Mathematical modelling of decision making processes in construction projects

Many different individuals, who have their own expertise and criteria for decision making, are involved in making decisions on construction projects. Decision-making processes are thus significantly affected by communication, in which a dynamic performance of human intentions leads to unpredictable outcomes. In order to theorise the decision making processes including communication, it is argued here that the decision making processes resemble evolutionary dynamics in terms of both selection and mutation, which can be expressed by the replicator-mutator equation. To support this argument, a mathematical model of decision making has been made from an analogy with evolutionary dynamics, in which there are three variables: initial support rate, business hierarchy, and power of persuasion. On the other hand, a survey of patterns in decision making in construction projects has also been performed through self-administered mail questionnaire to construction practitioners. Consequently, comparison between the numerical analysis of mathematical model and the statistical analysis of empirical data has shown a significant potential of the replicator-mutator equation as a tool to study dynamic properties of intentions in communication.

An integrated mathematical model to evaluate nutrient partition in dairy cattle between the animal and its environment

In the past decade, a number of mechanistic, dynamic simulation models of several components of the dairy production system have become available. However their use has been limited due to the detailed technical knowledge and special software required to run them, and the lack of compatibility between models in predicting various metabolic processes in the animal. The first objective of the current study was to integrate the dynamic models of [Brit. J. Nutr. 72 (1994) 679] on rumen function, [J. Anim. Sci. 79 (2001) 1584] on methane production, [J. Anim. Sci. 80 (2002) 2481 on N partition, and a new model of P partition. The second objective was to construct a decision support system to analyse nutrient partition between animal and environment. The integrated model combines key environmental pollutants such as N, P and methane within a nutrient-based feed evaluation system. The model was run under different scenarios and the sensitivity of various parameters analysed. A comparison of predictions from the integrated model with the original simulation models showed an improvement in N excretion since the integrated model uses the dynamic model of [Brit. J. Nutr. 72 (1994) 6791 to predict microbial N, which was not represented in detail in the original model. The integrated model can be used to investigate the degree to which production and environmental objectives are antagonistic, and it may help to explain and understand the complex mechanisms involved at the ruminal and metabolic levels. A part of the integrated model outputs were the forms of N and P in excreta and methane, which can be used as indices of environmental pollution. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

A mathematical model of the in vitro keratinocyte response to chromium and nickel exposure

A mathematical model describing the main mechanistic processes involved in keratinocyte response to chromium and nickel has been developed and compared to experimental in vitro data. Accounting for the interactions between the metal ions and the keratinocytes, the law of mass action was used to generate ordinary differential equations which predict the time evolution and ion concentration dependency of keratinocyte viability, the amount of metal associated with the keratinocytes and the release of cytokines by the keratinocytes. Good agreement between model predictions and existing experimental data of these endpoints was observed, supporting the use of this model to explore physiochemical parameters that influence the toxicological response of keratinocytes to these two metals.

Understanding post-operative temperature drop in cardiac surgery: a mathematical model

A mathematical model is presented to understand heat transfer processes during the cooling and re-warming of patients during cardiac surgery. Our compartmental model is able to account for many of the qualitative features observed in the cooling of various regions of the body including the central core containing the majority of organs, the rectal region containing the intestines and the outer peripheral region of skin and muscle. In particular, we focus on the issue of afterdrop: a drop in core temperature following patient re-warming, which can lead to serious post-operative complications. Model results for a typical cooling and re-warming procedure during surgery are in qualitative agreement with experimental data in producing the afterdrop effect and the observed dynamical variation in temperature between the core, rectal and peripheral regions. The influence of heat transfer processes and the volume of each compartmental region on the afterdrop effect is discussed. We find that excess fat on the peripheral and rectal regions leads to an increase in the afterdrop effect. Our model predicts that, by allowing constant re-warming after the core temperature has been raised, the afterdrop effect will be reduced.

Overview of mathematical approaches used to model bacterial chemotaxis I: the single cell

Mathematical modeling of bacterial chemotaxis systems has been influential and insightful in helping to understand experimental observations. We provide here a comprehensive overview of the range of mathematical approaches used for modeling, within a single bacterium, chemotactic processes caused by changes to external gradients in its environment. Specific areas of the bacterial system which have been studied and modeled are discussed in detail, including the modeling of adaptation in response to attractant gradients, the intracellular phosphorylation cascade, membrane receptor clustering, and spatial modeling of intracellular protein signal transduction. The importance of producing robust models that address adaptation, gain, and sensitivity are also discussed. This review highlights that while mathematical modeling has aided in understanding bacterial chemotaxis on the individual cell scale and guiding experimental design, no single model succeeds in robustly describing all of the basic elements of the cell. We conclude by discussing the importance of this and the future of modeling in this area.

