792 resultados para low index step
Resumo:
This dissertation examines the effect of regulations, resource and referral agencies, and subsidies on price and quality of care in child care centers. This research is based on a carefully developed conceptual framework that incorporates the factors affecting the demand and supply of child care. The first step in developing this framework is sketching out the structural equations. The structural equations help us understand the underlying behavior of individuals and firms making a decision. The exogenous variables are vector of attributes relating to family characteristics, child characteristics, regulations, subsidy, community characteristics and prices of inputs. Based on the structural equations, reduced form equations are estimated to find the effect of each of the exogenous variables on each of the endogenous variables. Reduced form equations help us answer public policy questions. The sample for this study is from the 1990 Profile of Child Care Settings (PCCS) data in which 2,089 center based programs were interviewed.^ Child/Staff Ratio (Group Level). Results indicate that among subsidies, only the state subsidy per child in poverty has a significant effect on the child/staff ratio at the group level. Presence of resource and referral agencies also increase the child/staff ratio at the group level. Also when the maximum center group size regulation for 25-36 months becomes more stringent, the child/staff ratio at the group level decreases.^ Child/Staff Ratio (Center Level). When the regulations for the maximum child/staff ratio for age groups 13-24 months and 37-60 months become lax, the child/staff ratio for the center increases. As the regulation for maximum group size for infants becomes stringent, the child/staff ratio decreases. An interesting finding is that as the regulations for maximum group size for age groups 13-24 months and 25-36 months become stringent, the child/staff ratio for the center increases. Another significant finding is that when a center is located in a rural area the child/staff ratio is significantly lower.^ Center Weighted Average Hourly Fees. Maximum group size regulations for age groups 25-36 months and 37-60 months have a negative effect on center hourly fee. Maximum child staff regulations for age groups 13-24 months and 37-60 months have a negative effect on center hourly fee. Maximum child staff regulations for age groups 0-12 months and 25-36 months have a positive effect on center hourly fee. Findings also indicate that the center average hourly price is lower when there is a resource and referral agency present. Cost adjusted prekindergarten funds and JOBS child care subsidies have a negative effect on average hourly fee. Cost adjusted social services block grant and state subsidy per child in poverty have a positive effect on the average hourly price. A major finding of this dissertation is the interaction of subsidy and regulatory variables.^ Another major finding is that child/staff ratio at the group level is lower when there is an interaction between geographic location and nature of center sponsorship. ^
Resumo:
This dissertation examines the effect of regulations, resource and referral agencies, and subsidies on price and quality of care in child care centers. This research is based on a carefully developed conceptual framework that incorporates the factors affecting the demand and supply of child care. The first step in developing this framework is sketching out the structural equations. The structural equations help us understand the underlying behavior of individuals and firms making a decision. The exogenous variables are vector of attributes relating to family characteristics, child characteristics, regulations, subsidy, community characteristics and prices of inputs. Based on the structural equations, reduced form equations are estimated to find the effect of each of the exogenous variables on each of the endogenous variables. Reduced form equations help us answer public policy questions. The sample for this study is from the 1990 Profile of Child Care Settings (PCCS) data in which 2,089 center based programs were interviewed. Child/Staff Ratio (Group Level): Results indicate that among subsidies, only the state subsidy per child in poverty has a significant effect on the child/staff ratio at the group level. Presence of resource and referral agencies also increase the child/staff ratio at the group level. Also when the maximum center group size regulation for 25-36 months becomes more stringent, the child/staff ratio at the group level decreases. Child/Staff Ratio (Center Level): When the regulations for the maximum child/staff ratio for age groups 13-24 months and 37-60 months become lax, the child/staff ratio for the center increases. As the regulation for maximum group size for infants becomes stringent, the child/staff ratio decreases. An interesting finding is that as the regulations for maximum group size for age groups 13-24 months and 25-36 months become stringent, the child/staff ratio for the center increases. Another significant finding is that when a center is located in a rural area the child/staff ratio is significantly lower. Center Weighted Average Hourly Fees: Maximum group size regulations for age groups 25-36 months and 37-60 months have a negative effect on center hourly fee. Maximum child staff regulations for age groups 13-24 months and 37-60 months have a negative effect on center hourly fee. Maximum child staff regulations for age groups 0-12 months and 25-36 months have a positive effect on center hourly fee. Findings also indicate that the center average hourly price is lower when there is a resource and referral agency present. Cost adjusted prekindergarten funds and JOBS child care subsidies have a negative effect on average hourly fee. Cost adjusted social services block grant and state subsidy per child in poverty have a positive effect on the average hourly price. A major finding of this dissertation is the interaction of subsidy and regulatory variables. Another major finding is that child/staff ratio at the group level is lower when there is an interaction between geographic location and nature of center sponsorship.
