Adding constrained discontinuities to Gaussian process models of wind fields

Gaussian Processes provide good prior models for spatial data, but can be too smooth. In many physical situations there are discontinuities along bounding surfaces, for example fronts in near-surface wind fields. We describe a modelling method for such a constrained discontinuity and demonstrate how to infer the model parameters in wind fields with MCMC sampling.

Monetary models of exchange rates and sweep programs

Numerous studies find that monetary models of exchange rates cannot beat a random walk model. Such a finding, however, is not surprising given that such models are built upon money demand functions and traditional money demand functions appear to have broken down in many developed countries. In this article, we investigate whether using a more stable underlying money demand function results in improvements in forecasts of monetary models of exchange rates. More specifically, we use a sweep-adjusted measure of US monetary aggregate M1 which has been shown to have a more stable money demand function than the official M1 measure. The results suggest that the monetary models of exchange rates contain information about future movements of exchange rates, but the success of such models depends on the stability of money demand functions and the specifications of the models.

Comparing different approach and avoidance models of learning and personality in the prediction of work, university, and leadership outcomes

Jackson (2005) developed a hybrid model of personality and learning, known as the learning styles profiler (LSP) which was designed to span biological, socio-cognitive, and experiential research foci of personality and learning research. The hybrid model argues that functional and dysfunctional learning outcomes can be best understood in terms of how cognitions and experiences control, discipline, and re-express the biologically based scale of sensation-seeking. In two studies with part-time workers undertaking tertiary education (N=137 and 58), established models of approach and avoidance from each of the three different research foci were compared with Jackson's hybrid model in their predictiveness of leadership, work, and university outcomes using self-report and supervisor ratings. Results showed that the hybrid model was generally optimal and, as hypothesized, that goal orientation was a mediator of sensation-seeking on outcomes (work performance, university performance, leader behaviours, and counterproductive work behaviour). Our studies suggest that the hybrid model has considerable promise as a predictor of work and educational outcomes as well as dysfunctional outcomes.

Life with sheepdogs:alternative metaphorical models of the doctoral research process revisited

The doctoral research process is the entry path for the academic profession. Traditionally it is explained by reference to another professional entry path, the industrial apprenticeship. Revisiting a paper and discussion originally held at the Marketing Education Group conference in 1991, we explore the implications and limitations of this metaphorical model, suggest alternatives and consider the interaction between student characteristics and supervisory approach. Through this process we offer marketing academics a vast range of unflattering metaphors to employ in describing themselves, their students, their supervisors and their colleagues.

Added luminance ramp alters perceived edge blur and contrast:A critical test for derivative-based models of edge coding

In many models of edge analysis in biological vision, the initial stage is a linear 2nd derivative operation. Such models predict that adding a linear luminance ramp to an edge will have no effect on the edge's appearance, since the ramp has no effect on the 2nd derivative. Our experiments did not support this prediction: adding a negative-going ramp to a positive-going edge (or vice-versa) greatly reduced the perceived blur and contrast of the edge. The effects on a fairly sharp edge were accurately predicted by a nonlinear multi-scale model of edge processing [Georgeson, M. A., May, K. A., Freeman, T. C. A., & Hesse, G. S. (in press). From filters to features: Scale-space analysis of edge and blur coding in human vision. Journal of Vision], in which a half-wave rectifier comes after the 1st derivative filter. But we also found that the ramp affected perceived blur more profoundly when the edge blur was large, and this greater effect was not predicted by the existing model. The model's fit to these data was much improved when the simple half-wave rectifier was replaced by a threshold-like transducer [May, K. A. & Georgeson, M. A. (2007). Blurred edges look faint, and faint edges look sharp: The effect of a gradient threshold in a multi-scale edge coding model. Vision Research, 47, 1705-1720.]. This modified model correctly predicted that the interaction between ramp gradient and edge scale would be much larger for blur perception than for contrast perception. In our model, the ramp narrows an internal representation of the gradient profile, leading to a reduction in perceived blur. This in turn reduces perceived contrast because estimated blur plays a role in the model's estimation of contrast. Interestingly, the model predicts that analogous effects should occur when the width of the window containing the edge is made narrower. This has already been confirmed for blur perception; here, we further support the model by showing a similar effect for contrast perception. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adding constrained discontinuities to Gaussian process models of wind fields

Gaussian Processes provide good prior models for spatial data, but can be too smooth. In many physical situations there are discontinuities along bounding surfaces, for example fronts in near-surface wind fields. We describe a modelling method for such a constrained discontinuity and demonstrate how to infer the model parameters in wind fields with MCMC sampling.

