Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Comparative genomic analysis of the odorant-binding protein family in 12 Drosophila genomes: purifying selection and birth-and-death evolution

Background: Chemoreception is a widespread mechanism that is involved in critical biologic processes, including individual and social behavior. The insect peripheral olfactory system comprises three major multigene families: the olfactory receptor (Or), the gustatory receptor (Gr), and the odorant-binding protein (OBP) families. Members of the latter family establish the first contact with the odorants, and thus constitute the first step in the chemosensory transduction pathway.Results: Comparative analysis of the OBP family in 12 Drosophila genomes allowed the identification of 595 genes that encode putative functional and nonfunctional members in extant species, with 43 gene gains and 28 gene losses (15 deletions and 13 pseudogenization events). The evolution of this family shows tandem gene duplication events, progressive divergence in DNA and amino acid sequence, and prevalence of pseudogenization events in external branches of the phylogenetic tree. We observed that the OBP arrangement in clusters is maintained across the Drosophila species and that purifying selection governs the evolution of the family; nevertheless, OBP genes differ in their functional constraints levels. Finally, we detect that the OBP repertoire evolves more rapidly in the specialist lineages of the Drosophila melanogaster group (D. sechellia and D. erecta) than in their closest generalists.Conclusion: Overall, the evolution of the OBP multigene family is consistent with the birth-and-death model. We also found that members of this family exhibit different functional constraints, which is indicative of some functional divergence, and that they might be involved in some of the specialization processes that occurred through the diversification of the Drosophila genus.

Nonempirical cluster-model study of the chemisorption of atomic hydrogen on the (111) surface of diamondlike crystals

The interaction of atomic hydrogen with C4H9, Si4H9, and Ge4H9 model clusters has been studied using all-electron and pseudopotential ab initio Hartree-Fock computations with basis sets of increasing flexibility. The results show that the effect of polarization functions is important in order to reproduce the experimental findings, but their inclusion only for the atoms directly involved in the chemisorption bond is usually sufficient. For the systems H-C4H9 and H-Si4H9 all-electron and pseudopotential results are in excellent agreement when basis sets of comparable quality are used. Besides, semiempirical modified-neglect-of-differential-overlap computations provide quite reliable results both for diamond and silicon and have been used to investigate larger model clusters. The results confirm the local nature of chemisorption and further justify the use of minimal X4H9 model clusters.

Ab initio theoretical comparative study of magnetic coupling in KNiF3 and K2NiF4s

The origin of magnetic coupling in KNiF3 and K2 NiF4 is studied by means of an ab initio cluster model approach. By a detailed study of the mapping between eigenstates of the exact nonrelativistic and spin model Hamiltonians it is possible to obtain the magnetic coupling constant J and to compare ab initio cluster-model values with those resulting from ab initio periodic Hartree-Fock calculations. This comparison shows that J is strongly determined by two-body interactions; this is a surprising and unexpected result. The importance of the ligands surrounding the basic metal-ligand-metal interacting unit is reexamined by using two different partitions and the constrained space orbital variation method of analysis. This decomposition enables us to show that this effect is basically environmental. Finally, dynamical electronic correlation effects have found to be critical in determining the final value of the magnetic coupling constant.

Electronic structure and magnetic interactions of the spin-chain compounds Ca2CuO3 and Sr2CuO3

The results are presented of a combined periodic and cluster model approach to the electronic structure and magnetic interactions in the spin-chain compounds Ca2CuO3 and Sr2CuO3. An extended t-J model is presented that includes in-chain and interchain hopping and magnetic interaction processes with parameters extracted from ab initio calculations. For both compounds, the in-chain magnetic interaction is found to be around -240 meV, larger than in any of the other cuprates reported in the literature. The interchain magnetic coupling is found to be weakly antiferromagnetic, -1 meV. The effective in-chain hopping parameters are estimated to be ~650 meV for both compounds, whereas the value of the interchain hopping parameter is 30 meV for Sr2CuO3 and 40 meV for Ca2CuO3, in line with the larger interchain distance in the former compound. These effective parameters are shown to be consistent with expressions recently suggested for the Néel temperature and the magnetic moments, and with relations that emerge from the t-J model Hamiltonian. Next, we investigate the physical nature of the band gap. Periodic calculations indicate that an interpretation in terms of a charge-transfer insulator is the most appropriate one, in contrast to the suggestion of a covalent correlated insulator recently reported in the literature.

