Estimating multi-country VAR models

This paper describes a methodology to estimate the coefficients, to test specification hypothesesand to conduct policy exercises in multi-country VAR models with cross unit interdependencies, unit specific dynamics and time variations in the coefficients. The framework of analysis is Bayesian: a prior flexibly reduces the dimensionality of the model and puts structure on the time variations; MCMC methods are used to obtain posterior distributions; and marginal likelihoods to check the fit of various specifications. Impulse responses and conditional forecasts are obtained with the output of MCMC routine. The transmission of certain shocks across countries is analyzed.

On the origins of electoral systems and political parties. The role of elections in multi-member districts

The old, understudied electoral system composed of multi-member districts, open ballot and plurality rule is presented as the most remote scene of the origin of both political parties and new electoral systems. A survey of the uses of this set of electoral rules in different parts of the world during remote and recent periods shows its wide spread. A model of voting by this electoral system demonstrates that, while it can produce varied and pluralistic representation, it also provides incentives to form factional or partisan candidacies. Famous negative reactions to the emergence of factions and political parties during the 18th and 19th centuries are reinterpreted in this context. Many electoral rules and procedures invented since the second half of the 19th century, including the Australian ballot, single-member districts, limited and cumulative ballots, and proportional representation rules, derived from the search to reduce the effects of the originating multi-member district system in favor of a single party sweep. The general relations between political parties and electoral systems are restated to account for the foundational stage here discussed.

Multi-period vendor managed inventory systems

In this paper we develop two models for an inventory system in which the distributormanages the inventory at the retailers location. These type of systems correspondto the Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) systems described ib the literature. Thesesystems are very common in many different types of industries, such as retailingand manufacturing, although assuming different characteristics.The objective of our model is to minimize total inventory cost for the distributorin a multi-period multi-retailer setting. The inventory system includes holdingand stock-out costs and we study the case whre an additional fixed setup cost ischarged per delivery.We construct a numerical experiment to analyze the model bahavior and observe theimpact of the characteristics of the model on the solutions.

Non-monophyly of the woody bamboos (Bambuseae; Poaceae): a multi-gene region phylogenetic analysis of Bambusoideae s.s.

The taxonomy of Bambusoideae is in a state of flux and phylogenetic studies are required to help resolve systematic issues. Over 60 taxa, representing all subtribes of Bambuseae and related non-bambusoid grasses were sampled. A combined analysis of five plastid DNA regions, trnL intron, trnL-F intergenic spacer, atpB-rbcL intergenic spacer, rps16 intron, and matK, was used to study the phylogenetic relationships among the bamboos in general and the woody bamboos in particular. Within the BEP clade (Bambusoideae s.s., Ehrhartoideae, Pooideae), Pooideae were resolved as sister to Bambusoideae s.s. Tribe Bambuseae, the woody bamboos, as currently recognized were not monophyletic because Olyreae, the herbaceous bamboos, were sister to tropical Bambuseae. Temperate Bambuseae were sister to the group consisting of tropical Bambuseae and Olyreae. Thus, the temperate Bambuseae would be better treated as their own tribe Arundinarieae than as a subgroup of Bambuseae. Within the tropical Bambuseae, neotropical Bambuseae were sister to the palaeotropical and Austral Bambuseae. In addition, Melocanninae were found to be sister to the remaining palaeotropical and Austral Bambuseae. We discuss phylogenetic and morphological patterns of diversification and interpret them in a biogeographic context.

Inventory-routing model, for a multi-period problem with stochastic and deterministic demand

The need for integration in the supply chain management leads us to considerthe coordination of two logistic planning functions: transportation andinventory. The coordination of these activities can be an extremely importantsource of competitive advantage in the supply chain management. The battle forcost reduction can pass through the equilibrium of transportation versusinventory managing costs. In this work, we study the specific case of aninventory-routing problem for a week planning period with different types ofdemand. A heuristic methodology, based on the Iterated Local Search, isproposed to solve the Multi-Period Inventory Routing Problem with stochasticand deterministic demand.

