Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks. Part 1: a guide to Bayesian parameter estimation using forensic science data

As a thorough aggregation of probability and graph theory, Bayesian networks currently enjoy widespread interest as a means for studying factors that affect the coherent evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Paper I of this series of papers intends to contribute to the discussion of Bayesian networks as a framework that is helpful for both illustrating and implementing statistical procedures that are commonly employed for the study of uncertainties (e.g. the estimation of unknown quantities). While the respective statistical procedures are widely described in literature, the primary aim of this paper is to offer an essentially non-technical introduction on how interested readers may use these analytical approaches - with the help of Bayesian networks - for processing their own forensic science data. Attention is mainly drawn to the structure and underlying rationale of a series of basic and context-independent network fragments that users may incorporate as building blocs while constructing larger inference models. As an example of how this may be done, the proposed concepts will be used in a second paper (Part II) for specifying graphical probability networks whose purpose is to assist forensic scientists in the evaluation of scientific evidence encountered in the context of forensic document examination (i.e. results of the analysis of black toners present on printed or copied documents).

Estimation of the noisy component of anatomical backgrounds.

The knowledge of the relationship that links radiation dose and image quality is a prerequisite to any optimization of medical diagnostic radiology. Image quality depends, on the one hand, on the physical parameters such as contrast, resolution, and noise, and on the other hand, on characteristics of the observer that assesses the image. While the role of contrast and resolution is precisely defined and recognized, the influence of image noise is not yet fully understood. Its measurement is often based on imaging uniform test objects, even though real images contain anatomical backgrounds whose statistical nature is much different from test objects used to assess system noise. The goal of this study was to demonstrate the importance of variations in background anatomy by quantifying its effect on a series of detection tasks. Several types of mammographic backgrounds and signals were examined by psychophysical experiments in a two-alternative forced-choice detection task. According to hypotheses concerning the strategy used by the human observers, their signal to noise ratio was determined. This variable was also computed for a mathematical model based on the statistical decision theory. By comparing theoretical model and experimental results, the way that anatomical structure is perceived has been analyzed. Experiments showed that the observer's behavior was highly dependent upon both system noise and the anatomical background. The anatomy partly acts as a signal recognizable as such and partly as a pure noise that disturbs the detection process. This dual nature of the anatomy is quantified. It is shown that its effect varies according to its amplitude and the profile of the object being detected. The importance of the noisy part of the anatomy is, in some situations, much greater than the system noise. Hence, reducing the system noise by increasing the dose will not improve task performance. This observation indicates that the tradeoff between dose and image quality might be optimized by accepting a higher system noise. This could lead to a better resolution, more contrast, or less dose.

High commitment of embryonic keratinocytes to terminal differentiation through a Notch1-caspase 3 regulatory mechanism.

Embryonic cells are expected to possess high growth/differentiation potential, required for organ morphogenesis and expansion during development. However, little is known about the intrinsic properties of embryonic epithelial cells due to difficulties in their isolation and cultivation. We report here that pure keratinocyte populations from E15.5 mouse embryos commit irreversibly to differentiation much earlier than newborn cells. Notch signaling, which promotes keratinocyte differentiation, is upregulated in embryonic keratinocyte and epidermis, and elevated caspase 3 expression, which we identify as a transcriptional Notch1 target, accounts in part for the high commitment of embryonic keratinocytes to terminal differentiation. In vivo, lack of caspase 3 results in increased proliferation and decreased differentiation of interfollicular embryonic keratinocytes, together with decreased activation of PKC-delta, a caspase 3 substrate which functions as a positive regulator of keratinocyte differentiation. Thus, a Notch1-caspase 3 regulatory mechanism underlies the intrinsically high commitment of embryonic keratinocytes to terminal differentiation.

Le temps partagé dans la jouissance de la propriété par étages : étude de la copropriété spatio-temporelle sur une part d'étage

Introduction : Depuis plusieurs années, la pratique a développé une nouvelle forme d'utilisation de la propriété immobilière : le time-sharing, que l'on appelle aussi couramment propriété en temps partagé ou multipropriété. Son objectif est de permettre à plusieurs personnes de bénéficier du même logement de vacances en prévoyant une répartition temporelle de leur usage. Actuellement, il n'existe dans le système juridique suisse aucune disposition légale qui traite expressément du time-sharing, mais ce concept peut être valablement établi sur la base du droit en vigueur en ayant recours à différentes constructions. En effet, le droit contractuel, le droit des sociétés et les droits réels sont autant de moyens utilisés par la pratique pour atteindre le but fixé. Le choix entre ces diverses alternatives n'est toutefois pas anodin, car il détermine de manière directe la position juridique du time-sharer vis-à-vis des tiers et des personnes qui font partie de la même structure que lui. Le système du time-sharing a suscité un véritable engouement auprès des consommateurs, mais il a également donné lieu à de nombreux abus dont la presse s'est faite l'écho. Pour ces raisons, le législateur envisage aujourd'hui d'introduire des dispositions légales protectrices permettant de délimiter précisément les droits et obligations dont le time-sharer acquiert la titularité. Cette intervention législative ne consiste toutefois pas en une réglementation du time-sharing, mais uniquement en l'élaboration de normes générales qui doivent s'appliquer lors de la conclusion du contrat d'acquisition et qui se veulent compatibles avec les différentes constructions juridiques possibles. Nous avons choisi, pour la présente étude, d'examiner les possibilités qu'offrent les droits réels pour établir le partage de la jouissance d'un appartement et d'analyser la construction qui assure au consommateur la position la plus stable : celle de copropriétaire d'une part de propriété par étages. Les caractéristiques propres au time-sharing qui nous intéresse sont ainsi les suivantes : 1) Le time-sharer est un véritable propriétaire immobilier. Le droit de propriété assure une position forte à son titulaire qui bénéficie alors de tous les attributs et toutes les garanties de ce droit absolu. Mais le fait que plusieurs personnes acquièrent le même objet, nous met en présence du concept de propriété collective qu'il faut analyser afin d'expliquer la construction juridique du time-sharing en droits réels. 2) L'appartement reste toujours le même. L'objectif principal du consommateur est d'acquérir un droit de propriété sur un logement qu'il a lui-même choisi. Nous excluons ainsi les sociétés qui mettent à disposition de leurs membres un choix d'appartements que ce soit contre le versement d'une somme d'argent, par le biais d'un système d'acquisition de points-vacances, ou proportionnellement à l'investissement dans le capital social et le parc immobilier de la société. En outre, bien qu'il soit loisible à tout propriétaire d'entrer en relation avec une société d'échange afin de bénéficier d'un autre appartement, nous n'examinerons pas les rapports juridiques ainsi créés, car ils relèvent du droit contractuel et du droit des sociétés et non des droits réels. 3) L'immeuble est situé en Suisse et il est organisé en propriété par étages avant que les différents appartements qui le constituent ne soient vendus. Malgré le succès connu par le time-sharing hors de nos frontières, nous avons décidé de nous intéresser uniquement au statut réel du time-sharing en droit suisse et non aux divers problèmes qui peuvent surgir en droit international privé face aux contrats passés sous l'empire d'un droit étranger. En outre, comme nous le verrons, la structure de la propriété par étages se révèle être parfaitement adaptée au time-sharing en offrant une organisation élaborée et une communauté bénéficiant de la quasi-personnalité juridique. 4) Il n'y a aucun lien préexistant entre les différents acquéreurs et il n'est, par conséquent, pas nécessaire que l'acquisition de l'appartement se fasse simultanément et de manière collective. Dans la plupart des cas, les acquisitions seront échelonnées dans le temps et les personnes entreront en contact uniquement par le biais de leur logement commun. Le système permet donc une grande indépendance entre les différents membres du time-sharing, autant lors de l'achat que de la revente du droit de jouissance. 5) L'appartement étant vendu à de nombreuses personnes, il est nécessaire de fixer des périodes cycliques de jouissance. Celles-ci sont l'élément essentiel du time-sharing et déterminent le prix de vente par leur durée et par leur situation annuelle en haute saison ou en concordance avec les vacances scolaires. Toutefois, bien d'autres éléments nécessitent d'être règlés au niveau de l'organisation interne pour établir avec précision les droits et obligations de chacun. Le plan de notre étude comporte quatre parties principales qui portent respectivement sur la théorie de la propriété collective, sur les différentes constructions envisageables dans le domaine des droits réels, sur l'organisation de la copropriété fondant le time-sharing et sur l'examen des projets de révisions législatives à la lumière de la copropriété.

Anatomical distribution of areas of preserved cartilage in advanced femorotibial osteoarthritis using CT arthrography (Part 1).

