The likelihood approach to compare populations : a study on DNA evidence and pitfalls of intuitions

The paper follows on from earlier work [Taroni F and Aitken CGG. Probabilistic reasoning in the law, Part 1: assessment of probabilities and explanation of the value of DNA evidence. Science & Justice 1998; 38: 165-177]. Different explanations of the value of DNA evidence were presented to students from two schools of forensic science and to members of fifteen laboratories all around the world. The responses were divided into two groups; those which came from a school or laboratory identified as Bayesian and those which came from a school or laboratory identified as non-Bayesian. The paper analyses these responses using a likelihood approach. This approach is more consistent with a Bayesian analysis than one based on a frequentist approach, as was reported by Taroni F and Aitken CGG. [Probabilistic reasoning in the law, Part 1: assessment of probabilities and explanation of the value of DNA evidence] in Science & Justice 1998.

Productivity in southern European small firms: When and how work organization complements process innovation

The aim of this paper is to analyse the effects of human capital, advanced manufacturing technologies (AMT), and new work organizational practices on firm productivity, while taking into account the synergies existing between them. This study expands current knowledge in this area in two ways. First, in contrast with previous works, we focus on AMT and not ICT (information and communication technologies). Second, we use a unique employer-employee data set for small firms in a particular area of southern Europe (Catalonia, Spain). Using a small firm data set, allows us to analyse the particular case of small and medium enterprises, since we cannot assume they have the same characteristics as large firms. The results provide evidence in favor of the complementarity hypothesis between human capital, advanced manufacturing technologies, and new work organization practices, although we show that the complementarity effects depend on what type of work organization practices are used by a firm. For small and medium Catalan firms, the only set of work organization practices that improve the benefits of human capital and technology investment are those practices which are more quality oriented, such as quality circles, problem-solving groups or total quality management.

Home Accident Prevention Strategy

The overall aim of the strategy is “To reduce the number of accidental deaths and injuries in the home.” OBJECTIVES OF THE STRATEGY The key objectives are: • to reduce home accidents, particularly in those most at risk; • to raise awareness of the causes of home accidents and promote effective preventative measures to reduce such accidents; • to promote and facilitate effective training, skills and knowledge in home accident prevention across all relevant organisations, groups and individuals. These objectives will be met through integrated and effective approaches including: • education and information programmes to promote home safety, and promote a change in public behaviour towards home accident prevention; and • the use of evidence based practice, models of good practice, and by evaluating home accident prevention initiatives. OUTCOMES If successful, implementation of this strategy will lead to a reduction in the number of home accidents and contribute to the outcome “reduction in preventable deaths and diseases and improvement in wellbeing” set out in the Northern Ireland Priorities and Budget 2004-2006.

TNFα in synaptic function: switching gears.

Pathological brain states are known to induce massive production of proinflammatory cytokines, including tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα). At much lower levels, these cytokines are also present in the healthy brain, where it is increasingly being recognized that they exert regulatory influences. Recent studies suggest that TNFα plays important roles in controlling synaptic transmission and plasticity. Here, we discuss the evidence in support of synaptic regulation by TNFα and the underlying cellular mechanisms, including control of AMPA receptor trafficking and glutamate release from astrocytes. These findings suggest that increases in TNFα levels (caused by nervous system infection, injury, or disease) transform the physiological actions of the cytokine into deleterious ones. This functional switch may contribute to cognitive alterations in several brain pathologies.

