Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For example, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously. These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency. ©2006 Society for Conservation Biology.

Pan-Plasmodium band sensitivity for Plasmodium falciparum detection in combination malaria rapid diagnostic tests and implications for clinical management

Background: Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are appropriate for case management, but persistent antigenaemia is a concern for HRP2-detecting RDTs in endemic areas. It has been suggested that pan-pLDH test bands on combination RDTs could be used to distinguish persistent antigenaemia from active Plasmodium falciparum infection, however this assumes all active infections produce positive results on both bands of RDTs, an assertion that has not been demonstrated. Methods: In this study, data generated during the WHO-FIND product testing programme for malaria RDTs was reviewed to investigate the reactivity of individual test bands against P. falciparum in 18 combination RDTs. Each product was tested against multiple wild-type P. falciparum only samples. Antigen levels were measured by quantitative ELISA for HRP2, pLDH and aldolase. Results: When tested against P. falciparum samples at 200 parasites/μL, 92% of RDTs were positive; 57% of these on both the P. falciparum and pan bands, while 43% were positive on the P. falciparum band only. There was a relationship between antigen concentration and band positivity; ≥4 ng/mL of HRP2 produced positive results in more than 95% of P. falciparum bands, while ≥45 ng/mL of pLDH was required for at least 90% of pan bands to be positive. Conclusions: In active P. falciparum infections it is common for combination RDTs to return a positive HRP2 band combined with a negative pan-pLDH band, and when both bands are positive, often the pan band is faint. Thus active infections could be missed if the presence of a HRP2 band in the absence of a pan band is interpreted as being caused solely by persistent antigenaemia.

Psychological health and the risk of diabetes mellitus in Australian women: A 21-year prospective study

Background Symptoms of depression can be recurrent or limited to one episode. This study discusses the prospective association between psychological health, measured as change in depression symptoms, and the risk of diabetes mellitus in Australian women. Methods Data obtained from the Mater-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy. Depression was measured using the Delusions-Symptoms: States Inventory. To examine possible transitions over time, depression was grouped into four categories and assessed at different phases over the 21-year period. Multiple logistic regression models and sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of our analytical strategy were performed. Results Three hundred and one women reported diabetes 21 years after the index pregnancy. Almost one-third of the women who reported depression symptoms continued to report these at a subsequent follow-up (FU) phase. About 1 in 20 women who had not reported depression symptoms at the 5-year FU did so at the subsequent 14-year FU. In prospective analyses, we did not find a significant association between diabetes and negative change (not depressed to depressed, at subsequent phase); however, for women with positive history of symptoms of depression and women with persistent symptoms, there was a 1.97-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14–3.40) to 2.23-fold (95% CI: 1.09–4.57) greater risk of diabetes. Conclusions Our study suggests that an increased risk of diabetes is significantly associated with persistent depression symptoms. It highlights the importance of recognizing depression symptoms in terms of women's psychological wellbeing and thus provides a basis for targeting those most at risk.

Vascular endothelial growth factor is an autocrine growth factor, signaling through neuropilin-1 in non-small cell lung cancer