Relatório Final - Consultoria Nacional de Cabo Verde

No âmbito do Projecto de Cooperação Técnica CPLP/FAO, foi criado, por despacho do MADRRM, um Comité Nacional de Coordenação para apresentar um Quadro de Demandas e Propostas do país com vistas ao desenvolvimento de um Programa Regional de Cooperação Sul-Sul e Norte-Sul envolvendo os países da CPLP no domínio da Gestão Sustentável das Terras (GST), no âmbito da UNCCD, com Assessoria Técnica da FAO e do Secretariado da CPLP, e com o apoio de uma Equipa de Consultores Nacionais. A estrutura do Relatório Nacional foi baseada no historial da implementação da UNCCD em Cabo Verde, integrando a problemática da Gestão Sustentável das Terras, e apresenta diferentes temáticas, nomeadamente: O Quadro Institucional e Legislativo relevante, os Actores chaves, as necessidades de reforço de capacidades, os domínios de intervenção relevantes, os arranjos institucionais pertinentes. A degradação das terras e o avanço da desertificação representam um risco real e significativo para as populações nos países da CPLP, incluindo Cabo Verde, as quais enfrentam a ameaça da desertificação com diferentes níveis de intensidade e incidência territorial. Da mesma forma, os países apresentam em diferentes estágios de implementação da UNCCD, reflexos das suas dificuldades em termos de capacidades, estratégias e recursos financeiros para o envolvimento dos diferentes intervenientes. Os Relatórios Nacionais sobre a situação da Desertificação destacam uma sequência de riscos e situações de vulnerabilidades, seguidos de impactos socioeconómicos e estratégias de Adaptação. A análise aponta as possíveis estratégias de adaptação e busca de soluções em Cabo Verde. No contexto da Desertificação e Degradação das Terras, a aptidão dos solos tem uma importância determinante na Gestão Sustentável das Terras. A Identificação do tipo de uso actual das terras deverá ser feita de acordo com as prioridades de intervenção quanto a aptidão dos solos (Agricultura, Biodiversidade, etc…). A delimitação das terras facilita a implementação de políticas e programas de desenvolvimento sustentável. Esse processo tem vindo a tomar corpo em Cabo Verde através do Programa das Áreas Protegidas Terrestres e Marinhas, o que significa um primeiro passo para a implementação de um Programa Nacional de Gestão Sustentável das Terras. O contexto político caracteriza-se por uma evolução positiva a nível de tomada de consciência sobre a sustentabilidade ambiental. Cabo Verde dispõe de um quadro normativo, amplo e abrangente no Sector do Ambiente. No entanto, as leis e seus regulamentos são acentuadamente complexos, com um elevado grau de tecnicidade, o que os torna de difícil entendimento para grande parte da comunidade que chega a ter acesso a um ou outro instrumento legal de protecção do ambiente e da natureza. Da análise das políticas seguidas durante os últimos anos constata-se que a problemática ambiental ganhou uma nova dimensão, a partir de 1995. Assim, ganhos positivos foram conseguidos, essencialmente no que concerne ao enquadramento institucional e legal. A problemática fundiária reveste-se de grande complexidade em Cabo Verde decorrente não apenas da forma como se dá o acesso à terra como também das relações sociais e de produção do campo, num contexto de um ecossistema frágil e de uma sociedade com graves problemas de pobreza e vulnerabilidade, acentuando os mecanismos de dependência à terra e à actividade agrícola bem como de sujeição no quadro de determinadas relações sociais. No programa do governo e outros instrumentos atribui-se ao ordenamento do território e a gestão integrada dos recursos naturais um lugar estratégico no processo de desenvolvimento de Cabo Verde. O Governo objectiva estimular o surgimento de fileiras competitivas, incluindo a prestação de serviços, em especial o turismo rural, em particular através da articulação com o processo de desenvolvimento de parques naturais e de valorização dos recursos ambientais e conservação da natureza. O Desenvolvimento das Capacidades é um processo de longo prazo que privilegia o fortalecimento endógeno das estruturas nacionais, por conseguinte a visão linear e descontinua dos projectos que tiram recursos/proveitos das estruturas deve ceder o lugar à uma visão mais integrada onde é o projecto que deve se adaptar a estrutura para reforça-la. Assim a implementação de uma Estratégia para o Desenvolvimento das Capacidades na GST deverá passar pela identificação de sequências, nomeadamente: - As capacidades necessárias; - Os tipos de actividades por realizar; - Os actores a serem envolvidos; - As modalidades de desenvolvimento das capacidades. A identificação das Instituições-Chave e definição das competências da Coordenação Nacional do Programa resultou de uma estreita concertação e negociação de todas as partes envolvidas, tendo em consideração o carácter pluridisciplinar e multi-sectorial e transversal da UNCCD. As instituições e/ou equipas nacionais serão envolvidas na implementação das actividades no âmbito da Gestão Sustentável das Terras, e integram um processo de aprendizagem de “Job-training” favorecendo a aquisição de conhecimentos e saber - fazer, através de trabalhos sobre os diferentes engajamentos da UNCCD. A degradação dos solos e práticas de gestão insustentável das terras estão entre os maiores desafios ambientais do mundo de hoje, o que constitui também um importante obstáculo para a satisfação das necessidades básicas da humanidade, especialmente em zonas áridas. A Degradação das Terras aumenta a vulnerabilidade das populações perante as alterações e mudanças climáticas, reduzindo as actividades rurais, diminuindo a produtividade agrícola, favorecendo a vulnerabilidade nas produções, reduzindo os recursos naturais locais; A Gestão Sustentável das Terras pode reduzir a vulnerabilidade às Mudanças Climáticas, aumentar as capacidades das populações na adaptação às Mudanças Climáticas, e em muitos casos, pode contribuir para a mitigação das Mudanças Climáticas através do aumento da sequestração do carbono e redução da emissão de gases. No contexto actual não existem Programas/Projectos específicos para a Gestão Sustentável das Terras, mas há Programas/Projectos Maiores que integram a Componente Luta contra a Desertificação como estratégia de implementação. A visão linear e descontínua dos projectos que tiram recursos/proveitos das estruturas deve ceder o lugar para uma visão mais integrada onde é o projecto que deve se adaptar a estrutura para reforça-la. Considerando um vasto leque de Programas/Projectos em “Pipeline”, em varias áreas relacionadas com UNCCD/GST no país, optou-se por fazer uma Priorização dos Domínios de intervenção de acordo com os Recursos Financeiros e Capacidades Nacionais. Foram propostos 5 Eixos (Gestão Sustentável dos Recursos Naturais, Fortalecimento Institucional, Comunicação e Cidadania, Parcerias e Sinergias, Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnológico), estruturados em 7 Domínios de intervenção (Apoio na GST, Desenvolvimento Agrosilvo- pastoril, Ordenamento do Território, Sistema de Monitorização e Avaliação, IEC Ambiental, Desenvolvimento das Capacidades para mobilização de fundos e Investigação Inter-disciplinar e Integrada) que integram Projectos de Desenvolvimento. O Desenvolvimento das Capacidades necessita de arranjos institucionais que respondem directamente aos objectivos definidos no Programa GST em Cabo Verde. A elaboração e implementação de um Programa de Gestão Sustentável das Terras exigem um esforço conjunto de articulação e concertação entre os actores/parceiros chaves, e uma intervenção eficiente e eficaz por parte dos mesmos. Perspectiva-se que o alcance dos objectivos traçados no âmbito do Programa só será possível através de uma actuação eficaz de cada actor envolvido e da sinergia resultante da interacção entre as instituições. A parceria é fundamental tendo em conta a transversalidade da Gestão Sustentável das Terras (GST). Em consequência, as diferentes instituições (actores/parceiros) devem ser implicadas de modo a participarem nas actividades habilitantes de planificação e criação de capacidades endógenas, nos diferentes domínios prioritários da GST que facilitarão a aplicação de medidas de reacção eficazes, conforme o estabelecido nas Convenções do Rio, nomeadamente a UNCCD.

Optimization of multiclass queueing networks with changeover times via the achievable region method: Part II, the multi-station case

We address the problem of scheduling a multi-station multiclassqueueing network (MQNET) with server changeover times to minimizesteady-state mean job holding costs. We present new lower boundson the best achievable cost that emerge as the values ofmathematical programming problems (linear, semidefinite, andconvex) over relaxed formulations of the system's achievableperformance region. The constraints on achievable performancedefining these formulations are obtained by formulatingsystem's equilibrium relations. Our contributions include: (1) aflow conservation interpretation and closed formulae for theconstraints previously derived by the potential function method;(2) new work decomposition laws for MQNETs; (3) new constraints(linear, convex, and semidefinite) on the performance region offirst and second moments of queue lengths for MQNETs; (4) a fastbound for a MQNET with N customer classes computed in N steps; (5)two heuristic scheduling policies: a priority-index policy, anda policy extracted from the solution of a linear programmingrelaxation.

Whole brain radiotherapy with a conformational external beam radiation boost for lung cancer patients with 1-3 brain metastasis: a multi institutional study.

BACKGROUND: To determine the outcome of patients with brain metastasis (BM) from lung cancer treated with an external beam radiotherapy boost (RTB) after whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT). METHODS: A total of 53 BM patients with lung cancer were treated sequentially with WBRT and RTB between 1996 and 2008 according to our institutional protocol. Mean age was 58.8 years. The median KPS was 90. Median recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) and graded prognostic assessment (GPA) grouping were 2 and 2.5, respectively. Surgery was performed on 38 (71%) patients. The median number of BM was 1 (range, 1-3). Median WBRT and RTB combined dose was 39 Gy (range, 37.5-54). Median follow-up was 12.0 months. RESULTS: During the period of follow-up, 37 (70%) patients died. The median overall survival (OS) was 14.5 months. Only 13 patients failed in the brain. The majority of patients (n = 29) failed distantly. The 1-year OS, -local control, extracranial failure rates were 61.2%, 75.2% and 60.8%, respectively. On univariate analysis, improved OS was found to be significantly associated with total dose (< or = 39 Gy vs. > 39 Gy; p < 0.01), age < 65 (p < 0.01), absence of extracranial metastasis (p < 0.01), GPA > or = 2.5 (p = 0.01), KPS > or = 90 (p = 0.01), and RPA < 2 (p = 0.04). On multivariate analysis, total dose (p < 0.01) and the absence of extracranial metastasis (p = 0.03) retained statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of lung cancer patients treated with WBRT and RTB progressed extracranially. There might be a subgroup of younger patients with good performance status and no extracranial disease who may benefit from dose escalation after WBRT to the metastatic site.

Multi-stage garnet in the internal Brianconnais basement (Ambin massif, Savoy): New petrological constraints on the blueschist-facies metamorphism in the Western Alps and tectonic implications

Three types of garnet have been distinguished in pelitic schists from an epidote-blueschist-facies unit of the Ambin and South Vanoise Brianconnais massifs on the basis of texture, chemical zoning and mineral inclusion characterization. Type-1 garnet cores with high Mn/Ca ratios are interpreted as pre-Alpine relicts, whereas Type-1 garnet rims, Type-2 inclusion-rich porphyroblasts and smaller Type-3 garnets are Alpine. The latter are all characterized by low Mn/Ca ratios and a coexisting mineral assemblage of blue amphibole, high-Si phengite, epidote and quartz. Prograde growth conditions during Alpine D-1 high-pressure (HP) metamorphism are recorded by a decrease in Mn and increase in Fe (+/-Ca) in the Type-2 garnets, culminating in peak P-T conditions of 14-16 kbar and 500degreesC in the deepest parts of the Ambin dome. The multistage growth history of Type-1 garnets indicates a polymetamorphic history for the Ambin and South Vanoise massifs; unfortunately, no age constraints are available. The new metamorphic constraints on the Alpine event in the massifs define a metamorphic T `gap' between them and their surrounding cover (Brianconnais and upper Schistes Lustres units), which experienced metamorphism only in the stability field of carpholite-lawsonite (T < 400degreesC). These data and supporting structural studies confirm that the Ambin and South Vanoise massifs are slices of `eclogitized' continental crust tectonically extruded within the Schistes Lustres units and Brianconnais covers. The corresponding tectonic contacts with top-to-east movement are responsible for the juxtaposition of lower-grade metamorphic units on the Ambin and South Vanoise massifs.

Modeling complex wells with the multi-scale finite-volume method

In this paper, an extension of the multi-scale finite-volume (MSFV) method is devised, which allows to Simulate flow and transport in reservoirs with complex well configurations. The new framework fits nicely into the data Structure of the original MSFV method,and has the important property that large patches covering the whole well are not required. For each well. an additional degree of freedom is introduced. While the treatment of pressure-constraint wells is trivial (the well-bore reference pressure is explicitly specified), additional equations have to be solved to obtain the unknown well-bore pressure of rate-constraint wells. Numerical Simulations of test cases with multiple complex wells demonstrate the ability of the new algorithm to capture the interference between the various wells and the reservoir accurately. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multi-dimensional approach to bullying

