Aids em idosos no Brasil no período de 2000 a 2012: uma análise de série temporal e dos fatores contextuais associados

The characteristics profile of individuals who develop AIDS in Brazil has changed over time. Among these modifications, a worrying finding is the increased incidence of AIDS in the elderly across the country. But, however, is not yet clear whether the increase in AIDS cases is sufficient to produce a change in the trend of measures in recent years in the Brazilian states, and this increase has an effect from the socioeconomic and demographic indicators. In this sense, the objective of this study is to analyze the AIDS incidence rates among the elderly in Brazil and its effect on socioeconomic and demographic inequalities in the period 2000 to 2012. This is an ecological time-series study to meet behavior of the time series of the incidence rates of AIDS in the elderly from 2000 to 2012. the rates were calculated using the secondary data from Diseases Information System Notification and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Data were analyzed statistically to know the trends in incidence rates, by polynomial regression model and joinpoint log-linear regression model, but also the simple linear regression analysis to find the relationship of trends with variables socioeconomic and demographic. SPSS 20.0® and Joinpoint 4.1.1 programs were used. All tests were carried out considering a significance of 5%. After the analysis, in Brazil were reported 62,052 new cases of AIDS in the elderly from 2000 to 2012. During this period, a significant increase was found for males, both aged 50-59 years (APPC: 3.46 %, p <0.001), such as above 59 years (AAPC: 4.38%; p <0.001). For females, the increase was significant and has the largest increments in the time series, when compared to males in both age groups (AAPC: 4.62%, p <0.001 and AAPC: 6.53%; p <0.001) respectively. The largest increases are observed in women and in the states of North and Northeast. In the Southeast Region is observed stabilization of rates throughout the series. The reason of trends between the sexes had a significant reduction, but also an approach in both age groups of the study, reaching a ratio of 1.7 males for every female in the youngest age group. The trends were related to illiteracy rates, with increasing social inequality and the lowest human development in the Brazilian states. We conclude that in Brazil the incidence of AIDS in the elderly follows an increasing trend in individuals over 50 years. Noteworthy are the highest rates of study in women and in the states of North and Northeast. In this sense, the country needs to enhance policies towards older people with STD / AIDS, training health professionals and developing effective measures for the prevention and early diagnosis of infected people, especially in places with limited resources and high social inequality. In the long term, it is developing new studies to understand whether the measures taken were effective in reducing the trends identified in this study.

Organic carbon sources and their transfer in a gulf of Mexico coral reef ecosystem

Coral reefs face unprecedented threats throughout most of their range. Poorly planned coastal development has contributed increased nutrients and sewage contamination to coastal waters, smothering some corals and contributing to overgrowth by macroalgae. My approach to assessing the degree to which coral reef ecosystems have been influenced by terrestrial and anthropogenic organic carbon inputs is through the use of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stable isotopes and lipid biomarkers in a marine protected area, the Coral Reef System of Veracruz: Parque Nacional Sistema Arrecifal Veracruzano (PNSAV) in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Firstly, I used a C and N stable isotope mixing model and a calculated fatty acid (FA) retention factor to reveal the primary producer sources that fuel the coral reef food web. Secondly, I used lipid classes, FA and sterol biomarkers to determine production of terrestrial and marine biogenic material of nutritional quality to pelagic and benthic organisms. Finally, I used coprostanol to determine pollutant loading from sewage in the suspended particulate matter. Results indicate that phytoplankton is the major source of essential metabolite FA for marine fish and that dietary energy from terrestrial sources such as mangroves are transferred to juvenile fish, while seagrass non-essential FA are transferred to the entire food web mainly in the rainy season. Sea urchins may be the main consumers of brown macroalgae, especially in the dry season, while surgeon fish prefer red algae in both dry and rainy seasons. C and N isotopic values and the ratio C:N suggest that fertilizer is the principal source of nitrogen to macroalgae. Thus nitrogen supply also favored phytoplankton and seagrass growth leading to a better nutritional condition and high retention of organic carbon in the food web members during the rainy season when river influence increases. However, the great star coral Montastrea cavernosa nutritional condition decreased significantly in the rainy season. The nearest river to the PNSAV was polluted in the dry season; however, a dilution effect was detected in the rainy season, when some coral reefs were contaminated. In 2013, a new treatment plant started working in the area. I would suggest monitoring δ¹⁵N and the C: N ratio in macroalgae as indicators of the nitrogen input and coprostanol as an indicator of human feces pollution in order to verify the efficiency of the new treatment plant as part of the management program of the PNSAV.

Coal-fired Power Plants with Flexible Amine-based CCS and Co-located Wind Power: Environmental, Economic and Reliability Outcomes

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies provide a means to significantly reduce carbon emissions from the existing fleet of fossil-fired plants, and hence can facilitate a gradual transition from conventional to more sustainable sources of electric power. This is especially relevant for coal plants that have a CO2 emission rate that is roughly two times higher than that of natural gas plants. Of the different kinds of CCS technology available, post-combustion amine based CCS is the best developed and hence more suitable for retrofitting an existing coal plant. The high costs from operating CCS could be reduced by enabling flexible operation through amine storage or allowing partial capture of CO2 during high electricity prices. This flexibility is also found to improve the power plant’s ramp capability, enabling it to offset the intermittency of renewable power sources. This thesis proposes a solution to problems associated with two promising technologies for decarbonizing the electric power system: the high costs of the energy penalty of CCS, and the intermittency and non-dispatchability of wind power. It explores the economic and technical feasibility of a hybrid system consisting of a coal plant retrofitted with a post-combustion-amine based CCS system equipped with the option to perform partial capture or amine storage, and a co-located wind farm. A techno-economic assessment of the performance of the hybrid system is carried out both from the perspective of the stakeholders (utility owners, investors, etc.) as well as that of the power system operator.

In order to perform the assessment from the perspective of the facility owners (e.g., electric power utilities, independent power producers), an optimal design and operating strategy of the hybrid system is determined for both the amine storage and partial capture configurations. A linear optimization model is developed to determine the optimal component sizes for the hybrid system and capture rates while meeting constraints on annual average emission targets of CO2, and variability of the combined power output. Results indicate that there are economic benefits of flexible operation relative to conventional CCS, and demonstrate that the hybrid system could operate as an energy storage system: providing an effective pathway for wind power integration as well as a mechanism to mute the variability of intermittent wind power.

In order to assess the performance of the hybrid system from the perspective of the system operator, a modified Unit Commitment/ Economic Dispatch model is built to consider and represent the techno-economic aspects of operation of the hybrid system within a power grid. The hybrid system is found to be effective in helping the power system meet an average CO2 emissions limit equivalent to the CO2 emission rate of a state-of-the-art natural gas plant, and to reduce power system operation costs and number of instances and magnitude of energy and reserve scarcity.

Moduli Space of (0,2) Conformal Field Theories

In this thesis we study aspects of (0,2) superconformal field theories (SCFTs), which are suitable for compactification of the heterotic string. In the first part, we study a class of (2,2) SCFTs obtained by fibering a Landau-Ginzburg (LG) orbifold CFT over a compact K\"ahler base manifold. While such models are naturally obtained as phases in a gauged linear sigma model (GLSM), our construction is independent of such an embedding. We discuss the general properties of such theories and present a technique to study the massless spectrum of the associated heterotic compactification. We test the validity of our method by applying it to hybrid phases of GLSMs and comparing spectra among the phases. In the second part, we turn to the study of the role of accidental symmetries in two-dimensional (0,2) SCFTs obtained by RG flow from (0,2) LG theories. These accidental symmetries are ubiquitous, and, unlike in the case of (2,2) theories, their identification is key to correctly identifying the IR fixed point and its properties. We develop a number of tools that help to identify such accidental symmetries in the context of (0,2) LG models and provide a conjecture for a toric structure of the SCFT moduli space in a large class of models. In the final part, we study the stability of heterotic compactifications described by (0,2) GLSMs with respect to worldsheet instanton corrections to the space-time superpotential following the work of Beasley and Witten. We show that generic models elude the vanishing theorem proved there, and may not determine supersymmetric heterotic vacua. We then construct a subclass of GLSMs for which a vanishing theorem holds.

