The effect of national governance codes on firm disclosure practices : evidence from analyst earnings forecasts

This study examines whether voluntary national governance codes have a significant effect on company disclosure practices. Two direct effects of the codes are expected: 1) an overall improvement in company disclosure practices, which is greater when the codes have a greater emphasis on disclosure; and 2) a leveling out of disclosure practices across companies (i.e., larger improvements in companies that were previously poorer disclosers) due to the codes new comply-or-explain requirements. The codes are also expected to have an indirect effect on disclosure practices through their effect on company governance practices. The results show that the introduction of the codes in eight East Asian countries has been associated with lower analyst forecast error and a leveling out of disclosure practices across companies. The codes are also found to have an indirect effect on company disclosure practices through their effect on board independence. This study shows that a regulatory approach to improving disclosure practices is not always necessary. Voluntary national governance codes are found to have both a significant direct effect and a significant indirect effect on company disclosure practices. In addition, the results indicate that analysts in Asia do react to changes in disclosure practices, so there is an incentive for small companies and family-owned companies to further improve their disclosure practices.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Setting hospital infection control policy : a decision-making framework incorporating health economics and healthcare epidemiology

Background: Reducing rates of healthcare acquired infection has been identified by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care as a national priority. One of the goals is the prevention of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). At least 3,500 cases of CR-BSI occur annually in Australian hospitals, resulting in unnecessary deaths and costs to the healthcare system between $25.7 and $95.3 million. Two approaches to preventing these infections have been proposed: use of antimicrobial catheters (A-CVCs); or a catheter care and management ‘bundle’. Given finite healthcare budgets, decisions about the optimal infection control policy require consideration of the effectiveness and value for money of each approach. Objectives: The aim of this research is to use a rational economic framework to inform efficient infection control policy relating to the prevention of CR-BSI in the intensive care unit. It addresses three questions relating to decision-making in this area: 1. Is additional investment in activities aimed at preventing CR-BSI an efficient use of healthcare resources? 2. What is the optimal infection control strategy from amongst the two major approaches that have been proposed to prevent CR-BSI? 3. What uncertainty is there in this decision and can a research agenda to improve decision-making in this area be identified? Methods: A decision analytic model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify an efficient approach to preventing CR-BSI in Queensland Health intensive care units. A Markov model was developed in conjunction with a panel of clinical experts which described the epidemiology and prognosis of CR-BSI. The model was parameterised using data systematically identified from the published literature and extracted from routine databases. The quality of data used in the model and its validity to clinical experts and sensitivity to modelling assumptions was assessed. Two separate economic evaluations were conducted. The first evaluation compared all commercially available A-CVCs alongside uncoated catheters to identify which was cost-effective for routine use. The uncertainty in this decision was estimated along with the value of collecting further information to inform the decision. The second evaluation compared the use of A-CVCs to a catheter care bundle. We were unable to estimate the cost of the bundle because it is unclear what the full resource requirements are for its implementation, and what the value of these would be in an Australian context. As such we undertook a threshold analysis to identify the cost and effectiveness thresholds at which a hypothetical bundle would dominate the use of A-CVCs under various clinical scenarios. Results: In the first evaluation of A-CVCs, the findings from the baseline analysis, in which uncertainty is not considered, show that the use of any of the four A-CVCs will result in health gains accompanied by cost-savings. The MR catheters dominate the baseline analysis generating 1.64 QALYs and cost-savings of $130,289 per 1.000 catheters. With uncertainty, and based on current information, the MR catheters remain the optimal decision and return the highest average net monetary benefits ($948 per catheter) relative to all other catheter types. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested, however, the probability of error in this conclusion is high, 62% in the baseline scenario. Using a value of $40,000 per QALY, the expected value of perfect information associated with this decision is $7.3 million. An analysis of the expected value of perfect information for individual parameters suggests that it may be worthwhile for future research to focus on providing better estimates of the mortality attributable to CR-BSI and the effectiveness of both SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters. In the second evaluation of the catheter care bundle relative to A-CVCs, the results which do not consider uncertainty indicate that a bundle must achieve a relative risk of CR-BSI of at least 0.45 to be cost-effective relative to MR catheters. If the bundle can reduce rates of infection from 2.5% to effectively zero, it is cost-effective relative to MR catheters if national implementation costs are less than $2.6 million ($56,610 per ICU). If the bundle can achieve a relative risk of 0.34 (comparable to that reported in the literature) it is cost-effective, relative to MR catheters, if costs over an 18 month period are below $613,795 nationally ($13,343 per ICU). Once uncertainty in the decision is considered, the cost threshold for the bundle increases to $2.2 million. Therefore, if each of the 46 Level III ICUs could implement an 18 month catheter care bundle for less than $47,826 each, this approach would be cost effective relative to A-CVCs. However, the uncertainty is substantial and the probability of error in concluding that the bundle is the cost-effective approach at a cost of $2.2 million is 89%. Conclusions: This work highlights that infection control to prevent CR-BSI is an efficient use of healthcare resources in the Australian context. If there is no further investment in infection control, an opportunity cost is incurred, which is the potential for a more efficient healthcare system. Minocycline/rifampicin catheters are the optimal choice of antimicrobial catheter for routine use in Australian Level III ICUs, however, if a catheter care bundle implemented in Australia was as effective as those used in the large studies in the United States it would be preferred over the catheters if it was able to be implemented for less than $47,826 per Level III ICU. Uncertainty is very high in this decision and arises from multiple sources. There are likely greater costs to this uncertainty for A-CVCs, which may carry hidden costs, than there are for a catheter care bundle, which is more likely to provide indirect benefits to clinical practice and patient safety. Research into the mortality attributable to CR-BSI, the effectiveness of SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters and the cost and effectiveness of a catheter care bundle in Australia should be prioritised to reduce uncertainty in this decision. This thesis provides the economic evidence to inform one area of infection control, but there are many other infection control decisions for which information about the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions does not exist. This work highlights some of the challenges and benefits to generating and using economic evidence for infection control decision-making and provides support for commissioning more research into the cost-effectiveness of infection control.

