Intercomparison of radiative forcing calculations of stratospheric water vapour and contrails

Seven groups have participated in an intercomparison study of calculations of radiative forcing (RF) due to stratospheric water vapour (SWV) and contrails. A combination of detailed radiative transfer schemes and codes for global-scale calculations have been used, as well as a combination of idealized simulations and more realistic global-scale changes in stratospheric water vapour and contrails. Detailed line-by-line codes agree within about 15 % for longwave (LW) and shortwave (SW) RF, except in one case where the difference is 30 %. Since the LW and SW RF due to contrails and SWV changes are of opposite sign, the differences between the models seen in the individual LW and SW components can be either compensated or strengthened in the net RF, and thus in relative terms uncertainties are much larger for the net RF. Some of the models used for global-scale simulations of changes in SWV and contrails differ substantially in RF from the more detailed radiative transfer schemes. For the global-scale calculations we use a method of weighting the results to calculate a best estimate based on their performance compared to the more detailed radiative transfer schemes in the idealized simulations.

Climate predictability in the second year

In this paper, the predictability of climate arising from ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies is investigated in the HadCM3 coupled atmosphere–ocean model. An ensemble of simulations of the twentieth century are used to provide initial conditions for a case study. The case study consists of two ensembles started from initial conditions with large differences in regional OHC in the North Atlantic, the Southern Ocean and parts of the West Pacific. Surface temperatures and precipitation are on average not predictable beyond seasonal time scales, but for certain initial conditions there may be longer predictability. It is shown that, for the case study examined here, some aspects of tropical precipitation, European surface temperatures and North Atlantic sea-level pressure are potentially predictable 2 years ahead. Predictability also exists in the other case studies, but the climate variables and regions, which are potentially predictable, differ. This work was done as part of the Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) eScience project.

Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP)

Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.

A comparative method to evaluate and validate stochastic parametrizations

There is a growing interest in using stochastic parametrizations in numerical weather and climate prediction models. Previously, Palmer (2001) outlined the issues that give rise to the need for a stochastic parametrization and the forms such a parametrization could take. In this article a method is presented that uses a comparison between a standard-resolution version and a high-resolution version of the same model to gain information relevant for a stochastic parametrization in that model. A correction term that could be used in a stochastic parametrization is derived from the thermodynamic equations of both models. The origin of the components of this term is discussed. It is found that the component related to unresolved wave-wave interactions is important and can act to compensate for large parametrized tendencies. The correction term is not proportional to the parametrized tendency. Finally, it is explained how the correction term could be used to give information about the shape of the random distribution to be used in a stochastic parametrization. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Seed survival in Chilean Nothofagus in response to desiccation and storage

Nothofagus alpina, N. obliqua, N. glauca, N. leonii, N. dombeyi and N. pumilio seeds exhibited consistent, albeit slight, sensitivity to extreme desiccation, but nevertheless maintained viability at low moisture contents and cool temperatures (-10 degrees to -20 degrees C) over 2 years. Nothofagus alpina, N. obliqua, N. glauca, N. leonii and N. dombeyi conformed to the seed viability equation of Ellis and Roberts; sensitivity of longevity to temperature was quantitatively similar to that of crop seeds, sensitivity to moisture was somewhat less, and a low-moisture-content limit to the equation was detected at 4.8% moisture content in hermetic storage at 65 degrees C, and possibly similar moisture contents at 30-40 degrees C. These five species show orthodox seed storage behaviour. Therefore, ex-situ conservation of these Nothofagus species in seed banks is possible, but the quality of seed lots collected requires attention. Seed storage behaviour was not defined in N. pumilio: initial seed quality was poor and loss of viability was detected over 2 years at 0 degrees, -10 degrees and -20 degrees C at 2.7% moisture content, but not at 5.2%. The results confirm that the economy of nature in seed storage physiology extends to forest tree seeds, but the repeated observation of reduced sensitivity of longevity to moisture in forest tree seeds requires further investigation.

Genetic variation in a chilean endangered endemic: Gomortega keule (Molina) Baillon

Gomortega keule (Molina) Baillon is an endangered, rare species, the only representative of its genus, and endemic to Central Chile. Populations of this tree are now fragmented and few individuals can be found in any of them. Genetic diversity was studied in 33 individuals from three populations in Cauquenes, a coastal mountain area (35°58'S-72°41'W). Fifteen InterSimple Sequence Repeat primers were used to determine the degree of similarity between and within populations. This revealed that 30% of the variation exhibited was between populations while 70% was within; nevertheless individuals were clearly clustered in a pattern which reflected a narrow base of diversity. Three other species from the Laurales order were used in order to provide an external reference as to the degree of diversity. In addition, an external wild population from the native species, Peumus boldus, was used to verify the utility of the markers. We show that the primers are effective in quickly giving an estimate of the degree of diversity of a population, thus giving important topical information relevant to preserving endangered species. Aspects of the conservation and management policy for the species in order to maintain the remaining populations and to preserve the genetic resources are discussed.

The Spanish system of food controls - its administration and enforcement

Following a number of major food safety problems in Europe, including in particular the issues of BSE and dioxin, consumers have become increasingly concerned about food safety. This has led authorities in Europe to revise their systems of food control. The establishment of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is one of the main structural changes made at the moment within the European Union, and similar action at national level has been or is being taken by many EU member states. In Spain a law creating the Spanish Agency of Food Safety has been approved. This has general objectives that include the promotion of food security and offering guarantees and the provision of objective information to consumers and food businesses in the Spanish agrifood sector. This paper reviews the general structure of the current food control system in Spain. At a national level this involves three different Ministries. Spain however also has a devolved system involving Autonomous Communities the paper considers Castilla y Leon as an example. In conclusion the paper recognises that Spain has a complex system for food control. and considers that it will take time before a full evaluation of the new system is possible. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Case studies in interannual to decadal climate predictability

The predictability of ocean and climate variables is investigated, using a perfect model-based case study approach that recognises that predictability is dependent on the initial climate state. In line with previous studies, large scale ocean variables, show predictability for several years or more; by contrast, the predictability of climate variables is generally limited to, 2 years at most. That predictability shows high sensitivity to the initial state is demonstrated by predictable climate signals, arising in different regions, variables and seasons for different initial conditions. The predictability of climate variables, in the second year is of particular interest, because this is beyond the timescale that is usually considered to be the limit, of seasonal predictability. For different initial conditions, second year predictability is found in: temperatures in southeastern, North America (winter) and western Europe (winter and summer), and precipitation in India (summer monsoon) and in the tropical, South Atlantic. Second year predictability arises either from persistence of large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) and, related ocean heat content anomalies, particularly in regions such as the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, or from mechanisms, that involve El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics.