Theory and practice in the field of foresight

Purpose – The paper aims to explore the gap between theory and practice in foresight and to give some suggestions on how to reduce it. Design/methodology/approach – Analysis of practical foresight activities and suggestions are based on a literature review, the author's own research and practice in the field of foresight and futures studies, and her participation in the work of a European project (COST A22). Findings – Two different types of practical foresight activities have developed. One of them, the practice of foresight of critical futures studies (FCFS) is an application of a theory of futures studies. The other, termed here as praxis foresight (PF), has no theoretical basis and responds directly to practical needs. At present a gap can be perceived between theory and practice. PF distinguishes itself from the practice and theory of FCFS and narrows the construction space of futures. Neither FCFS nor PF deals with content issues of the outer world. Reducing the gap depends on renewal of joint discourses and research about experience of different practical foresight activities and manageability of complex dynamics in foresight. Production and feedback of self-reflective and reflective foresight knowledge could improve theory and practice. Originality/value – Contemporary practical foresight activities are analysed and suggestions to reduce the gap are developed in the context of the linkage between theory and practice. This paper is thought provoking for futurists, foresight managers and university researchers.

A sikeres növekedés és innováció feltételei (The condition of successful growth and innovation)

Kutatásukban a szerzők a sikeres innovációs-növekedési stratégiák beazonosítására törekedtek két dimenzió mentén: növekedési erőfeszítés és innovációs erőfeszítés. A sikert mint a radikális innováció piaci bevezetéseként definiálták. A szakirodalom áttekintése és kvalitatív kutatási eredményeink alapján azt találták, hogy a siker feltételei a következők: (1) „felkészültség”, azaz biztos szakmai tudás (know-what); a (2) „gyakorlás”, azaz a folyamatok tökéletes ismerete (know-how); a (3) „tehetséggondozás”, azaz a megfelelő kapcsolati tőke a hiányzó képességek, erőforrások és információk megszerzéséhez (know-who); és végül a (4) „tehetség”, azaz kreativitás, magas asszociációs készség, és innovatív ötletek. A vezető feladata annak felismerése, hogy mikor szükséges lassítania a szervezetre nehezedő növekedési nyomáson. A nyugalmi időszakban továbbra is fontos az innovációs képességek fejlesztése. Következetesen fel kell ismernie, hogy mikor lesz nagyobb a szétaprózott erőforrások és a megosztott figyelem költsége, mint a potenciális hozadéka. _______ In present research the successful innovation-growth strategies are identified along two dimensions: growth effort and innovation effort. The success is defined as the introduction to the market of a radical innovation. After reviewing the literature and conducting a qualitative research, authors found that the threshold condition of success are the followings: (1) “preparation”, that is expertise (know-what); (2) “practice”, that is deep understanding of processes (know-how); (3) “talent support”, that is access to missing resources; and finally (4) “talent”, that is creativity, innovative idea, and high association capability. This is the role of the manager to decide when the organizational growth should be slowed down. While the development of innovation capability is still important in times of slow growth periods, the manager must recognize that the cost of divided attention and fragmented resources is higher, than the potential return of the innovation.

The effects of attribute quality information and sources of information on consumers' perceptions and behavior: A model of Pre-purchase Information Utilization in Service Physical Environments

The search-experience-credence framework from economics of information, the human-environment relations models from environmental psychology, and the consumer evaluation process from services marketing provide a conceptual basis for testing the model of "Pre-purchase Information Utilization in Service Physical Environments." The model addresses the effects of informational signs, as a dimension of the service physical environment, on consumers' perceptions (perceived veracity and perceived performance risk), emotions (pleasure) and behavior (willingness to buy). The informational signs provide attribute quality information (search and experience) through non-personal sources of information (simulated word-of-mouth and non-personal advocate sources).^ This dissertation examines: (1) the hypothesized relationships addressed in the model of "Pre-purchase Information Utilization in Service Physical Environments" among informational signs, perceived veracity, perceived performance risk, pleasure, and willingness to buy, and (2) the effects of attribute quality information and sources of information on consumers' perceived veracity and perceived performance risk.^ This research is the first in-depth study about the role and effects of information in service physical environments. Using a 2 x 2 between subjects experimental research procedure, undergraduate students were exposed to the informational signs in a simulated service physical environment. The service physical environments were simulated through color photographic slides.^ The results of the study suggest that: (1) the relationship between informational signs and willingness to buy is mediated by perceived veracity, perceived performance risk and pleasure, (2) experience attribute information shows higher perceived veracity and lower perceived performance risk when compared to search attribute information, and (3) information provided through simulated word-of-mouth shows higher perceived veracity and lower perceived performance risk when compared to information provided through non-personal advocate sources. ^

