Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change.

Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

Climate Change and Health: A platform for action

This paper provides an introduction to the links between climate change and health and aims to inform policy-makers, politicians and the public of the benefits for health from reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)* emissions from food production, transport, energy, and waste. It also highlights the importance of action by the health sector.It presents a platform for action which demonstrates that creating healthy sustainable places and communities can go hand in hand with reducing the negative impacts of climate change.

Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: the otter as a flagship species

Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species. Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HAD-CM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas. Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter's potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.

How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?

International conservation organisations have identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These global-scale prioritisations affect the distribution of funds for conservation interventions. As each organisation has a different focus, each prioritisation scheme is determined by different decision criteria and the resultant priority areas vary considerably. However, little is known about how the priority areas will respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examined the robustness of eight global-scale prioritisations to climate change under various climate predictions from seven global circulation models. We developed a novel metric of the climate stability for 803 ecoregions based on a recently introduced method to estimate the overlap of climate envelopes. The relationships between the decision criteria and the robustness of the global prioritisation schemes were statistically examined. We found that decision criteria related to level of endemism and landscape fragmentation were strongly correlated with areas predicted to be robust to a changing climate. Hence, policies that prioritise intact areas due to the likely cost efficiency, and assumptions related to the potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change, require further examination. Our findings will help determine where additional management is required to enable biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of climate change

Climate change, anthropogenic disturbance and the northward range expansion of Lactuca serriola (Asteraceae)

The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer-dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non-climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change.

Tree line shifts in the Swiss Alps: Climate change or land abandonment?

Questions: Did the forest area in the Swiss Alps increase between 1985 and 1997? Does the forest expansion near the tree line represent an invasion into abandoned grasslands (ingrowth) or a true upward shift of the local tree line? What land cover / land use classes did primarily regenerate to forest, and what forest structural types did primarily regenerate? And, what are possible drivers of forest regeneration in the tree line ecotone, climate and/or land use change? Location: Swiss Alps. Methods: Forest expansion was quantified using data from the repeated Swiss land use statistics GEOSTAT. A moving window algorithm was developed to distinguish between forest ingrowth and upward shift. To test a possible climate change influence, the resulting upward shifts were compared to a potential regional tree line. Results: A significant increase of forest cover was found between 1650 to and 2450 m. Above 1650 m, 10% of the new forest areas were identified as true upward shifts whereas 90% represented ingrowth, and we identified both land use and climate change as likely drivers. Most upward shift activities were found to occur within a band of 300 m below the potential regional tree line, indicating land use as the most likely driver. Only 4% of the upward shifts were identified to rise above the potential regional tree line, thus indicating climate change. Conclusions: Land abandonment was the most dominant driver for the establishment of new forest areas, even at the tree line ecotone. However, a small fraction of upwards shift can be attributed to the recent climate warming, a fraction that is likely to increase further if climate continues to warm, and with a longer time-span between warming and measurement of forest cover.

An alternative socio-ecological strategy? International Trade Unions' engagement with climate change

In the context of a global ecological crisis, it is an important move when trade unions turn to environmentalism. Yet, the form that this environmentalism takes is often overlooked. This is especially the case with international trade unions. Based on an empirical study of international trade unions' engagement with the climate change issue, this article argues that international trade unions follow three different (and partially conflicting) strategies. I label these strategies as 'deliberative', 'collaborative growth' and 'socialist', and I examine each in turn. I argue that such analysis is important if we want to identify the potential for transforming the social relations of production that are at the root of the current climate crisis, and for identifying an alternative socio-ecological strategy.

21st century climate change: where has all the geomorphology gone?

This Commentary draws together recently published work relating to the relationship between climate change and geomorphology to address the surprising observation that geomorphic work seems to have had little impact upon the work of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. However, recent papers show that methodological innovation has allowed geomorphological reconstruction over timescales highly relevant to late 20th century and 21st century climate change. In turn, these and other developments are allowing links to be made between climatic variability and geomorphology, to begin to predict geomorphic futures and also to appreciate the role that geomorphic processes play in the flux of carbon and the carbon cycle.

Movement, impacts and management of plant distributions in response to climate change: insights from invasions

A major challenge in this era of rapid climate change is to predict changes in species distributions and their impacts on ecosystems, and, if necessary, to recommend management strategies for maintenance of biodiversity or ecosystem services. Biological invasions, studied in most biomes of the world, can provide useful analogs for some of the ecological consequences of species distribution shifts in response to climate change. Invasions illustrate the adaptive and interactive responses that can occur when species are confronted with new environmental conditions. Invasion ecology complements climate change research and provides insights into the following questions: i) how will species distributions respond to climate change? ii) how will species movement affect recipient ecosystems? and iii) should we, and if so how can we, manage species and ecosystems in the face of climate change? Invasion ecology demonstrates that a trait-based approach can help to predict spread speeds and impacts on ecosystems, and has the potential to predict climate change impacts on species ranges and recipient ecosystems. However, there is a need to analyse traits in the context of life-history and demography, the stage in the colonisation process (e.g., spread, establishment or impact), the distribution of suitable habitats in the landscape, and the novel abiotic and biotic conditions under which those traits are expressed. As is the case with climate change, invasion ecology is embedded within complex societal goals. Both disciplines converge on similar questions of "when to intervene?" and "what to do?" which call for a better understanding of the ecological processes and social values associated with changing ecosystems.

