840 resultados para hybrid prediction method


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The development of methods to economically synthesize single wire structured multiferroic systems with room temperature spin−charge coupling is expected to be important for building next-generation multifunctional devices with ultralow power consumption. We demonstrate the fabrication of a single nanowire multiferroic system, a new geometry, exhibiting room temperature magnetodielectric coupling. A coaxial nanotube/nanowire heterostructure of barium titanate (BaTiO3, BTO) and cobalt (Co) has been synthesized using a template-assisted method. Room temperature ferromagnetism and ferroelectricity were exhibited by this coaxial system, indicating the coexistence of more than one ferroic interaction in this composite system

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The focus of self-assembly as a strategy for the synthesis has been confined largely to molecules, because of the importance of manipulating the structure of matter at the molecular scale. We have investigated the influence of temperature and pH, in addition to the concentration of the capping agent used for the formation of the nano-bio conjugates. For example, the formation of the narrower size distribution of the nanoparticles was observed with the increase in the concentration of the protein, which supports the fact that γ-globulin acts both as a controller of nucleation as well as stabiliser. As analyzed through various photophysical, biophysical and microscopic techniques such as TEM, AFM, C-AFM, SEM, DLS, OPM, CD and FTIR, we observed that the initial photoactivation of γ-globulin at pH 12 for 3 h resulted in small protein fibres of ca. Further irradiation for 24 h, led to the formation of selfassembled long fibres of the protein of ca. 5-6 nm and observation of surface plasmon resonance band at around 520 nm with the concomitant quenching of luminescence intensity at 680 nm. The observation of light triggered self-assembly of the protein and its effect on controlling the fate of the anchored nanoparticles can be compared with the naturally occurring process such as photomorphogenesis.Furthermore,our approach offers a way to understand the role played by the self-assembly of the protein in ordering and knock out of the metal nanoparticles and also in the design of nano-biohybrid materials for medicinal and optoelectronic applications. Investigation of the potential applications of NIR absorbing and water soluble squaraine dyes 1-3 for protein labeling and anti-amyloid agents forms the subject matter of the third chapter of the thesis. The study of their interactions with various proteins revealed that 1-3 showed unique interactions towards serum albumins as well as lysozyme. 69%, 71% and 49% in the absorption spectra as well as significant quenching in the fluorescence intensity of the dyes 1-3, respectively. Half-reciprocal analysis of the absorption data and isothermal titration calorimetric (ITC) analysis of the titration experiments gave a 1:1 stoichiometry for the complexes formed between the lysozyme and squaraine dyes with association constants (Kass) in the range 104-105 M-1. We have determined the changes in the free energy (ΔG) for the complex formation and the values are found to be -30.78, -32.31 and -28.58 kJmol-1, respectively for the dyes 1, 2 and 3. Furthermore, we have observed a strong induced CD (ICD) signal corresponding to the squaraine chromophore in the case of the halogenated squaraine dyes 2 and 3 at 636 and 637 nm confirming the complex formation in these cases. To understand the nature of interaction of the squaraine dyes 1-3 with lysozyme, we have investigated the interaction of dyes 1-3 with different amino acids. These results indicated that the dyes 1-3 showed significant interactions with cysteine and glutamic acid which are present in the side chains of lysozyme. In addition the temperature dependent studies have revealed that the interaction of the dye and the lysozyme are irreversible. Furthermore, we have investigated the interactions of these NIR dyes 1-3 with β- amyloid fibres derived from lysozyme to evaluate their potential as inhibitors of this biologically important protein aggregation. These β-amyloid fibrils were insoluble protein aggregates that have been associated with a range of neurodegenerative diseases, including Huntington, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and Creutzfeldt-Jakob diseases. We have synthesized amyloid fibres from lysozyme through its incubation in acidic solution below pH 4 and by allowing to form amyloid fibres at elevated temperature. To quantify the binding affinities of the squaraine dyes 1-3 with β-amyloids, we have carried out the isothermal titration calorimetric (ITC) measurements. The association constants were determined and are found to be 1.2 × 105, 3.6× 105 and 3.2 × 105 M-1 for the dyes, 1-3, respectively. To gain more insights into the amyloid inhibiting nature of the squaraine dyes under investigations, we have carried out thioflavin assay, CD, isothermal titration calorimetry and microscopic analysis. The addition of the dyes 1-3 (5μM) led to the complete quenching in the apparent thioflavin fluorescence, thereby indicating the destabilization of β-amyloid fibres in the presence of the squaraine dyes. Further, the inhibition of the amyloid fibres by the squaraine dyes 1-3, has been evidenced though the DLS, TEM AFM and SAED, wherein we observed the complete destabilization of the amyloid fibre and transformation of the fibre into spherical particles of ca. These results demonstrate the fact that the squaraine dyes 1-3 can act as protein labeling agents as well as the inhibitors of the protein amyloidogenesis. The last chapter of the thesis describes the synthesis and investigation of selfassembly as well as bio-imaging aspects of a few novel tetraphenylethene conjugates 4-6.Expectedly, these conjugates showed significant solvatochromism and exhibited a hypsochromic shift (negative solvatochromism) as the solvent polarity increased, and these observations were justified though theoretical studies employing the B3LYP/6-31g method. We have investigated the self-assembly properties of these D-A conjugates though variation in the percentage of water in acetonitrile solution due to the formation of nanoaggregates. Further the contour map of the observed fluorescence intensity as a function of the fluorescence excitation and emission wavelength confirmed the formation of J-type aggregates in these cases. To have a better understanding of the type of self-assemblies formed from the TPE conjugates 4-6, we have carried out the morphological analysis through various microscopic techniques such as DLS, SEM and TEM. 70%, we observed rod shape architectures having ~ 780 nm in diameter and ~ 12 μM in length as evidenced through TEM and SEM analysis. We have made similar observations with the dodecyl conjugate 5 at ca. 70% and 50% water/acetonitrile mixtures, the aggregates formed from 4 and 5 were found to be highly crystalline and such structures were transformed to amorphous nature as the water fraction was increased to 99%. To evaluate the potential of the conjugate as bio-imaging agents, we have carried out their in vitro cytotoxicity and cellular uptake studies though MTT assay, flow cytometric and confocal laser scanning microscopic techniques. Thus nanoparticle of these conjugates which exhibited efficient emission, large stoke shift, good stability, biocompatibility and excellent cellular imaging properties can have potential applications for tracking cells as well as in cell-based therapies. In summary we have synthesized novel functional organic chromophores and have studied systematic investigation of self-assembly of these synthetic and biological building blocks under a variety of conditions. The investigation of interaction of water soluble NIR squaraine dyes with lysozyme indicates that these dyes can act as the protein labeling agents and the efficiency of inhibition of β-amyloid indicate, thereby their potential as anti-amyloid agents.

