Study and implementation of some quantitative trading models

Quantitative or algorithmic trading is the automatization of investments decisions obeying a fixed or dynamic sets of rules to determine trading orders. It has increasingly made its way up to 70% of the trading volume of one of the biggest financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). However, there is not a signi cant amount of academic literature devoted to it due to the private nature of investment banks and hedge funds. This projects aims to review the literature and discuss the models available in a subject that publications are scarce and infrequently. We review the basic and fundamental mathematical concepts needed for modeling financial markets such as: stochastic processes, stochastic integration and basic models for prices and spreads dynamics necessary for building quantitative strategies. We also contrast these models with real market data with minutely sampling frequency from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Quantitative strategies try to exploit two types of behavior: trend following or mean reversion. The former is grouped in the so-called technical models and the later in the so-called pairs trading. Technical models have been discarded by financial theoreticians but we show that they can be properly cast into a well defined scientific predictor if the signal generated by them pass the test of being a Markov time. That is, we can tell if the signal has occurred or not by examining the information up to the current time; or more technically, if the event is F_t-measurable. On the other hand the concept of pairs trading or market neutral strategy is fairly simple. However it can be cast in a variety of mathematical models ranging from a method based on a simple euclidean distance, in a co-integration framework or involving stochastic differential equations such as the well-known Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean reversal ODE and its variations. A model for forecasting any economic or financial magnitude could be properly defined with scientific rigor but it could also lack of any economical value and be considered useless from a practical point of view. This is why this project could not be complete without a backtesting of the mentioned strategies. Conducting a useful and realistic backtesting is by no means a trivial exercise since the \laws" that govern financial markets are constantly evolving in time. This is the reason because we make emphasis in the calibration process of the strategies' parameters to adapt the given market conditions. We find out that the parameters from technical models are more volatile than their counterpart form market neutral strategies and calibration must be done in a high-frequency sampling manner to constantly track the currently market situation. As a whole, the goal of this project is to provide an overview of a quantitative approach to investment reviewing basic strategies and illustrating them by means of a back-testing with real financial market data. The sources of the data used in this project are Bloomberg for intraday time series and Yahoo! for daily prices. All numeric computations and graphics used and shown in this project were implemented in MATLAB^R scratch from scratch as a part of this thesis. No other mathematical or statistical software was used.

Discrimination in Bankruptcy Situations

In a bankruptcy situation, not all claimants are affected in the same way. In particular, some depositors may enter into a situation of personal bankruptcy if they lose part of their investments. Events of this kind may lead to a social catastrophe. We propose discrimination among the claimants as a possible solution. A fact considered in the American bankruptcy law (among others) that establishes some discrimination on the claimants, or the Santander Bank that in the Madoff’s case reimbursed only the deposits to its particular customers. Moreover, the necessity of discriminating has already been mentioned in different contexts by Young (1988), Bossert (1995), Thomson (2003) and Pulido et al. (2002, 2007), for instance. In this paper, we take a bankruptcy solution as the reference point. Given this initial allocation, we make transfers from richer to poorer with the purpose of distributing not only the personal incurred losses as evenly as possible but also the transfers in a progressive way. The agents are divided into two groups depending on their personal monetary value (wealth, net-income, GDP or any other characteristic). Then, we impose a set of Axioms that bound the maximal transfer that each net-contributor can make and each net-receiver can obtain. Finally, we define a value discriminant solution, and we characterize it by means of the Lorenz criterion. Endogenous convex combinations between solutions are also considered. Keywords: Bankruptcy, Discrimination, Compensation, Rules JEL classification: C71, D63, D71.

China’s Strategy in North Africa: New economic challenges for the Mediterranean region

El WP té com a objectiu examinar per què els països del nord d'Àfrica estan augmentant les seves importacions de Xina i per què la Xina està augmentant les seves inversions estrangeres directes a la zona. la avantatges per als països del nord d'Àfrica es troben en els actuals acords de lliure comerç, el absència de barreres aranzelàries i la seva ubicació geogràfica summament beneficiosa com Hub de la Mediterrània. El paper de la Unió per la Mediterrània és clau per identificar aspectes de la política regional, tenint en compte la participació xinesa a la zona. com conseqüència, concloem que els actors polítics han de trobar un equilibri entre sostenible desenvolupament i els interessos econòmics de la regió.

