Radiocarbon ages and diatom abundance in samples obtained from Qarlikturvik Valley, Bylot Island

The formation of many arctic wetlands is associated with the occurrence of polygon-patterned permafrost. Existing scenarios to describe and explain surface landforms in arctic wetlands (low-center and high-center polygons and polygon ponds) invoke competing hypotheses: a cyclic succession (the thaw-lake hypothesis) or a linear succession (terrestrialization). Both hypotheses infer the predictable development of polygon-patterned wetlands over millennia. However, very few studies have applied paleoecological techniques to reconstruct long-term succession in tundra wetlands and thereby test the validity of existing hypotheses. This paper uses the paleoecological record of diatoms to investigate long-term development of individual polygons in a High Arctic wetland. Two landform processes were examined: (1) the millennial-scale development of a polygon-pond, and (2) the transition from low-center to erosive high-center polygons. Diatom assemblages were quantified from habitats associated with contrasting landforms in the present-day landscape, and used as an analog to reconstruct past transitions between polygon types. On the basis of this evidence, the paleoecological record does not support either of the existing models describing the predictable succession of polygon landforms in an arctic wetland. Our results indicate a need for greater paleoecological understanding, in combination with in situ observations in present-day geomorphology, in order to identify patterns of polygon wetland development and elucidate the long-term drivers of these landform transitions.

(Table 1) Nesting characteristics of greater snow geese (Chen caerulescens atlanticus) on Bylot Island between 1995-2005

1. Habitat heterogeneity and predator behaviour can strongly affect predator-prey interactions but these factors are rarely considered simultaneously, especially when systems encompass multiple predators and prey. 2. In the Arctic, greater snow geese Anser caerulescens atlanticus L. nest in two structurally different habitats: wetlands that form intricate networks of water channels, and mesic tundra where such obstacles are absent. In this heterogeneous environment, goose eggs are exposed to two types of predators: the arctic fox Vulpes lagopus L. and a diversity of avian predators. We hypothesized that, contrary to birds, the hunting ability of foxes would be impaired by the structurally complex wetland habitat, resulting in a lower predation risk for goose eggs. 3. In addition, lemmings, the main prey of foxes, show strong population cycles. We thus further examined how their fluctuations influenced the interaction between habitat heterogeneity and fox predation on goose eggs. 4. An experimental approach with artificial nests suggested that foxes were faster than avian predators to find unattended goose nests in mesic tundra whereas the reverse was true in wetlands. Foxes spent 3-5 times more time between consecutive attacks on real goose nests in wetlands than in mesic tundra. Their attacks on goose nests were also half as successful in wetlands than in mesic tundra whereas no difference was found for avian predators. 5. Nesting success in wetlands (65%) was higher than in mesic tundra (56%) but the difference between habitats increased during lemming crashes (15%) compared to other phases of the cycle (5%). Nests located at the edge of wetland patches were also less successful than central ones, suggesting a gradient in accessibility of goose nests in wetlands for foxes. 6. Our study shows that the structural complexity of wetlands decreases predation risk from foxes but not avian predators in arctic-nesting birds. Our results also demonstrate that cyclic lemming populations indirectly alter the spatial distribution of productive nests due to a complex interaction between habitat structure, prey-switching and foraging success of foxes.

Palynology of ODP Site 108-658

Ocean Drilling Program Site 658 at 21°N off northwest Africa has a high sedimentation rate and a high concentration of pollen grains and is thus very suitable for detailed pollen analysis. The time scale for the upper 100 m (the last 670 k.y.) of Site 658 is based on biostratigraphic data and isotope stratigraphy. The pollen record has been divided into 34 zones. These are classified into 7 zone types covering a range from very arid to rather humid conditions. The sequence shows a long-term climatic decline: strong glacial stages were found only after 480 k.y. and strong interglacial stages only before 280 k.y. The Site 658 record correlates well with a terrestrial sequence from northern Greece, although both records differ in their response to global climatic change. Spectral analysis shows a 100- and a 42-k.y. period in the curves of pollen brought in by the northwest trade winds and only a 42-k.y. period in the curves of pollen mostly transported by the African Easterly Jet. A 31-k.y. period is found in the curves for Ephedra and Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae. In addition, Ephedra shows a 54-k.y. period.

