Chess Endgame News

This review starts with a demonstration of the power of FinalGen and the new Lomonosov 7-man endgame tables, each giving an alternative 'bionic' ending to the 'five Queens' Hao-Carlsen (Tata Chess 2013) game. The completion of the Lomonosov 7-man DTM EGTs is announced. The final two parts of the Bourzutschky-Konoval 7-man-chess series in EG are summarised.

Co3(SO4)3(OH)2[enH2]: a newS= 3/2 Kagome-type layered sulfate with a unique connectivity

The Kagome lattice, comprising a two-dimensional array of corner-sharing equilateral triangles, is central to the exploration of magnetic frustration. In such a lattice, antiferromagnetic coupling between ions in triangular plaquettes prevents all of the exchange interactions being simultaneously satisfied and a variety of novel magnetic ground states may result at low temperature. Experimental realization of a Kagome lattice remains difficult. The jarosite family of materials of nominal composition AM3(SO4)2(OH)6 (A = monovalent cation; M= Fe3+, Cr3+), offers perhaps one of the most promising manifestations of the phenomenon of magnetic frustration in two dimensions. The magnetic properties of jarosites are however extremely sensitive to the degree of coverage of magnetic sites. Consequently, there is considerable interest in the use of soft chemical techniques for the design and synthesis of novel materials in which to explore the effects of spin, degree of site coverage and connectivity on magnetic frustration.

Chess Endgame News

Three topics are discussed. First, an issue in the epistemology of computer simulation - that of the chess endgame 'becoming' what computer-generated data says it is. Secondly, the endgames of the longest known games are discussed, and the concept of a Bionic Game is defined. Lastly, the set of record-depth positions published by Bourzutschky and Konoval are evaluated by the new MVL tables in Moscow - alongside the deepest known mate of 549 moves.

Macroeconomic forecasting with mixed-frequency data: forecasting output growth in the United States

Many macroeconomic series, such as U.S. real output growth, are sampled quarterly, although potentially useful predictors are often observed at a higher frequency. We look at whether a mixed data-frequency sampling (MIDAS) approach can improve forecasts of output growth. The MIDAS specification used in the comparison uses a novel way of including an autoregressive term. We find that the use of monthly data on the current quarter leads to significant improvement in forecasting current and next quarter output growth, and that MIDAS is an effective way to exploit monthly data compared with alternative methods.

Chess endgame news

This note defines what it means by the 'chess endgame' and looks at the frequency of sub-n-man and 'FinalGen' positions in games and studies and in the FIDE 2013 World Cup. It includes the exposition of the DTM-minimaxing line from one of the three DTM-deepest known (KQPKRBN) positions. It refines the definitions of 'longest game' and 'bionic game'. The games of the FIDE 2013 World Cup and the longest known decisive game are available here.

Are investors guided by the news disclosed by companies or by journalists?

Most previous studies demonstrating the influential role of the textual information released by the media on stock market performance have concentrated on earnings-related disclosures. By contrast, this paper focuses on disposal announcements, so that the impacts of listed companies’ announcements and journalists’ stories can be compared concerning the same events. Consistent with previous findings, negative words, rather than those expressing other types of sentiment, statistically significantly affect adjusted returns and detrended trading volumes. However, extending previous studies, the results of this paper indicate that shareholders’ decisions are mainly guided by the negative sentiment in listed companies’ announcements rather than that in journalists’ stories. Furthermore, this effect is restricted to the announcement day. The average market reaction–measured by adjusted returns–is inversely related only when the announcements are ignored by the media, but the dispersion of market reaction–measured by detrended trading volume–is positively affected only when announcements are followed up by journalists.

Chess Endgame News

This note includes some endgame reflections on the last World Chess Championship, an update on the search for the longest decisive games between computers, and a brief mention of the sets of endgame table (EGT) statistics recently received from Yakov Konoval (2013) and from Victor Zakharov (2013) for the Lomonosov team.

A comparative analysis of the accuracy and uncertainty in real estate and macroeconomic forecasts

We compare and contrast the accuracy and uncertainty in forecasts of rents with those for a variety of macroeconomic series. The results show that in general forecasters tend to be marginally more accurate in the case of macro-economic series than with rents. In common across all of the series, forecasts tend to be smoothed with forecasters under-estimating performance during economic booms, and vice-versa in recessions We find that property forecasts are affected by economic uncertainty, as measured by disagreement across the macro-forecasters. Increased uncertainty leads to increased dispersion in the rental forecasts and a reduction in forecast accuracy.

Chess Endgame News

This paper notes FIDE's 75-move rule (9.6b) and suggests some implications. It reviews two endgame-table initiatives associated with the 50-move rule. One is Huntington's mainly sub-6-man multi-valued DTM50 EGTs implemented in HASKELL. The other is Ronald de Man's WDL' and DTZ50' EGTs which introduce a 5-way evaluation of positions, and ascribe a depth to decisive positions which are not 50-move-rule wins or losses. There is also some first detail about the Lomonosov '7-man DTM EGT' team, and comments on reactions to 'Haworth's Law'.

Are professional macroeconomic forecasters able to do better than forecasting trends?

This paper investigates whether survey forecasters are able to make more accurate forecasts than simply supposing that the future values of the variable will move monotonically to the long-run expectation. We consider the forecasts individually, and the consensus forecasts. Consensus survey forecasts are able to do so to varying degrees depending on the variable, but this ability is largely limited to forecasts of the current quarter.

Chess Endgame News

The DTZ metric indicates the minimaxed 'Depth To Zeroing of the ply-count' for decisive positions. Ronald de Man's DTZ50' metric is a variant of the DTZ metric as moderated by the FIDE 50-move draw-claim rule. DTZ50'-depths are given to '50-move-rule draws' as well as to unconditionally decisive positions. This note defines a two-dimensional taxonomy of positions implicitly defined by DTZ50'. 'Decisive' positions may have values of (wins/losses) v =1/-1 or v = 2/-2. A position's depth in the new DTZ50' metric may be greater than, equal to or less than its DTZ depth. The six parts of the taxonomy are examined in detail, and illustrated by some 40 positions and 16 lines. Positions, lines and the annotation of these lines are supplied in the ancillary data files.

Chess Endgame News

This note investigates the recently revived proposal that the stalemated side should lose, and comments further on the information provided by the FRITZ14 interface to Ronald de Man’s DTZ50' EGTs. The history of stalemate is convoluted, and there is an argument for computing chess endgame tables to revised rules to examine the impact of any change. The FRITZ14 interface to the DTZ50' EGTs exhibits residual 'one-out' and end-of-phase errors. Example positions are provided to illustrate the stalemate and the DTZ50' issues described.

Chess Endgame News

Newborn and Hyatt recently tested the chess-engine CRAFTY on two test sets of 16 positions each. The performance of an engine making greater use of endgame tables (EGTs) is compared with that of CRAFTY. Reference is made to three other articles in which composed positions have been used to test a variety of chess engines. Supporting data here comprises two pgn files, an annotated-pgn file and the original data worksheets used.

Do US macroeconomic forecasters exaggerate their differences?

Application of the Bernhardt et al. (Journal of Financial Economics 2006; 80(3): 657–675) test of herding to the calendar-year annual output growth and inflation forecasts suggests forecasters tend to exaggerate their differences, except at the shortest horizon, when they tend to herd. We consider whether these types of behaviour can help to explain the puzzle that professional forecasters sometimes make point predictions and histogram forecasts which are mutually inconsistent.