New insights on the development of fungal vaccines: from immunity to recent challenges

Fungal infections are emerging as a major problem in part due to high mortality associated with systemic infections, especially in the case of immunocompromised patients. With the development of new treatments for diseases such as cancer and the acquired immune deficiency syndrome pandemic, the number of immunosuppressed patients has increased and, as a consequence, also the number of invasive fungal infections has increased. Several studies have proposed new strategies for the development of effective fungal vaccines. In addition, better understanding of how the immune system works against fungal pathogens has improved the further development of these new vaccination strategies. As a result, some fungal vaccines have advanced through clinical trials. However, there are still many challenges that prevent the clinical development of fungal vaccines that can efficiently immunise subjects at risk of developing invasive fungal infections. In this review, we will discuss these new vaccination strategies and the challenges that they present. In the future with proper investments, fungal vaccines may soon become a reality.

A study of governance practices in corporate foundations

Implementation of social investments through corporate foundations is growing and, therefore, it is important to study their governance aspects better. Governance is conceptualized as a set of control and incentive mechanisms to overcome the so-called agency conflicts, which originate from the separation of property and management in for-profit organizations, a concept also applied to nonprofit institutions. It is argued that corporate foundations have the characteristics both of companies and of civil society organizations, which distinguishes them from both types of organizations. This paper analyses a study in which a set of governance mechanisms, adapted from those identified by a literature review of corporate and nonprofit governance, was selected for study. It is an exploratory descriptive case study, which analyzed data about eight organizations collected through publications and interviews with their CEOs. The data analysis indicates that it is appropriate to distinguish the different organization types and to apply the agency theory. Research results indicate that the selected governance mechanisms may be adapted and used in corporate foundations. However, they are only partially applied in the observed cases, which suggests the need for further studies that might consolidate these practices in such organizations.

Networks in Argentine agriculture: a multiple-case study approach

Argentina is among the four largest producers of soybeans, sunflower, corn, and wheat, among other agricultural products. Institutional and policy changes during the 1990s fostered the development of Argentine agriculture and the introduction of innovative process and product technologies (no-till, agrochemicals, GMO, GPS) and new investments in modern, large-scale sunflower and soybean processing plants. In addition to technological changes, a "quiet revolution" occurred in the way agricultural production was carried out and organized: from self-production or ownership agriculture to a contract-based agriculture. The objective of this paper is to explore and describe the emergence of networks in the Argentine crop production sector. The paper presents and describes four cases that currently represent about 50% of total grain and oilseed production in Argentina: "informal hybrid form", "agricultural trust fund", "investor-oriented corporate structure", and "network of networks". In all cases, hybrid forms involve a group of actors linked by common objectives, mainly to gain scale, share resources, and improve the profitability of the business. Informal contracts seem to be the most common way of organizing the agriculture process, but using short-term contracts and sequential interfirm collaboration. Networks of networks involve long-term relationships and social development, and reciprocal interfirm collaboration. Agricultural trust fund and investor-oriented corporate structures have combined interfirm collaboration and medium-term relationships. These organizational forms are highly flexible and show a great capacity to adapt to challenges; they are competitive because they enjoy aligned incentives, flexibility, and adaptability.

War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.

2003-2007 Iowa Transportation Improvement Program

This document provides the planned investments in Iowa's transportation system for the five-year period of 2003-2007. It encompasses aviation, railroads, rivers, trails, state parks and institutional roads, roadways, and public transit.

Improving the organisation and commercialisation of small coffee and cocoa producers in the Northern Amazon Region of Ecuador

Coffee and cocoa represent the main sources of income for small farmers in the Northern Amazon Region of Ecuador. The provinces of Orellana and Sucumbios, as border areas, have benefited from investments made by many public and private institutions. Many of the projects carried out in the area have been aimed at energising the production of coffee and cocoa, strengthening the producers’ associations and providing commercialisation infrastructure. Improving the quality of life of this population threatened by poverty and high migration flows mainly from Colombia is a significant challenge. This paper presents research highlighting the importance of associative commercialisation to raising income from coffee and cocoa. The research draws on primary information obtained during field work, and from official information from the Ministry of Agriculture. The study presents an overview of current organisational structures, initiatives of associative commercialisation, stockpiling of infrastructure and ownership regimes, as well as estimates for both ‘robusta’ coffee and national cocoa production and income. The analysis of the main constraints presents different alternatives for the implementation of public land policies. These policies are aimed at mitigating the problems associated with the organisational structure of the producers, with processes of commercialisation and with environmental aspects, among others.