Bacteriohopanepolyol data of sediment cores GeoB3918-2 and GeoB1514-6 from the Amazon River

We have investigated the delivery of terrestrial organic carbon (OC) to the Amazon shelf and deep sea fan based on soil marker bacteriohopanepolyols (BHPs; adenosylhopane and related compounds) and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), as well as on 14C dating of bulk organic matter. The microbial biomarker records show persistent burial of terrestrial OC, evidenced by almost constant and high BIT values (0.6) and soil marker BHP concentration [80-230 µg/g TOC (total OC)] on the late Holocene shelf and even higher BIT values (0.8-0.9), but lower and more variable soil-marker BHP concentration (40-100 µg/g TOC), on the past glacial deep sea fan. Radiocarbon data show that OC on the shelf is 3-4 kyr older than corresponding bivalve shells, emphasizing the presence of old carbon in this setting. We observe comparable and unexpectedly invariant BHP composition in both marine sediment records, with a remarkably high relative abundance of C-35 amino BHPs including compounds specific for aerobic methane oxidation on the shelf (avg. 50% of all BHPs) and the fan (avg. 40%). Notably, these marine BHP signatures are strikingly similar to those of a methane-producing floodplain area in one of the Amazonian wetland (várzea) regions. The observation indicates that BHPs in the marine sediments may have initially been produced within wetland regions of the Amazon basin and may therefore document persistent export from terrestrial wetland regions, with subsequent re-working in the marine environment, both during recent and past glacial climate conditions.

Using ground-penetrating radar, topography and classification of vegetation to model the sediment and active layer thickness in a periglacial lake catchment, Western Greenland, link to shapefiles

The geometries of a catchment constitute the basis for distributed physically based numerical modeling of different geoscientific disciplines. In this paper results from ground-penetrating radar (GPR) measurements, in terms of a 3D model of total sediment thickness and active layer thickness in a periglacial catchment in western Greenland, is presented. Using the topography, thickness and distribution of sediments is calculated. Vegetation classification and GPR measurements are used to scale active layer thickness from local measurements to catchment scale models. Annual maximum active layer thickness varies from 0.3 m in wetlands to 2.0 m in barren areas and areas of exposed bedrock. Maximum sediment thickness is estimated to be 12.3 m in the major valleys of the catchment. A method to correlate surface vegetation with active layer thickness is also presented. By using relatively simple methods, such as probing and vegetation classification, it is possible to upscale local point measurements to catchment scale models, in areas where the upper subsurface is relatively homogenous. The resulting spatial model of active layer thickness can be used in combination with the sediment model as a geometrical input to further studies of subsurface mass-transport and hydrological flow paths in the periglacial catchment through numerical modelling.

Predicting temporary wetland plant community responses to changes in the hydroperiod

The expected changes on rainfall in the next decades may cause significant changes of the hydroperiod of temporary wetlands and, consequently, shifts on plant community distributions. Predicting plant community responses to changes in the hydroperiod is a key issue for conservation and management of temporary wetlands. We present a predictive distribution model for Arthrocnemum macrostachyum communities in the Doñana wetland (Southern Spain). Logistic regression was used to fit the model using the number of days of inundation and the mean water height as predictors. The internal validation of the model yielded good performance measures. The model was applied to a set of expected scenarios of changes in the hydroperiod to anticipate the most likely shifts in the distribution of Arthrocnemum macrostachyum communities.

Coastal Urban Flood Resislience versus Climate Change

Processes of founding and expanding cities in coastal areas have undergone great changes over time driven by environmental conditions. Coastal settlements looked for places above flood levels and away from swamps and other wetlands whenever possible. As populations grew, cities were extending trying to avoid low and wet lands. No city has been able to limit its growth. The risk of flooding can never be eliminated, but only reduced to the extent possible. Flooding of coastal areas is today dramatically attributed to eustasic sea level rise caused by global climate change. This can be inaccurate. Current climate change is generating an average sea level upward trend, but other regional and local factors result in this trend being accentuated in some places or attenuated, and even reversed, in others. Then, the intensity and frequency of coastal flooding around the planet, although not so much as a unique result of this general eustasic elevation, but rather of the superposition of marine and crustal dynamic elements, the former also climate-related, which give rise to a temporary raising in average sea level in the short term. Since the Little Ice Age the planet has been suffering a global warming change leading to sea level rise. The idea of being too obeying to anthropogenic factors may be attributed to Arrhenius (1896), though it is of much later highlight after the sixties of the last century. Never before, the human factor had been able of such an influence on climate. However, other types of changes in sea levels became apparent, resulting from vertical movements of the crust, modifications of sea basins due to continents fracturing, drifting and coming together, or to different types of climate patterns. Coastal zones are then doubly susceptible to floods. Precipitation immediately triggers pluvial flooding. If it continues upland or when snow and glaciers melt eventually fluvial flooding can occur. The urban development presence represents modifying factors. Additional interference is caused by river and waste water drainage systems. Climate also influences sea levels in coastal areas, where tides as well as the structure and dynamic of the geoid and its crust come into play. From the sea, waters can flood and break or push back berms and other coastline borders. The sea level, controlling the mouth of the main channel of the basin's drainage system, is ultimately what governs flood levels. A temporary rise in sea level acts as a dam at the mouth. Even in absence of that global change, so, floods are likely going to increase in many urban coastal areas. Some kind of innovative methodologies and practices should be needed to get more flood resilience cities