Replacement therapy for iron deficiency improves exercise capacity and quality of life in patients with cyanotic congenital heart disease and/or the Eisenmenger syndrome

La teràpia suplementària de ferro millora la capacitat d’exercici i la qualitat de vida en malalts amb una cardiopatia congènita cianòtica i/ o síndrome d’Eisenmenger El dèficit de ferro és una troballa comú en la cardiopatia congènita cianòtica, i pot ser la causa d’una reducció en la capacitat d’exercici. Actualment, està indicada la reposició dels dipòsits de ferro en aquest grup de malalts, éssent les evidències científiques escasses. En el present treball investiguem la seguretat i eficàcia del tractament amb ferro en malalts amb una cardiopatia congènita cianòtica. Per tal motiu, vint-i-cinc malalts amb una cardiopatia congenita cianòtica i dèficit de ferro van ser inclosos de forma prospectiva entre Agost del 2008 i Gener del 2009. El tractament utilitzat fou fumarat ferròs oral, fins a una dosi màxima de 200 mg tres vegades al dia. En l’anàlisi basal i als tres mesos de seguiment es va utilitzar el test de qualitat de vida “CAMPHOR”, el test de la marxa dels 6 minuts i la prova d’esforç amb consum d’oxigen. L’edat mitja fou 39.9+/-10.9 anys, 80% dones. Catorze malalts tenien la síndrome d’Eisenmenger, sis una malaltia cianòtica complexa i cinc circulació de Fontan. Cap d’ells va haver d'interrompre el tractament degut a efectes adversos. Després de tres mesos de tractament, l’hemoglobina (19.0+/-2.9g/dL a 20.4+/-2.7g/dL, p&0.001), ferritina (13.3+/-4.7mug/L a 54.1+/-24.2mug/L, p&0.001) i saturació de transferrina (17.8+/-9.6% a 34.8+/-23.4%, p&0.001) van augmentar significativament. També hi va haver una millora significativa en la puntuació del test de qualitat de vida (20.7+/-10.9 a 16.2+/-10.4, p=0.001) i el test de la marxa (371.7+/-84.7m a 402.8.0+/-74.9m, p=0.001). No es van evidenciar canvis significatius en els valors de consum d’oxigen (40.7+/-9.2% a 43.8+/-12.4%, p=0.15). En definitiva, la teràpia suplementària amb ferro en els malats amb una cardiopatia congènita cianòtica i dèficit de ferro és segura i millora la qualitat de vida i la capacitat funcional. En aquest grup de malalts, per tant, és aconsellable identificar el dèficit de ferro i restaurar-ne els seus dipòsits.

Three essays in international finance

Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.

A guide to working in partnership: employability provision for drug users.

The aim of this guide is to identify the key principles of partnership working and to provide case study examples of how partnership works in practice in employability provision for drug users. Developing and sustaining new and valuable relationships with the world beyond drugs is a key factor in sustainable recovery for drug users. This includes the worlds of employment, training and education. Research suggests that employment can aid the process of recovery. A qualitative study of drug users in Scotland highlighted the importance of employment and other activities to fill the ‘void’ left by drug useThis resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

A brief cognitive behavioural intervention for regular amphetamine users. A treatment guide.

A brief intervention using motivational and cognitive behavioural approaches to help change drug use. Also offer alternative brief interventions for clients not suited to the current approach. This manual is divided into five sections: Section 1. Context Key points from the National Drug Strategy Monograph No 51. Models of Intervention and Care for Psychostimulant Users are included to present the evidence supporting this type of intervention for regular amphetamine users.  A flow-chart to place the intervention in a treatment context. Section 2. Brief background to the study and summary of results of evaluation A brief description of how the study was developed, undertaken and evaluated. A brief description of the evaluation outcome data (detailed results will be published separately). Section 3. The intervention The CBT intervention is presented in a clear and easy to use format for practitioners. Section 4. Suggested alternative brief interventions for those not suitable for the current intervention This section provides an overview of recommendations for alternative interventions for psychostimulant users who are unsuitable for the CBT intervention (e.g. those who are not considering change, experimental users etc). Section 5. Other available resources This section lists a range of other resources that are currently available for practitioners working with psychostimulant users. This treatment guide has not been designed to stand alone. Rather, practitioners are encouraged to: 1. Acquaint themselves with the current research and clinical literature. The recently completed monograph Models of Intervention and Care for Psychostimulant Users is an excellent resource for current evidence supporting practice in this area. 2. Undertake training in CBT and motivational enhancement techniques if unfamiliar with these approaches. 3. Obtain ongoing clinical supervision.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