OBJECTIVE: To determine subregions of normal and abnormal cartilage in advanced stages of femorotibial osteoarthritis (OA) by mapping the entire femorotibial joint in a cohort of pre-total knee replacement (TKR) OA knees. DESIGN: We defined an areal subdivision of the femorotibial articular cartilage surface on CT arthrography (CTA), allowing the division of the femorotibial articular surface into multiple (up to n = 204 per knee) subregions and the comparison of the same areas between different knees. Two readers independently classified each cartilage area as normal, abnormal or non-assessable in 41 consecutive pre-TKR OA knees. RESULTS: A total of 6447 cartilage areas (from 41 knees) were considered assessable by both readers. The average proportion of preserved cartilage was lower in the medial femorotibial joint than in the lateral femorotibial joint for both readers (32.0/69.8% and 33.9/68.5% (medial/lateral) for reader 1 and 2 respectively, all P < 0.001). High frequencies of normal cartilage were observed at the posterior aspect of the medial condyle (up to 89%), and the anterior aspect of the lateral femorotibial compartment (up to 100%). The posterior aspect of the medial condyle was the area that most frequently exhibited preserved cartilage in the medial femorotibial joint, contrasting with the high frequency of cartilage lesions in the rest of that compartment. CONCLUSIONS: Cartilage at the posterior aspect of the medial condyle, and at the anterior aspect of the lateral femorotibial compartment, may be frequently preserved in advanced grades of OA.

Structural investigations into the interaction of hemoglobin and part structures with bacterial endotoxins.

An understanding of details of the interaction mechanisms of bacterial endotoxins (lipopolysaccharide, LPS) with the oxygen transport protein hemoglobin is still lacking, despite its high biological relevance. Here, a biophysical investigation into the endotoxin:hemoglobin interaction is presented which comprises the use of various rough mutant LPS as well as free lipid A; in addition to the complete hemoglobin molecule from fetal sheep extract, also the partial structure alpha-chain and the heme-free sample are studied. The investigations comprise the determination of the gel-to-liquid crystalline phase behaviour of the acyl chains of LPS, the ultrastructure (type of aggregate structure and morphology) of the endotoxins, and the incorporation of the hemoglobins into artificial immune cell membranes and into LPS. Our data suggest a model for the interaction between Hb and LPS in which hemoglobins do not react strongly with the hydrophilic or with the hydrophobic moiety of LPS, but with the complete endotoxin aggregate. Hb is able to incorporate into LPS with the longitudinal direction parallel to the lipid A double-layer. Although this does not lead to a strong disturbance of the LPS acyl chain packing, the change of the curvature leads to a slightly conical molecular shape with a change of the three-dimensional arrangement from unilamellar into cubic LPS aggregates. Our previous results show that cubic LPS structures exhibit strong endotoxic activity. The property of Hb on the physical state of LPS described here may explain the observation of an increase in LPS-mediating endotoxicity due to the action of Hb.

Comparison of Creep and Resilient Modulus Laboratory Results with Field Cores, HR-311, Part 3, 1993

This is Part 3 of a study of creep and resilient modulus testing of hot mix asphalt concrete. The creep and resilient modulus testing in Part 1 showed the improved load carrying characteristics of crushed particles. Cores from pavements drilled in Part 2 exhibited a poor correlation with rutting and creep/resilient modulus on pavement with a range of rut depths. The objective of Part 3 was to determine the relationship of creep and resilient modulus for 1) Marshall specimens from laboratory mixing for mix design; 2) Marshall specimens from construction plant mixing; and 3) cores drilled from the hot mixed asphalt pavement. The creep and resilient modulus data from these three sources exhibited substantial variations. No meaningful correlations of the results from these three sources were obtained.

Field Monitoring of Curved Girder Bridges with Integral Abutments, TPF-5(169), 2014