National Identity and the Preference for State Opting-Out in the Basque Country

We argue that preferences for secession are the expression of a common unobserved mechanisms determining national identity. This paper examines the hypothesis of independence of both preferences for secession (independent Euskadi) and Basque national identity in the light of Akerloff and Kranton (2000). We deal with psychological determinants of individuals' national identity formation as well as those that influence the propensity of individuals to support the secession of their perceived ¿imagined community¿ or nation.. We undertake econometric survey analysis for the Basque Country using a bivariate probit model and publicly available data from the Spanish Centre for Sociological Research. Our results provide robust evidence of a common determination of national identity and political preferences for the secession of the Basque Country consistently with Akerloff and Kranton model.

Active Contour-Based Segmentation of Head and Neck with Adaptive Atlas Selection

This paper presents automated segmentation of structuresin the Head and Neck (H\&N) region, using an activecontour-based joint registration and segmentation model.A new atlas selection strategy is also used. Segmentationis performed based on the dense deformation fieldcomputed from the registration of selected structures inthe atlas image that have distinct boundaries, onto thepatient's image. This approach results in robustsegmentation of the structures of interest, even in thepresence of tumors, or anatomical differences between theatlas and the patient image. For each patient, an atlasimage is selected from the available atlas-database,based on the similarity metric value, computed afterperforming an affine registration between each image inthe atlas-database and the patient's image. Unlike manyof the previous approaches in the literature, thesimilarity metric is not computed over the entire imageregion; rather, it is computed only in the regions ofsoft tissue structures to be segmented. Qualitative andquantitative evaluation of the results is presented.

Assessing the epidemiology and pattern of care of colorectal cancer in Valais, Switzerland

Background: The Valais's cancer registry (RVsT) of the Observatoire valaisan de le santé (OVS) and the department of oncology of Valais's Hospital conducted a study on the epidemiology and pattern of care of colorectal cancer in Valais. Colorectal cancer is the third cause of death by cancer in Switzerland with about 1600 deaths per year. It is the third most frequent cancer for males and the second most frequent for females in Valais. The number of new colorectal cancer cases (average per year) increased between 1989 and 2009 for males as well as for females in Valais. The number of colorectal cancer death cases (average per year) slightly increased between 1989 and 2009 for males as well as for females in Valais. Age-standardized rates of incidence were stable for males and females in Valais and in Switzerland between 1989 and 2009, while age-standardized rates of mortality decreased for males and females in Valais and Switzerland. Results: 774 cases were recorded (59% males). Median age at diagnosis was 70 years old. Most of cancers were invasive (79%) and the main localization was the colon (71%). The most frequent mode of detection was a consultation for non emergency symptoms (75%), but almost 10% of patients consulted in emergency. 82% of patients were treated within 30 days from diagnosis. 90% of the patients were treated by surgery alone or with combined treatment. The first treatment was surgery, including endoscopic resection in 86% of the cases. The treatment was different according to the localization and the stage of the cancer. Survival rate was 95% at 30 days and 79% at one year. The survival was dependent on the stage and the age at diagnosis. Cox model shows an association between mortality and age (better survival for young people) and between mortality and stage (better survival for the lower stages). Methods: RVsT collects information on all cancer cases since 1989 for people registered in the communes of Valais. RVsT has an authorization to collect non anonymized data. All new incident cancers are coded according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O-3) and the stages are coded according to the TNM classification. We studied all cases of in situ and invasive colorectal cancers diagnosed between 2006 and 2009 and registered routinely at the RVsT. We checked for data completeness and if necessary sent questionnaires to avoid missing data. A distance of 15 cm has been chosen to delimitate the colon (sigmoid) and the rectal cancers. We made an active follow-up for vital status to have a valid survival analysis. We analyzed the characteristics of the tumors according to age, sex, localization and stage with stata 9 software. Kaplan-Meier curves were generated and Cox model were fitted to analyze survival. Conclusion: The characteristics of patients and tumors and the one year survival were similar to those observed in Switzerland and some European countries. Patterns of care were close to those recommended in guidelines. Routine data recorded in a cancer registry can be used, not only to provide general statistics, but also to help clinicians assess local practices.

