Self-Fulfilling Price Cycles

This paper presents a model of a self-fulfilling price cycle in an asset market. Price oscillates deterministically even though the underlying environment is stationary. The mechanism that we uncover is driven by endogenous variation in the investment horizons of the different market participants, informed and uninformed. On even days, the price is high; on odd days it is low. On even days, informed traders are willing to jettison their good assets, knowing that they can buy them back the next day, when the price is low. The anticipated drop in price more than offsets any potential loss in dividend. Because of these asset sales, the informed build up their cash holdings. Understanding that the market is flooded with good assets, the uninformed traders are willing to pay a high price. But their investment horizon is longer than that of the informed traders: their intention is to hold the assets they purchase, not to resell. On odd days, the price is low because the uninformed recognise that the informed are using their cash holdings to cherry-pick good assets from the market. Now the uninformed, like the informed, are investing short-term. Rather than buy-and-hold as they do with assets purchased on even days, on odd days the uninformed are buying to sell. Notice that, at the root of the model, there lies a credit constraint. Although the informed are flush with cash on odd days, they are not deep pockets. On each cherry that they pick out of the market, they earn a high return: buying cheap, selling dear. However they don't have enough cash to strip the market of cherries and thereby bid the price up.

Contagious Illiquidity I: Contagion through Time

This paper is an investigation into the dynamics of asset markets with adverse selection a la Akerlof (1970). The particular question asked is: can market failure at some later date precipitate market failure at an earlier date? The answer is yes: there can be "contagious illiquidity" from the future back to the present. The mechanism works as follows. If the market is expected to break down in the future, then agents holding assets they know to be lemons (assets with low returns) will be forced to hold them for longer - they cannot quickly resell them. As a result, the effective difference in payoff between a lemon and a good asset is greater. But it is known from the static Akerlof model that the greater the payoff differential between lemons and non-lemons, the more likely is the market to break down. Hence market failure in the future is more likely to lead to market failure today. Conversely, if the market is not anticipated to break down in the future, assets can be readily sold and hence an agent discovering that his or her asset is a lemon can quickly jettison it. In effect, there is little difference in payoff between a lemon and a good asset. The logic of the static Akerlof model then runs the other way: the small payoff differential is unlikely to lead to market breakdown today. The conclusion of the paper is that the nature of today's market - liquid or illiquid - hinges critically on the nature of tomorrow's market, which in turn depends on the next day's, and so on. The tail wags the dog.

Factor Proportions and the Growth of World Trade

Most of the expansion of global trade during the last three decades has been of the North-South kind - between capital-abundant developed and labour-abundant developing countries. Based on this observation, I argue that the recent growth of world trade is best understood from a factor-proportions perspective. I present novel evidence documenting that differences in capital-labour ratios across countries have increased in the wake of two shocks to the global economy: i) the opening up of China and ii) financial globalisation and the resulting upstream capital flows towards capital-abundant regions. I analyse their impact on specialisation and the volume of trade in a dynamic model which combines factor-proportions trade in goods with international trade in financial assets. Calibrating this model, I find that it can account for 60% of world trade growth between 1980 and 2007. It is also capable of predicting international investment patterns which are consistent with the data

Asset Prices, Business Cycles, and Markov-Perfect Fiscal Policy when Agents are Risk-Sensitive

We study a business cycle model in which a benevolent fiscal authority must determine the optimal provision of government services, while lacking credibility, lump-sum taxes, and the ability to bond finance deficits. Households and the fiscal authority have risk sensitive preferences. We find that outcomes are affected importantly by the household's risk sensitivity, but not by the fiscal authority's. Further, while household risk-sensitivity induces a strong precautionary saving motive, which raises capital and lowers the return on assets, its effects on fluctuations and the business cycle are generally small, although more pronounced for negative shocks. Holding the stochastic steady state constant, increases in household risk-sensitivity lower the risk-free rate and raise the return on equity, increasing the equity premium. Finally, although risk-sensitivity has little effect on the provision of government services, it does cause the fiscal authority to lower the income tax rate. An additional contribution of this paper is to present a method for computing Markov-perfect equilibria in models where private agents and the government are risk-sensitive decisionmakers.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Dynamic Copulas

We study the asymmetric and dynamic dependence between financial assets and demonstrate, from the perspective of risk management, the economic significance of dynamic copula models. First, we construct stock and currency portfolios sorted on different characteristics (ex ante beta, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flows), and find substantial evidence of dynamic evolution between the high beta (respectively, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios and the low beta (coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios. Second, using three different dependence measures, we show the presence of asymmetric dependence between these characteristic-sorted portfolios. Third, we use a dynamic copula framework based on Creal et al. (2013) and Patton (2012) to forecast the portfolio Value-at-Risk of long-short (high minus low) equity and FX portfolios. We use several widely used univariate and multivariate VaR models for the purpose of comparison. Backtesting our methodology, we find that the asymmetric dynamic copula models provide more accurate forecasts, in general, and, in particular, perform much better during the recent financial crises, indicating the economic significance of incorporating dynamic and asymmetric dependence in risk management.