Functional diversity decreases with temperature in high elevation ant fauna

1. Severe environmental conditions filter community species compositions, forming clines of functional diversity along environmental gradients. Here, the changes in functional diversity in ant assemblages with severe environmental conditions in the Swiss Alps were investigated. 2. Eight sites were sampled along an elevation gradient (1800-2550 m). The variation in functional diversity was analysed along an elevation gradient considering four traits: social structure (monogynous vs. polygynous), worker size, pupal development, and nest structure. 3. Ant species richness and functional diversity decreased with decreasing temperature. Species found in colder habitats tended to live in subterranean nests rather than in mounds and exhibit a polymorphism in queen number, either within or across populations. The phylogenetic diversity did not decrease at colder temperature: Formicinae and Myrmicinae occupied the full range of elevations investigated. 4. An insulation experiment indicated that mounds are more thermally insulated against the cold compared with soil. The absence of a mound-building ant from high elevations probably results from a reduction in the amount of vegetal materials provided by coniferous trees. 5. More severe abiotic conditions at higher elevations act as a filter on ant assemblages, directly through physiological tolerances to the abiotic conditions and indirectly as the vegetation necessary for nest building shifts with elevation.</list-item

2006-2010 Iowa Transportation Improvement Program

This document provides the planned investments in Iowa's transportation system for the five-year period of 2006-2010. It encompasses aviation, railroads, rivers, trails, state parks and institutional roads, roadways, and public transit.

Parental care time in four European countries: comparing types and contexts

The intensity of parental investments in child care time is expected to vary across families with different norms and time-constraints. Additionally, it should also differ across countries, since the abilities of parents to harmonize family and work vary by national context. In our opinion, however, this question remains inconclusive for two main reasons: 1) only some countries have been studied from a comparative approach; 2) previous studies have not paid enough attention to the analysis of how the conditional effects of education and employment affect parental investments.In this paper we used nationally representative time-use data from Denmark, Flanders, Spain and the United Kingdom (N=4,031) to explore how employment and education predict variations in child care time. IN Britain and Spain employment has a strong negative effect on fathers’ child care, but a weaker one in Flanders and particularly in Denmark. In contrast, maternal employment has a strong negative impact in all four countries. Education increases child care time significantly only among Spanish mothers and fathers, as well as British mothers. Nonetheless, we find that college-educated mothers under similar time-constraints increase substantially their expected child care time in Britain, Flanders and Spain; for fathers we find a more mixed picture. Routine child care activities are more sensitive to both maternal and paternal employment than interactive child care activities. Finally, we observe that working a public sector job generally increases a total time allocated to parental care, controlling for several demographic and socioeconomic variables.

Government and the distribution of skills

Individuals' life chances in the future will very much depend on how we invest in our children now. An optimal human capital model would combine a high mean with minimal variance of skills. It is well-established that early childhood learning is key to adult success. The impact of social origins on child outcomes remains strong, and the new role of women poses additional challenges to our conventional nurturing approach to child development. This paper focuses on skill development in the early years, examining how we might best combine family inputs and public policy to invest optimally in our future human capital. I emphasize three issues: one, the uneven capacity of parents to invest in children; two, the impact of mothers' employment on child outcomes; and three, the potential benefits of early pre-school programmes. I conclude that mothers' intra-family bargaining power is decisive for family investments and that universal child care is key if our goal is to arrive at a strong mean with minimal variance.