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A stand-alone power system is an autonomous system that supplies electricity to the user load without being connected to the electric grid. This kind of decentralized system is frequently located in remote and inaccessible areas. It is essential for about one third of the world population which are living in developed or isolated regions and have no access to an electricity utility grid. The most people live in remote and rural areas, with low population density, lacking even the basic infrastructure. The utility grid extension to these locations is not a cost effective option and sometimes technically not feasible. The purpose of this thesis is the modelling and simulation of a stand-alone hybrid power system, referred to as “hydrogen Photovoltaic-Fuel Cell (PVFC) hybrid system”. It couples a photovoltaic generator (PV), an alkaline water electrolyser, a storage gas tank, a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC), and power conditioning units (PCU) to give different system topologies. The system is intended to be an environmentally friendly solution since it tries maximising the use of a renewable energy source. Electricity is produced by a PV generator to meet the requirements of a user load. Whenever there is enough solar radiation, the user load can be powered totally by the PV electricity. During periods of low solar radiation, auxiliary electricity is required. An alkaline high pressure water electrolyser is powered by the excess energy from the PV generator to produce hydrogen and oxygen at a pressure of maximum 30bar. Gases are stored without compression for short- (hourly or daily) and long- (seasonal) term. A proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell is used to keep the system’s reliability at the same level as for the conventional system while decreasing the environmental impact of the whole system. The PEM fuel cell consumes gases which are produced by an electrolyser to meet the user load demand when the PV generator energy is deficient, so that it works as an auxiliary generator. Power conditioning units are appropriate for the conversion and dispatch the energy between the components of the system. No batteries are used in this system since they represent the weakest when used in PV systems due to their need for sophisticated control and their short lifetime. The model library, ISET Alternative Power Library (ISET-APL), is designed by the Institute of Solar Energy supply Technology (ISET) and used for the simulation of the hybrid system. The physical, analytical and/or empirical equations of each component are programmed and implemented separately in this library for the simulation software program Simplorer by C++ language. The model parameters are derived from manufacturer’s performance data sheets or measurements obtained from literature. The identification and validation of the major hydrogen PVFC hybrid system component models are evaluated according to the measured data of the components, from the manufacturer’s data sheet or from actual system operation. Then, the overall system is simulated, at intervals of one hour each, by using solar radiation as the primary energy input and hydrogen as energy storage for one year operation. A comparison between different topologies, such as DC or AC coupled systems, is carried out on the basis of energy point of view at two locations with different geographical latitudes, in Kassel/Germany (Europe) and in Cairo/Egypt (North Africa). The main conclusion in this work is that the simulation method of the system study under different conditions could successfully be used to give good visualization and comparison between those topologies for the overall performance of the system. The operational performance of the system is not only depending on component efficiency but also on system design and consumption behaviour. The worst case of this system is the low efficiency of the storage subsystem made of the electrolyser, the gas storage tank, and the fuel cell as it is around 25-34% at Cairo and 29-37% at Kassel. Therefore, the research for this system should be concentrated in the subsystem components development especially the fuel cell.