Geochemical and stable isotope composition of Middle Campanian marl-limestone rhythmites of the Lehrte West Syncline near Hannover (Lower Saxony, northern Germany)

A cyclic marl-limestone succession of Middle-Late Campanian age has been investigated with respect to a Milankovitch-controlled origin of geochemical data. In general, the major element geochemistry of the marl-limestone rhythmites can be explained by a simple two-component mixing model with the end-members calcium carbonate and 'average shale'-like material. Carbonate content varies from 55 to 90%. Non-carbonate components are clay minerals (illite, smectite) and biogenic silica from sponge spicules, as well as authigenically formed zeolites (strontian heulandite) and quartz. The redox potential suggests oxidizing conditions throughout the section. Trace element and stable isotopic data as well as SEM investigations show that the carbonate mud is mostly composed of low-magnesium calcitic tests of planktic coccolithophorids and calcareous dinoflagellate cysts (calcispheres). Diagenetic overprint results in a decrease of 2% d18O and an increase in Mn of up to 250 ppm. However, the sediment seems to preserve most of its high Sr content compared to the primary low-magnesium calcite of co-occurring belemnite rostra. The periodicity of geochemical cycles is dominated by 413 ka and weak signals between 51 and 22.5 ka, attributable to orbital forcing. Accumulation rates within these cycles vary between 40 and 50 m/Ma. The resulting cyclic sedimentary sequence is the product of (a) changes in primary production of low-magnesium calcitic biogenic material in surface waters within the long eccentricity and the precession, demonstrated by the CaCO3 content and the Mg/Al, Mn/Al and Sr/Al ratios, and (b) fluctuations in climate and continental weathering, which changed the quality of supplied clay minerals (the illite/smectite ratio), demonstrated by the K/Al ratio. High carbonate productivity correlates with smectite-favouring weathering (semi-arid conditions, conspicuously dry and moist seasonal changes in warmer climates). Ti as the proxy indicator for the detrital terrigenous influx, as well as Rb, Si, Zr and Na, shows only low frequency signals, indicating nearly constant rates of supply throughout the more or less pure pelagic carbonate deposition of the long-lasting third-order Middle-Upper Campanian sedimentary cycle.

Rare earth element concentrations and geochemistry of carbonate minerals from the Logatchev Hydrothermal Field and the Gakkel Ridge

The ultramafic-hosted Logatchev Hydrothermal Field (LHF) at 15°N on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the Arctic Gakkel Ridge (GR) feature carbonate precipitates (aragonite, calcite, and dolomite) in voids and fractures within different types of host rocks. We present chemical and Sr isotopic compositions of these different carbonates to examine the conditions that led to their formation. Our data reveal that different processes have led to the precipitation of carbonates in the various settings. Seawater-like 87Sr/86Sr ratios for aragonite in serpentinites (0.70909 to 0.70917) from the LHF are similar to those of aragonite from the GR (0.70912 to 0.70917) and indicate aragonite precipitation from seawater at ambient conditions at both sites. Aragonite veins in sulfide breccias from LHF also have seawater-like Sr isotope compositions (0.70909 to 0.70915), however, their rare earth element (REE) patterns show a clear positive europium (Eu) anomaly indicative of a small (< 1%) hydrothermal contribution. In contrast to aragonite, dolomite from the LHF has precipitated at much higher temperatures (~100 °C), and yet its 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.70896 to 0.70907) are only slightly lower than those of aragonite. Even higher temperatures are calculated for the precipitation of deformed calcite veins in serpentine-talc fault schists form north of the LHF. These calcites show unradiogenic 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.70460 to 0.70499) indicative of precipitation from evolved hydrothermal fluids. A simple mixing model based on Sr mass balance and enthalpy conservation indicates strongly variable conditions of fluid mixing and heat transfers involved in carbonate formation. Dolomite precipitated from a mixture of 97% seawater and 3% hydrothermal fluid that should have had a temperature of approximately 14 °C assuming that no heat was transferred. The much higher apparent precipitation temperatures based on oxygen isotopes (~ 100 °C) may be indicative of conductive heating, probably of seawater prior to mixing. The hydrothermal calcite in the fault schist has precipitated from a mixture of 67% hydrothermal fluid and 33% seawater, which should have had an isenthalpic mixing temperature of ~ 250 °C. The significantly lower temperatures calculated from oxygen isotopes are likely due to conductive cooling of hydrothermal fluid discharging along faults. Rare earth element patterns corroborate the results of the mixing model, since the hydrothermal calcite, which formed from waters with the greatest hydrothermal contribution, has REE patterns that closely resemble those of vent fluids from the LHF. Our results demonstrate, for the first time, that (1) precipitation from pure seawater, (2) conductive heating of seawater, and (3) conductive cooling of hydrothermal fluids in the sub-seafloor all can lead to carbonate precipitation within a single ultramafic-hosted hydrothermal system.

Helium and oxygen isotope ratios of ODP Sites 193-1188 and 193-1189

Fluid mixing processes and thermal regimes within the Snowcap and Roman Ruins vent sites of the PACMANUS hydrothermal system, Papua New Guinea, were investigated using 3He/4He ratios from fluid inclusions within pyrite and anhydrite and the d18O signature of anhydrite. Depressed 3He/4He ratios of 0.2-6.91RA appear to be caused by significant atmospheric diffusive exchange, whilst He-Ne diffusive fractionation precludes correction using 20Ne. 40Ar/36Ar ratios of 295-310 are elevated above seawater, indicating the majority of argon is seawater derived but with a magmatic component. d18O anhydrite ratios are 6.5 per mil to 11 per mil for Snowcap and 6.4 per mil to 11.9 per mil for Roman Ruins. Using oxygen isotope fractionation factors for the anhydrite-water system, the temperatures calculated assuming isotopic equilibrium at depth are up to 100 °C cooler than fluid inclusion trapping temperatures. It is likely that anhydrite is precipitated rapidly, preventing d18O equilibration. By comparing new d18O values for anhydrite with corresponding published 87Sr/86Sr ratios, seawater is inferred to penetrate deep into the Snowcap system with little conductive heating. A simple fluid mixing model has been constructed whereby the differing venting styles can be explained by a plumbing system at depth which favors delivery of end-member hydrothermal fluid to the high temperature sites.

Trace elements in benthic foraminifera of sediment core V30-49

Eastern tropical Atlantic benthic foraminiferal Ba/Ca and Cd/Ca data from core V30-949 (3093 m) reveal large inferred changes in nutrient concentrations of deep Atlantic waters during the last 250 kyr. Relative changes in North Atlantic Deep Water contribution to this site are estimated by scaling the V30-49 Cd/Ca record to values of modern end-member water masses; these estimates agree well with the relative structure and timing of circulation changes in the eastern tropical Atlantic reconstructed from a d13C record-based mixing model (Raymo et al., 1997, doi:10.1029/97PA01019). Temporal differences between V30-49 Cd/Ca and Ba/Ca records suggest that the Ba/Ca record reflects changes in circulation with an additional increase in the Ba composition of deep Atlantic water masses during glacial episodes, possibly resulting from increased productivity. Similarity between the d13C and Ba/Ca records suggests that carbon isotopes in the deep glacial Atlantic also reflect productivity increases.