Osteoarthritic cartilage chondrocytes alter subchondral bone osteoblast differentiation via MAPK signalling pathway involving ERK1/2

Osteoarthritic subchondral bone is characterized by abnormal bone density and enhanced production of bone turnover markers, an indication of osteoblast dysfunction. Several studies have proposed that pathological changes in articular cartilage influence the subchondral bone changes, which are typical of the progression of osteoarthritis; however, direct evidence of this has yet to be reported. The aim of the present study was to investigate what effects articular cartilage cells, isolated from normal and osteoarthritic joints, may have on the subchondral bone osteoblast phenotype, and also the potential involvement of the mitogen activated protein kinase (MAPK) signalling pathway during this process. Our results suggest that chondrocytes isolated from a normal joint inhibited osteoblast differentiation, whereas chondrocytes isolated from an osteoarthritic joint enhanced osteoblast differentiation, both via a direct and indirect cell interaction mechanisms. Furthermore, the interaction of subchondral bone osteoblasts with osteoarthritic chondrocyte conditioned media appeared to significantly activate ERK1/2 phosphorylation. On the other hand, conditioned media from normal articular chondrocytes did not affect ERK1/2 phosphorylation. Inhibition of the MAPK–ERK1/2 pathways reversed the phenotype changes of subchondral bone osteoblast, which would otherwise be induced by the conditioned media from osteoarthritic chondrocytes. In conclusion, our findings provide evidence that osteoarthritic chondrocytes affect subchondral bone osteoblast metabolism via an ERK1/2 dependent pathway.

The impact of corporate venturing on a firm's competence modes

In this conceptual paper we investigate how corporate venturing influences an organization's competences. The impact of various types of corporate ventures on the portfolio of strategic options of a firm's competence modes (Sanchez, 2004a; Sanchez & Heene, 2002) will be assessed by distinguishing two fundamentally different dimensions of corporate venturing: technology and product (Block & MacMillan, 1993). We argue that the level of product and factor market dynamism mediates the effect of corporate venturing on a firm's competence modes. Corporate ventures that significantly increase the level of product or factor market dynamics will increase the flexibility in all five competence modes. These ventures have a direct effect on the lower-order competence modes and an indirect, lagged effect on higher-order competence modes through feedback loops. The developed framework and the propositions contribute to managing the ability of a firm to change its coordination, resource, and operating flexibility in order to sustain value creation.