Financial Markets and Real Ecinomy: Four Essays in International Trade

Financial markets play an important role in an economy performing various functions like mobilizing and pooling savings, producing information about investment opportunities, screening and monitoring investments, implementation of corporate governance, diversification and management of risk. These functions influence saving rates, investment decisions, technological innovation and, therefore, have important implications for welfare. In my PhD dissertation I examine the interplay of financial and product markets by looking at different channels through which financial markets may influence an economy.My dissertation consists of four chapters. The first chapter is a co-authored work with Martin Strieborny, a PhD student from the University of Lausanne. The second chapter is a co-authored work with Melise Jaud, a PhD student from the Paris School of Economics. The third chapter is co-authored with both Melise Jaud and Martin Strieborny. The last chapter of my PhD dissertation is a single author paper.Chapter 1 of my PhD thesis analyzes the effect of financial development on growth of contract intensive industries. These industries intensively use intermediate inputs that neither can be sold on organized exchange, nor are reference-priced (Levchenko, 2007; Nunn, 2007). A typical example of a contract intensive industry would be an industry where an upstream supplier has to make investments in order to customize a product for needs of a downstream buyer. After the investment is made and the product is adjusted, the buyer may refuse to meet a commitment and trigger ex post renegotiation. Since the product is customized to the buyer's needs, the supplier cannot sell the product to a different buyer at the original price. This is referred in the literature as the holdup problem. As a consequence, the individually rational suppliers will underinvest into relationship-specific assets, hurting the downstream firms with negative consequences for aggregate growth. The standard way to mitigate the hold up problem is to write a binding contract and to rely on the legal enforcement by the state. However, even the most effective contract enforcement might fail to protect the supplier in tough times when the buyer lacks a reliable source of external financing. This suggests the potential role of financial intermediaries, banks in particular, in mitigating the incomplete contract problem. First, financial products like letters of credit and letters of guarantee can substantially decrease a risk and transaction costs of parties. Second, a bank loan can serve as a signal about a buyer's true financial situation, an upstream firm will be more willing undertake relationship-specific investment knowing that the business partner is creditworthy and will abstain from myopic behavior (Fama, 1985; von Thadden, 1995). Therefore, a well-developed financial (especially banking) system should disproportionately benefit contract intensive industries.The empirical test confirms this hypothesis. Indeed, contract intensive industries seem to grow faster in countries with a well developed financial system. Furthermore, this effect comes from a more developed banking sector rather than from a deeper stock market. These results are reaffirmed examining the effect of US bank deregulation on the growth of contract intensive industries in different states. Beyond an overall pro-growth effect, the bank deregulation seems to disproportionately benefit the industries requiring relationship-specific investments from their suppliers.Chapter 2 of my PhD focuses on the role of the financial sector in promoting exports of developing countries. In particular, it investigates how credit constraints affect the ability of firms operating in agri-food sectors of developing countries to keep exporting to foreign markets.Trade in high-value agri-food products from developing countries has expanded enormously over the last two decades offering opportunities for development. However, trade in agri-food is governed by a growing array of standards. Sanitary and Phytosanitary standards (SPS) and technical regulations impose additional sunk, fixed and operating costs along the firms' export life. Such costs may be detrimental to firms' survival, "pricing out" producers that cannot comply. The existence of these costs suggests a potential role of credit constraints in shaping the duration of trade relationships on foreign markets. A well-developed financial system provides the funds to exporters necessary to adjust production processes in order to meet quality and quantity requirements in foreign markets and to maintain long-standing trade relationships. The products with higher needs for financing should benefit the most from a well functioning financial system. This differential effect calls for a difference-in-difference approach initially proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998). As a proxy for demand for financing of agri-food products, the sanitary risk index developed by Jaud et al. (2009) is used. The empirical literature on standards and norms show high costs of compliance, both variable and fixed, for high-value food products (Garcia-Martinez and Poole, 2004; Maskus et al., 2005). The sanitary risk index reflects the propensity of products to fail health and safety controls on the European Union (EU) market. Given the high costs of compliance, the sanitary risk index captures the demand for external financing to comply with such regulations.The prediction is empirically tested examining the export survival of different agri-food products from firms operating in Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Senegal and Tanzania. The results suggest that agri-food products that require more financing to keep up with food safety regulation of the destination market, indeed sustain longer in foreign market, when they are exported from countries with better developed financial markets.Chapter 3 analyzes the link between financial markets and efficiency of resource allocation in an economy. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long term growth. In this chapter, inefficient exporting patterns are analyzed through the lens of the agency theories from the corporate finance literature. Managers may pursue projects with negative net present values because their perquisites or even their job might depend on them. Exporting activities are particularly prone to this problem. Business related to foreign markets involves both high levels of additional spending and strong incentives for managers to overinvest. Rational managers might have incentives to push for exports that use country's scarce factors which is suboptimal from a social point of view. Export subsidies might further skew the incentives towards inefficient exporting. Management can divert the export subsidies into investments promoting inefficient exporting.Corporate finance literature stresses the disciplining role of outside debt in counteracting the internal pressures to divert such "free cash flow" into unprofitable investments. Managers can lose both their reputation and the control of "their" firm if the unpaid external debt triggers a bankruptcy procedure. The threat of possible failure to satisfy debt service payments pushes the managers toward an efficient use of available resources (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990; Hart and Moore, 1995). The main sources of debt financing in the most countries are banks. The disciplining role of banks might be especially important in the countries suffering from insufficient judicial quality. Banks, in pursuing their rights, rely on comparatively simple legal interventions that can be implemented even by mediocre courts. In addition to their disciplining role, banks can promote efficient exporting patterns in a more direct way by relaxing credit constraints of producers, through screening, identifying and investing in the most profitable investment projects. Therefore, a well-developed domestic financial system, and particular banking system, would help to push a country's exports towards products congruent with its comparative advantage.This prediction is tested looking at the survival of different product categories exported to US market. Products are identified according to the Euclidian distance between their revealed factor intensity and the country's factor endowments. The results suggest that products suffering from a comparative disadvantage (labour-intensive products from capital-abundant countries) survive less on the competitive US market. This pattern is stronger if the exporting country has a well-developed banking system. Thus, a strong banking sector promotes exports consistent with a country comparative advantage.Chapter 4 of my PhD thesis further examines the role of financial markets in fostering efficient resource allocation in an economy. In particular, the allocative efficiency hypothesis is investigated in the context of equity market liberalization.Many empirical studies document a positive and significant effect of financial liberalization on growth (Levchenko et al. 2009; Quinn and Toyoda 2009; Bekaert et al., 2005). However, the decrease in the cost of capital and the associated growth in investment appears rather modest in comparison to the large GDP growth effect (Bekaert and Harvey, 2005; Henry, 2000, 2003). Therefore, financial liberalization may have a positive impact on growth through its effect on the allocation of funds across firms and sectors.Free access to international capital markets allows the largest and most profitable domestic firms to borrow funds in foreign markets (Rajan and Zingales, 2003). As domestic banks loose some of their best clients, they reoptimize their lending practices seeking new clients among small and younger industrial firms. These firms are likely to be more risky than large and established companies. Screening of customers becomes prevalent as the return to screening rises. Banks, ceteris paribus, tend to focus on firms operating in comparative-advantage sectors because they are better risks. Firms in comparative-disadvantage sectors finding it harder to finance their entry into or survival in export markets either exit or refrain from entering export markets. On aggregate, one should therefore expect to see less entry, more exit, and shorter survival on export markets in those sectors after financial liberalization.The paper investigates the effect of financial liberalization on a country's export pattern by comparing the dynamics of entry and exit of different products in a country export portfolio before and after financial liberalization.The results suggest that products that lie far from the country's comparative advantage set tend to disappear relatively faster from the country's export portfolio following the liberalization of financial markets. In other words, financial liberalization tends to rebalance the composition of a country's export portfolio towards the products that intensively use the economy's abundant factors.

Credit Constraints, Firms' Precautionary Investment, and the Business Cycle

This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of firms' precautionary investment behavior in response to the anticipation of future financing constraints. Firms increase their demand for liquid and safe investments in order to alleviate future borrowing constraints and decrease the probability of having to forego future profitable investment opportunities. This results in an increase in the share of short-term projects that produces a temporary increase in output, at the expense of lower long-run investment and future output. I show in a calibrated model that this behavior is at the source of a novel and powerful channel of shock transmission of productivity shocks that produces short-run dampening and long-run propagation. Furthermore, it can account for the observed business cycle patterns of the aggregate and firm-level composition of investment.