Bulk and molecular proxies of sediment core GeoB6518-1

A 20 kyr long sediment sequence from the Congo deep sea fan (core GeoB 6518-1), one of the world's largest deep sea river fans, has been analysed for bulk and molecular proxies in order to reconstruct the marine, soil and plant organic carbon (OC) contributions to these sediments since the last glacial maximum. The bulk proxies applied, C/N ratio and d13Corg, ranged from 10 to 12.5 and from -24.5 to -21 per mill VPDB, respectively. As molecular proxies, concentrations of marine derived alkenones and terrestrial derived odd-numbered n-alkanes were used, which varied between 0.2 and 4 µg/g dry weight sediment. In addition, the branched vs. isoprenoid tetraether (BIT) index, a proxy for soil organic matter input, was used, which varied from 0.3 to 0.5 in this core. Application of binary mixing models, based on the different individual proxies, showed estimates for terrestrial OC input varying by up to 50% due to the heterogeneous nature of the OC. Application of a three end-member mixing model using the d13Corg content, the C/N ratio and the BIT index, enabled the distinction of soil and plant organic matter as separate contributors to the sedimentary OC pool. The results show that marine OC accounts for 20% to 40% of the total OC present in the deep sea fan sediments over the last 20 kyr and that soil OC accounts for about half (45% on average) of the OC present. This suggests that soil OC represents the majority of the terrestrial OC delivered to the fan sediments. Accumulation rates of the plant and soil OC fractions over the last 20 kyr varied by a factor of up to 5, and are strongly related to sediment accumulation rates. They showed an increase starting at ca. 17 kyr BP, a decline during the Younger Dryas, peak values during the early Holocene and lower values in the late Holocene. This pattern matches with reconstructions of past central African humidity and Congo River discharge from the same core and revealed that central African precipitation patterns exert a dominant control on terrestrial OC deposition in the Congo deep sea fan. Marine OC accumulation rates are only weakly related to sediment accumulation rates and vary only little over time compared to the terrigenous fractions. These variations are likely a result of enhanced preservation during times of higher sedimentation rates and of relative small fluctuations in primary production due to wind-driven upwelling.

Associates of an elevated natriuretic peptide level in stable heart failure patients:implications for targeted management

BACKGROUND: Persistently elevated natriuretic peptide (NP) levels in heart failure (HF) patients are associated with impaired prognosis. Recent work suggests that NP-guided therapy can improve outcome, but the mechanisms behind an elevated BNP remain unclear. Among the potential stimuli for NP in clinically stable patients are persistent occult fluid overload, wall stress, inflammation, fibrosis, and ischemia. The purpose of this study was to identify associates of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) in a stable HF population.

METHODS: In a prospective observational study of 179 stable HF patients, the association between BNP and markers of collagen metabolism, inflammation, and Doppler-echocardiographic parameters including left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left atrial volume index (LAVI), and E/e prime (E/e') was measured.

RESULTS: Univariable associates of elevated BNP were age, LVEF, LAVI, E/e', creatinine, and markers of collagen turnover. In a multiple linear regression model, age, creatinine, and LVEF remained significant associates of BNP. E/e' and markers of collagen turnover had a persistent impact on BNP independent of these covariates.

CONCLUSION: Multiple variables are associated with persistently elevated BNP levels in stable HF patients. Clarification of the relative importance of NP stimuli may help refine NP-guided therapy, potentially improving outcome for this at-risk population.

Outlier effects on robust joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data

Robust joint modelling is an emerging field of research. Through the advancements in electronic patient healthcare records, the popularly of joint modelling approaches has grown rapidly in recent years providing simultaneous analysis of longitudinal and survival data. This research advances previous work through the development of a novel robust joint modelling methodology for one of the most common types of standard joint models, that which links a linear mixed model with a Cox proportional hazards model. Through t-distributional assumptions, longitudinal outliers are accommodated with their detrimental impact being down weighed and thus providing more efficient and reliable estimates. The robust joint modelling technique and its major benefits are showcased through the analysis of Northern Irish end stage renal disease patients. With an ageing population and growing prevalence of chronic kidney disease within the United Kingdom, there is a pressing demand to investigate the detrimental relationship between the changing haemoglobin levels of haemodialysis patients and their survival. As outliers within the NI renal data were found to have significantly worse survival, identification of outlying individuals through robust joint modelling may aid nephrologists to improve patient's survival. A simulation study was also undertaken to explore the difference between robust and standard joint models in the presence of increasing proportions and extremity of longitudinal outliers. More efficient and reliable estimates were obtained by robust joint models with increasing contrast between the robust and standard joint models when a greater proportion of more extreme outliers are present. Through illustration of the gains in efficiency and reliability of parameters when outliers exist, the potential of robust joint modelling is evident. The research presented in this thesis highlights the benefits and stresses the need to utilise a more robust approach to joint modelling in the presence of longitudinal outliers.