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Lasers play an important role for medical, sensoric and data storage devices. This thesis is focused on design, technology development, fabrication and characterization of hybrid ultraviolet Vertical-Cavity Surface-Emitting Lasers (UV VCSEL) with organic laser-active material and inorganic distributed Bragg reflectors (DBR). Multilayer structures with different layer thicknesses, refractive indices and absorption coefficients of the inorganic materials were studied using theoretical model calculations. During the simulations the structure parameters such as materials and thicknesses have been varied. This procedure was repeated several times during the design optimization process including also the feedback from technology and characterization. Two types of VCSEL devices were investigated. The first is an index coupled structure consisting of bottom and top DBR dielectric mirrors. In the space in between them is the cavity, which includes active region and defines the spectral gain profile. In this configuration the maximum electrical field is concentrated in the cavity and can destroy the chemical structure of the active material. The second type of laser is a so called complex coupled VCSEL. In this structure the active material is placed not only in the cavity but also in parts of the DBR structure. The simulations show that such a distribution of the active material reduces the required pumping power for reaching lasing threshold. High efficiency is achieved by substituting the dielectric material with high refractive index for the periods closer to the cavity. The inorganic materials for the DBR mirrors have been deposited by Plasma- Enhanced Chemical Vapor Deposition (PECVD) and Dual Ion Beam Sputtering (DIBS) machines. Extended optimizations of the technological processes have been performed. All the processes are carried out in a clean room Class 1 and Class 10000. The optical properties and the thicknesses of the layers are measured in-situ by spectroscopic ellipsometry and spectroscopic reflectometry. The surface roughness is analyzed by atomic force microscopy (AFM) and images of the devices are taken with scanning electron microscope (SEM). The silicon dioxide (SiO2) and silicon nitride (Si3N4) layers deposited by the PECVD machine show defects of the material structure and have higher absorption in the ultra violet range compared to ion beam deposition (IBD). This results in low reflectivity of the DBR mirrors and also reduces the optical properties of the VCSEL devices. However PECVD has the advantage that the stress in the layers can be tuned and compensated, in contrast to IBD at the moment. A sputtering machine Ionsys 1000 produced by Roth&Rau company, is used for the deposition of silicon dioxide (SiO2), silicon nitride (Si3N4), aluminum oxide (Al2O3) and zirconium dioxide (ZrO2). The chamber is equipped with main (sputter) and assisted ion sources. The dielectric materials were optimized by introducing additional oxygen and nitrogen into the chamber. DBR mirrors with different material combinations were deposited. The measured optical properties of the fabricated multilayer structures show an excellent agreement with the results of theoretical model calculations. The layers deposited by puttering show high compressive stress. As an active region a novel organic material with spiro-linked molecules is used. Two different materials have been evaporated by utilizing a dye evaporation machine in the clean room of the department Makromolekulare Chemie und Molekulare Materialien (mmCmm). The Spiro-Octopus-1 organic material has a maximum emission at the wavelength λemission = 395 nm and the Spiro-Pphenal has a maximum emission at the wavelength λemission = 418 nm. Both of them have high refractive index and can be combined with low refractive index materials like silicon dioxide (SiO2). The sputtering method shows excellent optical quality of the deposited materials and high reflection of the multilayer structures. The bottom DBR mirrors for all VCSEL devices were deposited by the DIBS machine, whereas the top DBR mirror deposited either by PECVD or by combination of PECVD and DIBS. The fabricated VCSEL structures were optically pumped by nitrogen laser at wavelength λpumping = 337 nm. The emission was measured by spectrometer. A radiation of the VCSEL structure at wavelength 392 nm and 420 nm is observed.