Resumo:
A uniform chronology for foraminifera-based sea surface temperature records has been established in more than 120 sediment cores obtained from the equatorial and eastern Atlantic up to the Arctic Ocean. The chronostratigraphy of the last 30,000 years is mainly based on published d18O records and 14C ages from accelerator mass spectrometry, converted into calendar-year ages. The high-precision age control provides the database necessary for the uniform reconstruction of the climate interval of the Last Glacial Maximum within the GLAMAP-2000 project.
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The development of complex diseases such as preeclampsia are determined by both environmental and genetic factors, but there is also interaction among these factors. Preeclampsia is a pregnancy-specific disorder characterized by de-novo hypertension and proteinuria after 20th week of gestation. There is a broad spectrum of clinical presentations related to hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) that can range from mild preeclampsia to eclampsia (seizures) or HELLP syndrome (Hemolysis, Elevation of Liver enzymes, Low Platelets). Those clinical outcomes might be linked to different pathological mechanisms. Our work aims to identify factors (i.e. genes and environmental) associated with the HDP’s clinical spectrum. Using a case-control approach, we selected a total of 1498 pregnant women for epidemiological and genetic studies, encompassing 755 normotensive (control); 518 preeclampsia; 84 eclampsia; and 141 HELLP. Women were genotyped for 18 SNPs across 5 candidate genes (FLT1, ACVR2A, ERAP1, ERAP2 and LNPEP). For the environmental factors, we found maternal age, parity status and pre-gestational body mass index as important risk factors associated with disease. Genes were associated in a phenotype-specific manner: ACVR2A with early preeclampsia (rs1424954, p=0.002); FLT1 with HELLP syndrome (rs9513095, p=0.003); and ERAP1 with eclampsia (rs30187, p=0.03). Our results suggest that different genetic mechanisms along with specific environmental factors might determine the clinical spectrum of HDP. In addition, phenotype refinement seems to be an essential step in the search for complex disease genes
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It is considered that the Strategic Alignment IT is the first step within the IT Governance process for any institution. Taking as initial point the recognition that the governance corporate has an overall view of the organizations, the IT Governance takes place as a sub-set responsible for the implementation of the organization strategies in what concerns the provision of the necessary tools for the achievement of the goals set in the Institutional Development Plan. In order to do so, COBIT specifies that such Governance shall be built on the following principles: Strategic Alignment, Value Delivery, Risk Management, Performance Measurement. This paper aims at the Strategic Alignment, considered by the authors as the foundation for the development of the entire IT Governance core. By deepening the technical knowledge of the management system development, UFRN has made a decisive step towards the technical empowerment needed to the “Value Delivery”, yet, by perusing the primarily set processes to the “Strategic Alignment”, gaps that limited the IT strategic view in the implementation of the organizational goals were found. In the qualitative study that used documentary research with content analysis and interviews with the strategic and tactical managers, the view on the role of SINFO – Superintendência de Informática was mapped. The documentary research was done on public documents present on the institutional site and on TCU – Tribunal de Contas da União – documents that map the IT Governance profiles on the federal public service as a whole. As a means to obtain the documentary research results equalization, questionnaires/interviews and iGovTI indexes, quantitative tools to the standardization of the results were used, always bearing in mind the usage of the same scale elements present in the TCU analysis. This being said, similarly to what the TCU study through the IGovTI index provides, this paper advocates a particular index to the study area – SA (Strategic Alignment), calculated from the representative variables of the COBIT 4.1 domains and having the representative variables of the Strategic Alignment primary process as components. As a result, an intermediate index among the values in two adjacent surveys done by TCU in the years of 2010 and 2012 was found, which reflects the attitude and view of managers towards the IT governance: still linked to Data Processing in which a department performs its tasks according to the demand of the various departments or sectors, although there is a commission that discusses the issues related to infrastructure acquisition and systems development. With an Operational view rather than Strategic/Managerial and low attachment to the tools consecrated by the market, several processes are not contemplated in the framework COBIT defined set; this is mainly due to the inexistence of a formal strategic plan for IT; hence, the partial congruency between the organization goals and the IT goals.