Background The VEGF pathway has become an important therapeutic target in lung cancer, where VEGF has long been established as a potent pro-angiogenic growth factor expressed by many types of tumors. While Bevacizumab (Avastin) has proven successful in increasing the objective tumor response rate and in prolonging progression and overall survival in patients with NSCLC, the survival benefit is however relatively short and the majority of patients eventually relapse. The current use of tyrosine kinase inhibitors alone and in combination with chemotherapy has been underwhelming, highlighting an urgent need for new targeted therapies. In this study, we examined the mechanisms of VEGF-mediated survival in NSCLC cells and the role of the Neuropilin receptors in this process. Methods NSCLC cells were screened for expression of VEGF and its receptors. The effects of recombinant VEGF and its blockade on lung tumor cell proliferation and cell cycle were examined. Phosphorylation of Akt and Erk1/2 proteins was examined by high content analysis and confocal microscopy. The effects of silencing VEGF on cell proliferation and survival signaling were also assessed. A Neuropilin-1 stable-transfected cell line was generated. Cell growth characteristics in addition to pAkt and pErk1/2 signaling were studied in response to VEGF and its blockade. Tumor growth studies were carried out in nude mice following subcutaneous injection of NP1 over-expressing cells. Results Inhibition of the VEGF pathway with anti-VEGF and anti-VEGFR-2 antibodies or siRNA to VEGF, NP1 and NP2 resulted in growth inhibition of NP1 positive tumor cell lines associated with down-regulation of PI3K and MAPK kinase signaling. Stable transfection of NP1 negative cells with NP1 induced proliferation in vitro, which was further enhanced by exogenous VEGF. In vivo, NP1 over-expressing cells significantly increased tumor growth in xenografts compared to controls. Conclusions Our data demonstrate that VEGF is an autocrine growth factor in NSCLC signaling, at least in part, through NP1. Targeting this VEGF receptor may offer potential as a novel therapeutic approach and also support the evaluation of the role of NP1 as a biomarker predicting sensitivity or resistance to VEGF and VEGFR-targeted therapies in the clinical arena.

Antioxidant responses to an acute ultra-endurance exercise: Impact on DNA stability and indications for an increased need for nutritive antioxidants in the early recovery phase

Antioxidant requirements have neither been defined for endurance nor been defined for ultra-endurance athletes. To verify whether an acute bout of ultra-endurance exercise modifies the need for nutritive antioxidants, we aimed (1) to investigate the changes of endogenous and exogenous antioxidants in response to an Ironman triathlon; (2) to particularise the relevance of antioxidant responses to the indices of oxidatively damaged blood lipids, blood cell compounds and lymphocyte DNA and (3) to examine whether potential time-points of increased susceptibility to oxidative damage are associated with alterations in the antioxidant status. Blood that was collected from forty-two well-trained male athletes 2 d pre-race, immediately post-race, and 1, 5 and 19 d later was sampled. The key findings of the present study are as follows: (1) Immediately post-race, vitamin C, alpha-tocopherol, and levels of the Trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity, the ferric reducing ability of plasma and the oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) assays increased significantly. Exercise-induced changes in the plasma antioxidant capacity were associated with changes in uric acid, bilirubin and vitamin C. (2) Significant inverse correlations between ORAC levels and indices of oxidatively damaged DNA immediately and 1 d post-race suggest a protective role of the acute antioxidant responses in DNA stability. (3) Significant decreases in carotenoids and gamma-tocopherol 1 d post-race indicate that the antioxidant intake during the first 24 h of recovery following an acute ultra-endurance exercise requires specific attention. Furthermore, the present study illustrates the importance of a diversified and well-balanced diet to maintain a physiological antioxidant status in ultra-endurance athletes in reference to recommendations.

Increased intra-cortical porosity reduces bone stiffness and strength in pediatric patients with osteogenesis imperfecta

Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a heritable disease occurring in one out of every 20,000 births. Although it is known that Type I collagen mutation in OI leads to increased bone fragility, the mechanism of this increased susceptibility to fracture is not clear. The aim of this study was to assess the microstructure of cortical bone fragments from patients with osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) using polarized light microscopy, and to correlate microstructural observations with the results of previously performed mechanical compression tests on bone from the same source. Specimens of cortical bone were harvested from the lower limbs of three (3) OI patients at the time of surgery, and were divided into two groups. Group 1 had been subjected to previous micro-mechanical compression testing, while Group 2 had not been subjected to any prior testing. Polarized light microscopy revealed disorganized bone collagen architecture as has been previously observed, as well as a large increase in the areal porosity of the bone compared to typical values for healthy cortical bone, with large (several hundred micron sized), asymmetrical pores. Importantly, the areal porosity of the OI bone samples in Group 1 appears to correlate strongly with their previously measured apparent Young's modulus and compressive strength. Taken together with prior nanoindentation studies on OI bone tissue, the results of this study suggest that increased intra-cortical porosity is responsible for the reduction in macroscopic mechanical properties of OI cortical bone, and therefore that in vivo imaging modalities with resolutions of ~ 100 μm or less could potentially be used to non-invasively assess bone strength in OI patients. Although the number of subjects in this study is small, these results highlight the importance of further studies in OI bone by groups with access to human OI tissue in order to clarify the relationship between increased porosity and reduced macroscopic mechanical integrity.

