A multifactor approach to the social discount rate

This work focuses on the appraisal of public and environmental projects and, more specifically, on the calculation of the social discount rate (SDR) for this kind of very long-term investment projects. As a rule, we can state that the instantaneous discount rate must be equal to the hazard rate of the public good or to the mortality rate of the population that the project is intended to. The hazard can be due to technical failures of the system, but, in this paper, we are going to consider different independent variables that can cause the hazard. That is, we are going to consider a multivariate hazard rate. In our empirical application, the Spanish forest surface will be the system and the forest fire will be the fail that can be caused by several factors. The aim of this work is to integrate the different variables that produce the fail in the calculation of the SDR from a multivariate hazard rate approach.

The problem of estimating the volatility of zero coupon bond interest rate

Financial literature and financial industry use often zero coupon yield curves as input for testing hypotheses, pricing assets or managing risk. They assume this provided data as accurate. We analyse implications of the methodology and of the sample selection criteria used to estimate the zero coupon bond yield term structure on the resulting volatility of spot rates with different maturities. We obtain the volatility term structure using historical volatilities and Egarch volatilities. As input for these volatilities we consider our own spot rates estimation from GovPX bond data and three popular interest rates data sets: from the Federal Reserve Board, from the US Department of the Treasury (H15), and from Bloomberg. We find strong evidence that the resulting zero coupon bond yield volatility estimates as well as the correlation coefficients among spot and forward rates depend significantly on the data set. We observe relevant differences in economic terms when volatilities are used to price derivatives.

Incidence rate and spatio-temporal clustering of type 1 diabetes in Santiago, Chile, from 1997 to 1998

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence rate of type 1 diabetes in the urban area of Santiago, Chile, from March 21, 1997 to March 20, 1998, and to assess the spatio-temporal clustering of cases during that period. METHODS: All sixty-one incident cases were located temporally (day of diagnosis) and spatially (place of residence) in the area of study. Knox's method was used to assess spatio-temporal clustering of incident cases. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate of type 1 diabetes was 4.11 cases per 100,000 children aged less than 15 years per year (95% confidence interval: 3.06--5.14). The incidence rate seems to have increased since the last estimate of the incidence calculated for the years 1986--1992 in the metropolitan region of Santiago. Different combinations of space-time intervals have been evaluated to assess spatio-temporal clustering. The smallest p-value was found for the combination of critical distances of 750 meters and 60 days (uncorrected p-value = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: Although these are preliminary results regarding space-time clustering in Santiago, exploratory analysis of the data method would suggest a possible aggregation of incident cases in space-time coordinates.

Biodegradation rate constants in different NF/UF fractions of cork processing wastewaters

Cork processing wastewater is an aqueous complex mixture of organic compounds that have been extracted from cork planks during the boiling process. These compounds, such as polysaccharides and polyphenols, have different biodegradability rates, which depend not only on the natureof the compound but also on the size of the compound. The aim of this study is to determine the biochemical oxygen demands (BOD) and biodegradationrate constants (k) for different cork wastewater fractions with different organic matter characteristics. These wastewater fractions were obtained using membrane separation processes, namely nanofiltration (NF) and ultrafiltration (UF). The nanofiltration and ultrafiltration membranes molecular weight cut-offs (MWCO) ranged from 0.125 to 91 kDa. The results obtained showed that the biodegradation rate constant for the cork processing wastewater was around 0.3 d(-1) and the k values for the permeates varied between 0.27-0.72 d(-1), being the lower values observed for permeates generated by the membranes with higher MWCO and the higher values observed for the permeates generated by the membranes with lower MWCO. These higher k values indicate that the biodegradable organic matter that is permeated by the membranes with tighter MWCO is more readily biodegradated.

Factors related with adiponectinemia in obese and normal-weight women and with its variation in weight loss programs