Late Early Triassic climate change: Insights from carbonate carbon isotopes, sedimentary evolution and ammonoid paleobiogeography

The late Early Triassic sedimentary-facies evolution and carbonate carbon-isotope marine record (delta(13)C(carb)) of ammonoid-rich, outer platform settings show striking similarities between the South ChinaBlock (SCB) and the widely distant Northern Indian Margin (NIM). The studied sections are located within the Triassic Tethys Himalayan belt (Losar section, Himachal Pradesh, India) and the Nanpanjiang Basin in the South China Block (Jinya section, Guangxi Province), respectively. Carbon isotopes from the studied sections confirm the previously observed carbon cycle perturbations at a time of major paleoceanographic changes in the wake of the end-Permian biotic crisis. This study documents the coincidence between a sharp increase in the carbon isotope composition and the worldwide ammonoid evolutionary turnover (extinction followed by a radiation) occurring around the Smithian-Spathian boundary. Based on recent modeling studies on ammonoid paleobiogeography and taxonomic diversity, we demonstrate that the late Early Triassic (Smithian and Spathian) was a time of a major climate change. More precisely, the end Smithian climate can be characterized by a warm and equable climate underlined by a flat, pole-to-equator, sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, while the steep Spathian SST gradient suggests latitudinally differentiated climatic conditions. Moreover, sedimentary evidence suggests a transition from a humid and hot climate during the Smithian to a dryer climate from the Spathian onwards. By analogy with comparable carbon isotope perturbations in the Late Devonian, Jurassic and Cretaceous we propose that high atmospheric CO(2) levels could have been responsible for the observed carbon cycle disturbance at the Smithian-Spathian boundary. We suggest that the end Smithian ammonoid extinction has been essentially caused by a warm and equable climate related to an increased CO(2) flux possibly originating from a short eruptive event of the Siberian igneous province. This increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentrations could have additionally reduced the marine calcium carbonate oversaturation and weakened the calcification potential of marine organisms, including ammonoids, in late Smithian oceans. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Building adaptive capacity and resilience to climate change in the water sector in Cape Verde

Purpose of the evaluation This is a scheduled standard mid-term evaluation (MTR) of a UNDP implemented GEF LDCF co-financed project. It is conducted by a team of an international and a national independent evaluator. The objective of the MTR, as set out in the Terms of Reference (TORs; Annex 1), is to provide an independent analysis of the progress of the project so far. The MTR aims to:  identify potential project design problems,  assess progress towards the achievement of the project objective and outcomes,  identify and document lessons learned (including lessons that might improve design and implementation of other projects, including UNDP-GEF supported projects), and  make recommendations regarding specific actions that should be taken to improve the project. The MTR is intended to assess signs of project success or failure and identify the necessary changes to be made. The project commenced its implementation in the first half of 2010 with the recruitment of project staff. According to the updated project plan, it is due to close in July 201410 with operations scaling down in December 2013 due to funding limits. Because of a slow implementation start, the mid-term evaluation was delayed to July 201311 The intended target audience of the evaluation are:  The project team and decision makers in the INGRH  The GEF and UNFCCC Operational Focal Points  The project partners and beneficiaries  UNDP in Cape Verde as well as the regional and headquarter (HQ) office levels  The GEF Secretariat.

Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council Final Report 2008.

On April 27, 2007, Iowa Governor Chet Culver signed Senate File 485, a bill related to greenhouse gas emissions. Part of this bill created the Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council (ICCAC), which consists of 23 governor-appointed members from various stakeholder groups, and 4 nonvoting, ex officio members from the General Assembly. ICCAC’s immediate responsibilities included submitting a proposal to the Governor and General Assembly that addresses policies, cost-effective strategies, and multiple scenarios designed to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions. Further, a preliminary report was submitted in January 2008, with a final proposal submitted in December 2008. In the Final Report, the Council presents two scenarios designed to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions by 50% and 90% from a 2005 baseline by the year 2050. For the 50% reduction by 2050, the Council recommends approximately a 1% reduction by 2012 and an 11% reduction by 2020. For the 90% reduction scenario, the Council recommends a 3% reduction by 2012 and a 22% reduction 2020. These interim targets were based on a simple extrapolation assuming a linear rate of reduction between now and 2050. In providing these scenarios for your consideration, ICCAC approved 56 policy options from a large number of possibilities. There are more than enough options to reach the interim and final emission targets in both the 50% and 90% reduction scenarios. Direct costs and cost savings of these policy options were also evaluated with the help of The Center for Climate Strategies, who facilitated the process and provided technical assistance throughout the entire process, and who developed the Iowa Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Forecast in close consultation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) and many Council and Sub-Committee members. About half of the policy options presented in this report will not only reduce GHG emissions but are highly cost-effective and will save Iowans money. Still other options may require significant investment but will create jobs, stimulate energy independence, and advance future regional or federal GHG programs.

Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied. METHODS: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts. KEY RESULTS: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here. CONCLUSIONS: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.