The eye of the beholder: The impact of a district implementation plan of state mandates as perceived by the implementers

The purpose of this inquiry was to investigate the impact of a large, urban school district's experience in implementing a mandated school improvement plan and to examine how that plan was perceived, interpreted, and executed by those charged with the task. The research addressed the following questions: First, by whom was the district implementation plan designed, and what factors were considered in its construction? Second, what impact did the district implementation plan have on those charged with its implementation? Third, what impact did the district plan have on the teaching and learning practices of a particular school? Fourth, what aspects of the implemention plan were perceived as most and least helpful by school personnel in achieving stated goals? Last, what were the intended and unintended consequences of an externally mandated and directed plan for improving student achievement? The implementation process was measured against Fullan's model as expounded upon in The Meaning of Educational Change (1982) and The New Meaning of Educational Change (1990). The Banya implementation model (1993), because it added a dimension not adequately addressed by Fullan, was also considered.^ A case study was used as the methodological framework of this qualitative study. Sources of data used in this inquiry included document analysis, participant observations in situ, follow-up interviews, the "long" interview, and triangulation. The study was conducted over a twelve-month period. Findings were obtained from the content analysis of interview transcripts of multiple participants. Results were described and interpreted using the Fullan and Banya models as the descriptive framework. A cross-case comparison of the multiple perspectives of the same phenomena by various participants was constructed.^ The study concluded that the school district's implementation plan to improve student achievement was closely aligned to Fullan's model, although not intentionally. The research also showed that where there was common understanding at all levels of the organization as to the expectations for teachers, level of support to be provided, and availability of resources, successful implementation occured. The areas where successful implementation did not occur were those where the complexity of the changes were underestimated and processes for dealing with unintended consequences were not considered or adequately addressed. The unique perspectives of the various participants, from the superintendent to the classroom teacher, are described. Finally, recommendations for enhancement of implementation are offered and possible topics for further research studies are postulated. ^

Causal attributions for success or failure by passing and failing students in College Algebra

Success in mathematics has been identified as a predictor of baccalaureate degree completion. Within the coursework of college mathematics, College Algebra has been identified as a high-risk course due to its low success rates. ^ Research in the field of attribution theory and academic achievement suggests a relationship between a student's attributional style and achievement. Theorists and researchers contend that attributions influence individual reactions to success and failure. They also report that individuals use attributions to explain and justify their performance. Studies in mathematics education identify attribution theory as the theoretical orientation most suited to explain academic performance in mathematics. This study focused on the relationship among a high risk course, low success rates, and attribution by examining the difference in the attributions passing and failing students gave for their performance in College Algebra. ^ The methods for the study included a pilot administration of the Causal Dimension Scale (CDSII) which was used to conduct reliability and principal component analyses. Then, students (n = 410) self-reported their performance on an in-class test and attributed their performance along the dimensions of locus of causality, stability, personal controllability, and external controllability. They also provided open-ended attribution statements to explain the cause of their performance. The quantitative data compared the passing and failing groups and their attributions for performance on a test using One-Way ANOVA and Pearson chi square procedures. The open-ended attribution statements were coded in relation to ability, effort, task difficulty, and luck and compared using a Pearson chi square procedure. ^ The results of the quantitative data comparing passing and failing groups and their attributions along the dimensions measured by the CDSII indicated statistical significance in locus of causality, stability, and personal controllability. The results comparing the open-ended attribution statements indicated statistical significance in the categories of effort and task difficulty. ^