Problème de déploiement de ressources dans le cas des feux de forêts majeurs - Opérations aériennes

Chaque année le feu brûle quelques dizaines de milliers d’hectares de forêts québécoises. Le coût annuel de prévention et de lutte contre les feux de forêts au Québec est de l’ordre de plusieurs dizaines de millions de dollars. Le présent travail contribue à la réduction de ces coûts à travers l’automatisation du processus de planification des opérations de suppression des feux de forêts majeurs. Pour ce faire, un modèle mathématique linéaire en nombres entiers a été élaboré, résolu et testé; introduisant un nouveau cas particulier à la littérature des Problèmes de Tournées de Véhicules (VRP). Ce modèle mathématique concerne le déploiement aérien des ressources disponibles pour l’extinction des incendies. Le modèle élaboré a été testé avec CPLEX sur des cas tirés de données réelles. Il a permis de réduire le temps de planification des opérations d’extinction des feux de forêts majeurs de 75% dans les situations courantes.

Acontecimentos Traumáticos, Sentimentos de Vergonha na Relação com os Sintomas Depressivos na Adolescência: estudo longitudinal

Introdução: As experiências adversas na infância, tal como a exposição a acontecimentos traumáticos e vivências de vergonha, podem ter um contributo importante na vida dos adolescentes moldando a forma estes se percecionam a si próprios e aos outros, e como lidam com as adversidades, podendo aumentar a sua vulnerabilidade para desenvolver uma perturbação depressiva. Este estudo, de desenho longitudinal, consistiu em estudar os factores preditores (acontecimentos de vida traumáticos e sentimentos de vergonha) no desenvolvimento de psicopatologia depressiva a seis meses. Método: A amostra é constituída por 325 adolescentes, com idades compreendidas entre os 12 e os 18 anos a frequentar o 3º ciclo do ensino básico e ensino secundário. Para o estudo das variáveis referidas, foram utilizados os seguintes instrumentos de medida: o Child Depression Inventory, o Childhood Trauma Questionaire e a Escala de Vergonha Externa. Resultados: Os resultados obtidos relativamente à estabilidade absoluta das variáveis demonstram diferenças significativas entre os valores médios do 1ºmomento de avaliação e do 2º momento de avaliação (após 6 meses) para a variável vergonha. Ao longo do estudo, verificou-se uma associação positiva entre as variáveis relacionadas com o trauma e os sentimentos de vergonha avaliados no primeiro tempo (T1) e a variável sintomas depressivos (T2). O modelo de regressão linear múltipla, explicou 63% da variância dos sintomas depressivos no tempo 2, mostrando que o facto de pertencer ao sexo feminino, experienciar mais vivências de vergonha, e mais experiências traumáticas de abuso afetivo, abuso sexual e de negligência emocional permitem predizer mais sintomas depressivos na adolescência. Conclusão: Podemos concluir com a presente investigação, que o impacto de acontecimentos traumáticos, do tipo abuso/negligência, bem como de sentimentos de vergonha durante a fase da adolescência pode ser nocivo para o desenvolvimento harmonioso posterior, nomeadamente no desenvolvimento de sintomatologia depressiva. / Introduction: The adverse experiences in childhood, such as an exhibition of traumatic events and experiences of sham can have important contribution in teenager’s life shaping the way they perceive themselves and the others and how they deal with adversity, increasing their vulnerability to develop a depressive disorder. This study, longitudinal design, it was consisted in study of the predictive factors (traumatic life events and feelings of shame) in the development of depressive psychopathology in six months. Method: The sample consisted of 325 adolescents aged between 12 and 18 years attending the 3rd cycle of basic education and secondary education. To the study of the variables mentioned, the following measuring instruments were used: the Child Depression Inventory, the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire and External Shame Scale. Results: The results obtained regarding the absolute stability of the variables showed significant differences between the mean values of the evaluation 1st moment and 2nd moment of evaluation (after 6 months) for the variable shame. Throughout the study, there was a positive association between variables related to the trauma and feelings of shame evaluated at the first time (T1) and the variable depressive symptoms (T2). The multiple linear regression model explained 63% of variance in depressive symptoms at time 2 , showing that the fact of being female experience more shame experiences, and most traumatic experiences of emotional abuse, sexual abuse and emotional neglect permit predict more depressive symptoms in adolescence. Conclusion: We can conclude with this research, that the impact of traumatic events, the type abuse/neglect, as well as feelings of shame during adolescence can be harmful to the subsequent harmonious development, including the development of depressive symptoms.