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The polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is considered the most common endocrine disorder in reproductive age women, with a prevalence ranging from 15 to 20%. In addition to hormonal and reproductive changes, it is common in PCOS the presence of risk factors for developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus, insulin resistance (IR), visceral obesity, chronic low-grade inflammation and dyslipidemia. Due to the high frequency of obesity associated with PCOS, weight loss is considered as the first-line treatment for the syndrome by improving metabolic and normalizes serum androgens, restoring reproductive function of these patients. Objectives: To evaluate the inflammatory markers and IR in women with PCOS and healthy ovulatory with different nutritional status and how these parameters are displayed after weight loss through caloric restriction in with Down syndrome. Methods: Tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were assessed in serum samples from 40 women of childbearing age. The volunteers were divided into four groups: Group I (not eutrophic with PCOS, n = 12); Group II (not eutrophic without PCOS, n = 10), Group III (eutrophic with PCOS, n = 08) and Group IV (eutrophic without PCOS, n = 10). The categorization of groups was performed by body mass index (BMI), according to the World Health Organization (WHO) does not eutrophic, overweight and obesity (BMI> 25 kg / m²) and normal weight (BMI <24.9 kg / m²). IR was determined by HOMA-IR index. In the second phase of the study a controlled dietary intervention was performed and inflammatory parameters were evaluated in 21 overweight and obese women with PCOS, before and after weight loss. All patients received a low-calorie diet with reduction of 500 kcal / day of regular consumption with standard concentrations of macronutrients. Results: Phase 1: PCOS patients showed increased levels of CRP (p <0.01) and HOMAIR (p <0.01). When divided by BMI, both not eutrophic group with PCOS (I) as eutrophic with PCOS (III) showed increased levels of CRP (I = 2.35 ± 0,55mg / L and 2.63 ± III = 0,65mg / L; p <0.01) and HOMA-IR (I = 2.16 ± 2.54 and III = 1.07 ± 0.55; p <0.01). There were no differences in TNF-α and IL-6 between groups. Step 2: After the weight loss of 5% of the initial weight was reduced in all of the components of serum assessed inflammatory profile, PCR (154.75 ± 19:33) vs (78.06 ± 8.9) TNF α (10.89 ± 5.09) vs (6:39 ± 1:41) and IL6 (154.75 ± 19:33) vs (78.06 ± 08.09) (p <0:00) in association with improvement some hormonal parameters evaluated. Conclusion: PCOS contributed to the development of chronic inflammation and changes in glucose metabolism by increasing CRP, insulin and HOMA-IR, independent of nutritional status. The weight loss, caloric restriction has improved the inflammatory condition and hormonal status of the evaluated patients.