Money Cycles

Operating overheads are widespread and lead to concentrated bursts of activity. To transfer resources between active and idle spells, agents demand financial assets. Futures contracts and lotteries are unsuitable, as they have substantial overheads of their own.We show that money – under efficient monetary policy – is a liquid asset that leads to efficient allocations. Under all other policies, agents follow inefficient “money cycle” patterns of saving, activity, and inactivity. Agents spend their money too quickly – a “hot potato effect of inflation”. We show that inflation can stimulate inefficiently high aggregate output.

Limited liability and mechanism design in procurement

In the presence of cost uncertainty, limited liability introduces the possibility of default in procurement with its associated bank-ruptcy costs. When financial soundness is not perfectly observable, we show that incentive compatibility implies that financially less sound contractors are selected with higher probability in any feasible mechanism. Informational rents are associated with unsound financial situations. By selecting the financially weakest contractor, stronger price competition (auctions) may not only increase the probability of default but also expected rents. Thus, weak conditions are suffcient for auctions to be suboptimal. In particular, we show that pooling firms with higher assets may reduce the cost of procurement even when default is costless for the sponsor.

Start-up conditions and the performance of women – and men- controlled businesses in manufacturating industries

Recent research on the economic performance of women-controlled firms suggests that their underperformance may not result from differences in the managerial ability of women as compared to men, but it can be the result of different levels of start-up resources. Using accounting data, this paper examines the effects that selected start-up conditions have on the economic performance observed in a sample of 4450 Spanish manufacturing firms. The results indicate significant differences regarding the initial conditions, showing lower levels of assets and number of employees what have implications on the economic performance of women-controlled firms.

Is the Spanish Inheritance and Gift Tax incompatible with the free movement of workers and capital?: The reasoned opinion of the EU Commission IP/10/513

The aim of my speech is answering to the question if the Spanish Inheritance and Gift Tax is incompatible with the free movement of workers and capital. We are going to pay special attention to the European Commission’s request to Spain to change its Inheritance and Gift Tax provisions for Non-Residents or Assets held abroad. In order to answer to the question mentioned above five points will be explained. At first place I am going to describe the infrengement procedure established in the Article 258 that the EU Commission can follow when a Member State doesn’t comply with Community Law. At second place, we are going to explain what is the content of the EU Commission delivered on 5th of may 2010 regarding the spanish Inheritance and Gift Tax. Then, we will analise what establishes the Community Law regarding the freedom of workers and capital and how they are understood by the EU Court of Justice in similar cases. Finally, we are going to provide possible amendments that Spain could undertake.

Technological innovation in creative clusters. The case of laser in conservation of artworks in Florence

The field of laser application to the restoration and cleaning of cultural assets is amongst the most thriving developments of recent times. Ablative laser technological systems are able to clean and protect inestimable works of art subject to atmospheric agents and degradation over time. This new technology, which has been developing for the last forty year, is now available to restorers and has received a significant success all over Europe. An important contribution in the process of laser innovation has been carried out in Florence by local actors belonging to a creative cluster. The objects of the analysis are the genesis of this innovation in this local Florentine context, and the relationships among the main actors who have contributed in it. The study investigates how culture can play a part in the generation of ideas and innovations, and which are the creative environments that can favour it. In this context, the issue of laser technologies for the restoration of cultural heritage has been analysed as a case study in the various paths taken by the Creative Capacity of the Culture (CCC).

La redimensió de la llibertat civil en l'àmbit de les relacions familiars

La virtualitat de la formulació de la llibertat civil com a principi de l'ordenament civil català és, precisament, que permet projectar-la sobre qualsevol àmbit en el qual el poder de decisió resti en poder dels particulars. Així doncs, el legislador parteix del respecte per a l'autonomia privada com a eina d'autoregulació d'interessos. A Catalunya, el principi de llibertat civil en la regulació de les relacions familiars és més extens que en el Codi Civil, d'acord amb la pròpia tradició jurídica, palesada en tots els textos legals. La llibertat civil té una àmplia projecció en l'organització de les institucions de protecció de la persona. El legislador ha optat per un sistema de familiar, amb la justa intervenció judicial de control (p.ex., la designació voluntària d'òrgans de protecció té caràcter vinculant pel jutge). El principi de llibertat civil es veu enormement enfortit en la futura legislació representada avui per l'encara Avantprojecte de Llei del Llibre segon Codi Civil de Catalunya. L'Avantprojecte també vindrà a reforçar la llibertat dels contraents o cònjuges pel que fa a l'autorregulació de les seves relacions patrimonials intensificant la possibilitat de pactes abdicatius o limitatius dels drets derivats d'una futura ruptura i introduint una regulació al respecte amb atenció als límits que la doctrina i la jurisprudència ha vingut imposant a les experiències pràctiques en aquest àmbit. Les unions estables no es poden sostreure a l'aplicació dels mínims legals: la llibertat de ser només “de fet” pràcticament no existeix. Ens trobem davant una qüestió d'ordre públic perquè és una nova modalitat de família a la que s'ha de dispensar la protecció constitucional (art. 39 CE). La llibertat es limita a escollir entre que el vincle o unió sigui matrimonial o no. L'Avantprojecte incrementa la intervenció de l'Estat: la llibertat es redueix al contingut dels pactes reguladors de la convivència i de la seva crisi.