Archaeological and archaeomagnetic dating at a site from the ager Tarraconensis (Tarragona, Spain): El Vila-sec Roman pottery

A very accurate archaeological dating of a Roman site in NE Spain (El Vila-sec) was made based on the typology of pottery artifacts. Three different phases were identifi ed with activity ranging from the mid- 1st century BC to the early-3rd century AD. Analyses of bricks from kilns at El Vila-sec produced data on their stored archaeomagnetic vector. These data were compared with the secular variation curve for the Iberian Peninsula and the SCHA.DIF.3K regional archaeomagnetic model. Both, the reference curve and the model, produced probability distributions for the final period of use for two kilns from the second archaeological phase that were not used during the third phase. At a 95% con fidence level, both time distributions cover a wide chronological range including the presumed archaeological age. Both the Iberian secular variation curve and the SCHA.DIF.3K regional model proved to be suitable models for dating the site, although on their own they do not produce a single unambiguous solution. This archaeomagnetic approach could also be applied to neighbouring archaeological sites that have an imprecise archaeological age.

Differential effects of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines alone or in combinations on the metabolic profile of astrocytes.

We have previously reported that the pro-inflammatory cytokines tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα) and interleukin-1β (IL-1β) induce profound modifications of the metabolic profile of astrocytes. The present study was undertaken to further characterize the effects of cytokines in astrocytes and to determine whether similar effects could also be observed in neurons. To do so, selected pro-inflammatory (IL-6 and interferon-γ, in addition to the above-mentioned TNFα and IL-1β) and anti-inflammatory cytokines (IL-4, IL-10, transforming growth factor-β1 and interferon-β) were applied to primary neuronal and astrocytic cultures, and key metabolic parameters were assessed. As a general pattern, we observed that pro-inflammatory cytokines increased glucose utilization in astrocytes while the anti-inflammatory cytokines IL-4 and IL-10 decreased astrocytic glucose utilization. In contrast, no significant change could be observed in neurons. When pairs of pro-inflammatory cytokines were co-applied in astrocytes, several additive or synergistic modifications could be observed. In contrast, IL-10 partially attenuated the effects of pro-inflammatory cytokines. Finally, the modifications of the astrocytic metabolism induced by TNFα + IL-1β and interferon-γ modulated neuronal susceptibility to an excitotoxic insult in neuron-astrocyte co-cultures. Together, these results suggest that pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines differentially affect the metabolic profile of astrocytes, and that these changes have functional consequences for surrounding neurons.

The definition of quality of life in solid organ transplantation: A psychological qualitative model

Quality of life has been extensively discussed in acute and chronic illnesses. However a dynamic model grounded in the experience of patients in the course of transplantation has not been to our knowledge developed. In a qualitative longitudinal study, patients awaiting solid organ transplantation participated in semi-structured interviews: Exploring topics pre-selected on previous research literature review. Creative interview was privileged, open to themes patients would like to discuss at the different steps of the transplantation process. A qualitative thematic and reflexive analysis was performed, and a model of the dimensions constitutive of quality of life from the perspective of the patients was elaborated. Quality of life is not a stable construct in a long lasting illness-course, but evolves with illness constraints, treatments and outcomes. Dimensions constitutive of quality of life are defined, each of them containing different sub-categories depending on the organ related illness co-morbidities and the stage of illness-course.