Concreteness effects in different tasks: implications for models of short-term memory

This study investigates concreteness effects in tasks requiring short-term retention. Concreteness effects were assessed in serial recall, matching span, order reconstruction, and free recall. Each task was carried out both in a control condition and under articulatory suppression. Our results show no dissociation between tasks that do and do not require spoken output. This argues against the redintegration hypothesis according to which lexical-semantic effects in short-term memory arise only at the point of production. In contrast, concreteness effects were modulated by task demands that stressed retention of item versus order information. Concreteness effects were stronger in free recall than in serial recall. Suppression, which weakens phonological representations, enhanced the concreteness effect with item scoring. In a matching task, positive effects of concreteness occurred with open sets but not with closed sets of words. Finally, concreteness effects reversed when the task asked only for recall of word positions (as in the matching task), when phonological representations were weak (because of suppression), and when lexical semantic representations overactivated (because of closed sets). We interpret these results as consistent with a model where phonological representations are crucial for the retention of order, while lexical-semantic representations support maintenance of item identity in both input and output buffers.

Numerical Comparison of the Drag Models of Granular Flows Applied to the Fast Pyrolysis of Biomass

The paper presents a comparison between the different drag models for granular flows developed in the literature and the effect of each one of them on the fast pyrolysis of wood. The process takes place on an 100 g/h lab scale bubbling fluidized bed reactor located at Aston University. FLUENT 6.3 is used as the modeling framework of the fluidized bed hydrodynamics, while the fast pyrolysis of the discrete wood particles is incorporated as an external user defined function (UDF) hooked to FLUENT’s main code structure. Three different drag models for granular flows are compared, namely the Gidaspow, Syamlal O’Brien, and Wen-Yu, already incorporated in FLUENT’s main code, and their impact on particle trajectory, heat transfer, degradation rate, product yields, and char residence time is quantified. The Eulerian approach is used to model the bubbling behavior of the sand, which is treated as a continuum. Biomass reaction kinetics is modeled according to the literature using a two-stage, semiglobal model that takes into account secondary reactions.

Spatially structured cognitve models of semantic information:the implications for computerised databases

Existing theories of semantic cognition propose models of cognitive processing occurring in a conceptual space, where ‘meaning’ is derived from the spatial relationships between concepts’ mapped locations within the space. Information visualisation is a growing area of research within the field of information retrieval, and methods for presenting database contents visually in the form of spatial data management systems (SDMSs) are being developed. This thesis combined these two areas of research to investigate the benefits associated with employing spatial-semantic mapping (documents represented as objects in two- and three-dimensional virtual environments are proximally mapped dependent on the semantic similarity of their content) as a tool for improving retrieval performance and navigational efficiency when browsing for information within such systems. Positive effects associated with the quality of document mapping were observed; improved retrieval performance and browsing behaviour were witnessed when mapping was optimal. It was also shown using a third dimension for virtual environment (VE) presentation provides sufficient additional information regarding the semantic structure of the environment that performance is increased in comparison to using two-dimensions for mapping. A model that describes the relationship between retrieval performance and browsing behaviour was proposed on the basis of findings. Individual differences were not found to have any observable influence on retrieval performance or browsing behaviour when mapping quality was good. The findings from this work have implications for both cognitive modelling of semantic information, and for designing and testing information visualisation systems. These implications are discussed in the conclusions of this work.

Agent Based Models of Competition and Collaboration

Swarm intelligence is a popular paradigm for algorithm design. Frequently drawing inspiration from natural systems, it assigns simple rules to a set of agents with the aim that, through local interactions, they collectively solve some global problem. Current variants of a popular swarm based optimization algorithm, particle swarm optimization (PSO), are investigated with a focus on premature convergence. A novel variant, dispersive PSO, is proposed to address this problem and is shown to lead to increased robustness and performance compared to current PSO algorithms. A nature inspired decentralised multi-agent algorithm is proposed to solve a constrained problem of distributed task allocation. Agents must collect and process the mail batches, without global knowledge of their environment or communication between agents. New rules for specialisation are proposed and are shown to exhibit improved eciency and exibility compared to existing ones. These new rules are compared with a market based approach to agent control. The eciency (average number of tasks performed), the exibility (ability to react to changes in the environment), and the sensitivity to load (ability to cope with differing demands) are investigated in both static and dynamic environments. A hybrid algorithm combining both approaches, is shown to exhibit improved eciency and robustness. Evolutionary algorithms are employed, both to optimize parameters and to allow the various rules to evolve and compete. We also observe extinction and speciation. In order to interpret algorithm performance we analyse the causes of eciency loss, derive theoretical upper bounds for the eciency, as well as a complete theoretical description of a non-trivial case, and compare these with the experimental results. Motivated by this work we introduce agent "memory" (the possibility for agents to develop preferences for certain cities) and show that not only does it lead to emergent cooperation between agents, but also to a signicant increase in efficiency.