Determinants of participation restriction among community dwelling stroke survivors : a path analysis

Background: Apart from promoting physical recovery and assisting in activities of daily living, a major challenge in stroke rehabilitation is to minimize psychosocial morbidity and to promote the reintegration of stroke survivors into their family and community. The identification of key factors influencing long-term outcome are essential in developing more effective rehabilitation measures for reducing stroke-related morbidity. The aim of this study was to test a theoretical model of predictors of participation restriction which included the direct and indirect effects between psychosocial outcomes, physical outcome, and socio-demographic variables at 12 months after stroke.--------- Methods: Data were collected from 188 stroke survivors at 12 months following their discharge from one of the two rehabilitation hospitals in Hong Kong. The settings included patients' homes and residential care facilities. Path analysis was used to test a hypothesized model of participation restriction at 12 months.---------- Results: The path coefficients show functional ability having the largest direct effect on participation restriction (β = 0.51). The results also show that more depressive symptoms (β = -0.27), low state self-esteem (β = 0.20), female gender (β = 0.13), older age (β = -0.11) and living in a residential care facility (β = -0.12) have a direct effect on participation restriction. The explanatory variables accounted for 71% of the variance in explaining participation restriction at 12 months.---------- Conclusion: Identification of stroke survivors at risk of high levels of participation restriction, depressive symptoms and low self-esteem will assist health professionals to devise appropriate rehabilitation interventions that target improving both physical and psychosocial functioning.

The consequences of substance use among gay and bisexual men : a consensual qualitative research analysis

- Background Substance use is common among gay/bisexual men and is associated with significant health risks (e.g. HIV transmission). The consequences of substance use, across the range of substances commonly used, have received little attention. The purpose of this study is to map participant’s beliefs about the effects of substance use to inform prevention, health promotion and clinical interventions. - Methods Participants were interviewed about experiences regarding their substance use and recruited through medical and sexual health clinics. Data were collected though a consumer panel and individual interviews. Responses regarding perceived consequences of substance use were coded using Consensual Qualitative Research (CQR) methodology. - Results Most participants reported lifetime use of alcohol, cannabis, stimulants and amyl nitrite, and recent alcohol and cannabis use. A wide range of themes were identified regarding participant’s thoughts, emotions and behaviours (including sexual behaviours) secondary to substance use, including: cognitive functioning, mood, social interaction, physical effects, sexual activity, sexual risk-taking, perception of sexual experience, arousal, sensation, relaxation, disinhibition, energy/activity level and numbing. Analyses indicated several consequences were consistent across substance types (e.g. cognitive impairment, enhanced mood), whereas others were highly specific to a given substance (e.g. heightened arousal post amyl nitrite use). - Conclusions Prevention and interventions need to consider the variety of effects of substance use in tailoring effective education programs to reduce harms. A diversity of consequences appear to have direct and indirect impacts on decision-making, sexual activity and risk-taking. Findings lend support for the role of specific beliefs (e.g. expectancies) related to substance use on risk-related cognitions, emotions and behaviours.

Do board contacts matter? : an analysis of the relationship between boards of directors’ ties and the performance of Australia’s largest companies.