La réhabilitation psychosociale a l'aube du XXIème siècle: III: Méthode d'évaluation interdisciplinaire et bilan biopsycho-social

During the past 20 years, therapeutic and rehabilitative modalities in the field of psychosocial rehabilitation have been diversified in becoming more specific. We have the possibility to offer individualized rehabilitation programs as well as in the general field of socio-professional goals as in the clinical field according to the patients' needs and personal assets. The content of these programs associates various forms of specialized medical and paramedical services. The indications are established trough a careful assessment. The rehabilitation unit of the University Department of Psychiatry in Lausanne has developed a multidisciplinary assessment method based on the bio-psychosocial integrative model and the vulnerability-stress model in integrating the level of experience of Wood for the analysis of the psychosocial functioning. This results in a structured assessment program, which leads to a multidisciplinary comprehensive assessment (difficulties versus adaptative resources)

The Rise of The Swiss Tax Haven in the Interwar Period: An International Comparison

The history of tax havens during the decades before World War II is still little known. To date, the studies that have focused on the 1920s and 1930s have presented either a very general perspective on the development of tax havens or a narrow national point of view. Based on unpublished historical archives of five countries (Switzerland, Great Britain, Belgium, France, Germany), this paper offers therefore a new comparative appraisal of international tax competition during this period in order to answer the following question: What was the specificity of the Swiss case - already considered a quintessential tax haven at the time - in comparison to other banking centres? The findings of this research study are twofold. First, the 1920s and 1930s appear as something of a golden age of opportunity for avoiding taxation through the relocation of assets. Most of the financial centres granted consistent tax benefits for imported capital, while the limited degree of international cooperation and the usual guarantee of banking secrecy in European countries prevented the taxation of exported assets. Second, within this general environment, the fiscal strategies of a tax haven like Switzerland differed from those of a great financial power like Great Britain. Whereas the Swiss administration readily placed itself at the service of the banking community, British policy was more balanced between the contradictory interests of the Board of Inland Revenue, the Treasury, and the English business circles.

Ant brood function as life preservers during floods.

Social organisms can surmount many ecological challenges by working collectively. An impressive example of such collective behavior occurs when ants physically link together into floating 'rafts' to escape from flooded habitat. However, raft formation may represent a social dilemma, with some positions posing greater individual risks than others. Here, we investigate the position and function of different colony members, and the costs and benefits of this functional geometry in rafts of the floodplain-dwelling ant Formica selysi. By causing groups of ants to raft in the laboratory, we observe that workers are distributed throughout the raft, queens are always in the center, and 100% of brood items are placed on the base. Through a series of experiments, we show that workers and brood are extremely resistant to submersion. Both workers and brood exhibit high survival rates after they have rafted, suggesting that occupying the base of the raft is not as costly as expected. The placement of all brood on the base of one cohesive raft confers several benefits: it preserves colony integrity, takes advantage of brood buoyancy, and increases the proportion of workers that immediately recover after rafting.

Incorporació de criteris d’eficiència en les dissolucions matrimonials a Catalunya: estudi comparatiu amb el dret de familia de l’Estat de Nova York

El règim econòmic matrimonial català i el de l’estat de Nova York presenten un paral·lelisme estructural important ja que tots dos territoris han adoptat el mateix règim econòmic matrimonial, el de separació de béns. No obstant, la seva implementació i la conseqüent pràctica jurisprudencial difereix significativament. El dret de família de l’estat de Nova York, se situa en un context de common law, és a dir, en un sistema judicial que evoluciona ràpidament i s’adapta relativament ràpid a les necessitats d’una realitat social que està en constant evolució. El legislador català, tot i que ha fet esforços a nivell de donar respostes als nous reptes plantejat per la realitat familiar catalana, encara està lluny de fer front a problemes d’aplicació que sovint planteja el règim econòmic matrimonial dels cònjuges catalans. D’altra banda, la realitat social catalana no és significativament diferent a la realitat nord-americana ateses les noves composicions familiars amb famílies monoparentals, fills de diferents matrimonis i una alta proporció de divorcis per matrimoni. D’altra banda, l’estructura patrimonial de les famílies, tant les catalanes com les novaiorqueses també presenten una estructura patrimonial similar formada no només per la residència habitual sinó per patrimoni intangible i per inversions que comencen a meritar durant el matrimoni però que vencen una vegada aquest vincle s’ha dissolt. Ha resultat constructiu, doncs, comparar els règims i extreure lliçons del règim novaiorquès que s’han revelat molt útils per a la nostra pràctica catalana. Així doncs, l’objectiu d’aquest projecte de recerca ha estat estudiar el règim econòmic matrimonial català i el novaiorquès que ha culminat amb la formulació de propostes normatives i de pràctica jurisprudencial que permetran modernitzar i actualitzar l’aplicació del règim econòmic matrimonial català i d’aquesta manera adaptar-lo a la nova realitat social i econòmica de les famílies catalanes.