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Reconstructing past ocean salinity is important for assessing paleoceanographic change and therefore past climatic dynamics. Commonly, sea water salinity reconstruction is based on foraminifera oxygen isotope ratio values combined with sea surface temperature reconstruction. However, the approach relies on multiple proxies, resulting in relatively large uncertainty and, consequently, relatively low accuracy of salinity estimates. An alternative tool for past ocean salinity reconstruction is the hydrogen isotope composition of long chain (C37) alkenones (dDalkenone). Here, we applied dDalkenone to a 39 ka long coastal sediment record from the Eastern South African continental shelf in the Mozambique Channel, close to the Zambezi River mouth. Despite changes in global sea water dD related to glacial - interglacial ice volume effects, no clear changes were observed in the dDalkenone record throughout the entire 39 ka. The BIT index record from the same core showed high BIT values during the glacial and low values during the Holocene. This indicates a more pronounced freshwater influence at the core location during the glacial, resulting in alkenones depleted in deuterium during that time and, thereby, explains the lack of a clear glacial-interglacial alkenone dD shift. Correlation between the BIT index and dDalkenone during the glacial period suggests that increased continental runoff potentially changed the growth conditions of the alkenone producing haptophytes, promoting coastal haptophyte species with generally more enriched dDalkenone values. We therefore suggest that the application of dDalkenone for reconstructing past salinity in coastal settings may be complicated by changes in the alkenone producing haptophyte community.
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Contexte : En dépit du fait que la tuberculose est un problème de santé publique important dans les pays en voie de développement, les pays occidentaux doivent faire face à des taux d'infection important chez certaines populations immigrantes. Le risque de développer la TB active est 10% plus élevé chez les personnes atteintes de TB latente si elles ne reçoivent pas de traitement adéquat. La détection et le traitement opportun de la TB latente sont non seulement nécessaires pour préserver la santé de l'individu atteint mais aussi pour réduire le fardeau socio- économique et sanitaire du pays hôte. Les taux d'observance des traitements préventifs de TB latente sont faibles et une solution efficace à ce problème est requise pour contrôler la prévalence de l'infection. L'objectif de ce mémoire est d'identifier les facteurs qui contribuent à l'observance thérapeutique des traitements de TB latente auprès de nouveaux arrivants dans les pays occidentaux où les taux endémiques sont faibles. Méthodologie : Une revue systématique a été effectuée à partir de bases de données et répertoires scientifiques reconnus tels Medline, Medline in Process, Embase, Global Health, Cumulative Index to Nursing, le CINAHL et la librairie Cochrane pour en citer quelques un. Les études recensées ont été publiées après 1997 en français, en anglais, conduites auprès de populations immigrantes de l'occident (Canada, Etats-Unis, Europe, Royaume-Uni, Australie et la Nouvelle Zélande) dont le statut socio-économique est homogène. Résultats : Au total, neuf (9) études réalisées aux Etats-Unis sur des immigrants originaires de différents pays où la TB est endémique ont été analysées: deux (2) études qualitatives ethnographiques, six (6) quantitatives observationnelles et une (1) quantitative interventionnelle. Les facteurs sociodémographiques, les caractéristiques individuelles, familiales, ainsi que des déterminants liés à l'accès et à la prestation des services et soins de santé, ont été analysés pour identifier des facteurs d'observance thérapeutique. L'âge, le nombre d'années passées dans le pays hôte, le sexe, le statut civil, l'emploi, le pays d'origine, le soutien familiale et les effets secondaires et indésirables du traitement de la TB ne sont pas des facteurs ii déterminants de l'adhésion au traitement préventif. Toutefois, l’accès à l'information et de l'éducation adaptées aux langues et cultures des populations immigrantes, sur la TB et des objectifs de traitement explicites, l'offre de plan de traitement plus court et mieux tolérés, un environnement stable, un encadrement et l'adhésion au suivi médical par des prestataires motivés ont émergés comme des déterminants d'observance thérapeutique. Conclusion et recommandation : Le manque d'observance thérapeutique du traitement de la TB latente (LTBI) par des populations immigrantes, qui sont déjà aux prises avec des difficultés d'intégration, de communication et économique, est un facteur de risque pour les pays occidentaux où les taux endémiques de TB sont faibles. Les résultats de notre étude suggèrent que des interventions adaptées, un suivi individuel, un encadrement clinique et des plans de traitement plus courts, peuvent grandement améliorer les taux d'observance et d'adhésion aux traitements préventifs, devenant ainsi un investissement pertinent pour les pays hôtes.