Boards of directors are thought to provide access to a wealth of knowledge and resources for the companies they serve, and are considered important to corporate governance. Under the Resource Based View (RBV) of the firm (Wernerfelt, 1984) boards are viewed as a strategic resource available to firms. As a consequence there has been a significant research effort aimed at establishing a link between board attributes and company performance. In this thesis I explore and extend the study of interlocking directorships (Mizruchi, 1996; Scott 1991a) by examining the links between directors’ opportunity networks and firm performance. Specifically, I use resource dependence theory (Pfeffer & Salancik, 1978) and social capital theory (Burt, 1980b; Coleman, 1988) as the basis for a new measure of a board’s opportunity network. I contend that both directors’ formal company ties and their social ties determine a director’s opportunity network through which they are able to access and mobilise resources for their firms. This approach is based on recent studies that suggest the measurement of interlocks at the director level, rather than at the firm level, may be a more reliable indicator of this phenomenon. This research uses publicly available data drawn from Australia’s top-105 listed companies and their directors in 1999. I employ Social Network Analysis (SNA) (Scott, 1991b) using the UCINET software to analyse the individual director’s formal and social networks. SNA is used to measure a the number of ties a director has to other directors in the top-105 company director network at both one and two degrees of separation, that is, direct ties and indirect (or ‘friend of a friend’) ties. These individual measures of director connectedness are aggregated to produce a board-level network metric for comparison with measures of a firm’s performance using multiple regression analysis. Performance is measured with accounting-based and market-based measures. Findings indicate that better-connected boards are associated with higher market-based company performance (measured by Tobin’s q). However, weaker and mostly unreliable associations were found for accounting-based performance measure ROA. Furthermore, formal (or corporate) network ties are a stronger predictor of market performance than total network ties (comprising social and corporate ties). Similarly, strong ties (connectedness at degree-1) are better predictors of performance than weak ties (connectedness at degree-2). My research makes four contributions to the literature on director interlocks. First, it extends a new way of measuring a board’s opportunity network based on the director rather than the company as the unit of interlock. Second, it establishes evidence of a relationship between market-based measures of firm performance and the connectedness of that firm’s board. Third, it establishes that director’s formal corporate ties matter more to market-based firm performance than their social ties. Fourth, it establishes that director’s strong direct ties are more important to market-based performance than weak ties. The thesis concludes with implications for research and practice, including a more speculative interpretation of these results. In particular, I raise the possibility of reverse causality – that is networked directors seek to join high-performing companies. Thus, the relationship may be a result of symbolic action by companies seeking to increase the legitimacy of their firms rather than a reflection of the social capital available to the companies. This is an important consideration worthy of future investigation.

15 year old volens to BMX riding risks

The Queensland Court of Appeal recently heard a case that raised the defence of volenti on fit injuria. By a majority of 2:1 the court held in Leyden v Caboolture Shire Council [2007] QCA 134 (20 April 2007) that the defence of volenti was established and defeated the action in negligence for damages for personal injury. The facts of the case were quite simple. The plaintiff was 15 years old when he was injured at the Bluebell Park which was controlled and managed by the Caboolture Shire Council (the defendant). The park had a BMX track – built and maintained by the defendant. At trial it was held that although the defendant owed a duty of care to entrants, a duty was not owed to the plaintiff. The judge found that the plaintiff was different to other entrants who used facilities provided by a council in a public park. The plaintiff was not relying upon the defendant to provide a BMX track with jumps that were reasonably safe as the evidence was that the track was regularly altered by third parties and the plaintiff knew that. Therefore it was reasoned that the plaintiff was relying upon the ability of the third parties who modified the jump and his own ability to use it, not the ability of the defendant to provide a reasonably safe track (at [10]). The trial judge also held that if a duty was owed, the defence of volenti applied so as to defeat the claim for damages. This was based upon the evidence that the plaintiff knew of the modification of the jump by third parties and knew of the risk. It was held that the plaintiff ‘had the appropriate subjective appreciation of the risk’ (at [11]).

A new approach to assessing Malaysian contractor satisfaction levels

The extent of poor project outcomes is a recurring issue for construction industries worldwide. One of the main causes of these and project failure seems to be the inability of contractors to provide a high level of service quality to the project team. In Malaysia, design failures have also been identified as a further contributory factor. To overcome this, different types of subjective performance measurement have been progressively developed. These approaches are typically concerned with client satisfaction, customer satisfaction, home buyer satisfaction and occupant satisfaction, but very seldom consider contractor satisfaction. This paper examines the implications of this, and what is involved in developing satisfaction measures based on contractor perception instead of the typical sole concern with client performance. As a result, other attributes such as participants’ performance, business performance, project performance, external factors and contractor characteristics are also examined. Several potential attributes are derived from interviews among Malaysian contractors, namely: performance (direct attributes) and contractor characteristics (indirect attributes) that possibly influence contractor satisfaction levels. These attributes are then developed to improve the existing conceptual framework. The developed framework is expected to help the project team in performing projects more efficiently, maintaining service quality and improving relationships between participants. In addition, the findings of the paper should assist contractors enhance competitiveness, improve their image and create more job opportunities in the future.