Psychological predictors of opportunistic snacking in the absence of hunger

Increased frequency of eating in the absence of homeostatic need, notably through snacking, is an important contributor to overconsumption and may be facilitated by increased availability of palatable food in the obesogenic environment. Opportunistic initiation of snacking is likely to be subject to individual differences, although these are infrequently studied in laboratory-based research paradigms. This study examined psychological factors associated with opportunistic initiation of snacking, and predictors of intake in the absence of homeostatic need. Fifty adults (mean age 34.5 years, mean BMI 23.9 kg/m2, 56% female) participated in a snack taste test in which they ate a chocolate snack to satiation, after which they were offered an unanticipated opportunity to initiate a second eating episode. Trait and behavioural measures of self control, sensitivity to reward, dietary restraint and disinhibited eating were taken. Results showed that, contrary to expectations, those who initiated snacking were better at inhibitory control compared with those who did not initiate. However, amongst participants who initiated snacking, intake (kcal) was predicted by higher food reward sensitivity, impulsivity and BMI. These findings suggest that snacking initiation in the absence of hunger is an important contributor to overconsumption. Consideration of the individual differences promoting initiation of eating may aid in reducing elevated eating frequency in at-risk individuals.

Putting an "end" to the motor cortex representations of action words

Language processing is an example of implicit learning of multiple statistical cues that provide probabilistic information regarding word structure and use. Much of the current debate about language embodiment is devoted to how action words are represented in the brain, with motor cortex activity evoked by these words assumed to selectively reflect conceptual content and/or its simulation. We investigated whether motor cortex activity evoked by manual action words (e.g., caress) might reflect sensitivity to probabilistic orthographic-phonological cues to grammatical category embedded within individual words. We first review neuroimaging data demonstrating that nonwords evoke activity much more reliably than action words along the entire motor strip, encompassing regions proposed to be action category specific. Using fMRI, we found that disyllabic words denoting manual actions evoked increased motor cortex activity compared with non-body-part-related words (e.g., canyon), activity which overlaps that evoked by observing and executing hand movements. This result is typically interpreted in support of language embodiment. Crucially, we also found that disyllabic nonwords containing endings with probabilistic cues predictive of verb status (e.g., -eve) evoked increased activity compared with nonwords with endings predictive of noun status (e.g., -age) in the identical motor area. Thus, motor cortex responses to action words cannot be assumed to selectively reflect conceptual content and/or its simulation. Our results clearly demonstrate motor cortex activity reflects implicit processing of ortho-phonological statistical regularities that help to distinguish a word's grammatical class.

Can biophilic urbanism deliver strong economic and social benefits in cities? An economic and policy invetigations into the increased use of natural elements in urban design

Biophilic urbanism, or urban design that reflects humanity’s innate need for nature, stands to make significant contributions to a range of national, state and local government policies related to climate change mitigation and adaptation, by investigating ways in which nature can be integrated into, around and on top of buildings. Potential benefits of such design include reducing the heat island effect, reducing energy consumption for thermal control, enhancing urban biodiversity, improving well being and productivity, improving water cycle management, and assisting in the response to growing needs for densification and revitalisation of cities. This report will give an overview of the concept of biophilia and consider enablers and disablers to its application to urban planning and design. The paper will present findings from stakeholder engagement and a series of detailed case studies, related to a consideration of the economics of the use of biophilic elements (direct and indirect).