Location management and routing in urban vehicular ad hoc networks

In recent years, urban vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) are gaining importance for inter-vehicle communication, because they allow for the local communication between vehicles without any infrastructure, configuration effort, and without expensive cellular networks. But such architecture may increase the complexity of routing since there is no central control system in urban VANETs. Therefore, a challenging research task is to improve urban VANETs' routing efficiency. ^ Hence, in this dissertation we propose two location-based routing protocols and a location management protocol to facilitate location-based routing in urban VANETs. The Multi-hop Routing Protocol (MURU) is proposed to make use of predicted mobility and geometry map in urban VANETs to estimate a path's life time and set up robust end-to-end routing paths. The Light-weight Routing Protocol (LIRU) is proposed to take advantage of the node diversity under dynamic channel condition to exploit opportunistic forwarding to achieve efficient data delivery. A scalable location management protocol (MALM) is also proposed to support location-based routing protocols in urban VANETs. MALM uses high mobility in VANETs to help disseminate vehicles' historical location information, and a vehicle is able to implement Kalman-filter based predicted to predict another vehicle's current location based on its historical location information. ^

Measuring effectiveness in international financial crime prevention: Can we agree on a performance metric?

The attempts at carrying out terrorist attacks have become more prevalent. As a result, an increasing number of countries have become particularly vigilant against the means by which terrorists raise funds to finance their draconian acts against human life and property. Among the many counter-terrorism agencies in operation, governments have set up financial intelligence units (FIUs) within their borders for the purpose of tracking down terrorists’ funds. By investigating reported suspicious transactions, FIUs attempt to weed out financial criminals who use these illegal funds to finance terrorist activity. The prominent role played by FIUs means that their performance is always under the spotlight. By interviewing experts and conducting surveys of those associated with the fight against financial crime, this study investigated perceptions of FIU performance on a comparative basis between American and non-American FIUs. The target group of experts included financial institution personnel, civilian agents, law enforcement personnel, academicians, and consultants. Questions for the interview and surveys were based on the Kaplan and Norton’s Balanced Scorecard (BSC) methodology. One of the objectives of this study was to help determine the suitability of the BSC to this arena. While FIUs in this study have concentrated on performance by measuring outputs such as the number of suspicious transaction reports investigated, this study calls for a focus on outcomes involving all the parties responsible for financial criminal investigations. It is only through such an integrated approach that these various entities will be able to improve performance in solving financial crime. Experts in financial intelligence strongly believed that the quality and timeliness of intelligence was more important than keeping track of the number of suspicious transaction reports. Finally, this study concluded that the BSC could be appropriately applied to the arena of financial crime prevention even though the emphasis is markedly different from that in the private sector. While priority in the private sector is given to financial outcomes, in this arena employee growth and internal processes were perceived as most important in achieving a satisfactory outcome.

Effects of adolescent depressive symptoms, pubertal development, and interpersonal relationship satisfaction on sexual risk behaviors in adolescent romantic couples

This study examined links between adolescent depressive symptoms, actual pubertal development, perceived pubertal timing relative to one’s peers, adolescent-maternal relationship satisfaction, and couple sexual behavior. Assessments of these variables were made on each couple member separately and then these variables were used to predict the sexual activity of the couple. Participants were drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health; Bearman et al., 1997; Udry, 1997) data set (N = 20,088; aged 12–18 years). Dimensions of adolescent romantic experiences using the total sample were described and then a subsample of romantically paired adolescents ( n = 1,252) were used to test a risk and protective model for predicting couple sexual behavior using the factors noted above. Relevant measures from the Wave 1 Add Health measures were used. Most of the items used in Add Health to assess romantic relationship experiences, adolescent depressive symptoms, pubertal development (actual and perceived), adolescent-maternal relationship satisfaction, and couple sexual behavior were drawn from other national surveys or from scales with well documented psychometric properties. Results demonstrated that romantic relationships are part of most adolescents’ lives and that adolescents’ experiences with these relationships differ markedly by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Further, each respective couple member’s pubertal development, perceived pubertal timing, and maternal relationship satisfaction were useful in predicting sexual risk-promoting and risk-reducing behaviors in adolescent romantic couples. Findings in this dissertation represent an initial step toward evaluating explanatory models of adolescent couple sexual behavior.