UOCasion: trabajo fin de carrera J2EE

L'objectiu del TFC és el desenvolupament d'una aplicació informàtica sota la plataforma J2EE, implementant el patró model-vista-controlador. Per posar-ho en pràctica, es desenvoluparà una aplicació web que gestioni una companyia dedicada a la compra i venda de cotxes de segona mà. Es desenvoluparà tant la part empresarial relacionada amb la interacció amb els clients com la part administrativa, que permeti a la companyia gestionar la seva xarxa de concessionari i el personal que tenen contractat.

Exposure models in Switzerland: an overview of the present situation

A survey was undertaken among Swiss occupational health and safety specialists in 2004 to identify uses, difficulties, and possible developments of exposure models. Occupational hygienists (121), occupational physicians (169), and safety specialists (95) were surveyed with an in depth questionnaire. Results obtained indicate that models are not used very much in practice in Switzerland and are reserved to research groups focusing on specific topics. However, various determinants of exposure are often considered important by professionals (emission rate, work activity), and in some cases recorded and used (room parameters, operator activity). These parameters cannot be directly included in present models. Nevertheless, more than half of the occupational hygienists think that it is important to develop quantitative exposure models. Looking at research institutions, there is, however, a big interest in the use of models to solve problems which are difficult to address with direct measurements; i. e. retrospective exposure assessment for specific clinical cases and prospective evaluation for new situations or estimation of the effect of selected parameters. In a recent study about cases of acutepulmonary toxicity following water proofing spray exposure, exposure models have been used to reconstruct exposure of a group of patients. Finally, in the context of exposure prediction, it is also important to report about a measurement database existing in Switzerland since 1991. [Authors]

Uncertainty about the true source. A note on the likelihood ratio at the activity level.

This paper focuses on likelihood ratio based evaluations of fibre evidence in cases in which there is uncertainty about whether or not the reference item available for analysis - that is, an item typically taken from the suspect or seized at his home - is the item actually worn at the time of the offence. A likelihood ratio approach is proposed that, for situations in which certain categorical assumptions can be made about additionally introduced parameters, converges to formula described in existing literature. The properties of the proposed likelihood ratio approach are analysed through sensitivity analyses and discussed with respect to possible argumentative implications that arise in practice.

The Forum on Patronage and Pluralism in the Primary Sector - Report of the Forum's Advisory Group

The fact that 96 percent of primary schools in Ireland are under denominational patronage is unique among developed countries. The reasons for this are deeply rooted in history and in the belief system of the population. With the establishment of the National (Primary) School system in 1831 the State provided financial support to local patrons for primary school provision, on the condition that patrons observed the regulations of the newly established Commissioners of National Education. While the State favoured applications from patrons of mixed denominations, what evolved, in practice, was that the great majority of schools came under the patronage of individual clergymen of different denominations.

Validación de la versión española del cuestionario sobre la práctica basada en la evidencia en enfermería

Background: The lack of adequate instruments prevents the possibility of assessing the competence of health care staff in evidence-based decision making and further, the identification of areas for improvement with tailored strategies. The aim of this study is to report about the validation process in the Spanish context of the Evidence-Based Practice Questionnaire (EBPQ) from Upton y Upton. Methods: A multicentre, cross-sectional, descriptive psychometric validation study was carried out. For cultural adaptation, a bidirectional translation was developed, accordingly to usual standards. The measuring model from the questionnaire was undergone to contrast, reproducing the original structure by Exploratory Factorial Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factorial Analysis (CFA), including the reliability of factors. Results: Both EFA (57.545% of total variance explained) and CFA (chi2=2359,9555; gl=252; p<0.0001; RMSEA=0,1844; SRMR=0,1081), detected problems with items 7, 16, 22, 23 and 24, regarding to the original trifactorial version of EBPQ. After deleting some questions, a reduced version containing 19 items obtained an adequate factorial structure (62.29% of total variance explained), but the CFA did not fit well. Nevertheless, it was significantly better than the original version (chi2=673.1261; gl=149; p<0.0001; RMSEA=0.1196; SRMR=0.0648). Conclusions: The trifactorial model obtained good empiric evidence and could be used in our context, but the results invite to advance with further refinements into the factor “attitude”, testing it in more contexts and with more diverse professional profiles.