A mitochondrial genome phylogeny of owlet moths (Lepidoptera: Noctuoidea), and examination of the utility of mitochondrial genomes for lepidopteran phylogenetics

A phylogenetic hypothesis for the lepidopteran superfamily Noctuoidea was inferred based on the complete mitochondrial (mt) genomes of 12 species (six newly sequenced). The monophyly of each noctuoid family in the latest classification was well supported. Novel and robust relationships were recovered at the family level, in contrast to previous analyses using nuclear genes. Erebidae was recovered as sister to (Nolidae+(Euteliidae+Noctuidae)), while Notodontidae was sister to all these taxa (the putatively basalmost lineage Oenosandridae was not included). In order to improve phylogenetic resolution using mt genomes, various analytical approaches were tested: Bayesian inference (BI) vs. maximum likelihood (ML), excluding vs. including RNA genes (rRNA or tRNA), and Gblocks treatment. The evolutionary signal within mt genomes had low sensitivity to analytical changes. Inference methods had the most significant influence. Inclusion of tRNAs positively increased the congruence of topologies, while inclusion of rRNAs resulted in a range of phylogenetic relationships varying depending on other analytical factors. The two Gblocks parameter settings had opposite effects on nodal support between the two inference methods. The relaxed parameter (GBRA) resulted in higher support values in BI analyses, while the strict parameter (GBDH) resulted in higher support values in ML analyses.

Enhanced earth grid performance by improved conductor properties

Encroaching built environment with increased fault current levels is demanding a robust design approach and prolonged improved performance of the earth grid. With this in mind, the aim of the project was to perform a sensitivity analysis of the earth grid and an earthing performance evaluation with graphene coated conductors. Subsequent to these, a conceptual design to continuously monitor the performance of the earth grid was developed. In this study, earth grid design standards were compared to evaluate their appropriate use in determining the safety condition. A process to grow a thin film of graphene on the surface of cylindrical copper rods was developed to evaluate earthing performance in terms of conductivity and corrosion susceptibility.

Assessing specific deterrence effects of increased speeding penalties using four measures of recidivism

Traffic law enforcement sanctions can impact on road user behaviour through general and specific deterrence mechanisms. The manner in which specific deterrence can influence recidivist behaviour can be conceptualised in different ways. While any reduction in speeding will have road safety benefits, the ways in which a ‘reduction’ is determined deserves greater methodological attention and has implications for countermeasure evaluation more generally. The primary aim of this research was to assess the specific deterrent impact of penalty increases for speeding offences in Queensland, Australia, in 2003 on two cohorts of drivers detected for speeding prior to and after the penalty changes were investigated. Since the literature is relatively silent on how to assess recidivism in the speeding context, the secondary research aim was to contribute to the literature regarding ways to conceptualise and measure specific deterrence in the speeding context. We propose a novel way of operationalising four measures which reflect different ways in which a specific deterrence effect could be conceptualised: (1) the proportion of offenders who re-offended in the follow up period; (2) the overall frequency of re-offending in the follow up period; (3) the length of delay to re-offence among those who re-offended; and (4) the average number of re-offences during the follow up period among those who re-offended. Consistent with expectations, results suggested an absolute deterrent effect of penalty changes, as evidenced by significant reductions in the proportion of drivers who re-offended and the overall frequency of re-offending, although effect sizes were small. Contrary to expectations, however, there was no evidence of a marginal specific deterrent effect among those who re-offended, with a significant reduction in the length of time to re-offence and no significant change in the average number of offences committed. Additional exploratory analyses investigating potential influences of the severity of the index offence, offence history, and method of detection revealed mixed results. Access to additional data from various sources suggested that the main findings were not influenced by changes in speed enforcement activity, public awareness of penalty changes, or driving exposure during the study period. Study limitations and recommendations for future research are discussed with a view to promoting more extensive evaluations of penalty changes and better understanding of how such changes may impact on motorists’ perceptions of enforcement and sanctions, as well as on recidivist behaviour.