RÉSUMÉ : Le bullying est un type de comportement agressif qu'un élève (ou plusieurs) fait subir à un autre et qui se manifeste par des agressions verbales, physiques et/ou psychologiques. Les caractéristiques du bullying sont la répétitivité d'actions négatives sur le long terme et une relation de pouvoir asymétrique. Pour la victime, ce type de comportement peut avoir des conséquences graves telles qu'échec scolaire, dépression, troubles alimentaires, ou idées suicidaires. De plus, les auteurs de bullying commettent plus de comportements déviants au sein de l'école ou à l'extérieur de cette dernière. La mise en place d'actions ciblées auprès des auteurs de bullying pourrait donc non seulement prévenir une victimisation, mais aussi réduire les actes de délinquance en général. Hormis quelques études locales ou cantonales, aucune recherche nationale auprès d'adolescents n'existait dans le domaine. Ce travail propose de combler cette lacune afin d'obtenir une compréhension suffisante du phénomène qui permet de donner des pistes pour définir des mesures de prévention appropriées. Afin d'appréhender la problématique du bullying dans les écoles secondaires suisses, deux sondages de délinquance juvénile autoreportée ont été effectués. Le premier a eu lieu entre 2003 et 2005 dans le canton de Vaud auprès de plus de 4500 écoliers. Le second a été administré en 2006 dans toute la Suisse et environ 3600 jeunes y ont participé. Les jeunes ont répondu au sondage soit en classe (questionnaire papier) soit en salle d'informatique (questionnaire en ligne). Les jeunes ayant répondu avoir sérieusement harcelé un autre élève est d'environ 7% dans le canton de Vaud et de 4% dans l'échantillon national. Les analyses statistiques ont permis tout d'abord de sélectionner les variables les plus fortement liées au bullying. Les résultats montrent que les jeunes avec un bas niveau d'autocontrôle et ayant une attitude positive envers la violence sont plus susceptibles de commettre des actes de bullying. L'importance des variables environnementales a aussi été démontrée: plus le jeune est supervisé et encadré par des adultes, plus les autorités (école, voisinage) jouent leur rôle de contrôle social en faisant respecter les règles et en intervenant de manière impartiale, moins le jeune risque de commettre des actes de bullying. De plus, l'utilisation d'analyses multiniveaux a permis de montrer l'existence d'effets de l'école sur le bullying. En particulier, le taux de bullying dans une école donnée augmente lorsque les avis des jeunes divergent par rapport à leur perception du climat scolaire. Un autre constat que l'on peut mettre en évidence est que la réaction des enseignants lors de bagarres a une influence différente sur le taux de bullying en fonction de l'établissement scolaire. ABSTRACT : Bullying is the intentional, repetitive or persistent hurting of one pupil by another (or several), where the relationship involves an imbalance of power. Bullying is a type of aggressive behaviour and the act can be verbal, physical and/or psychological. The consequences on the victims are serious: school failure, depressive symptomatology, eating disorders, or suicidal ideation. Moreover, the authors of bullying display more delinquent behaviour within or outside the school. Thus, preventive programmes targeting bullying could not only prevent victimisation, but also reduce delinquency in general. Very little data concerning bullying had been collected in Switzerland and, except some local or cantonal studies, no national research among teenagers existed in the field. This work intends to fill the gap in order to provide sufficient understanding of the phenomenon and to suggest some tracks for defining appropriate measures of prevention. In order to understand the problems of bullying in Swiss secondary schools better, two surveys of self-reported juvenile delinquency were carried out. The first one took place between 2003 and 2005 in the canton Vaud among more than 4500 pupils, the second in 2006 across Switzerland with about 3600 youths taking part. The pupils answered to the survey either in the classroom (paper questionnaire) or in the computer room (online questionnaire). The youths that answered having seriously bullied another pupil are about 7% in canton Vaud and 4% in the national sample. Statistical analyses have selected the variables most strongly related to bullying. The results show that the youths with a low level of self-control and adopting a positive attitude towards violence are more likely to bully others. The importance of the environmental variables was also shown: the more that youth is supervised and monitored by adults, and the more the authorities (school, neighbourhood) play their role of social control by making the rules be respected through intervening in an impartial way, the less the youth bully. Moreover, the use of multilevel analyses permitted to show the existence of effects of the school on bullying. In particular, the rate of bullying in a given school increases when there is a wide variation among students of the same school in their perception of their school climate. Another important aspect concerns teachers' reactions when pupils fight: this variable does not influence the bullying rate to the same extent, and depends on the school.