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In this thesis, optical gain measurement setup based on variable stripe length method is designed, implemented and improved. The setup is characterized using inorganic and organic samples. The optical gain of spiro-quaterphenyl is calculated and compared with measurements from the setup. Films with various thicknesses of spiro-quaterphenyl, methoxy-spiro-quaterphenyl and phenoxy-spiro-quaterphenyl are deposited by a vacuum vapor deposition technique forming asymmetric slab waveguides. The optical properties, laser emission threshold, optical gain and loss coefficient for these films are measured. Additionally, the photodegradation during pumping process is investigated.

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The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

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Optimal control theory is a powerful tool for solving control problems in quantum mechanics, ranging from the control of chemical reactions to the implementation of gates in a quantum computer. Gradient-based optimization methods are able to find high fidelity controls, but require considerable numerical effort and often yield highly complex solutions. We propose here to employ a two-stage optimization scheme to significantly speed up convergence and achieve simpler controls. The control is initially parametrized using only a few free parameters, such that optimization in this pruned search space can be performed with a simplex method. The result, considered now simply as an arbitrary function on a time grid, is the starting point for further optimization with a gradient-based method that can quickly converge to high fidelities. We illustrate the success of this hybrid technique by optimizing a geometric phase gate for two superconducting transmon qubits coupled with a shared transmission line resonator, showing that a combination of Nelder-Mead simplex and Krotov’s method yields considerably better results than either one of the two methods alone.

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Piecewise linear models systems arise as mathematical models of systems in many practical applications, often from linearization for nonlinear systems. There are two main approaches of dealing with these systems according to their continuous or discrete-time aspects. We propose an approach which is based on the state transformation, more particularly the partition of the phase portrait in different regions where each subregion is modeled as a two-dimensional linear time invariant system. Then the Takagi-Sugeno model, which is a combination of local model is calculated. The simulation results show that the Alpha partition is well-suited for dealing with such a system

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Non-specific Occupational Low Back Pain (NOLBP) is a health condition that generates a high absenteeism and disability. Due to multifactorial causes is difficult to determine accurate diagnosis and prognosis. The clinical prediction of NOLBP is identified as a series of models that integrate a multivariate analysis to determine early diagnosis, course, and occupational impact of this health condition. Objective: to identify predictor factors of NOLBP, and the type of material referred to in the scientific evidence and establish the scopes of the prediction. Materials and method: the title search was conducted in the databases PubMed, Science Direct, and Ebsco Springer, between1985 and 2012. The selected articles were classified through a bibliometric analysis allowing to define the most relevant ones. Results: 101 titles met the established criteria, but only 43 metthe purpose of the review. As for NOLBP prediction, the studies varied in relation to the factors for example: diagnosis, transition of lumbar pain from acute to chronic, absenteeism from work, disability and return to work. Conclusion: clinical prediction is considered as a strategic to determine course and prognostic of NOLBP, and to determine the characteristics that increase the risk of chronicity in workers with this health condition. Likewise, clinical prediction rules are tools that aim to facilitate decision making about the evaluation, diagnosis, prognosis and intervention for low back pain, which should incorporate risk factors of physical, psychological and social.

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In this thesis I propose a novel method to estimate the dose and injection-to-meal time for low-risk intensive insulin therapy. This dosage-aid system uses an optimization algorithm to determine the insulin dose and injection-to-meal time that minimizes the risk of postprandial hyper- and hypoglycaemia in type 1 diabetic patients. To this end, the algorithm applies a methodology that quantifies the risk of experiencing different grades of hypo- or hyperglycaemia in the postprandial state induced by insulin therapy according to an individual patient’s parameters. This methodology is based on modal interval analysis (MIA). Applying MIA, the postprandial glucose level is predicted with consideration of intra-patient variability and other sources of uncertainty. A worst-case approach is then used to calculate the risk index. In this way, a safer prediction of possible hyper- and hypoglycaemic episodes induced by the insulin therapy tested can be calculated in terms of these uncertainties.

