thermocouple behavior are themes that play a key role in the optimization of combustion and catalyst efficiency.

Numerical modelling of hydrodinamics and morphodynamics for the Friuli Venezia Giulia coast

Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) should be considered as one of the main components to be able to implement sustainable development. Friuli Venezia Giulia region with its 93 km of coastline is committed to investing its resources in projects aimed at studying the evolution of the coast. In this report, reference will be made to the area in front of the municipality of Grado, where the Banco della Mula di Muggia is located. Starting from previous studies and surveys, morphology of the coastal stretch between the municipality of Grado and the mouth of the Isonzo river will be reproduced through numerical modeling tools, to simulate its hydrodynamic behavior on an annual basis and also as a function of significant events such as storms, calm events or floods of the Isonzo river. The software employed will be the MIKE by DHI with in particular the implementation of "Littoral Drift" and "MIKE 21/3" Coupled models. The first to calculate net and gross longshore transport on an annual basis along a transverse profile, the latter is a modelling system for coastal application that will be used for the analysis of significant events effects. Although not primary focus of this work, there will be included an initial review of finger bars. These particular sand formations are present at the south-western border of the Banco della Mula di Muggia and may have an impact on it. This work could form the starting point of future investigations to build on the findings of this report.

Precise Near-Field Focusing exploiting Bessel Beam Launchers for Wireless Power Transfer at millimeter waves

Wireless Power Transfer has become a promising technology to overcome the limits of wired solutions. Within this framework, the objective of this thesis is to study a WPT link at millimeter waves involving a particular type of antenna working in the radiative near-field, known as Bessel Beam (BB) Launcher. This antenna has been chosen for its peculiarity of generating a Bessel Beam which is by nature non-diffractive, showing good focusing and self-healing capabilities. In particular, a Bull-Eye Leaky Wave Antenna is designed and analysed, fed by a loop antenna and resonating at approximately 30 GHz. The structure excites a Hybrid-TE mode showing zeroth-order Bessel function over the z-component of the magnetic field. The same antenna is designed with two different dimensions, showing good wireless power transport properties. The link budgets obtained for different configurations are reported. With the aim of exploiting BB Launchers in wearable applications, a further analysis on the receiving part is conducted. For WPT wearable or implantable devices a reduced dimension of the receiver system must be considered. Therefore, an electrically large loop antenna in planar technology is modified, inserting phase shifters in order to increase the intensity of the magnetic field in its interrogation zone. This is fundamental when a BB Launcher is involved as transmitter. The loop antenna, in reception, shows a further miniaturization level since it is built such that its interrogation zone corresponds to the main beam dimension of transmitting BB Launcher. The link budget is evaluated with the new receiver showing comparable results with respect to previous configurations, showing an efficient WPT link for near-field focusing. Finally, a matching network and a full-wave rectifying circuit are attached to two of the different receiving systems considered. Further analysis will be carried out about the robustness of the square loop over biological tissues.

Analysis of the impact of stationary energy storage systems in trolleybus grids using Simulink-based modelling

The voltage profile of the catenary between traction substations (TSSs) is affected by the trolleybus current intake and by its position with respect to the TSSs: the higher the current requested by the bus and the further the bus from the TSSs, the deeper the voltage drop. When the voltage drops below 500V, the trolleybus is forced to decrease its consumption by reducing its input current. This thesis deals with the analysis of the improvements that the installation of an BESS produces in the operation of a particularly loaded FS of the DC trolleybus network of the city of Bologna. The stationary BESS is charged by the TSSs during off-peak times and delivers the stored energy when the catenary is overloaded alleviating the load on the TSSs and reducing the voltage drops. Only IMC buses are considered in the prospect of a future disposal of all internal combustion engine vehicles. These trolleybuses cause deeper voltage drops because they absorb enough current to power their traction motor and recharge the on board battery. The control of the BESS aims to keep the catenary voltage within the admissible voltage range and makes sure that all physical limitations are met. A model of FS Marconi Trento Trieste is implemented in Simulink environment to simulate its daily operation and compare the behavior of the trolleybus network with and without BESS. From the simulation without BESS, the best location of the energy storage system is deduced, and the battery control is tuned. Furthermore, from the knowledge of the load curve and the battery control trans-characteristic, it is formulated a prediction of the voltage distribution at BESS connection point. The prediction is then compared with the simulation results to validate the Simulink model. The BESS allows to decrease the voltage drops along the catenary, the Joule losses and the current delivered by the TSSs, indicating that the BESS can be a solution to improve the operation of the trolleybus network.