Objective: To assess different factors influencing adiponectinemia in obese and normal-weight women; to identify factors associated with the variation (Δ) in adiponectinemia in obese women following a 6-month weight loss program, according to surgical/non-surgical interventions. Methods: We studied 100 normal-weight women and 112 obese premenopausal women; none of them was on any medical treatment. Women were characterized for anthropometrics, daily macronutrient intake, smoking status, contraceptives use, adiponectin as well as IL-6 and TNF-α serum concentrations. Results: Adiponectinemia was lower in obese women (p < 0.001), revealing an inverse association with waist-to-hip ratio (p < 0.001; r = –0.335). Normal-weight women presented lower adiponectinemia among smokers (p = 0.041); body fat, waist-to-hip ratio, TNF-α levels, carbohydrate intake, and smoking all influence adiponectinemia (r 2 = 0.436). After weight loss interventions, a significant modification in macronutrient intake occurs followed by anthropometrics decrease (chiefly after bariatric procedures) and adiponectinemia increase (similar after surgical and non-surgical interventions). After bariatric intervention, Δ adiponectinemia was inversely correlated to Δ waist circumference and Δ carbohydrate intake (r 2 = 0.706). Conclusion: Anthropometrics, diet, smoking, and TNF-α levels all influence adiponectinemia in normal-weight women, although explaining less than 50% of it. In obese women, anthropometrics modestly explain adiponectinemia. Opposite to non-surgical interventions, after bariatric surgery adiponectinemia increase is largely explained by diet composition and anthropometric changes.

Improved matching criterion for frame rate upconversion with trilateral filtering

Frame rate upconversion (FRUC) is an important post-processing technique to enhance the visual quality of low frame rate video. A major, recent advance in this area is FRUC based on trilateral filtering which novelty mainly derives from the combination of an edge-based motion estimation block matching criterion with the trilateral filter. However, there is still room for improvement, notably towards reducing the size of the uncovered regions in the initial estimated frame, this means the estimated frame before trilateral filtering. In this context, proposed is an improved motion estimation block matching criterion where a combined luminance and edge error metric is weighted according to the motion vector components, notably to regularise the motion field. Experimental results confirm that significant improvements are achieved for the final interpolated frames, reaching PSNR gains up to 2.73 dB, on average, regarding recent alternative solutions, for video content with varied motion characteristics.

Invasions changing marine biodiversity. Comment on J.M. Pandolfi & C.E. Lovelock Perspective in Ecology "Novelty Trumps Loss in Global Biodiversity" (18 April, 344, 266).

Although global biodiversity is declining, local ecosystems are not systematically losing diversity, but rather experiencing rapid turnover in species.

Efeitos da hidrodinâmica em comunidades biológicas de praias de calhau rolado em áreas marinhas protegidas

Jornadas "Ciência nos Açores – que futuro?", Ponta Delgada, 7-8 de Junho de 2013.

Influence of environmental temperature and humidity on the acute ventilatory response to exercise in asthmatic adolescents

Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disorder of the respiratory airways affecting people of all ages, and constitutes a serious public health problem worldwide (6). Such a chronic inflammation is invariably associated with injury and repair of the bronchial epithelium known as remodelling (11). Inflammation, remodelling, and altered neural control of the airways are responsible for both recurrent exacerbations of asthma and increasingly permanent airflow obstruction (11, 29, 34). Excessive airway narrowing is caused by altered smooth muscle behaviour, in close interaction with swelling of the airway walls, parenchyma retractile forces, and enhanced intraluminal secretions (29, 38). All these functional and structural changes are associated with the characteristic symptoms of asthma – cough, chest tightness, and wheezing –and have a significant impact on patients’ daily lives, on their families and also on society (1, 24, 29). Recent epidemiological studies show an increase in the prevalence of asthma, mainly in industrial countries (12, 25, 37). The reasons for this increase may depend on host factors (e.g., genetic disposition) or on environmental factors like air pollution or contact with allergens (6, 22, 29). Physical exercise is probably the most common trigger for brief episodes of symptoms, and is assumed to induce airflow limitations in most asthmatic children and young adults (16, 24, 29, 33). Exercise-induced asthma (EIA) is defined as an intermittent narrowing of the airways, generally associated with respiratory symptoms (chest tightness, cough, wheezing and dyspnoea), occurring after 3 to 10 minutes of vigorous exercise with a maximal severity during 5 to 15 minutes after the end of the exercise (9, 14, 16, 24, 33). The definitive diagnosis of EIA is confirmed by the measurement of pre- and post-exercise expiratory flows documenting either a 15% fall in the forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), or a ≥15 to 20% fall in peak expiratory flow (PEF) (9, 24, 29). Some types of physical exercise have been associated with the occurrence of bronchial symptoms and asthma (5, 15, 17). For instance, demanding activities such as basketball or soccer could cause more severe attacks than less vigorous ones such as baseball or jogging (33). The mechanisms of exercise-induced airflow limitations seem to be related to changes in the respiratory mucosa induced by hyperventilation (9, 29). The heat loss from the airways during exercise, and possibly its post-exercise rewarming may contribute to the exercise-induced bronchoconstriction (EIB) (27). Additionally, the concomitant dehydration from the respiratory mucosa during exercise leads to an increased interstitial osmolarity, which may also contribute to bronchoconstriction (4, 36). So, the risk of EIB in asthmatically predisposed subjects seems to be higher with greater ventilation rates and the cooler and drier the inspired air is (23). The incidence of EIA in physically demanding coldweather sports like competitive figure skating and ice hockey has been found to occur in up to 30 to 35% of the participants (32). In contrast, swimming is often recommended to asthmatic individuals, because it improves the functionality of respiratory muscles and, moreover, it seems to have a concomitant beneficial effect on the prevalence of asthma exacerbations (14, 26), supporting the idea that the risk of EIB would be smaller in warm and humid environments. This topic, however, remains controversial since the chlorified water of swimming pools has been suspected as a potential trigger factor for some asthmatic patients (7, 8, 20, 21). In fact, the higher asthma incidence observed in industrialised countries has recently been linked to the exposition to chloride (7, 8, 30). Although clinical and epidemiological data suggest an influence of humidity and temperature of the inspired air on the bronchial response of asthmatic subjects during exercise, some of those studies did not accurately control the intensity of the exercise (2, 13), raising speculation of whether the experienced exercise overload was comparable for all subjects. Additionally, most of the studies did not include a control group (2, 10, 19, 39), which may lead to doubts about whether asthma per se has conditioned the observed results. Moreover, since the main targeted age group of these studies has been adults (10, 19, 39), any extrapolation to childhood/adolescence might be questionable regarding the different lung maturation. Considering the higher incidence of asthma in youngsters (30) and the fact that only the works of Amirav and coworkers (2, 3) have focused on this age group, a scarcity of scientific data can be identified. Additionally, since the main environmental trigger factors, i.e., temperature and humidity, were tested separately (10, 28, 39) it would be useful to analyse these two variables simultaneously because of their synergic effect on water and heat loss by the airways (31, 33). It also appears important to estimate the airway responsiveness to exercise within moderate environmental ranges of temperature and humidity, trying to avoid extreme temperatures and humidity conditions used by others (2, 3). So, the aim of this study was to analyse the influence of moderate changes in air temperature and humidity simultaneously on the acute ventilatory response to exercise in asthmatic children. To overcome the above referred to methodological limitations, we used a 15 minute progressive exercise trial on a cycle ergometer at 3 different workload intensities, and we collected data related to heart rate, respiratory quotient, minute ventilation and oxygen uptake in order to ensure that physiological exercise repercussions were the same in both environments. The tests were done in a “normal” climatic environment (in a gymnasium) and in a hot and humid environment (swimming pool); for the latter, direct chloride exposition was avoided.

Design of a Multiband Full-Rate Ultra-Wideband Receiver in FPGA

MultiBand OFDM (MB-OFDM) UWB [1] is a short-range promising wireless technology for high data rate communications up to 480 Mbps. In this paper, we have designed and implemented in an Virtex-6 FPGA an MB-OFDM UWB receiver for the highest data rate of 480 Mbps. To test the system, we have also implemented an MB-OFDM transmitter and an AWGN generator in VHDL and determined the bit error rates at the receiver running in an FPGA.

Adaptive mutations in bacteria: high rate and small effects

Evolution by natural selection is driven by the continuous generation of adaptive mutations. We measured the genomic mutation rate that generates beneficial mutations and their effects on fitness in Escherichia coli under conditions in which the effect of competition between lineages carrying different beneficial mutations is minimized. We found a rate on the order of 10–5 per genome per generation, which is 1000 times as high as previous estimates, and a mean selective advantage of 1%. Such a high rate of adaptive evolution has implications for the evolution of antibiotic resistance and pathogenicity.