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The aim of this thesis is to narrow the gap between two different control techniques: the continuous control and the discrete event control techniques DES. This gap can be reduced by the study of Hybrid systems, and by interpreting as Hybrid systems the majority of large-scale systems. In particular, when looking deeply into a process, it is often possible to identify interaction between discrete and continuous signals. Hybrid systems are systems that have both continuous, and discrete signals. Continuous signals are generally supposed continuous and differentiable in time, since discrete signals are neither continuous nor differentiable in time due to their abrupt changes in time. Continuous signals often represent the measure of natural physical magnitudes such as temperature, pressure etc. The discrete signals are normally artificial signals, operated by human artefacts as current, voltage, light etc. Typical processes modelled as Hybrid systems are production systems, chemical process, or continuos production when time and continuous measures interacts with the transport, and stock inventory system. Complex systems as manufacturing lines are hybrid in a global sense. They can be decomposed into several subsystems, and their links. Another motivation for the study of Hybrid systems is the tools developed by other research domains. These tools benefit from the use of temporal logic for the analysis of several properties of Hybrid systems model, and use it to design systems and controllers, which satisfies physical or imposed restrictions. This thesis is focused in particular types of systems with discrete and continuous signals in interaction. That can be modelled hard non-linealities, such as hysteresis, jumps in the state, limit cycles, etc. and their possible non-deterministic future behaviour expressed by an interpretable model description. The Hybrid systems treated in this work are systems with several discrete states, always less than thirty states (it can arrive to NP hard problem), and continuous dynamics evolving with expression: with Ki ¡ Rn constant vectors or matrices for X components vector. In several states the continuous evolution can be several of them Ki = 0. In this formulation, the mathematics can express Time invariant linear system. By the use of this expression for a local part, the combination of several local linear models is possible to represent non-linear systems. And with the interaction with discrete events of the system the model can compose non-linear Hybrid systems. Especially multistage processes with high continuous dynamics are well represented by the proposed methodology. Sate vectors with more than two components, as third order models or higher is well approximated by the proposed approximation. Flexible belt transmission, chemical reactions with initial start-up and mobile robots with important friction are several physical systems, which profits from the benefits of proposed methodology (accuracy). The motivation of this thesis is to obtain a solution that can control and drive the Hybrid systems from the origin or starting point to the goal. How to obtain this solution, and which is the best solution in terms of one cost function subject to the physical restrictions and control actions is analysed. Hybrid systems that have several possible states, different ways to drive the system to the goal and different continuous control signals are problems that motivate this research. The requirements of the system on which we work is: a model that can represent the behaviour of the non-linear systems, and that possibilities the prediction of possible future behaviour for the model, in order to apply an supervisor which decides the optimal and secure action to drive the system toward the goal. Specific problems can be determined by the use of this kind of hybrid models are: - The unity of order. - Control the system along a reachable path. - Control the system in a safe path. - Optimise the cost function. - Modularity of control The proposed model solves the specified problems in the switching models problem, the initial condition calculus and the unity of the order models. Continuous and discrete phenomena are represented in Linear hybrid models, defined with defined eighth-tuple parameters to model different types of hybrid phenomena. Applying a transformation over the state vector : for LTI system we obtain from a two-dimensional SS a single parameter, alpha, which still maintains the dynamical information. Combining this parameter with the system output, a complete description of the system is obtained in a form of a graph in polar representation. Using Tagaki-Sugeno type III is a fuzzy model which include linear time invariant LTI models for each local model, the fuzzyfication of different LTI local model gives as a result a non-linear time invariant model. In our case the output and the alpha measure govern the membership function. Hybrid systems control is a huge task, the processes need to be guided from the Starting point to the desired End point, passing a through of different specific states and points in the trajectory. The system can be structured in different levels of abstraction and the control in three layers for the Hybrid systems from planning the process to produce the actions, these are the planning, the process and control layer. In this case the algorithms will be applied to robotics ¡V a domain where improvements are well accepted ¡V it is expected to find a simple repetitive processes for which the extra effort in complexity can be compensated by some cost reductions. It may be also interesting to implement some control optimisation to processes such as fuel injection, DC-DC converters etc. In order to apply the RW theory of discrete event systems on a Hybrid system, we must abstract the continuous signals and to project the events generated for these signals, to obtain new sets of observable and controllable events. Ramadge & Wonham¡¦s theory along with the TCT software give a Controllable Sublanguage of the legal language generated for a Discrete Event System (DES). Continuous abstraction transforms predicates over continuous variables into controllable or uncontrollable events, and modifies the set of uncontrollable, controllable observable and unobservable events. Continuous signals produce into the system virtual events, when this crosses the bound limits. If this event is deterministic, they can be projected. It is necessary to determine the controllability of this event, in order to assign this to the corresponding set, , controllable, uncontrollable, observable and unobservable set of events. Find optimal trajectories in order to minimise some cost function is the goal of the modelling procedure. Mathematical model for the system allows the user to apply mathematical techniques over this expression. These possibilities are, to minimise a specific cost function, to obtain optimal controllers and to approximate a specific trajectory. The combination of the Dynamic Programming with Bellman Principle of optimality, give us the procedure to solve the minimum time trajectory for Hybrid systems. The problem is greater when there exists interaction between adjacent states. In Hybrid systems the problem is to determine the partial set points to be applied at the local models. Optimal controller can be implemented in each local model in order to assure the minimisation of the local costs. The solution of this problem needs to give us the trajectory to follow the system. Trajectory marked by a set of set points to force the system to passing over them. Several ways are possible to drive the system from the Starting point Xi to the End point Xf. Different ways are interesting in: dynamic sense, minimum states, approximation at set points, etc. These ways need to be safe and viable and RchW. And only one of them must to be applied, normally the best, which minimises the proposed cost function. A Reachable Way, this means the controllable way and safe, will be evaluated in order to obtain which one minimises the cost function. Contribution of this work is a complete framework to work with the majority Hybrid systems, the procedures to model, control and supervise are defined and explained and its use is demonstrated. Also explained is the procedure to model the systems to be analysed for automatic verification. Great improvements were obtained by using this methodology in comparison to using other piecewise linear approximations. It is demonstrated in particular cases this methodology can provide best approximation. The most important contribution of this work, is the Alpha approximation for non-linear systems with high dynamics While this kind of process is not typical, but in this case the Alpha approximation is the best linear approximation to use, and give a compact representation.