Nationally, there are questions regarding the design, fabrication, and erection of horizontally curved steel girder bridges due to unpredicted girder displacements, fit-up, and locked-in stresses. One reason for the concerns is that up to one-quarter of steel girder bridges are being designed with horizontal curvature. There is also an urgent need to reduce bridge maintenance costs by eliminating or reducing deck joints, which can be achieved by expanding the use of integral abutments to include curved girder bridges. However, the behavior of horizontally curved bridges with integral abutments during thermal loading is not well known nor understood. The purpose of this study was to investigate the behavior of horizontal curved bridges with integral abutment (IAB) and semi-integral abutment bridges (SIAB) with a specific interest in the response to changing temperatures. The long-term objective of this effort is to establish guidelines for the use of integral abutments with curved girder bridges. The primary objective of this work was to monitor and evaluate the behavior of six in-service, horizontally curved, steel-girder bridges with integral and semi-integral abutments. In addition, the influence of bridge curvature, skew and pier bearing (expansion and fixed) were also part of the study. Two monitoring systems were designed and applied to a set of four horizontally curved bridges and two straight bridges at the northeast corner of Des Moines, Iowa—one system for measuring strains and movement under long term thermal changes and one system for measuring the behavior under short term, controlled live loading. A finite element model was developed and validated against the measured strains. The model was then used to investigate the sensitivity of design calculations to curvature, skew and pier joint conditions. The general conclusions were as follows: (1) There were no measurable differences in the behavior of the horizontally curved bridges and straight bridges studied in this work under thermal effects. For preliminary member sizing of curved bridges, thermal stresses and movements in a straight bridge of the same length are a reasonable first approximation. (2) Thermal strains in integral abutment and semi-integral abutment bridges were not noticeably different. The choice between IAB and SIAB should be based on life – cycle costs (e.g., construction and maintenance). (3) An expansion bearing pier reduces the thermal stresses in the girders of the straight bridge but does not appear to reduce the stresses in the girders of the curved bridge. (4) An analysis of the bridges predicted a substantial total stress (sum of the vertical bending stress, the lateral bending stress, and the axial stress) up to 3 ksi due to temperature effects. (5) For the one curved integral abutment bridge studied at length, the stresses in the girders significantly vary with changes in skew and curvature. With a 10⁰ skew and 0.06 radians arc span length to radius ratio, the curved and skew integral abutment bridges can be designed as a straight bridge if an error in estimation of the stresses of 10% is acceptable.

Nonlinear Pile Behavior in Integral Abutment Bridges, HR-227, Part 1, 1982

The highway departments of all fifty states were contacted to find the extent of application of integral abutment bridges, to survey the different guidelines used for analysis and design of integral abutment bridges, and to assess the performance of such bridges through the years. The variation in design assumptions and length limitations among the various states in their approach to the use of integral abutments is discussed. The problems associated with lateral displacements at the abutment, and the solutions developed by the different states for most of the ill effects of abutment movements are summarized in the report. An algorithm based on a state-of-the-art nonlinear finite element procedure was developed and used to study piling stresses and pile-soil interaction in integral abutment bridges. The finite element idealization consists of beam-column elements with geometric and material nonlinearities for the pile and nonlinear springs for the soil. An idealized soil model (modified Ramberg-Osgood model) was introduced in this investigation to obtain the tangent stiffness of the nonlinear spring elements. Several numerical examples are presented in order to establish the reliability of the finite element model and the computer software developed. Three problems with analytical solutions were first solved and compared with theoretical solutions. A 40 ft H pile (HP 10 X 42) in six typical Iowa soils was then analyzed by first applying a horizontal displacement (to simulate bridge motion) and no rotation at the top and then applying a vertical load V incrementally until failure occurred. Based on the numerical results, the failure mechanisms were generalized to be of two types: (a) lateral type failure and (b) vertical type failure. It appears that most piles in Iowa soils (sand, soft clay and stiff clay) failed when the applied vertical load reached the ultimate soil frictional resistance (vertical type failure). In very stiff clays, however, the lateral type failure occurs before vertical type failure because the soil is sufficiently stiff to force a plastic hinge to form in the pile as the specified lateral displacement is applied. Preliminary results from this investigation showed that the vertical load-carrying capacity of H piles is not significantly affected by lateral displacements of 2 inches in soft clay, stiff clay, loose sand, medium sand and dense sand. However, in very stiff clay (average blow count of 50 from standard penetration tests), it was found that the vertical load carrying capacity of the H pile is reduced by about 50 percent for 2 inches of lateral displacement and by about 20 percent for lateral displacement of 1 inch. On the basis of the preliminary results of this investigation, the 265-feet length limitation in Iowa for integral abutment concrete bridges appears to be very conservative.