Overview of mathematical approaches used to model bacterial chemotaxis II: bacterial populations

We review the application of mathematical modeling to understanding the behavior of populations of chemotactic bacteria. The application of continuum mathematical models, in particular generalized Keller-Segel models, is discussed along with attempts to incorporate the microscale (individual) behavior on the macroscale, modeling the interaction between different species of bacteria, the interaction of bacteria with their environment, and methods used to obtain experimentally verified parameter values. We allude briefly to the role of modeling pattern formation in understanding collective behavior within bacterial populations. Various aspects of each model are discussed and areas for possible future research are postulated.

Novel high-resolution characterization of ancient DNA reveals C > U-type base modification events as the sole cause of post mortem miscoding lesions

Ancient DNA (aDNA) research has long depended on the power of PCR to amplify trace amounts of surviving genetic material from preserved specimens. While PCR permits specific loci to be targeted and amplified, in many ways it can be intrinsically unsuited to damaged and degraded aDNA templates. PCR amplification of aDNA can produce highly-skewed distributions with significant contributions from miscoding lesion damage and non-authentic sequence artefacts. As traditional PCR-based approaches have been unable to fully resolve the molecular nature of aDNA damage over many years, we have developed a novel single primer extension (SPEX)-based approach to generate more accurate sequence information. SPEX targets selected template strands at defined loci and can generate a quantifiable redundancy of coverage; providing new insights into the molecular nature of aDNA damage and fragmentation. SPEX sequence data reveals inherent limitations in both traditional and metagenomic PCR-based approaches to aDNA, which can make current damage analyses and correct genotyping of ancient specimens problematic. In contrast to previous aDNA studies, SPEX provides strong quantitative evidence that C U-type base modifications are the sole cause of authentic endogenous damage-derived miscoding lesions. This new approach could allow ancient specimens to be genotyped with unprecedented accuracy.

High throughput, high resolution selection of polymorphic microsatellite loci for multiplex analysis

Background Large-scale genetic profiling, mapping and genetic association studies require access to a series of well-characterised and polymorphic microsatellite markers with distinct and broad allele ranges. Selection of complementary microsatellite markers with non-overlapping allele ranges has historically proved to be a bottleneck in the development of multiplex microsatellite assays. The characterisation process for each microsatellite locus can be laborious and costly given the need for numerous, locus-specific fluorescent primers. Results Here, we describe a simple and inexpensive approach to select useful microsatellite markers. The system is based on the pooling of multiple unlabelled PCR amplicons and their subsequent ligation into a standard cloning vector. A second round of amplification utilising generic labelled primers targeting the vector and unlabelled locus-specific primers targeting the microsatellite flanking region yield allelic profiles that are representative of all individuals contained within the pool. Suitability of various DNA pool sizes was then tested for this purpose. DNA template pools containing between 8 and 96 individuals were assessed for the determination of allele ranges of individual microsatellite markers across a broad population. This helped resolve the balance between using pools that are large enough to allow the detection of many alleles against the risk of including too many individuals in a pool such that rare alleles are over-diluted and so do not appear in the pooled microsatellite profile. Pools of DNA from 12 individuals allowed the reliable detection of all alleles present in the pool. Conclusion The use of generic vector-specific fluorescent primers and unlabelled locus-specific primers provides a high resolution, rapid and inexpensive approach for the selection of highly polymorphic microsatellite loci that possess non-overlapping allele ranges for use in large-scale multiplex assays.

Asymmetric synthesis of (1R,2S,3R)-3-methylcispentacin and (1S,2S,3R)-3-methyltranspentacin by kinetic resolution of tert-butyl (+/-)-3-methylcyclopentene-1-carboxylate

Conjugate addition of lithium dibenzylamide to tert-butyl (+/-)-3-methylcyclopentene-1-carboxylate occurs with high levels of stereocontrol, with preferential addition of lithium dibenzylamide to the face of the cyclic alpha,beta-unsaturated acceptor anti- to the 3-methyl substituent. High levels of enantiorecognition are observed between tert-butyl (+/-)-3-methylcyclopentene-1-carboxylate and an excess of lithium (+/-)-N-benzyl-N-alpha-methylbenzylamide (10 eq.) (E > 140) in their mutual kinetic resolution, while the kinetic resolution of tert-butyl (+/-)-3-methylcyclopentene-1-carboxylate with lithium (S)-N-benzyl-N-alpha-methylbenzylamide proceeds to give, at 51% conversion, tert-butyl (1R, 2S, 3R,alphaS)-3-methyl-2-N-benzyl-N-alpha-methylbenzylaminocyclopentane-1-c arboxylate consistent with E > 130, and in 39% yield and 99 +/- 0.5% de after purification. Subsequent deprotection by hydrogenolysis and ester hydrolysis gives (1R, 2S, 3R)-3-methylcispentacin in > 98% de and 98 +/- 1% ee. Selective epimerisation of tert-butyl (1R, 2S, 3R, alphaS)-3-methyl-2-N- benzyl-N-alpha-methylbenzylaminocyclopentane-1-carboxylate by treatment with (KOBu)-Bu-t in (BuOH)-Bu-t gives tert-butyl (1S, 2S, 3R, alphaS)-3-methyl-2-N-benzyl-N-alpha-methylbenzylaminocyclopentane-1-carb oxylate in quantitative yield and in > 98% de, with subsequent deprotection by hydrogenolysis and ester hydrolysis giving (1S, 2S, 3R)-3-methyltranspentacin hydrochloride in > 98% de and 97 +/- 1% ee.