Finnish HLA studies confirm the increased risk conferred by HLA-B27 homozygosity in ankylosing spondylitis

Objective: To determine the influence of HLA-B27 homozygosity and HLA-DRB1 alleles in the susceptibility to, and severity of, ankylosing spondylitis in a Finnish population. Methods: 673 individuals from 261 families with ankylosing spondylitis were genotyped for HLA-DRB1 alleles and HLA-B27 heterozygosity/ homozygosity. The frequencies of HLA-B27 homozygotes in probands from these families were compared with the expected number of HLA-B27 homozygotes in controls under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE). The effect of HLA-DRB1 alleles was assessed using a logistic regression procedure conditioned on HLA-B27 and case-control analysis. Results: HLA-B27 was detected in 93% of cases of ankylosing spondylitis. An overrepresentation of HLA-B27 homozygotes was noted in ankylosing spondylitis (11%) compared with the expected number of HLA-B27 homozygotes under HWE (4%) (odds ratio (OR) = 3.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.6 to 6.8), p = 0.002). HLA-B27 homozygosity was marginally associated with reduced BASDAI (HLA-B27 homozygotes, 4.5 (1.6); HLA-B27 heterozygotes, 5.4 (1.8) (mean (SD)), p = 0.05). Acute anterior uveitis (AAU) was present in significantly more HLA-B27 positive cases (50%) than HLA-B27 negative cases (16%) (OR = 5.4 (1.7 to 17), p<0.004). HLA-B27 positive cases had a lower average age of symptom onset (26.7 (8.0) years) compared with HLA-B27 negative cases (35.7 (11.2) years) (p<0.0001). Conclusions: HLA-627 homozygosity is associated with a moderately increased risk of ankylosing spondylitis compared with HLA-β27 heterozygosity. HLA-B27 positive cases had an earlier age of onset of ankylosing spondylitis than HLA-B27 negative cases and were more likely to develop AAU. HLA-DRB1 alleles may influence the age of symptom onset of ankylosing spondylitis.

Increased risk of emergency hospital admissions for children with renal diseases during heatwaves in Brisbane, Australia

Background Heatwaves have a significant impact on population health including both morbidity and mortality. In this study we examined the association between heatwaves and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) for renal diseases in children (aged 0–14 years) in Brisbane, Australia. Methods Daily data on EHAs for renal diseases in children and exposure to temperature and air pollution were obtained for Brisbane city from January 1, 1996 to December 31, 2005. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used to compare the risks for renal diseases between heatwave and non-heatwave periods. Results There were 1565 EHAs for renal diseases in children during the study period. Heatwaves exhibited a significant impact on EHAs for renal diseases in children after adjusting for confounding factors (odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.4–9.5). The risk estimates differed with lags and the use of different heatwave definitions. Conclusions There was a significant increase in EHAs for renal diseases in children during heatwaves in Brisbane, a subtropical city where people are well accustomed to warm weather. This finding may have significant implications for pediatric renal care, particularly in subtropical and tropical regions.

SERS-barcoded colloidal gold NP assemblies as imaging agents for use in biodiagnostics

There is a growing need for new biodiagnostics that combine high throughput with enhanced spatial resolution and sensitivity. Gold nanoparticle (NP) assemblies with sub-10 nm particle spacing have the benefits of improving detection sensitivity via Surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) and being of potential use in biomedicine due to their colloidal stability. A promising and versatile approach to form solution-stable NP assemblies involves the use of multi-branched molecular linkers which allows tailoring of the assembly size, hot-spot density and interparticle distance. We have shown that linkers with multiple anchoring end-groups can be successfully employed as a linker to assemble gold NPs into dimers, linear NP chains and clustered NP assemblies. These NP assemblies with diameters of 30-120 nm are stable in solution and perform better as SERS substrates compared with single gold NPs, due to an increased hot-spot density. Thus, tailored gold NP assemblies are potential candidates for use as biomedical imaging agents. We observed that the hot-spot density and in-turn the SERS enhancement is a function of the linker polymer concentration and polymer architecture. New deep Raman techniques like Spatially Offset Raman Spectroscopy (SORS) have emerged that allow detection from beneath diffusely scattering opaque materials, including biological media such as animal tissue. We have been able to demonstrate that the gold NP assemblies could be detected from within both proteinaceous and high lipid containing animal tissue by employing a SORS technique with a backscattered geometry.