The Extended Water Footprint and illegal groundwater use in the Upper Guadiana Basin (Spain)

Tablas de Daimiel National Park is located in the Upper Guadiana Basin and represents one of the largest and most important wetlands in Europe. The long term ecological integrity of this wetland is inherently associated with the maintenance of a shallow groundwater table, namely the Western Mancha aquifer (WMA) or Aquifer 23. The intensive use of groundwater, mainly for irrigation, has led over the last decades to deep socio‐economic changes. Such intensive use has also lowered the water table of Aquifer 23, drastically reducing the flooded area of the wetland and threatening its ecological integrity. A number of plans and measures have been developed and implemented since the declaration of overexploitation of Aquifer 23 in the year 1987. The most recent one is the Special Plan for the Upper Guadiana (SPUG), approved in 2008. This Plan is the main measure to comply with achieving the objective of good quantitative and qualitative status required under the Water Framework Directive (2000). This paper offers a new type of integrated analysis which allows assessing under a common lens the physical, economic and social dimensions of groundwater use in the area. The first objective is to calculate the groundwater footprint of agricultural production in the Upper Guadiana basin and its evolution during 2000‐2008. For this purpose, we have applied the Extended Water Footprint (EWF) methodology ‐a novel approach based on the classical Water Footprint (WF) approach‐ that includes an assessment of the water productivity from an economic and social perspective. Compared to the classical WF, the EWF allows for a more complete overview of the sector, providing new insights for policy decisions (e.g. to define options and possibilities on water re‐allocation in order to achieve both better ecosystem conservation and social equity). The second objective is to use the EWF to compare the existing authorized and non‐authorized or illegal use of water. This allows us to discuss current initiatives by public authorities in relation to the existing frame of water rights

Balancing groundwater conservation and rural livelihoods under water and climate uncertainties: An integrated hydro-economic modeling framework

In arid countries worldwide, social conflicts between irrigation-based human development and the conservation of aquatic ecosystems are widespread and attract many public debates. This research focuses on the analysis of water and agricultural policies aimed at conserving groundwater resources and maintaining rurallivelihoods in a basin in Spain's central arid region. Intensive groundwater mining for irrigation has caused overexploitation of the basin's large aquifer, the degradation of reputed wetlands and has given rise to notable social conflicts over the years. With the aim of tackling the multifaceted socio-ecological interactions of complex water systems, the methodology used in this study consists in a novel integration into a common platform of an economic optimization model and a hydrology model WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system). This robust tool is used to analyze the spatial and temporal effects of different water and agricultural policies under different climate scenarios. It permits the prediction of different climate and policy outcomes across farm types (water stress impacts and adaptation), at basin's level (aquifer recovery), and along the policies’ implementation horizon (short and long run). Results show that the region's current quota-based water policies may contribute to reduce water consumption in the farms but will not be able to recover the aquifer and will inflict income losses to the rural communities. This situation would worsen in case of drought. Economies of scale and technology are evidenced as larger farms with cropping diversification and those equipped with modern irrigation will better adapt to water stress conditions. However, the long-term sustainability of the aquifer and the maintenance of rurallivelihoods will be attained only if additional policy measures are put in place such as the control of illegal abstractions and the establishing of a water bank. Within the policy domain, the research contributes to the new sustainable development strategy of the EU by concluding that, in water-scarce regions, effective integration of water and agricultural policies is essential for achieving the water protection objectives of the EU policies. Therefore, the design and enforcement of well-balanced region-specific polices is a major task faced by policy makers for achieving successful water management that will ensure nature protection and human development at tolerable social costs. From a methodological perspective, this research initiative contributes to better address hydrological questions as well as economic and social issues in complex water and human systems. Its integrated vision provides a valuable illustration to inform water policy and management decisions within contexts of water-related conflicts worldwide.