High-resolution crystal structure of the intramolecular d(TpA) thymine-adenine photoadduct and its mechanistic implications

A high-resolution crystal structure is reported for d(TpA)*, the intramolecular thymine-adenine photoadduct that is produced by direct ultraviolet excitation of the dinucleoside monophosphate d(TpA). It confirms the presence of a central 1,3-diazacyclooctatriene ring linking the remnants of the T and A bases, as previously deduced from heteronuclear NMR measurements by Zhao et al. (The structure of d(TpA)*, the major photoproduct of thymidylyl-(3'-5')-deoxyadenosine. Nucleic Acids Res., 1996, 24, 1554-1560). Within the crystal, the d(TpA)* molecules exist as zwitterions with a protonated amidine fragment of the eight-membered ring neutralizing the charge of the internucleotide phosphate monoanion. The absolute configuration at the original thymine C5 and C6 atoms is determined as 5S,6R. This is consistent with d(TpA)* arising by valence isomerization of a precursor cyclobutane photoproduct with cis-syn stereochemistry that is generated by [2 + 2] photoaddition of the thymine 5,6-double bond across the C6 and C5 positions of adenine. This mode of photoaddition should be favoured by the stacked conformation of adjacent T and A bases in B-form DNA. It is probable that the primary photoreaction is mechanistically analogous to pyrimidine dimerization despite having a much lower quantum yield.

Temperature dependent high-resolution infrared photoabsorption cross-sections of trifluoromethyl sulphur pentafluoride

Absolute infrared photoabsorption cross-sections have been measured over the range 600-1500 cm(-1) for the powerful greenhouse gas SF5CF3 at high resolution (0.03 cm(-1)) and at temperatures between 203 and 298 K. Our data indicate that the integrated absorption intensity shows a weak negative dependence on temperature. It is concluded therefore that previous calculations of radiative forcings and global warming potentials based on room-temperature data are reasonable estimates for the atmosphere, but may be low by a few percent. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Crystal structure of the complementary quadruplex formed by d(GCATGCT) at atomic resolution

Here we report the crystal structure of the DNA heptanucleotide sequence d(GCATGCT) determined to a resolution of 1.1 Angstrom. The sequence folds into a complementary loop structure generating several unusual base pairings and is stabilised through cobalt hexammine and highly defined water sites. The single stranded loop is bound together through the G(N2)-C(O2) intra-strand H-bonds for the available G/C residues, which form further Watson-Crick pairings to a complementary sequence, through 2-fold symmetry, generating a pair of non-planar quadruplexes at the heart of the structure. Further, four adenine residues stack in pairs at one end, H-bonding through their N7-N6 positions, and are additionally stabilised through two highly conserved water positions at the structural terminus. This conformation is achieved through the rotation of the central thymine base at the pinnacle of the loop structure, where it stacks with an adjacent thymine residue within the lattice. The crystal packing yields two halved biological units, each related across a 2-fold symmetry axis spanning a cobalt hexammine residue between them, which stabilises the quadruplex structure through H-bonds to the phosphate oxygens and localised hydration.

Past, present and future mathematical models for buildings (i)

This is the first of two articles presenting a detailed review of the historical evolution of mathematical models applied in the development of building technology, including conventional buildings and intelligent buildings. After presenting the technical differences between conventional and intelligent buildings, this article reviews the existing mathematical models, the abstract levels of these models, and their links to the literature for intelligent buildings. The advantages and limitations of the applied mathematical models are identified and the models are classified in terms of their application range and goal. We then describe how the early mathematical models, mainly physical models applied to conventional buildings, have faced new challenges for the design and management of intelligent buildings and led to the use of models which offer more flexibility to better cope with various uncertainties. In contrast with the early modelling techniques, model approaches adopted in neural networks, expert systems, fuzzy logic and genetic models provide a promising method to accommodate these complications as intelligent buildings now need integrated technologies which involve solving complex, multi-objective and integrated decision problems.