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We propose and experimentally demonstrate a refractive index (RI) sensor based on cascaded microfiber knot resonators (CMKRs) with Vernier effect. Deriving from high proportional evanescent field of microfiber and spectrum magnification function of Vernier effect, the RI sensor shows high sensitivity as well as high detection resolution. By using the method named "Drawing-Knotting-Assembling (DKA)", a compact CMKRs is fabricated for experimental demonstration. With the assistance of Lorentz fitting algorithm on the transmission spectrum, sensitivity of 6523nm/RIU and detection resolution up to 1.533 x 10-7 RIU are obtained in the experiment which show good agreement with the numerical simulation. The proposed all-fiber RI sensor with high sensitivity, compact size and low cost can be widely used for chemical and biological detection, as well as the electronic/magnetic field measurement
Resumo:
Fitting statistical models is computationally challenging when the sample size or the dimension of the dataset is huge. An attractive approach for down-scaling the problem size is to first partition the dataset into subsets and then fit using distributed algorithms. The dataset can be partitioned either horizontally (in the sample space) or vertically (in the feature space), and the challenge arise in defining an algorithm with low communication, theoretical guarantees and excellent practical performance in general settings. For sample space partitioning, I propose a MEdian Selection Subset AGgregation Estimator ({\em message}) algorithm for solving these issues. The algorithm applies feature selection in parallel for each subset using regularized regression or Bayesian variable selection method, calculates the `median' feature inclusion index, estimates coefficients for the selected features in parallel for each subset, and then averages these estimates. The algorithm is simple, involves very minimal communication, scales efficiently in sample size, and has theoretical guarantees. I provide extensive experiments to show excellent performance in feature selection, estimation, prediction, and computation time relative to usual competitors.
While sample space partitioning is useful in handling datasets with large sample size, feature space partitioning is more effective when the data dimension is high. Existing methods for partitioning features, however, are either vulnerable to high correlations or inefficient in reducing the model dimension. In the thesis, I propose a new embarrassingly parallel framework named {\em DECO} for distributed variable selection and parameter estimation. In {\em DECO}, variables are first partitioned and allocated to m distributed workers. The decorrelated subset data within each worker are then fitted via any algorithm designed for high-dimensional problems. We show that by incorporating the decorrelation step, DECO can achieve consistent variable selection and parameter estimation on each subset with (almost) no assumptions. In addition, the convergence rate is nearly minimax optimal for both sparse and weakly sparse models and does NOT depend on the partition number m. Extensive numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the performance of the new framework.
For datasets with both large sample sizes and high dimensionality, I propose a new "divided-and-conquer" framework {\em DEME} (DECO-message) by leveraging both the {\em DECO} and the {\em message} algorithm. The new framework first partitions the dataset in the sample space into row cubes using {\em message} and then partition the feature space of the cubes using {\em DECO}. This procedure is equivalent to partitioning the original data matrix into multiple small blocks, each with a feasible size that can be stored and fitted in a computer in parallel. The results are then synthezied via the {\em DECO} and {\em message} algorithm in a reverse order to produce the final output. The whole framework is extremely scalable.