Consensus statement of the European guidelines on clinical management of HIV-1 tropism testing

Introduction: Testing for HIV tropism is recommended before prescribing a chemokine receptor blocker. To date, in most European countries HIV tropism is determined using a phenotypic test. Recently, new data have emerged supporting the use of a genotypic HIV V3-loop sequence analysis as the basis for tropism determination. The European guidelines group on clinical management of HIV-1 tropism testing was established to make recommendations to clinicians and virologists. Methods: We searched online databases for articles from Jan 2006 until March 2010 with the terms: tropism or CCR5-antagonist or CCR5 antagonist or maraviroc or vicriviroc. Additional articles and/or conference abstracts were identified by hand searching. This strategy identified 712 potential articles and 1240 abstracts. All were reviewed and finally 57 papers and 42 abstracts were included and used by the panel to reach a consensus statement. Results: The panel recommends HIV-tropism testing for the following indications: i) drug-naïve patients in whom toxicity or limited therapeutic options are foreseen; ii) patients experiencing therapy failure whenever a treatment change is considered. Both the phenotypic Enhanced Trofile assay (ESTA) and genotypic population sequencing of the V3-loop are recommended for use in clinical practice. Although the panel does not recommend one methodology over another it is anticipated that genotypic testing will be used more frequently because of its greater accessibility, lower cost and shorter turnaround time. The panel also provides guidance on technical aspects and interpretation issues. If using genotypic methods, triplicate PCR amplification and sequencing testing is advised using the G2P interpretation tool (clonal model) with an FPR of 10%. If the viral load is below the level of reliable amplification, proviral DNA can be used, and the panel recommends performing triplicate testing and use of an FPR of 10%. If genotypic DNA testing is not performed in triplicate the FPR should be increased to 20%. Conclusions: The European guidelines on clinical management of HIV-1 tropism testing provide an overview of current literature, evidence-based recommendations for the clinical use of tropism testing and expert guidance on unresolved issues and current developments. Current data support both the use of genotypic population sequencing and ESTA for co-receptor tropism determination. For practical reasons genotypic population sequencing is the preferred method in Europe.

Role of wireless capsule endoscopy in inflammatory bowel

Capsule endoscopy (CE) offers state-of-the-art imaging of the small bowel. In Crohn's disease its clinical role is still uncertain. This report analyses the usefulness of CE in patients with suspected Cronh's disease, in patients with established Crohn's disease (when assessing severity, occult gastrointestinal bleeding and/or as a guide to therapy), in patients with inflammatory bowel disease unclassified (IBDU), and in individuals with ulcerative colitis. The first item in this group is the most important although there is no strong evidence to establish the position of CE in the diagnostic workup. In patients with established Crohn's disease, recently developed activity scores are promising tools for an accurate assessment of severity. As a guide to therapy, CE should be focused on patients with unexplained symptoms when other investigations are inconclusive. In postoperative Crohn's Disease, international consensus recommended considering CE only if ileocolonoscopy is contraindicated or unsuccessful. In the case of IBDU, studies have shown a significant proportion of patients reclassified with Crohn's disease. In this setting, CE could have a role determining small bowel involvement. The role of CE in ulcerative colitis is limited. Some authors advocate CE before colectomy for refractory cases in order to exclude Crohn's disease. In summary, CE offers a new horizon in inflammatory bowel disease, and a better knowledge of mucosal abnormalities that could offer a paradigm shift: changing from symptom-based disease activity estimation to direct mucosal healing monitoring. Nevertheless, randomized controlled studies are still needed to provide stronger evidence in this setting.