Genetic diversity in caribou linked to past and future climate change

Climate-driven range fluctuations during the Pleistocene have continuously reshaped species distribution leading to populations of contrasting genetic diversity. Contemporary climate change is similarly influencing species distribution and population structure, with important consequences for patterns of genetic diversity and species' evolutionary potential1. Yet few studies assess the impacts of global climatic changes on intraspecific genetic variation2, 3, 4, 5. Here, combining analyses of molecular data with time series of predicted species distributions and a model of diffusion through time over the past 21 kyr, we unravel caribou response to past and future climate changes across its entire Holarctic distribution. We found that genetic diversity is geographically structured with two main caribou lineages, one originating from and confined to Northeastern America, the other originating from Euro-Beringia but also currently distributed in western North America. Regions that remained climatically stable over the past 21 kyr maintained a high genetic diversity and are also predicted to experience higher climatic stability under future climate change scenarios. Our interdisciplinary approach, combining genetic data and spatial analyses of climatic stability (applicable to virtually any taxon), represents a significant advance in inferring how climate shapes genetic diversity and impacts genetic structure.

Simulation of soybean growth and yield under northeastern Amazon climatic conditions

The objective of this work was to parameterize, calibrate, and validate a new version of the soybean growth and yield model developed by Sinclair, under natural field conditions in northeastern Amazon. The meteorological data and the values of soybean growth and leaf area were obtained from an agrometeorological experiment carried out in Paragominas, PA, Brazil, from 2006 to 2009. The climatic conditions during the experiment were very distinct, with a slight reduction in rainfall in 2007, due to the El Niño phenomenon. There was a reduction in the leaf area index (LAI) and in biomass production during this year, which was reproduced by the model. The simulation of the LAI had root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.55 to 0.82 m² m-2, from 2006 to 2009. The simulation of soybean yield for independent data showed a RMSE of 198 kg ha-1, i.e., an overestimation of 3%. The model was calibrated and validated for Amazonian climatic conditions, and can contribute positively to the improvement of the simulations of the impacts of land use change in the Amazon region. The modified version of the Sinclair model is able to adequately simulate leaf area formation, total biomass, and soybean yield, under northeastern Amazon climatic conditions.

Structure and kinematics of the Siviez-Mischabel nappe in the Mattertal (western Alps of Switzerland) = Structure et cinématique de la nappe de Siviez-Mischabel le long de la vallée de Zermatt (Alpes de Suisse occidentale)