Increasing the power of genome wide association studies in natural populations using repeated measures : evaluation and implementation

1. Genomewide association studies (GWAS) enable detailed dissections of the genetic basis for organisms' ability to adapt to a changing environment. In long-term studies of natural populations, individuals are often marked at one point in their life and then repeatedly recaptured. It is therefore essential that a method for GWAS includes the process of repeated sampling. In a GWAS, the effects of thousands of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) need to be fitted and any model development is constrained by the computational requirements. A method is therefore required that can fit a highly hierarchical model and at the same time is computationally fast enough to be useful. 2. Our method fits fixed SNP effects in a linear mixed model that can include both random polygenic effects and permanent environmental effects. In this way, the model can correct for population structure and model repeated measures. The covariance structure of the linear mixed model is first estimated and subsequently used in a generalized least squares setting to fit the SNP effects. The method was evaluated in a simulation study based on observed genotypes from a long-term study of collared flycatchers in Sweden. 3. The method we present here was successful in estimating permanent environmental effects from simulated repeated measures data. Additionally, we found that especially for variable phenotypes having large variation between years, the repeated measurements model has a substantial increase in power compared to a model using average phenotypes as a response. 4. The method is available in the R package RepeatABEL. It increases the power in GWAS having repeated measures, especially for long-term studies of natural populations, and the R implementation is expected to facilitate modelling of longitudinal data for studies of both animal and human populations.

Schedulazione delle rotte marittime nel settore ortofrutticolo. Modelli e Metodi

Il trasporto marittimo è una delle modalità più utilizzate soprattutto per la movimentazione di grandi volumi di prodotti tra i continenti in quanto è a basso costo, sicuro e meno inquinante rispetto ad altri mezzi di movimentazione. Ai giorni nostri è responsabile di circa l’80% del commercio globale (in volume di carichi trasportati). Il settore del trasporto marittimo ha avuto una lunga tradizione di pianificazione manuale effettuata da progettisti esperti.
 L’obiettivo principale di questa trattazione è stato quello di implementare un modello matematico lineare (MILP, Mixed-Integer Linear Programming Model) per l’ottimizzazione delle rotte marittime nell’ambito del mercato orto-frutticolo che si sviluppa nel bacino del Mediterraneo (problema di Ship-Scheduling). Il modello fornito in questa trattazione è un valido strumento di supporto alle decisioni che può utilizzare uno spedizioniere nell’ambito della pianificazione delle rotte marittime della flotta di navi in suo possesso. Consente di determinare l’insieme delle rotte ottimali che devono essere svolte da un insieme di vettori al fine di massimizzare il profitto complessivo dello spedizioniere, generato nell’arco di tempo considerato. Inoltre, permette di ottenere, per ogni nave considerata, la ripartizione ottimale della merce (carico ottimale).