Biogeochemical factors affecting the fate and transport of mercury in the terrestrial environment at Oak Ridge, Tennessee

Mercury (Hg) contamination problem in the United Sates has been an important issue due to its potential threat to human and ecological health. This thesis presents a study of two Hg-contaminated sites along the East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) at Oak Ridge. The top soils from the terrestrial areas, along with the soils from three vertical soil horizons at the EFPC bank were sampled and analyzed for total-Hg (THg), methyl-Hg, total-organic-carbon (TOC), and pH. The stream bank soils were also analyzed for the stable-Hg-isotopes (198Hg, 199Hg, 200Hg, 201Hg, and 202Hg). Furthermore, some of the soil samples (n=7) from the same study sites were investigated for phytoavailability of mercury as measured by degree of Hg translocation in aboveground biomass of Impatiens walleriana plants grown in the soils.^ The results showed a significant difference (p<0.001) in THg concentrations for the forest soils (42.40±4.98 mg/kg) and the grassland soils (8.71±2.30 mg/kg). The higher THg and methyl-Hg concentrations were commensurate with the higher TOC content in the soils (p<0.001). Also, the THg concentrations for the upstream site was higher (129.08±34.14 mg/kg) than the downstream site (24.31±3.47 mg/kg). The two sites also differed in their stable Hg isotope compositions (p<0.001 for δ199Hg). The stable isotope analysis indicated the increased level of mass dependent isotopic fractionation with increasing depths along the EFPC bank. The difference between the two study sites was also prominent in case of the Hg uptake by the plants, with higher Hg uptake from the upstream soils compared to that from the downstream soils. A significant correlation, r=0.93 p<0.01, was observed between the Hg uptake and the soil-THg concentrations. THg was higher in the leaves (1161.87±310.01 μg/kg) than in the flowers (206.13±55.23 μg/kg) or the stems (634.54±403.35μg/kg). ^ The level of Hg contamination increased with decreasing distance from the point source and was highly influenced by plants/microbes, soil-organic-content, and Hg-speciation. The isotopic study indicated the existence of an additional Hg source in the EFPC watershed, possibly atmospheric Hg-deposition. These findings are worth taking into account while planning any Hg remediation effort and developing Hg loading criteria as per the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) Program.^

Parental absence and academic achievement in immigrant students

Academic achievement and educational expectations as a function of parental absence were examined among 268 newly immigrant elementary, middle, and high-school students from Spanish-speaking countries. Data collected as part of a longitudinal study of adaptation and achievement in newly immigrant students were analyzed. Participants had varying experiences with parental absence, in terms of length of absence, gender of absent parent, and reason for absence. Reasons for parental absence included parental divorce, parental death, and serial migration, a cause unique to immigrant children. Students who experienced parental absence reported lower educational expectations. Students who experienced the death of a parent had lower achievement scores and lower expectations than students who did not experience parental death. Prolonged absence was also important, with students who experienced parental absence for more than one year performing worse than students who had minimal parental separation. In addition, boys who experienced parental absence because of serial migration performed worse academically than boys who did not have this occurrence. Educational expectations were reduced among students who experienced parental absence as a result of the migratory process, especially for younger students. The extent to which parental absence related to achievement and expectations through potential mediating factors, such as economic hardship, perceived school support, and parental school involvement was assessed with structural equation modeling. Overall, the model was able to explain some of the relationship between parental absence and the academic achievement and educational expectations of immigrant students from Spanish-speaking countries.^

Low-income first time mothers: Effects on advanced practice nurse (APN) follow up telephone calls on maternal and infant health and health care charges