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The fact that the hybrid building is an extremely condensed urban block which increases the city’s density and contributes to the public realm of the city – horizontally as well vertically - forms one of the key interests of this documentation, research and master studio work. The “ground scraper” is not only public because of the character of its plinth facing surrounding streets, but also in regard to its interior space that is partly accessible to public. As such the European hybrid building potentially extends the city’s public domain horizontally and vertically into the building’s interior and links the public domain inside and outside. Notwithstanding, the hybrid building due to its specific and unconventional character represents a truly urban architecture that was unfortunately often rejected in the name of ‘purity’ of form and function during the twentieth century. Or with other words, its rejection demonstrates the domination of the building’s plan opposed to the section. Today, new frameworks for the city, like the “compact city,” ask for innovative interpretations and designs of building types, worthy to be investigated and proposed. The architectural type of the hybrid building, (re)defines and expresses the relation between architecture and the city in a specific manner. To begin with, the city of Rotterdam forms the first test-case of the Hybrid’s project to document and discuss statements, such as “the hybrid building has a long- standing tradition within this ‘modern city”, “it is a machine for urbanity,” “it enlarges the city,” “it innovates because of its ambitiousness but also because of necessity,” “it combines to activate,” “it asks for extraordinary design intelligence and craftsmanship.” A special way of drawing is developed to document, analyse and compare historical and contemporary representatives of the species. The method includes panoply of scales ranging from the morphological arrangement on the scale of the city, the typologies of stacking diverse programs to the architectural features that establish the mutual relationship between the public space of the city and the interior of the building. Basically the features analysed within the series of drawings are also constitutional for (the success of) every future hybrid building.