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Contexte : En dépit du fait que la tuberculose est un problème de santé publique important dans les pays en voie de développement, les pays occidentaux doivent faire face à des taux d'infection important chez certaines populations immigrantes. Le risque de développer la TB active est 10% plus élevé chez les personnes atteintes de TB latente si elles ne reçoivent pas de traitement adéquat. La détection et le traitement opportun de la TB latente sont non seulement nécessaires pour préserver la santé de l'individu atteint mais aussi pour réduire le fardeau socio- économique et sanitaire du pays hôte. Les taux d'observance des traitements préventifs de TB latente sont faibles et une solution efficace à ce problème est requise pour contrôler la prévalence de l'infection. L'objectif de ce mémoire est d'identifier les facteurs qui contribuent à l'observance thérapeutique des traitements de TB latente auprès de nouveaux arrivants dans les pays occidentaux où les taux endémiques sont faibles. Méthodologie : Une revue systématique a été effectuée à partir de bases de données et répertoires scientifiques reconnus tels Medline, Medline in Process, Embase, Global Health, Cumulative Index to Nursing, le CINAHL et la librairie Cochrane pour en citer quelques un. Les études recensées ont été publiées après 1997 en français, en anglais, conduites auprès de populations immigrantes de l'occident (Canada, Etats-Unis, Europe, Royaume-Uni, Australie et la Nouvelle Zélande) dont le statut socio-économique est homogène. Résultats : Au total, neuf (9) études réalisées aux Etats-Unis sur des immigrants originaires de différents pays où la TB est endémique ont été analysées: deux (2) études qualitatives ethnographiques, six (6) quantitatives observationnelles et une (1) quantitative interventionnelle. Les facteurs sociodémographiques, les caractéristiques individuelles, familiales, ainsi que des déterminants liés à l'accès et à la prestation des services et soins de santé, ont été analysés pour identifier des facteurs d'observance thérapeutique. L'âge, le nombre d'années passées dans le pays hôte, le sexe, le statut civil, l'emploi, le pays d'origine, le soutien familiale et les effets secondaires et indésirables du traitement de la TB ne sont pas des facteurs ii déterminants de l'adhésion au traitement préventif. Toutefois, l’accès à l'information et de l'éducation adaptées aux langues et cultures des populations immigrantes, sur la TB et des objectifs de traitement explicites, l'offre de plan de traitement plus court et mieux tolérés, un environnement stable, un encadrement et l'adhésion au suivi médical par des prestataires motivés ont émergés comme des déterminants d'observance thérapeutique. Conclusion et recommandation : Le manque d'observance thérapeutique du traitement de la TB latente (LTBI) par des populations immigrantes, qui sont déjà aux prises avec des difficultés d'intégration, de communication et économique, est un facteur de risque pour les pays occidentaux où les taux endémiques de TB sont faibles. Les résultats de notre étude suggèrent que des interventions adaptées, un suivi individuel, un encadrement clinique et des plans de traitement plus courts, peuvent grandement améliorer les taux d'observance et d'adhésion aux traitements préventifs, devenant ainsi un investissement pertinent pour les pays hôtes.
Resumo:
C2-C8 hydrocarbon concentrations (about 35 compounds identified, including saturated, aromatic, and olefinic compounds) from 27 shipboard-sealed, deep-frozen core samples of DSDP Hole 603B off the east coast of North America were determined by a gas-stripping/thermovaporization method. Total yields representing the hydrocarbons dissolved in the pore water and adsorbed on the mineral surfaces of the sediments vary from 22 to 2400 ng/g of dryweight sediment. Highest yields are measured in the two black shale samples of Core 603B-34 (hydrogen index of 360 and 320 mg/g Corg, respectively). In organic-carbon-normalized units these samples have hydrocarbon contents of 12,700 and 21,500 ng/g Corg, respectively, indicating the immaturity of their kerogens. Unusually high organic-carbonnormalized yields are associated with samples that are extremely lean in organic carbon. It is most likely that they are enriched by small amounts of migrated light hydrocarbons. This applies even to those samples with high organic-carbon contents (1.3-2.2%) of Sections 603B-28-4, 603B-29-1, 603B-49-2, and 603B-49-3, because they have an extremely low hydrocarbon potential (hydrogen index between 40 and 60 mg/g Corg). Nearly all samples were found to be contaminated by varying amounts of acetone that is used routinely in large quantities on board ship during core-cutting procedures. Therefore, 48 samples from the original set of 75 collected had to be excluded from the present study.