The United States has over 4 million births annually. Currently healthy women with non-complicated deliveries receive little to no routine postpartum support when discharged from the hospital. This is especially problematic if mothers are first time mothers, poor, have language barriers and little to no social support after giving birth. The purpose of this randomized clinical trial was to compare maternal and infant health outcomes, and health care charges between 2 groups of mothers and newborns. A control ( n = 69) group received routine posthospital discharge care. An intervention group (n = 70) received routine posthospital discharge care plus follow up telephone calls by advanced practice nurses (APNs) on days 3,7,14,21,28 and week 8. Both groups were followed for the first 8 weeks posthospital discharge following delivery to examine maternal health outcomes (perceived maternal stress, social support and perceived maternal physical health), infant health outcomes (routine medical follow up visits immunizations, weight gain), morbidity (urgent care visits, emergency room visits, rehospitalizations), health care charges (urgent care visits, emergency room visits, rehospitalizations) in both groups and charges for APN follow up in the intervention group only. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and two-sample t-tests. Study findings indicated that intervention group had significantly lower perceived maternal stress, significantly higher rating of perceived maternal health and higher levels of social support and by the end of the 2nd month posthospital discharge compared to control group mothers. Infants in the intervention group had: increased number of immunizations; fewer emergency room visits; and 1 infant rehospitalization compared to 3 infant rehospitalizations in the control group. The intervention groups' health care charges were significantly lower compared to the control group $14,333/$497 vs. $70,834/$1,068. These study results indicate that an intervention of APN follow up telephone calls in this sample of first time low-income culturally diverse mothers was an effective, safe, low cost, easy to apply intervention which improved mothers' and infants' health outcomes and reduced healthcare charges.

A methodology to estimate time varying user responses to travel time and travel time reliability in a road pricing environment

Road pricing has emerged as an effective means of managing road traffic demand while simultaneously raising additional revenues to transportation agencies. Research on the factors that govern travel decisions has shown that user preferences may be a function of the demographic characteristics of the individuals and the perceived trip attributes. However, it is not clear what are the actual trip attributes considered in the travel decision- making process, how these attributes are perceived by travelers, and how the set of trip attributes change as a function of the time of the day or from day to day. In this study, operational Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) archives are mined and the aggregated preferences for a priced system are extracted at a fine time aggregation level for an extended number of days. The resulting information is related to corresponding time-varying trip attributes such as travel time, travel time reliability, charged toll, and other parameters. The time-varying user preferences and trip attributes are linked together by means of a binary choice model (Logit) with a linear utility function on trip attributes. The trip attributes weights in the utility function are then dynamically estimated for each time of day by means of an adaptive, limited-memory discrete Kalman filter (ALMF). The relationship between traveler choices and travel time is assessed using different rules to capture the logic that best represents the traveler perception and the effect of the real-time information on the observed preferences. The impact of travel time reliability on traveler choices is investigated considering its multiple definitions. It can be concluded based on the results that using the ALMF algorithm allows a robust estimation of time-varying weights in the utility function at fine time aggregation levels. The high correlations among the trip attributes severely constrain the simultaneous estimation of their weights in the utility function. Despite the data limitations, it is found that, the ALMF algorithm can provide stable estimates of the choice parameters for some periods of the day. Finally, it is found that the daily variation of the user sensitivities for different periods of the day resembles a well-defined normal distribution.

The Role of Leadership Style in Employee Engagement

This paper explores the relationship between leadership styles and engagement in the workplace. The competitive global markets are forcing organizations to look past their products and the bottom line and move beyond just employee motivation and towards having an engaged workforce.