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A new method for assessing forecast skill and predictability that involves the identification and tracking of extratropical cyclones has been developed and implemented to obtain detailed information about the prediction of cyclones that cannot be obtained from more conventional analysis methodologies. The cyclones were identified and tracked along the forecast trajectories, and statistics were generated to determine the rate at which the position and intensity of the forecasted storms diverge from the analyzed tracks as a function of forecast lead time. The results show a higher level of skill in predicting the position of extratropical cyclones than the intensity. They also show that there is potential to improve the skill in predicting the position by 1 - 1.5 days and the intensity by 2 - 3 days, via improvements to the forecast model. Further analysis shows that forecasted storms move at a slower speed than analyzed storms on average and that there is a larger error in the predicted amplitudes of intense storms than the weaker storms. The results also show that some storms can be predicted up to 3 days before they are identified as an 850-hPa vorticity center in the analyses. In general, the results show a higher level of skill in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH); however, the rapid growth of NH winter storms is not very well predicted. The impact that observations of different types have on the prediction of the extratropical cyclones has also been explored, using forecasts integrated from analyses that were constructed from reduced observing systems. A terrestrial, satellite, and surface-based system were investigated and the results showed that the predictive skill of the terrestrial system was superior to the satellite system in the NH. Further analysis showed that the satellite system was not very good at predicting the growth of the storms. In the SH the terrestrial system has significantly less skill than the satellite system, highlighting the dominance of satellite observations in this hemisphere. The surface system has very poor predictive skill in both hemispheres.

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A numerical algorithm for the biharmonic equation in domains with piecewise smooth boundaries is presented. It is intended for problems describing the Stokes flow in the situations where one has corners or cusps formed by parts of the domain boundary and, due to the nature of the boundary conditions on these parts of the boundary, these regions have a global effect on the shape of the whole domain and hence have to be resolved with sufficient accuracy. The algorithm combines the boundary integral equation method for the main part of the flow domain and the finite-element method which is used to resolve the corner/cusp regions. Two parts of the solution are matched along a numerical ‘internal interface’ or, as a variant, two interfaces, and they are determined simultaneously by inverting a combined matrix in the course of iterations. The algorithm is illustrated by considering the flow configuration of ‘curtain coating’, a flow where a sheet of liquid impinges onto a moving solid substrate, which is particularly sensitive to what happens in the corner region formed, physically, by the free surface and the solid boundary. The ‘moving contact line problem’ is addressed in the framework of an earlier developed interface formation model which treats the dynamic contact angle as part of the solution, as opposed to it being a prescribed function of the contact line speed, as in the so-called ‘slip models’. Keywords: Dynamic contact angle; finite elements; free surface flows; hybrid numerical technique; Stokes equations.

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A regional study of the prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) has been performed. An objective feature-tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast error statistics have then been produced for the position, intensity, and propagation speed of the storms. In previous work, data limitations meant it was only possible to present the diagnostics for the entire Northern Hemisphere (NH) or Southern Hemisphere. A larger data sample has allowed the diagnostics to be computed separately for smaller regions around the globe and has made it possible to explore the regional differences in the prediction of storms by the EPS. Results show that in the NH there is a larger ensemble mean error in the position of storms over the Atlantic Ocean. Further analysis revealed that this is mainly due to errors in the prediction of storm propagation speed rather than in direction. Forecast storms propagate too slowly in all regions, but the bias is about 2 times as large in the NH Atlantic region. The results show that storm intensity is generally overpredicted over the ocean and underpredicted over the land and that the absolute error in intensity is larger over the ocean than over the land. In the NH, large errors occur in the prediction of the intensity of storms that originate as tropical cyclones but then move into the extratropics. The ensemble is underdispersive for the intensity of cyclones (i.e., the spread is smaller than the mean error) in all regions. The spatial patterns of the ensemble mean error and ensemble spread are very different for the intensity of cyclones. Spatial distributions of the ensemble mean error suggest that large errors occur during the growth phase of storm development, but this is not indicated by the spatial distributions of the ensemble spread. In the NH there are further differences. First, the large errors in the prediction of the intensity of cyclones that originate in the tropics are not indicated by the spread. Second, the ensemble mean error is larger over the Pacific Ocean than over the Atlantic, whereas the opposite is true for the spread. The use of a storm-tracking approach, to both weather forecasters and developers of forecast systems, is also discussed.