Efeito de um programa de exercício em indivíduos com patologia cardíaca: serie de estudos de caso

Sendo, o exercício físico uma parte importante na Reabilitação de pacientes com patologia cardíaca, o presente estudo tem por Objectivo: verificar se um programa de exercícios aeróbios, mesmo quando associadas a patologias crónicas poderão ter efeito nas variáveis da capacidade funcional, ansiedade e depressão e qualidade de vida. Tipo de estudo: série de estudos de caso prospectivo. Métodos: O programa de exercício realizou-se em 8 semanas tendo cada um dos doentes cardíacos sido avaliados no início do plano e no fim das 8 semanas sobre os seguintes aspectos: a composição corporal (massa magra, massa gorda, Taxa metabólica basal e água), o teste dos 6 minutos de marcha, em termos de ansiedade /depressão e percepção do estados de saúde. Resultados: Em relação à composição corporal, destacase a perda de peso no caso clínico 4 com uma variação de -4.54%; aumento de massa magra de 46.6% e uma diminuição de massa gorda de -41 .1% no caso clínico 2 e um aumento de 4,78% da taxa de metabolismo basal no caso clínico 1 . Na capacidade funcional de exercício houve uma variação média positiva de 16,8% na distância percorrida; verifica-se também um aumento gradual de tempo de exercício ao longo das 8 semanas de tratamento. Por último, uma variação média negativa nos níveis de ansiedade de -28,5% e depressão de -40%; um aumento de 30% na percepção subjectiva do estado de saúde nos 4 casos clínicos deste estudo. Conclusão: O programa de exercícios teve efeitos positivos nos 4 casos clínicos estudados. No entanto, pelas características individuais de cada caso, os seus efeitos tiveram impacto diferente em cada caso, devendo por isso, ser prescrito exercício de forma individualizada.

Análise e optimização dos consumos de utilidades (vapor e energia eléctrica) na Petibol – Embalagens de Plásticos, S.A.

Mestrado em Engenharia Química. Ramo optimização energética na indústria química.

Estudo do reaproveitamento energético de ar quente numa Olaria

Como o sector cerâmico é um consumidor intensivo de energia, este trabalho teve como objectivo principal a elaboração de um plano de optimização do desempenho energético da olaria número três da Fábrica Cerâmica de Valadares. Para o efeito, efectuou-se o levantamento energético desta fracção autónoma. O valor total obtido para os ganhos térmicos foi de 8,7x107 kJ/dia, sendo 82% desta energia obtida na combustão do gás natural. Por outro lado, as perdas energéticas rondam os 8,2x107 kJ/dia, sendo o ar de exaustão e a envolvente os principais responsáveis, com um peso de 42 % e 38%, respectivamente. Tendo em conta estes valores, estudaram-se várias medidas de isolamento da cobertura, pavimento, paredes e saída de ar através de fendas do edifício. No caso do isolamento da cobertura sugeriu-se a substituição das telhas de fibrocimento e do isolamento actualmente existentes por painéis sandwich de cobertura. Esta acção permite uma poupança de 64.796€/ano, com um investimento de 57.029€ e o seu período de retorno de 0,9 anos. O Valor Actualizado Líquido (VAL) no 5º ano foi de 184.069€, com uma Taxa Interna de Rentabilidade (TIR) de 92%. Para isolar o pavimento, sugeriu-se a utilização de placas de poliuretano expandido (PU) de 20mm de espessura. Assim, consegue-se uma poupança de 7.442 €/ano, com um investimento de 21.708€, e um tempo de retorno 2,9 anos. No final do 5º ano de vida útil do projecto, o VAL é de 4.070€ e a TIR 7%. Relativamente ao isolamento das paredes e pilares, sugeriu-se a utilização de placas de PU (30mm), recobertas com chapa de ferro galvanizado. O tempo de retorno do investimento é de 1,5 anos, uma vez que, o investimento é de 13.670€ e a poupança anual será de 9.183€. Esta solução apresenta no último ano um VAL de 12.835€ e uma TIR de 22%. No isolamento das fendas do edifício, sugeriu-se a redução de 20% da sua área livre. Esta medida de optimização implica um investimento de 8.000€, revelando-se suficientemente eficaz, pois apresenta um tempo de retorno de 0,67 anos. O VAL e a TIR da solução no último ano de vida útil do projecto de investimento são de 36.835€ e 35%, respectivamente. Por fim, sugeriu-se ainda a instalação de um sistema de controlo que visa o aproveitamento de ar quente proveniente do forno, instalado no piso inferior à olaria, para pré-aquecer o ar alimentado aos geradores de calor. Esta medida implicaria um investimento de 4.000€, com um tempo de retorno de 2,4 anos e uma poupança anual é de 1.686€. O investimento é aconselhável, já que, no 5º ano, o VAL é de 1.956€ e a TIR é de 17%.

The impact of financial disclosures in the measurement of notional interest rate swaps in the period of 2007-2012

Mestrado em Contabilidade