Challenge to Managers: Changing Hotel Work from a Secondary Choice to career Development

In his discussion - Challenge To Managers: Changing Hotel Work from a Secondary Choice to Career Development - by Leonidas Chitiris, Lecturer in Management, Piraeus Graduate School of Industrial Studies, Athens, Greece, Chitiris marginally alludes at the outset: “Surveys and interviews with hotel employees in Greece with regard to why individuals work for hotels and to what extent their rationale to join the hotel industry affects hotel productivity revealed that the choice to work in hotels is a secondary preference and reflects the opportunity structure in the economy at any given time and the greater the number of those who work in hotels when there are no other employment opportunities, the less likely the chances for overall improved performance. Given the increase in the proportion of unskilled, unmotivated workers, the level of hotel productivity consequently decreases! The author interprets the findings in terms of the economic and employment conditions in the Greek hotel industry. To enhance the rationale of his thesis statement, Chitiris offers with citation: “Research on initial entry into the labor force has shown that new employees reflect idealized expectations and are frequently not very satisfied with their jobs and roles in the work settings.” Chitiris advances the thought even further by saying: “Research on job satisfaction, motivation, and production purports that management can initiate policies that develop job satisfaction and may improve productivity.” The author outlines components within the general category of the hotel industry to label and quantify exactly why there may be a lag between employee expectations and the delivery of a superior level of service. Please keep in mind that the information for this essay is underpinned by the hotel industry in Greece, exclusively. Demographic information is provided. One example of the many factors parsed in this hotel service discussion is the employee/guest relationship. “The quality of service in hotels is affected to a great extent by the number of guests a hotel employee has to serve,” Chitiris offers. Additionally, Chitiris’ characterization of the typical hotel employee in Greece is not flattering, but it is an informed and representative view of that lodging labor pool. The description in and of itself begs to explain at least some of why the hotel industry in Greece suffers a consequently diminished capacity of superior service. Ill equipped, under-educated, over-worked, and under-paid are how Chitiris describes most employees in the Hellenist hospitality field. Survey based studies, and formulaic indices are used to measure variables related to productivity; the results may be inconclusive industry wide, but are interesting nonetheless. Also, an appealing table gauges the reasons why hotel workers actually employ themselves in the lodging industry. Chirtiris finds that salary expectations do not rate all that high on the motivational chart and are only marginal when related to productivity. In closing, Chirtiris presents a 5-phase development plan hotels should look to in improving performance and productivity at their respective properties.

File Control: The Heart Of Business Computer Management

In his study - File Control: The Heart Of Business Computer Management - William G. O'Brien, Assistant Professor, The School of Hospitality Management at Florida International University, initially informs you: “Even though computers are an everyday part of the hospitality industry, many managers lack the knowledge and experience to control and protect the files in these systems. The author offers guidelines which can minimize or prevent damage to the business as a whole.” Our author initially opens this study with some anecdotal instances illustrating the failure of hospitality managers to exercise due caution with regard to computer supported information systems inside their restaurants and hotels. “Of the three components that make up any business computer system (data files, programs, and hard-ware), it is files that are most important, perhaps irreplaceable, to the business,” O’Brien informs you. O’Brien breaks down the noun, files, into two distinct categories. They are, the files of extrinsic value, and its counterpart the files of intrinsic value. An example of extrinsic value files would be a restaurant’s wine inventory. “As sales are made and new shipments are received, the computer updates the file,” says O’Brien. “This information might come directly from a point-of-sale terminal or might be entered manually by an employee,” he further explains. On the intrinsic side of the equation, O’Brien wants you to know that the information itself is the valuable part of this type of file. Its value is over and above the file’s informational purpose as a pragmatic business tool, as it is in inventory control. “The information is money in the legal sense For instance, figures moved about in banking system computers do not represent dollars; they are dollars,” O’Brien explains. “If the record of a dollar amount is erased from all computer files, then that money ceases to exist,” he warns. This type of information can also be bought and sold, such as it is in customer lists to advertisers. Files must be protected O’Brien stresses. “File security requires a systematic approach,” he discloses. O’Brien goes on to explain important elements to consider when evaluating file information. File back-up is also an important factor to think about, along with file storage/safety concerns. “Sooner or later, every property will have its fire, flood, careless mistake, or disgruntled employee,” O’Brien closes. “…good file control can minimize or prevent damage to the business as a whole.”