Social Participation of Community Dwelling Stroke Survivors [Published Abstract: From the Quality of Care and Outcomes Research in Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke Conference 2009]

Disability following a stroke can impose various restrictions on patients’ attempts at participating in life roles. The measurement of social participation, for instance, is important in estimating recovery and assessing quality of care at the community level. Thus, the identification of factors influencing social participation is essential in developing effective measures for promoting the reintegration of stroke survivors into the community. Data were collected from 188 stroke survivors (mean age 71.7 years) 12 months after discharge from a stroke rehabilitation hospital. Of these survivors, 128 (61 %) had suffered a first ever stroke, and 81 (43 %) had a right hemisphere lesion. Most (n = 156, 83 %) were living in their own home, though 32 (17 %) were living in residential care facilities. Path analysis was used to test a hypothesized model of participation restriction which included the direct and indirect effects between social, psychological and physical outcomes and demographic variables. Participation restriction was the dependent variable. Exogenous independent variables were age, functional ability, living arrangement and gender. Endogenous independent variables were depressive symptoms, state self-esteem and social support satisfaction. The path coefficients showed functional ability having the largest direct effect on participation restriction. The results also showed that more depressive symptoms, low state self-esteem, female gender, older age and living in a residential care facility had a direct effect on participation restriction. The explanatory variables accounted for 71% of the variance in explaining participation restriction. Prediction models have empirical and practical applications such as suggesting important factors to be considered in promoting stroke recovery. The findings suggest that interventions offered over the course of rehabilitation should be aimed at improving functional ability and promoting psychological aspects of recovery. These are likely to enhance stroke survivors resume or maximize their social participation so that they may fulfill productive and positive life roles.

The effect of graded levels of exercise on energy intake and balance in free-living men, consuming their normal diet

Objective: To assess the effect of graded increases in exercised-induced energy expenditure (EE) on appetite, energy intake (EI), total daily EE and body weight in men living in their normal environment and consuming their usual diets. Design: Within-subject, repeated measures design. Six men (mean (s.d.) age 31.0 (5.0) y; weight 75.1 (15.96) kg; height 1.79 (0.10) m; body mass index (BMI) 23.3(2.4) kg/m2), were each studied three times during a 9 day protocol, corresponding to prescriptions of no exercise, (control) (Nex; 0 MJ/day), medium exercise level (Mex; ~1.6 MJ/day) and high exercise level (Hex; ~3.2 MJ/day). On days 1-2 subjects were given a medium fat (MF) maintenance diet (1.6 ´ resting metabolic rate (RMR)). Measurements: On days 3-9 subjects self-recorded dietary intake using a food diary and self-weighed intake. EE was assessed by continual heart rate monitoring, using the modified FLEX method. Subjects' HR (heart rate) was individually calibrated against submaximal VO2 during incremental exercise tests at the beginning and end of each 9 day study period. Respiratory exchange was measured by indirect calorimetry. Subjects completed hourly hunger ratings during waking hours to record subjective sensations of hunger and appetite. Body weight was measured daily. Results: EE amounted to 11.7, 12.9 and 16.8 MJ/day (F(2,10)=48.26; P<0.001 (s.e.d=0.55)) on the Nex, Mex and Hex treatments, respectively. The corresponding values for EI were 11.6, 11.8 and 11.8 MJ/day (F(2,10)=0.10; P=0.910 (s.e.d.=0.10)), respectively. There were no treatment effects on hunger, appetite or body weight, but there was evidence of weight loss on the Hex treatment. Conclusion: Increasing EE did not lead to compensation of EI over 7 days. However, total daily EE tended to decrease over time on the two exercise treatments. Lean men appear able to tolerate a considerable negative energy balance, induced by exercise, over 7 days without invoking compensatory increases in EI.