Paleozoic stratigraphy of the Central and Northern part of the Catalonian Coastal Ranges (NE Spain)

The Paleozoic stratigraphic succession in the Catalonian Coastal Ranges spans the interval from Cambrian(?) to Carboniferous, with only one break, separating the pre-Carboniferous part of the sequence from the Carboniferous. The oldest rocks exposed form a sequence of schists, fine grained sandstones, gneisses (laminar pre-Hercynian intrusions), marbles, orto- and para-amphibolites and calcsilicate rocks. comparison with other localities iuggests an Early Cambrian age (or perhaps in part older). Upwards the sequence becomes more monotonous andconsists only of schists (or slates where themetamorphic grade is lower) and thin fine-grained sandstone layers (Cambrian-Ordovician). Still higher in the sequence, an altemation of greywackes and slates is found, with interlayered mud-supported conglomerates at its lower part and acid volcanic rocks which occur throughout the whole sequence. This part of the sequence has provided the oldest faunas known in the Catalonian Coastal Ranges, which indicate the Caradoc. Finally, in its uppermost part, the Ordovician sequence contains some thin limestone layers that contain Ashgill faunas. The Silurian, from Llandovery to Lower Ludlow, consists of black graptolitic shales with dolerite sills, whilst the upper Ludlow, Pridolian and Devonian consist of nodular limestones and marls withpelagic and hemipelagic faunas. The youngest Devonian faunas found correspond in general to the Emsian. The existence of a gap at this point of the sequence suggests the possibility that part of the Devonian could have been eroded. The Carboniferous is characterized by a thick culm sequence (Visean to Westphalian?), resting on thin chert and limestone layers (Tournaisian and Visean). A comparison with neighbouring areas shows a similarity regarding succession and facies with other Paleozoic massifs around the Western Mediterranean.

Effects of long-term irrigation with treated wastewater. Part I: Evolution of soil physico-chemical properties

The long-term impact of irrigation on a Mediterranean sandy soil irrigated with Treated wastewater (TWW) since 1980 was evaluated. The main soil properties (CEC, pH, size distribution, exchangeable cations and chloride, hydraulic conductivity) as well as the organic matter and Cu, Cr and Pb speciation in an irrigated soil and a non-irrigated control soil at various soil depths were monitored and compared during a 2 years experiment. In this first part, the evolution of the physico-chemical soil properties was described. The irrigation with TWW was beneficial with regard to water and nutrient supplying. All the exchangeable cations other than K(+) were higher in the irrigated soil than in the reference one. A part of the exchangeable cations was not fixed on the exchange complex but stored as labile salts or in concentrated soil solution. Despite the very sandy soil texture, both saturated and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity exhibited a significant diminution in the irrigated soil, but remained high enough to allow water percolation during rainy periods and subsequent leaching of accumulated salts, preventing soil salinization. In the irrigated soil, exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP) exhibited high values (20% on average) and the soil organic C was lower than in the reference. No significant effect was noticed on soil mineralogical composition due to irrigation. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Nonlinear Finite Element Study of Piles in Integral Abutment Bridges, HR-227, Part 2, 1982

The highway departments of the states which use integral abutments in bridge design were contacted in order to study the extent of integral abutment use in skewed bridges and to survey the different guidelines used for analysis and design of integral abutments in skewed bridges. The variation in design assumptions and pile orientations among the various states in their approach to the use of integral abutments on skewed bridges is discussed. The problems associated with the treatment of the approach slab, backfill, and pile cap, and the reason for using different pile orientations are summarized in the report. An algorithm based on a state-of-the-art nonlinear finite element procedure previously developed by the authors was modified and used to study the influence of different factors on behavior of piles in integral abutment bridges. An idealized integral abutment was introduced by assuming that the pile is rigidly cast into the pile cap and that the approach slab offers no resistance to lateral thermal expansion. Passive soil and shear resistance of the cap are neglected in design. A 40-foot H pile (HP 10 X 42) in six typical Iowa soils was analyzed for fully restrained pile head and pinned pile head. According to numerical results, the maximum safe length for fully restrained pile head is one-half the maximum safe length for pinned pile head. If the pile head is partially restrained, the maximum safe length will lie between the two limits. The numerical results from an investigation of the effect of predrilled oversized holes indicate that if the length of the predrilled oversized hole is at least 4 feet below the ground, the vertical load-carrying capacity of the H pile is only reduced by 10 percent for 4 inches of lateral displacement in very stiff clay. With no predrilled oversized hole, the pile failed before the 4-inch lateral displacement was reached. Thus, the maximum safe lengths for integral abutment bridges may be increased by predrilling. Four different typical Iowa layered soils were selected and used in this investigation. In certain situations, compacted soil (> 50 blow count in standard penetration tests) is used as fill on top of natural soil. The numerical results showed that the critical conditions will depend on the length of the compacted soil. If the length of the compacted soil exceeds 4 feet, the failure mechanism for the pile is similar to one in a layer of very stiff clay. That is, the vertical load-carrying capacity of the H pile will be greatly reduced as the specified lateral displacement increases.