Résumé Cette étude porte sur le flanc inverse de la nappe de Siviez-Mischabel et sur les unités tectoniques sous jacentes (zone de Stalden supérieur et zone Houillère) dans la vallée menant à Zermatt. L'étude structurale du granite permien de Randa (orthogneiss oeillé) permet de mieux comprendre les effets de la déformation alpine sur les roches de socle. La cartographie détaillée de l'orthogneiss et de son encaissant, ainsi que l'étude lithostratigraphique des terrains sédimentaires associés permettent de proposer un schéma structural et cinématique du flanc inverse de la nappe de Siviez-Mischabel et de mieux comprendre ses relations avec les unités tectoniques sous-jacentes. L'analyse structurale de l'orthogneiss de Randa et de son encaissant révèle la superposition de plusieurs phases de déformation ductile. Cet orthogneiss formé sous des conditions métamorphiques du faciès schiste vert possède une forte schistosité alpine avec au moins deux linéations d'extension. La première, L1, orientée NW-SE est associée à la mise en place de la nappe. La seconde, L2, orientée SW-NE, se corrèle au cisaillement ductile du Simplon. La quantification de la déformation au moyen de la méthode de Fry sur les faciès porphyriques donne des ellipses à rapports axiaux compris entre 1.9 et 5.3, en accord avec les valeurs obtenues par d'autres marqueurs {tourmalines étirées, fibres). Les valeurs mesurées parallèlement à L1 ou L2 sont très semblables. La méthode de Fry a nécessité une étude théorique préalable afin de vérifier son applicabilité aux orthogneiss oeillés. La méthode requiert une distribution spatiale homogène et isotrope des marqueurs utilisés. Les tests statistiques effectués ont révélé que les phénocristaux de feldspath alcalin satisfont à cette condition et qu'ils peuvent être utilisés comme marqueur de la déformation au moyen de la méthode de Fry. Les valeurs obtenues révèlent l'importance du cisaillement ductile du Simplon sur la géométrie de la nappe dans la région d'étude. Le levé cartographique a permis d'améliorer la lithostratigraphie de la base de la nappe de Siviez-Mischabel. Trois formations en position renversée peuvent être observées sous les gneiss formant le coeur de la nappe. Ces trois formations forment le coeur du synclinal de St-Niklaus qui connecte la nappe de Siviez-Mischabel à la zone de Stalden supérieur. La datation par U-Pb de zircons détritiques et magmatiques par LA-ICP-MS permet de contraindre l'âge des formations observées (probablement Carbonifère à Trias précoce). Ces données ont des répercussions importantes sur la structure de la nappe dans la région, prouvant l'existence de plusieurs plis avec des séries normales et renversées bien préservées. La définition et la datation de ces formations, ainsi que leur identification dans la-Zone- Houillère avoisinante permettent de mieux comprendre la géométrie initiale et les relations tectoniques des nappes du Pennique moyen dans la vallée de Zermatt. Summary This study investigates the overturned limb of the Siviez-Mischabel nappe and underlying tectonic units (Upper Stalden zone and Houillère zone) in the Mattertal area. Detailed structural analysis in the Permian Randa granite (augen orthogneiss) allows a better understanding of the Alpine deformation effects on basement rocks. Detailed mapping of this orthogneiss and surrounding rocks, and the study of the lithostratigraphy in the related sedimentary horizons allow the proposition of a structural and kinematic model for the overturned limb of the Siviez-Mischabel and to better understand the relations with the underlying tectonic units. The structural analysis of the Randa orthogneiss and surrounding rocks revealed the superposition of several phases of ductile deformation. This orthogneiss formed under greenschist facies metamorphic conditions displays a strong Alpine foliation with at least two stretching lineations. The first lineation, L1, is oriented NW-SE and is related to the nappe emplacement northward. The second one, L2, is related to the Simplon ductile shear zone. Strain estimation using the Fry method has been performed on porphyritic facies of the Randa orthogneiss. The obtained ellipses have axial ratios varying between 1.9 and 5.3, in agreement with strain estimation obtained from other markers (stretched turmalines, fringes). The strain values are very similar if measured parallel to L1 or to L2. A theoretical approach was necessary to verify the relevant application of the Fry method to augen orthogneiss. This method requires that the distribution of the used markers has to be homogeneous and isotropic. Statistical tests have been done and revealed that K-feldspar phenocrysts satisfy these conditions and can be used as strain markers with the Fry method. The obtained strain measurements revealed the importance of the Simplon ductile shear zone on the geometry of the nappe in the studied area. Mapping has improved the lithostratigraphy at the base of the Siviez-Mischabel nappe. Three overturned formations can be observed below the gneisses forming the core of the nappe. These three formations form the St-Niklaus syncline, which connects the Siviez-Mischabel nappe to the underlying Upper Stalden zone. U-Pb dating of detrital and magmatic zircons by LA-ICPMS allowed the age of the observed formations to be constrained (presumably Carboniferous to Early Triassic). This data has critical implications for nappe structure in the region, composed of few recumbent folds with well preserved normal and overturned limbs. The definition and dating of these formations, as well as their identification in the adjacent "Houillère Zone" improve the understanding of the geometry and tectonic relations of the Middle Penninic nappes in the Mattertal.

Environmental data mining and modeling based on machine learning algorithms and geostatistics

The paper presents some contemporary approaches to spatial environmental data analysis. The main topics are concentrated on the decision-oriented problems of environmental spatial data mining and modeling: valorization and representativity of data with the help of exploratory data analysis, spatial predictions, probabilistic and risk mapping, development and application of conditional stochastic simulation models. The innovative part of the paper presents integrated/hybrid model-machine learning (ML) residuals sequential simulations-MLRSS. The models are based on multilayer perceptron and support vector regression ML algorithms used for modeling long-range spatial trends and sequential simulations of the residuals. NIL algorithms deliver non-linear solution for the spatial non-stationary problems, which are difficult for geostatistical approach. Geostatistical tools (variography) are used to characterize performance of ML algorithms, by analyzing quality and quantity of the spatially structured information extracted from data with ML algorithms. Sequential simulations provide efficient assessment of uncertainty and spatial variability. Case study from the Chernobyl fallouts illustrates the performance of the proposed model. It is shown that probability mapping, provided by the combination of ML data driven and geostatistical model based approaches, can be efficiently used in decision-making process. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.