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A series of core samples taken during Cruise 79 of Glomar Challenger, drilling offshore Morocco (Mazagan Plateau), is analyzed for their low-molecular-weight hydrocarbon contents. Fifty-four samples from DSDP Holes 544A, 545, 547A, and 547B, deep frozen on board immediately after recovery, are studied by a hydrogen-stripping/thermovaporization technique combined with capillary gas chromatography. Thirty-eight compounds in the C2-C8 molecular range, including saturated, olefinic, and aromatic hydrocarbons, are identified. Because of large differences in organic carbon contents, the total C2-C8 hydrocarbon concentrations vary from about 20 to 1500 ng/g dry sediment weight in the whole sample series. Organic-carbon normalized values are about 3.2 x 10**4 ng/g Corg for Lithologic Subunits IIIA and IIIB at Site 545 (Cenomanian to Aptian) and 1.0 x 10**5 ng/g Corg for Unit V at Site 547 (Cenomanian to Albian) reflecting the slightly more advanced maturity stage at the latter site. Values exceeding 10**5 ng/g Corg (Site 545) and 2 x 10**5 ng/g Corg (Site 547) are associated with samples that are very lean in organic carbon and are generally rich in carbonate. These samples are enriched by small amounts of gaseous hydrocarbons. A detailed study of individual hydrocarbon concentrations, plotted against depth, reveal additional indications for migration phenomena. At Site 547, for instance, the most mobile hydrocarbons studied (e.g., ethane) appear to migrate by diffusion or a related process from more than 700 m depth toward the surface.
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Experiments have shown that ocean acidification due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations has deleterious effects on the performance of many marine organisms. However, few empirical or modelling studies have addressed the long-term consequences of ocean acidification for marine ecosystems. Here we show that as pH declines from 8.1 to 7.8 (the change expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from 390 to 750 ppm, consistent with some scenarios for the end of this century) some organisms benefit, but many more lose out. We investigated coral reefs, seagrasses and sediments that are acclimatized to low pH at three cool and shallow volcanic carbon dioxide seeps in Papua New Guinea. At reduced pH, we observed reductions in coral diversity, recruitment and abundances of structurally complex framework builders, and shifts in competitive interactions between taxa. However, coral cover remained constant between pH 8.1 and ~7.8, because massive Porites corals established dominance over structural corals, despite low rates of calcification. Reef development ceased below pH 7.7. Our empirical data from this unique field setting confirm model predictions that ocean acidification, together with temperature stress, will probably lead to severely reduced diversity, structural complexity and resilience of Indo-Pacific coral reefs within this century.
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The last glacial-interglacial transition or Termination I (T I) is well documented in the Black Sea, whereas little is known about climate and environmental dynamics during the penultimate Termination (T II). Here we present a multi-proxy study based on a sediment core from the SE Black Sea covering the penultimate glacial and almost the entire Eemian interglacial (133.5 ±0.7-122.5 ±1.7 ka BP). Proxies comprise ice-rafted debris (IRD), O and Sr isotopes as well as Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca, and U/Ca ratios of benthic ostracods, organic and inorganic sediment geochemistry, as well as TEX86 and UK'37derived water temperatures. The ending penultimate glacial (MIS 6, 133.5 to 129.9 ±0.7 ka BP) is characterised by mean annual lake surface temperatures of about 9°C as estimated from the TEX86 palaeothermometer. This period is impacted by two Black Sea melt water pulses (BSWP-II-1 and 2) as indicated by very low Sr/Ca ostracods but high sedimentary K/Al values. Anomalously high radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr ostracod values (max. 0.70945) during BSWP-II-2 suggest a potential Himalayan source communicated via the Caspian Sea. The T II warming started at 129.9 ±0.7 ka BP, witnessed by abrupt disappearance of IRD, increasing d18O ostracod values, and a first TEX86 derived temperature rise of about 2.5°C. A second, abrupt warming step to ca. 15.5°C as the prelude of the Eemian warm period is documented at 128.3 ka BP. The Mediterranean-Black Sea reconnection most likely occurred at 128.1 ±0.7 ka BP as demonstrated by increasing Sr/Ca ostracods and U/Ca ostracods values. The disappearance of ostracods and TOC contents >2% document the onset of Eemian sapropel formation at 127.6 ka BP. During sapropel formation, TEX86 temperatures dropped and stabilised at around 9°C, while UK'37 temperatures remain on average 17°C. This difference is possibly caused by a habitat shift of Thaumarchaeota communities from surface towards nutrient-rich deeper and colder waters located above the gradually establishing halo-and redoxcline.